Jeeper79 said:

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I put in a few sell orders for open. Magically sold all my stuff that kept going down and kept anything that started coming back up. Still my largest single day loss by far and that wont change before close.

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I'm in the same boat. VST went in dry on me this morning.

So China releasing this ai is actually good for the US treasury by rotation into bonds?

WULF should find support soon. Once it does, I'll be looking at the bounce for a potential put trade into the $1's. This was a completed ending diagonal to the upside with reversal target in the $1's anytime before December. Hopefully it doesn't happen all at once, as it means all miners would be getting destroyed. I'd like to have a crack at it.



CORZ is also taking it on the chin, and I've lost faith in any further upside.

CLSK, MARA, RIOT, IREN still have some supports available, but there is not much upside that looks likely now. These are becoming a hard avoid.

WULF continues to dilute their shares with offerings. One of the reasons I was nervous about buying above 3 dollars

Philip J Fry said:

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WULF continues to dilute their shares with offerings. One of the reasons I was nervous about buying above 3 dollars

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All the miners do that. And they only do it in bull markets. Think of how many of them have been adding BTC to their balance sheet. If BTC falls, they fall harder. But they also have debt and share dilutions which makes it even worse.

Good to know. I was watching WULFs balance sheet and hashing costs pretty closely back in the 1.90 range. Train took off without me unfortunately. Hoping for another chance at it.

Ags2013 said:

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At what level are you buying more NVDA? This seems excessive.

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I'm catching falling knives here

I've just spent some significant time listening to the All-In Podcast and they brought up some great points, with respect to the AI race and compute.

The US has first mover (OpenAI) and tons of investing in compute power (NVDA GPU factories). So we can run multiple number of models vs China.

China has deepseek and potential cheaper cost efficient execution on their AI models. They also have thousands more terra watts of power compared to the US. Like 1600 Terra watts vs 9600 in China.

So it's an interesting dichotomy between the two great powers. But the interesting thing I recall is - in times of gold rush, be the one selling shovels. Not digging for gold.

If we have all this money plowed into data centers. They will need power. China can't build as many as fast as we can. And while there might be a costs reset, you still need the dang gpu's. But the power needed to power it is critical.

I'm wondering what the gang's thoughts are on CEG, SMR, etc? I think that might be the play and it goes off what Ranger222's question to deepseek provided -#8 was CEG.

So what's on sale today?

Even with the bloodbath today, do you guys see NVDA as a good long term hold. In which case, this could be a good buying opportunity if taking that approach?

I lost 56% on some NVDA calls. Sold all but 1 so I can have some still left on the table.

Yes. Catching falling knives here and buying nvidia, Powell, and Ge Vernova

Think I'm going to buy some QQQ to take advantage of the dip and hopefully not catch a falling knife with any individual stock. Thoughts?

Stopped on NVDA and CLSK.

Thinking about entering VST soon, Pelosi is rarely wrong

Looking for BLDE $3.75 to go long shares. Target $4.65-$5.25 and stop $3.50

UPST - Hold $60-$62 and we can get aggressive with stop based on your risk trolerance between $58 and $60 looking for $80-$90 target range

Something to be mindful of. In 2000 - tech sold off massively. But many small caps actually made new highs that year before joining the party.

If some sort of major top is in (not saying it is, just an"if"), there CAN be strength in corners of the market.

TSLA - If it makes a new low below $373 range, I won't be looking long again until at least $340 is hit.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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TSM $206-$209 range and you buy it with stop at $202. Then you will sell between $225 and $230 before earnings. If it plays along leading up to it, the Friday or Monday before earnings you will buy Jan 31 or Feb 7 $200, $205, or $210 puts (wont know the best r/r until we get closer, if we get closer) looking for $195 by expiration. Hopefully we can make some money off this last push and then make a lot more money on the reversal while everyone else is looking in the wrong direction.

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$209 was hit.

Zoom out. This is the cycle it is working on completing.



Notice that it is in the 5th wave. Also notice that the 5th wave is not as impulsive, with each move showing heavy volatility and overlap with fourth wave crossing into the territory of the first. That means it's an ending diagonal. I've discussed these a bunch recently. It means bulls are in control but they are failing to move the stock upward with the same force and are unable to stretch it upward before getting slammed back. So zooming in on that..



Not only is the entire 5th wave an ending diagonal, but the (c) wave inside of the 5th wave inside of the larger 5th is setting up as an ending diagonal. I foresaw this yesterday and told you to watch for $205-$209 region and we are here now. The overlap confirms it.



Why does this have me so convicted on both timing and direction? Because when ending diagonals complete they almost always reverse 75%-100% of their structure within the same timeframe that it took them to complete or quicker. For the smaller one, the trendline would have the next move up to $230 complete before earnings. If so, the reversal would take through the first days of February at the very longest, targeting $190-$195.



The larger ED that started back on Aug 5th would take through June and would target $130-$155.



So that's why I say go long here. If it fails to move up one more time, you get stopped for a small loss. But if the thesis plays out, you will gain $20 per share over the next week. And as that final top approaches, we want to position for the end of month reversal by buying puts that would profit handsomely on a reversal to $195, knowing that it could easily stretch lower. But we will want to grab those puts as early as this Friday as earnings volatility will pick up and options will get expensive into next week.

Stay tuned. This still has to go UP one more time before the plan to profit from the downside can be realized.

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Lets go back to January 8th. What was the TSM thesis? It was one more high, and I was looking for $230 "ideally" and why I was very adamant about the stop. What was the reversal target I mentioned once topped?

Quote:

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If so, the reversal would take through the first days of February at the very longest, targeting $190-$195.

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Where is it right now? $189.

No, we didn't get our ideal upside. No, we weren't able to get a high probability setup to catch this reversal. But NOW, we wait for this bottom and the correction of it and THEN we go short looking for next target $130-$155 as mentioned in the original thesis above.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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UPST - Hold $60-$62 and we can get aggressive with stop based on your risk trolerance between $58 and $60 looking for $80-$90 target range

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In

Welp I at least went green enough in a handful of stocks to sell and add some more cash to the on hand pile. It's way down for my portfolio overall as I had a lot of NVDA and was almost breakeven on AMD. I've bought some dips along the way today. I dont think NVDA is going anywhere. Maybe it'll trend below ATHs for a while, but there's too much capital tied into it to just collapse (fingers crossed). I also think if the Chinese actually did what they said (yeah right), then it can be replicated soon and back on track.

Just riding some AAPL up at the moment. Hoping for 240 by end of week.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Looking for BLDE $3.75 to go long shares. Target $4.65-$5.25 and stop $3.50

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Taking the journey with you here at just 200 shares with stops. Been on my watchlist anyways

Yes, Apple has surprised me being up over 8.5 pts so far

giddings_ag_06 said:

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Rolling some of my Academy and cash into Powell. Was a little more exposed in Academy than I probably should be and I'm going to roll the dice on a jump from Powell after today. Was about to add more Dell too, but just went all into Powell instead.

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Same, went heavy in on POWL. I'll look at this sell off as a gift. Earnings around the corner, to Valhalla we ride.

P.S ever notice how POWL tends to rally (more often than not) in the final hour. I expect it to eat some of the daily loss shortly.

UPS and AAPL coming in clutch today

El_duderino said:

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UPS and AAPL coming in clutch today

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and BRK

Spy ready to go…