LMCane said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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If you have been following my SPY charts, the most recent posted Friday after close, then you know where support is and welcome the gift it could provide should it hold. You also know what level breaks the upside potential and makes your butthole pucker. That there happened to be a catalyst that set off the selling is irrelevant. You can't be emotional and reactive when trading. The inherent psychology that seemingly makes you successful at everything else will cause you to fail when trading. You have to know the plan and be willing to take risks when it plays out. And if the plan fails, you have to know how to pivot and be prepared for the alternate scenario.

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is there any reason to believe that over the next ten years-

NVIDIA won't be back up to the high of last friday?

Is there any argument possible that if we buy at 0930 these companies won't eventually reach back to last week's price in the next decade?

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If that's the plan you want to trade on, go for it.

Pre-market, biggest single day loss of my life. Hoping that's not the case at the end of the day. A few puts and CCs should make it look slightly better at the open.

Decent article that seems 95% correct, enough for a layman to understand. Enough to understand the HOW behind the DeepSeek win. Completely different approach.

If quality maintains and cost figures are accurate, it won't be as transformative, but will be much cheaper and sufficient for 90%+ of practical application.

https://medium.com/@anixlynch/tech-wise-how-deepseek-beat-openai-with-just-5-of-their-budget-6aa30bbe8677

Come on POWL, quit being a little *****.

POWL $190 is what I want to see.

Interesting read that helps explain how the recent OpenAI projects aren't as impressive as the initial DeepSeek results :

https://open.substack.com/pub/thealgorithmicbridge/p/this-rumor-about-gpt-5-changes-everything?r=27mikr&utm_medium=ios

Its highly possible DeepSeek is pushing an inferior overall product with high maintenance costs.

TNA

Even if it's cheaper to train, the arms race will go on and they'll still be spending massive amounts of capital to be the leading edge model. This is a winner take all market, and you have to spend spend spend to keep out of second place.

Bought March $50 VIX calls last week as a crash hedge for 22 cents. I like to keep a couple lotto size plays like this when the market is super extended. I just went net free on them this morning. So now I have risk free downside protection should something crazy happen over the next two months.

SPY - Bounced of 61.8% support in my box. If that low can't hold, things could get interesting, but $583 area can be last resort support. I took the alt count off that showed $570 range hitting for a wider wave (iv), but that's now back in play.

I'm going in big SPY $600 2/28 calls.

POWL, below $256 can leak down to $220.

XLU $75.50 - $76 range would be nice to start a long position should it hold. Could then layer in more if move up looks constructive. Stop is Jan 13 low $73.80 range.

Bought a couple avgo calls. Weeklies and junes. In nancy we trust

TSM - Broke ultimate support. Probability of top being in has increased. Next support is $188. Will be looking for a setup for the bearish trade to $135-$150 range.

AAPL is green

Dan Scott said:

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AAPL is green

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META has recovered $35 off its low.

NVDA broke the more immediately bullish setup with the new low. My alternate is now primary showing that as a wider 4th wave, but it's not the most reliable since the last move of a correction - the c wave (labeled here as (c) - did not complete 5-waves down (at least yet). When the c wave only bottoms in 3 waves, it is possible and that type of correction is called a "double three" Double Three and Triple Three Patterns in the Elliott Wave Analysis | FBS. But you can really only be sure that a double three exists once you have confirmation of reversal, which we don't yet have. So this could still leak down to the 61.8% retracement zone around $118 which would form a more ideal bottom. Still, the probabilities of new highs are going in the wrong direction, even if I can fashion a count. Below $118, and the orange count on this chart becomes a possibility showing the top as in and would lead to the $90-$100 range anytime before mid summer.

Long story short, I need more clarity on NVDA. There's just too many possibilities, and the easiest path with the most confidence is gone. Remember, I'm not saying that it can't just completely recover and bust to new highs. I'm saying that as a trade, I don't have anything telling me a likely next target, whether up or down. Because of that, I have to be cautious, not aggressive. I'm not in the business of trading on faith. In that sense, you really don't have a plan and are just gambling and hoping for the best. When the probabilities move against me, I have to pivot.

As far as my shares. It obviously opened well below my stop. So what do you do when that happens? Let yourself get stopped? Well.. you could. That was supposed to the level you were no longer willing to be wrong and that you determined the risk was too much to stay long. Me personally, I've moved my stop to $118. I'm willing to accept a little more risk while this attempts clarity, especially since there are still supports. I don't feel great about it, but it is what it is. Should NVDA recover, I can adjust my stop upward. Below $118 and it moves into the avoid category. Because the ultimate risk isn't that it might have topped short term. It's that it might have topped long term.

I put in a few sell orders for open. Magically sold all my stuff that kept going down and kept anything that started coming back up. Still my largest single day loss by far and that wont change before close.

Why is nat gas being affected? Some of the energy stocks I have are tanking, but because of the AI stuff?

At what level are you buying more NVDA? This seems excessive.

Not sure if it's partially tied to overall market sentiment today, but energy has also been selling off since Trump was sworn into office. Trump's going to attempt to put pressure on oil prices, so could be tough on the energy sector for a while.

We're ove halfway through winter and Trump is going to open up LNG exports which will expand supply. Has nothing to do with deepseek.

Hell, you could argue that none of this has anything to do with deepseek. Remember, BOJ just raised rates on Friday. The last time they did that we had the Aug 5th selloff as investors who were short JPY (think of it as a loan where they then funnel the proceeds into American equities and treasuries) had to cover potential M2M losses by selling liquid positions in US equities and bonds.

Try to avoid the narratives. You can concoct any reason you want for why something is happening. It will not help you make better decisions and will only trap you in a box. Focus on the plan you had for each position, support, and resistance.