TSM held above stop $202. That low needs to hold for the short term upside shares and for the rest of the thesis to take hold.
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Last: 8 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
txaggie_08 said:
Back around mid-September before the Fed began cutting rates. As soon as the Fed cut the Yield started heading back up.
I'm not a smart man, shouldn't the yield rates follow the Fed rates?
If people believe they can stay there long term.
I was actually wondering if Heineken may go more in-depth on his thoughts. He has mentioned before that the Fed usually follows the treasury yield; which was happening up until September. The 10-year had been on a downward trend leading up to the Fed meeting, the Fed cuts, and then the 10-year reverses course and heads back up while the Fed still continued to cut through December.Definitely Not A Cop said:txaggie_08 said:
Back around mid-September before the Fed began cutting rates. As soon as the Fed cut the Yield started heading back up.
I'm not a smart man, shouldn't the yield rates follow the Fed rates?
I under the 10-year going up due to concerns about inflation and whatnot, but I'm wondering what this means the Fed may do. Are they going to follow rates, or is it a necessity to hold/continue cuts becuase of the Federal debt service? They've mentioned they're planning less cuts this year because of potential Trump policy and inflation concerns, but haven't necessarily spoke up hollding or raising rates again.
so a couple of things going on. AMD is making GPUs that can be used for AI, but NVIDIA did a really good job in the past of developing a full eco system which is more than just the GPUs. The can sell a full system with the server/compute white boxes, networking with Mellanox, but most importantly is the software stack CUDA that pretty much the entire programming community has embraced and learned to interoperate with the GPUs that do machine learning.Definitely Not A Cop said:RoyVal said:AMD might have a tough 2025. They are so far behind in AI and doing a horrible job of executing right now. Unfortunately I'm still holding and down right now, but selling monthly calls to help dig out of the hole. I'm hoping it can hold and even recover a little bit in the next 3-6 months. I just need them to grab a little bit of market share to show some growth and hopefully the stock moves for meEliteZags said:
anyone entering AMD <120 here
Not versed in this; are you meaning there are specialized chips for AI that AMD isn't producing yet? If so, is the demand for these really that much of a market shaker that if you aren't making chips that can handle AI, your business is falling behind?
AMD kinda tried to go their own route...but now I believe some of the newer GPUs can also use CUDA, but again, they don't have a full ecosystem. (I'm way over simplifying this but this is pretty much the net/net of the current market for AMD and AI).
Everybody, and I mean EVERYBODY has a attached themselves with NVIDIA for AI. Think Dell selling their servers and networking...but including NVIDIA GPUS, etc. EVERYBODY is a 'partner' with Nvidia...not so much with AMD.
And the demand for these systems, even more so than just the GPUs (although the GPUs are driving the lion share of the revenue) represent the huge revenue growth.
AMD just isn't executing on selling their products, developing their systems....and basically going into a lot of customers and saying "use my GPUs because they are less expensive" without any more meat and potatoes.
I'm not a smart man either...but should the Fed follow treasury rates, oh boy! I don't even wanna know what the markets would do in that reversing course scenario...I believe he has said they are boxed in and not a whole lot they can do...I think they would be wise to hold for a good while, meaning 6-9 months until things might be more clear...lower would be foolish, but raising would just be insane to me, honestly...after what they've already done of course...txaggie_08 said:I was actually wondering if Heineken may go more in-depth on his thoughts. He has mentioned before that the Fed usually follows the treasury yield; which was happening up until September. The 10-year had been on a downward trend leading up to the Fed meeting, the Fed cuts, and then the 10-year reverses course and heads back up while the Fed still continued to cut through December.Definitely Not A Cop said:txaggie_08 said:
Back around mid-September before the Fed began cutting rates. As soon as the Fed cut the Yield started heading back up.
I'm not a smart man, shouldn't the yield rates follow the Fed rates?
I under the 10-year going up due to concerns about inflation and whatnot, but I'm wondering what this means the Fed may do. Are they going to follow rates, or is it a necessity to hold/continue cuts becuase of the Federal debt service? They've mentioned they're planning less cuts this year because of potential Trump policy and inflation concerns, but haven't necessarily spoke up hollding or raising rates again.
Yah, if you can leave the money parked for a year or two there are probably some nice returns to be made on longer-duration. My remaining MM funds are down to 4.3% yield and I may move most of that over to treasuries in the coming weeks if rates continue to go up.EnronAg said:no kidding...even though I don't believe those numbers...rates are ripping again...about to pull trigger on TLT today, I thinkAg CPA said:
I can't stand the "good news is bad news" market, drives me nuts.
Over the past year I've shifted a good amount of my money market funds to Blackstone's secured lending fund $BXSL. ~10% yield or so, 98% first lien debt, weighted average 3.1 year maturity on that debt. I wanted to keep some upside in the market versus holding treasuries and long duration bonds. I believe yields continue to climb.
https://www.bxsl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/2024/12/BXSL-3Q24-Investor-Presentation_vFinal.pdf
https://www.bxsl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/2024/12/BXSL-3Q24-Investor-Presentation_vFinal.pdf
I wish it was easier to search past posts. Maybe search my username for "FED follows the market".txaggie_08 said:I was actually wondering if Heineken may go more in-depth on his thoughts. He has mentioned before that the Fed usually follows the treasury yield; which was happening up until September. The 10-year had been on a downward trend leading up to the Fed meeting, the Fed cuts, and then the 10-year reverses course and heads back up while the Fed still continued to cut through December.Definitely Not A Cop said:txaggie_08 said:
Back around mid-September before the Fed began cutting rates. As soon as the Fed cut the Yield started heading back up.
I'm not a smart man, shouldn't the yield rates follow the Fed rates?
I under the 10-year going up due to concerns about inflation and whatnot, but I'm wondering what this means the Fed may do. Are they going to follow rates, or is it a necessity to hold/continue cuts becuase of the Federal debt service? They've mentioned they're planning less cuts this year because of potential Trump policy and inflation concerns, but haven't necessarily spoke up hollding or raising rates again.
Yes, a historical study shows that the FED lags the market by 3-6 months on average. The only times they deviate from that are emergency scenarios where they slash rates like GFC and COVID. If the September rate cut with bond yields reversing literally the day before, and the "inflation is transitory" wasn't enough proof that the FED is reactionary, I don't know what more I can do to convince you. They cut rates that had already been falling most of the year in September. The gap between FEDFUNDS and bond yields was wide. It's not that cut that was painful, it was the next one in the face of the bond market going back up. Now they are behind the curve again. They never truly moved rates to a point where they were restrictive which would have been 6% or higher. Why? Because they couldn't. And now they can't lower significantly, but raising significantly back to where the dropped from would be the red flag of all red flags. Stuck is where they are. And they need the bond market to play nice for probably a year while sitting on there ass for any hope of saving face. Stop paying attention to them. They work for the banks and only for the banks. Follow the bond market. They are ones telling you whether US debt obligations are in demand, or if the US will be required to pay significantly more to monetize our debt and deficit.
That dividend is crazy man!Chef Elko said:
Over the past year I've shifted a good amount of my money market funds to Blackstone's secured lending fund $BXSL. ~10% yield or so, 98% first lien debt, weighted average 3.1 year maturity on that debt. I wanted to keep some upside in the market versus holding treasuries and long duration bonds. I believe yields continue to climb.
https://www.bxsl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/2024/12/BXSL-3Q24-Investor-Presentation_vFinal.pdf
BLDE is ready for a buy again between $3.35 and $3.65. Target $6 - $6.50 by June, if not sooner. Calls are not cheap right now, so I can't generate more than 2x at best, and I would want more returns on May or June timeframes, but the move up should be an a-b-c, so I might wait for the a and the b to see if calls are worth it then. Stop is $3. Wish it were higher, but such is life.
NVDA $131-$133 is the buy area with stop anywhere from $126-$129 based on your risk tolerance. Could even buy in today if you want to assume more risk. Targeting $165.
A little bit of a gamble, but IWM might V-shape recover today or Monday and be back at $227 by Jan expiration. Buying IWM $222 Jan 21 calls looking for 2-3x. All or nothing.
I'm trying to find bullish setups guys. But the reality is that we're in a short gamma regime, meaning selling pressure picks up with each move down and doesn't dissipate with moves up until we start breaking some resistance. All the EMA's are above on the indexes and mostly upside down. That has to correct before bullishness returns. I warned many times about what happens when everyone moves to the same side of the boat. It tends to tip in the opposite direction until balance can be found. That means upside plays should have tight stops. There are many stocks looking like they have topped in longer term structure. Some look to have upside. I still like the tech stuff for the next week or two at least. But those can fail too. Tread carefully.
Definitely Not A Cop said:txaggie_08 said:
Back around mid-September before the Fed began cutting rates. As soon as the Fed cut the Yield started heading back up.
I'm not a smart man, shouldn't the yield rates follow the Fed rates?
Not necessarily.
Two things - First, if inflation expectations are on the rise, this can cause an increase in yields.
Second, this is possibly an inflection point where the fed gov debt is too much. Investors are demanding a higher yield for their investment based on the perceived ability for the US to pay the funds back. It doesn't matter what the Fed does to the rate at some point.
If NEE moves any lower than $65.75 I'm bailing. Right now it has a reverse H&S going on, but the retracement from the previous high would be too deep for me to maintain bullishness should it drop much more.
TSLA getting tight. Picking up some 1/31 $410 calls
Heineken-Ashi said:
If NEE moves any lower than $65.75 I'm bailing. Right now it has a reverse H&S going on, but the retracement from the previous high would be too deep for me to maintain bullishness should it drop much more.
Thanks, I put a stop in at 65.9
Picking up NKE here with stop at 71. Could set it as low as 67 but Im hoping to pick the bottom here and ride back up to 79+.
bought back into LCID around $3 avg. I've been short term swinging it, small name, but it's been super strong the last couple weeks (and in a nice uptrend w/ lots of volume).
I'm still waiting on $60. MACD is threatening a new low below November level and price already has a new low. There's no positive divergence that I would want to go long yet.AgPT06 said:
Picking up NKE here with stop at 71. Could set it as low as 67 but Im hoping to pick the bottom here and ride back up to 79+.
yeah I think Nike is going to sub 70 before bounce
what is going on with BUD? it's down to support back from Oct 23
I'm tempted to start a position at this level
I'm tempted to start a position at this level
I got stopped out but entry was higher (230's). It looks fairly strong since today's low - you could place your stop there, tight (221). There is a big gap though back to about 185 and the 50 day is back at 202.BucketofBalls99 said:
Anyone in AVGO? Just curious on the support and resistance
I think I'd take POWL down here before AVGO. POWL is near major support, 220ish. It bounced roughly there.
Thanks. Appreciate the education on the MACD.
Glad I got out of STZ last year. But now I'm wondering about getting in on the low.
7nine
I think you've mentioned that the bond market has been hinting at this for a bit.Heineken-Ashi said:
I'm trying to find bullish setups guys. But the reality is that we're in a short gamma regime, meaning selling pressure picks up with each move down and doesn't dissipate with moves up until we start breaking some resistance. All the EMA's are above on the indexes and mostly upside down. That has to correct before bullishness returns. I warned many times about what happens when everyone moves to the same side of the boat. It tends to tip in the opposite direction until balance can be found. That means upside plays should have tight stops. There are many stocks looking like they have topped in longer term structure. Some look to have upside. I still like the tech stuff for the next week or two at least. But those can fail too. Tread carefully.
10-2 Yr spreads hitting levels not seen since mid-2022. Lots of near tern uncertainty out there
Heineken-Ashi said:I'm still waiting on $60. MACD is threatening a new low below November level and price already has a new low. There's no positive divergence that I would want to go long yet.AgPT06 said:
Picking up NKE here with stop at 71. Could set it as low as 67 but Im hoping to pick the bottom here and ride back up to 79+.
Rumor has it, NKE is a bit of a mess. I bought puts over summer anticipating Q1 ER would be awful and it was. Only problem they announced new CEO right before ER which gave them a big jump before the dump. I am 4 years removed at this point. I think they'll come around but I also think it'll go lower before higher.
I bought some $290 June calls a month ago after its' last swoon. Looks like I was just a bit too early.Texaggie7nine said:
Glad I got out of STZ last year. But now I'm wondering about getting in on the low.
Sometimes, bargain-hunting doesn't pay (and breaking my old value-investor habits is tough).
Yeah I thought I would share with rates and bonds being a big discussion topic today
Chef Elko said:
Over the past year I've shifted a good amount of my money market funds to Blackstone's secured lending fund $BXSL. ~10% yield or so, 98% first lien debt, weighted average 3.1 year maturity on that debt. I wanted to keep some upside in the market versus holding treasuries and long duration bonds. I believe yields continue to climb.
https://www.bxsl.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/2024/12/BXSL-3Q24-Investor-Presentation_vFinal.pdf
NAV is at $27.27, when did you originally get in? I currently got a bunch of cash sitting in VMFXX, but this is looking appetizing.
Any guesses as to what kind of day tomorrow will be? Or what kind of week this week will be?
Insert clubber_lang_pain.gif
Joking? Or serious?
To me SPY broke support, could fill that gap down to 574 quickly. Then range from there.
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