My PLTR position trying it's damndest to out earn my income this year

Port strike over.

Green tomorrow.

I hope to God you permabulls still remember how to short on the way down.

BucketofBalls99 said:

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PLTR - anyone else seeing a possible pullback around mid month (Oct) or so? I was talking to a buddy who thinks it may go to $42ish before then. If so, he's going to sell and then he expects a pullback to around $30, at which point he will buy back in.

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I called the top months ago and was wrong. I still believe it's in a topping process. I'm scared to make a call again because calling tops puts your nuts on the line to get rung out. And you potentially mislead people. And you often end up wrong, as history seems to also show that things can extend far more than logic, fundamentals, or even market sentiment which I fully subscribe to seem to suggest.

What I would say is don't go initiating any new speculative trades based on thinking a top is in. If you own, don't plan to own longer term, won't kick yourself if its $100 in 5 years, and want to make sure you maximize your profit, then sell it. Or sell calls. Or buy puts. Maybe sell longer dated puts at price you'd be willing to jump back in.. say $30 (haven't looked up if the premium is even worth much there). But barring a cataclysmic event, you will have notice that a top is potentially in. And you will even have a last chance to get out when the first move attempts to retrace back up. You don't need to perfectly time the top in "most cases".

What was your target when you bought? What was your goal? If those have been met, then remove your risk. If they haven't, then what more do you need? What lower price makes you kick yourself for being stupid? Answer all of those questions and form a plan. But don't trade based on predicting a top. It will kill you 9 times out of 10.

PLTR - all notes on chart.



The thing I keep coming back to on PLTR is that it isn't moving into its higher ranges in truly impulsive fashion. What I mean, is that the lows of the each range for the past year are dipping into the highs and mids of the previous range. This is not indicative of a stock that is going explode up higher. Compare this year to the explosion upward in 2023 where every low held above a previous high. When you get to the part where waves, or ranges, or periods, or whatever you want to call them start to overlap, that usually points to exhaustion of trend. It doesn't mean it's going to end immediately. But it tells you that with each move bulls are having to fight harder to move less distance and are having a harder time keeping bears from pulling it back. Eventually, bulls run out of steam until bears get theirs. And we have negative divergence on the top line showing that an end is near. Like I said on my divergence post a week or two ago, divergence doesn't predict exact timing. But it does tell you something is coming. I don't think PLTR is quite there. It probably has another move up or two. Could be slight, could be large. But it's running out of room to the upside, bulls are running out of ammo, and fundamental valuation is getting extreme. When the bears finally win, they will retrace this to somewhere between 38.2% and 61.8% of the entire move up off the low, usually between 1/2 the time to the full time that it took the move up to complete from bottom to top. That range is $15-$20 and will mark the next generational buying opportunity for this stock where the next 5-10 years takes its north of $100.

If you are long term hold, then hold. Only sell if it gets below 61.8% retracement level in log mode, as below that and long term shifts from impulsive potential to longer drawn out choppy up and down with lower terminal target.. at best.. and at worst its open to straight up not performing at all. If you can't stomach a $15-$25 drop, then wait for an initial move down like it had on Aug 5th. Notice how that one didn't make a new low below the green trendline. You will know it's over when the trendline breaks and RSI makes a lower low below the yellow line. But you will then get a retracement 38%-100% upward of that initial move down. That is the area you sell before the final down wave. That process could take years. And could take patience. If you don't think you can sit through that, then layer on protection in the form of puts or sell out now.

In on ZIM. Stop just below $15.75. Target $37.

Edit. Lowering target to $33. Would need an extension to get to $37 which is certainly possible (compares this chart to PLTR earlier this year.

SLV broke through 29.50 resistance

Exxon on the verge of a new 52 wk high