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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to FishrCoAg • 12:19p, 9/18/24
But people aren't buying from each other. They are buying from a dealer who is hedging their risk completely with buying and selling of shares and only profiting on the spreads between the bid and ask. It's crucial to understand that.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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FishrCoAg
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 12:22p, 9/18/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
But people aren't buying from each other. They are buying from a dealer who is hedging their risk completely with buying and selling of shares and only profiting on the spreads between the bid and ask. It's crucial to understand that.


And your post above helped me with that. It's not unlike Vegas wanting equal play on both sides of the lines they set. They don't need to predict the final score, just the number that draws balanced play
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to FishrCoAg • 12:31p, 9/18/24
FishrCoAg said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
But people aren't buying from each other. They are buying from a dealer who is hedging their risk completely with buying and selling of shares and only profiting on the spreads between the bid and ask. It's crucial to understand that.


And your post above helped me with that. It's not unlike Vegas wanting equal play on both sides of the lines they set. They don't need to predict the final score, just the number that draws balanced play
Exactly. But unlike Vegas, the dealer doesn't care if you win or lose and aren't playing against you. Their goal is complete neutrality with their profit merely on the spreads. The Vegas house holds the odds. In options, the dealer aims for 1:1.

What gets really interesting is when you have gamma squeezes, as the dealers likely get out positioned with quick moves in the market and have to rush to force neutrality. This is what can send things rocketing up and down very quickly. You might think everyone is pressing the buy button. In reality, it's likely mostly dealer hedging.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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M4 Benelli
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12:37p, 9/18/24
I went all cash on Heini's/Prog's forecasts. Market is at peak, FOMC, Middle East B.S, U.S Political drama, Etc
Where's the upside? I'll stay idle until a play makes me salivate. Beats playing being a salmon swimming upstream.

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EliteZags
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In reply to M4 Benelli • 12:50p, 9/18/24
AG
same, but opposite

0.5% cash

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Brian Earl Spilner
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12:53p, 9/18/24
AG
Pretty much down the middle for me.

Roth is currently 50% cash, all of that on the limit buys I posted earlier.

If we rocket right off the bat, at least I can ride it up with half of my account and maybe hit my targets.

If we crash, will have a lot of new shares.

If we crash, THEN rocket...I could have a hell of a great week.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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1:00p, 9/18/24
AG
Aaaand, first target hit. TNA.
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txaggie_08
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1:01p, 9/18/24
AG
Half point cut. Here we go.
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EliteZags
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1:01p, 9/18/24
AG
LLLFFFFFFGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
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Heineken-Ashi
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1:01p, 9/18/24
Just sold half my IWM call hedges for net free + profit.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Ragoo
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1:02p, 9/18/24
AG
First move wrong move?
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CC09LawAg
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1:02p, 9/18/24
Well, sold my POWL 190s for Friday for a tidy 2x profit
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BayAg_14
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1:05p, 9/18/24
50 basis point cut. Here we go.
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Heineken-Ashi
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1:07p, 9/18/24
SLV rocket. I plan to be out of Sep 20 calls above $29. Will leave additional upside for later dated, and we would be in need of a corrective pullback / still at risk for a sizeable drop.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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txaggie_08
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In reply to Ragoo • 1:08p, 9/18/24
AG
His PC in about 25 minutes will dictate the final move. I'm sure he may have some not-so-good things to say as to what led them to 50 basis points instead of 25.
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SF2004
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1:18p, 9/18/24
AG
Careful up here.

Rate cuts are historically not good for the market.

Also the FED raised rates quickly get get inflation down but now they are making huge cuts.

If you are investing just keep DCA but if you are trading MANAGE RISK!
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CC09LawAg
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1:28p, 9/18/24
Could this be the catalyst to make the shorts cover on POWL? I was looking at $183.50 as an important level to clear. If it can hold that and the market doesn't crater the next day or two, could be interesting.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to CC09LawAg • 1:29p, 9/18/24
CC09LawAg said:
Could this be the catalyst to make the shorts cover on POWL? I was looking at $183.50 as an important level to clear. If it can hold that and the market doesn't crater the next day or two, could be interesting.
Beautiful 5-waves up off the low. I don't fully trust it as bullish as the larger structure is overlapping and ugly, but you can effectively place a stop at $160 right now as below that and bullishness wanes significantly.

In fact, it's potentially forming a smaller degree H&S with the July high to go along with the larger degree H&S dating back to March. Would be cautious.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 1:32p, 9/18/24
It is definitely breaking its "usual" pattern so I'm not trusting anything here.

I got in some October 220 calls relatively cheap on this runup so I'm going to set my stop and see where this thing goes.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 1:44p, 9/18/24
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
HoustonAg2014 said:
I'm guessing .25 BP then we tank then we rocket. But you may fade me.
My limit orders would like this.

Buy orders:
TNA: 42.50, 41.50, 40, 38.25
TQQQ: 65, 63, 60
SOXL: 30, 28

Targets:
TNA: 45
TQQQ: 69
SOXL: 35
Update:

Exited all existing positions (TNA 45, TQQ 67.62, SOXL 33.06), took a $1300 profit.

Kept my existing buy orders, added the following limit buys:

TNA: 43.50 (already executed)
TQQQ: 66
SOXL: 31.50

And added shares to those lower limits.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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1:47p, 9/18/24
AG
Pretty much sticking to long-term positions on my larger brokerage account (except for my remaining SMCI shares).

Bought some SOXQ and ISCG in there, long. Not all my cash, but some.
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Heineken-Ashi
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2:00p, 9/18/24
No guarantees for any higher on SLV by Friday close. I'd like $29, but enough is in place to start a retracement before the next move. If you have any risk on Sep calls and are sweating, take some off now and live to fight another day.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Brewmaster
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2:14p, 9/18/24
AG
I'm 100% cash. Last trade was MARA and CLSK scalp on a pop. Now we get a real September pull back. Most bearish month of the year right?
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txaggie_08
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2:16p, 9/18/24
AG
We going to end red on the day?
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to txaggie_08 • 2:29p, 9/18/24
If we do and gap up tomorrow, it's going to be fun to watch!
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to CC09LawAg • 2:36p, 9/18/24
CC09LawAg said:
If we do and gap up tomorrow, it's going to be fun to watch!
For a little while. And I wouldn't want to be trying to time my exits. That would put us firmly on the 2007 post FED rate cut schedule.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 2:44p, 9/18/24
Oh yeah, I fully expect SHTF territory soon, I've come to terms with it. Going to enjoy the run up for what it is and sit on the sidelines. I don't have the confidence to trade the environment that I think is coming.
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spud1910
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In reply to CC09LawAg • 3:19p, 9/18/24
AG
Yeah, I am over 50% cash in trading account now. And most of what is not cash is in CORZ.
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Diggity
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In reply to spud1910 • 3:21p, 9/18/24
AG
seems like a prudent and conservative strategy
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Talon2DSO
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 3:25p, 9/18/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
No guarantees for any higher on SLV by Friday close. I'd like $29, but enough is in place to start a retracement before the next move. If you have any risk on Sep calls and are sweating, take some off now and live to fight another day.


I've got $26p expiring Oct
27.50c expiring in Nov
$40c expiring in Jan 2025

Next few days will be fun to watch
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Talon2DSO • 3:45p, 9/18/24
Talon2DSO said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
No guarantees for any higher on SLV by Friday close. I'd like $29, but enough is in place to start a retracement before the next move. If you have any risk on Sep calls and are sweating, take some off now and live to fight another day.


I've got $26p expiring Oct
27.50c expiring in Nov
$40c expiring in Jan 2025

Next few days will be fun to watch
Ya, you're firmly in the sit and wait for fireworks crowd, with the ability to profit from short term downside and long term upside.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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ProgN
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In reply to M4 Benelli • 3:57p, 9/18/24
M4 Benelli said:
I went all cash on Heini's/Prog's forecasts. Market is at peak, FOMC, Middle East B.S, U.S Political drama, Etc
Where's the upside? I'll stay idle until a play makes me salivate. Beats playing being a salmon swimming upstream.


I'd also ask what's the catalyst that propels the markets higher. Today's reversal after the huge spike when the rate cut was announced shouldn't be discounted. It might have been the blowoff top. I'm not definitively saying it was, but we should know over the next few trading sessions. Jmo, but what do the charts tell you?
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aggies4life
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4:54p, 9/18/24
AG
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Quacked
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 5:00p, 9/18/24
Went mostly cash today.

Holding small % POWL

Medium % of my AMD TSLA

All of my APPL,MSFT, CELH all long terms 7 years except celh which is 5 years, buy more hopefully.


SMCI, NEWP don't wanna let them go yet.


Tough to do, we shall see how it goes.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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10:32p, 9/18/24
AG
Futures looking green as hell.
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