You make a good point and it's scary to think what's currently happening. Government powers are only increasing.

Government programs like the IRA/Build Back Better etc. are being used to directly or indirectly employ millions of people. If 50% of voters end up being employed directly/indirectly by the government, the masses will vote to increase governmental powers. We are walking a very fine line here.

The government spending component of the US GDP calculation is massively increasing so how much of this "growth" is attributed to spending deficits? Capitalism is being killed under the guise of bringing back American jobs, which will essentially be government jobs. I guess my rant is done, back to trading and more short term thoughts.

Chef Elko said:

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You make a good point and it's scary to think what's currently happening. Government powers are only increasing.

Government programs like the IRA/Build Back Better etc. are being used to directly or indirectly employ millions of people. If 50% of voters end up being employed directly/indirectly by the government, the masses will vote to increase governmental powers. We are walking a very fine line here.

The government spending component of the US GDP calculation is massively increasing so how much of this "growth" is attributed to spending deficits? Capitalism is being killed under the guise of bringing back American jobs, which will essentially be government jobs. I guess my rant is done, back to trading and more short term thoughts.

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Dave Freedberg has been beating this drum on the All-In podcast. There is an overwhelming majority of people who derive their income either directly as employees of the government or by being awarded government contracts. The design is such to keep the majority of Americans invested in an ever growing government.

I'm in Louisville through Sunday. We're hitting as many distilleries as we can. Someone give me some recommendations for things we need to do or see.

IWM puts initiated yesterday are likely dead unless tomorrow is bloodbath. Immediate downside setup failed. But I'm not bullish yet. It has a lot to prove. I will reiterate what I said earlier today. We have a week until FOMC and rate cuts. After tomorrow, I expect mostly rangebound while the market waits. If you are going to go aggressively long on something, please know your failure point. And if you are going to short, do see with defined risk and stops. That's why I'm I'm shorting via IWM puts. It's the weakest index and it's still setup for puke, even if it goes a bit higher. With puts, my premium is my risk.

SLV - today was a green moon rocket. I'm bullish, but not initiating anything new. I have SEP $25.5, $26, $27, $28, and $30. Oct $27. Nov $28. Jan $28, $30, and $35. And September and October $24 puts as a hedge. We should get a pullback following today. Want to see it hold $26.50. If so, can see $28-$29 next week. We're at the point where I can't guarantee there will be another gentlemen's entry. There have been so many chances. If you do get another one, I will advise what to buy.. likely Nov or Dec ATM calls.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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E said:

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So putting SLV September calls in football terms...

We got the miracle 3rd down conversion after the bad snap. Were then able to move the ball a few yards on a short out but failed to score TD in the next two passing attempts.

4th down, 3 seconds on the clock, and need to kick a game winning field goal to salvage option.

Does SLV have Justin Tucker or Ray Finkle kicking next week?

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Nah. I'd say, we're on the 25. 2nd and 5. Are going to smoke draw up the middle and potentially stall out? Or are we going for the deep fade in the end zone?

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Looks like we got Tom Brady as our QB

I reduced all of my September SLV calls to at least net free positions. Many of them firmly profitable. Some booked big profits. Oct $27's I sold half at 200%, firmly in the green. Not touching Novembers or later yet unless the positions get to 150% return or higher at which point I might sell 25-50%.

Congrats to anyone patient on SLV or who added during these months of correction/consolidation. It's a great day to reduce exposure or take some profits. Don't give it a chance to get you in a hole.

Thanks for your insight, feedback, and suggesting this play!

Feels like there is a tractor beam to $40 for PLTR

Heineken-Ashi said:

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I reduced all of my September SLV calls to at least net free positions. Many of them firmly profitable. Some booked big profits. Oct $27's I sold half at 200%, firmly in the green. Not touching Novembers or later yet unless the positions get to 150% return or higher at which point I might sell 25-50%.

Congrats to anyone patient on SLV or who added during these months of correction/consolidation. It's a great day to reduce exposure or take some profits. Don't give it a chance to get you in a hole.

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Sold 1/2 of my SLV shares yesterday and all of my ALB the day before. My SLV investment was my largest single holding ever and I needed to take a break.

Hey gang, this is my own personal opinion but here is what I think will happen next week. Like always, make your own decisions.

The market (SPX) has shot up from 5400 to over 5600 this week because of NVDA's comments, but mostly because the market now expects a 50 basis point rate cut next week. Here's why I don't think we get 50, but will get 25 bp, even though the Fed has the data to justify a 50 bp cut.

1) Powell doesn't want to appear political and trying to influence the election
2) Powell likes being Fed Chairman so why would he gamble and be seen as helping one side of the aisle
3) If he cuts 50 bp, and Trump were to win, then he knows that he'll probably not be Fed Chairman when his term ends because Trump does hold a grudge.
4) I believe he regrets not cutting 25 bp at the last meeting and then not cutting again next week, but the bond market and the EU forced his hand.
5) If the market doesn't get 50 bp cut, then expect a selloff because WS is infested with pissy *****es.
6) Heini and I both think we probably selloff anyway, regardless if it's 25 or 50, especially with this sharp reversal on expectations. Think sell the news type scenario.

With that said, I'm not selling any SMCI (because I'm way underwater). POWL, or any of my other positions that I've posted. I will weather the storm. This post isn't gospel, it's just my opinion and thought you all deserve to know what I'm thinking.

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. I may start constructing some iron butterfly trades to put this belief into action (never been a big user of them, so any advice is welcome).

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I almost never opine or rec options because they're dangerous and don't want anyone to get crushed because of my rec, so someone else will have to provide you with that info.

If POWL drops back to the $150 level or below over the next few weeks, I will post some plays that I've done very well on around their earnings. They report 12/3 AH, so I'm targeting the 12/20 calls. NO ONE buy them now please, I'm not. I'm just watching them at the moment. I will post that trade when I commit my own money.

Hey kids, sorry been away for so long. Too busy but still try to keep up… anyways, I was in Oslo this week and stayed next door to the $NIO house… not sure if anyone still has some or trades it! Can confirm nice cars!

59 South said:

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PS: chart looks pretty pretty good….

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Not if you bought on 6/1/2021. Down 86.3% I'm still a bagholder for some reason - I think I just forgot about it.