That's a very fair point. Steel has been golden up until April and has been on a slide since. I think there are also lots of headwinds in the future to it seeing gains again. Maybe it hits a Darvish box for awhile.
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Last: 5 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Global commodity, subject to a lot of CCP influence/wars/trade issues. Very difficult to technically trade with success, imho.
Thoughts on ZS after yesterday's drop?
He's making money hand over fist with twitter now after trimming the fat out. I'd happily waste 45B on it if I was him too! Consider also X is becoming the news, replacing all of the MSM. X also just launched a TV app and is easily now the #1 in social media. Near limitless possibilities.
Hmmm... Last I heard (a few months ago), it's worth $12 billion or so, based on Fidelity's written down value of their ownership stake. Cutting costs helps a little, but running off advertisers (their main revenue stream) is not a great business model. It's mostly his money at stake, so I get it that he's doing what he wants, but I don't see his management approach working at X. He can't seem to be able to give strategic guidance, delegate, and back out of the limelight (he just has to weigh in on controversial topics, doesn't he?). He's spread way too thin with all his plethora of businesses, as well.Brewmaster said:
He's making money hand over fist with twitter now after trimming the fat out. I'd happily waste 45B on it if I was him too! Consider also X is becoming the news, replacing all of the MSM. X also just launched a TV app and is easily now the #1 in social media. Near limitless possibilities.
Once again, I applaud Elon as an innovator of very valuable companies such as Tesla and SpaceX, but as a turnaround artist, he's unproven, at best.
Seriously. This narrative that Elon has been successful with Twitter is hilarious.
I love the service, but you can tell by the paid ads how far they have fallen. It's a lot of no name companies at this point.
I love the service, but you can tell by the paid ads how far they have fallen. It's a lot of no name companies at this point.
No offense but that is a garbage valuation. It is basically a shot in the dark price target based on guesses. and guess who is pumping those articles? MSM. xAI alone is worth more. Users on X are through the roof, all time highs, more users than any other platform. Sorry, not sorry, that valuation is laughable.
apologies if I'm ranting! all the best to the both of you.
apologies if I'm ranting! all the best to the both of you.
tesla was a turnaroundI bleed maroon said:Hmmm... Last I heard (a few months ago), it's worth $12 billion or so, based on Fidelity's written down value of their ownership stake. Cutting costs helps a little, but running off advertisers (their main revenue stream) is not a great business model. It's mostly his money at stake, so I get it that he's doing what he wants, but I don't see his management approach working at X. He can't seem to be able to give strategic guidance, delegate, and back out of the limelight (he just has to weigh in on controversial topics, doesn't he?). He's spread way too thin with all his plethora of businesses, as well.Brewmaster said:
He's making money hand over fist with twitter now after trimming the fat out. I'd happily waste 45B on it if I was him too! Consider also X is becoming the news, replacing all of the MSM. X also just launched a TV app and is easily now the #1 in social media. Near limitless possibilities.
Once again, I applaud Elon as an innovator of very valuable companies such as Tesla and SpaceX, but as a turnaround artist, he's unproven, at best.
The following is just my opinion based on a good bit of past M&A experience. I think you're a great poster, and respect and value your opinions.Brewmaster said:
No offense but that is a garbage valuation. It is basically a shot in the dark price target based on guesses. and guess who is pumping those articles? MSM. xAI alone is worth more. Users on X are through the roof, all time highs, more users than any other platform. Sorry, not sorry, that valuation is laughable.
apologies if I'm ranting! all the best to the both of you.
Um, no offense, but it's not only not a garbage valuation or a guess, but is actually very solid. Fidelity invested money in X, and has to carry what they view to be true market value for that investment on their books. They have written it down a number of times since the purchase. This is public info. Their value implied a value of $12 billion earlier this year. It's our best proxy into actual value of the company, as it's privately held. Are you saying that Fidelity's CPAs are in cohoots with the MSM to make Elon look bad?
This deal was a vanity project for Elon. Maybe for honorable reasons. But as a business, # of users and an xAI concept don't appear to have produced any discernable value. Growth in advertising, subscription revenue and other income streams do. Those have not materialized, according to Fidelity's insider knowledge, thus the write-downs. It's just business.
I wish him luck - maybe his innovative nature and methods will pay off longer-term, but for now, it's a majorly failed transaction (he paid WAY WAY too much for what it is now). This is clear, even if fanboys (not saying you're one) refuse to acknowledge it.
Tesla was a start-up. They hadn't produced a single vehicle before Elon took over as CEO. And that first vehicle was a Lotus with a battery pack. He gets virtually all of the credit for their innovative efforts, as well he should. He, Steve Jobs, and Jeff Bezos are the top innovators of the 21st century (Jensen Huang has a shot if he keeps it up).Ragoo said:tesla was aI bleed maroon said:Hmmm... Last I heard (a few months ago), it's worth $12 billion or so, based on Fidelity's written down value of their ownership stake. Cutting costs helps a little, but running off advertisers (their main revenue stream) is not a great business model. It's mostly his money at stake, so I get it that he's doing what he wants, but I don't see his management approach working at X. He can't seem to be able to give strategic guidance, delegate, and back out of the limelight (he just has to weigh in on controversial topics, doesn't he?). He's spread way too thin with all his plethora of businesses, as well.Brewmaster said:
He's making money hand over fist with twitter now after trimming the fat out. I'd happily waste 45B on it if I was him too! Consider also X is becoming the news, replacing all of the MSM. X also just launched a TV app and is easily now the #1 in social media. Near limitless possibilities.
Once again, I applaud Elon as an innovator of very valuable companies such as Tesla and SpaceX, but as a turnaround artist, he's unproven, at best.turnaround
pre-market lookin' rough...does the jobs report save us...or are we re-testing those carry trade lows???
I love when the market doesn't know when bad news is good news or bad news is bad news...
The nature of the news is important to determining when good news isn't bad.EnronAg said:
I love when the market doesn't know when bad news is good news or bad news is bad news...
-K. Harris
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
EnronAg said:
pre-market lookin' rough...does the jobs report save us...or are we re-testing those carry trade lows???
Jobs reports fell short. Going to be a red day
well, I would normally agree with you...but SPY ripped nearly 1% on the report, soooooooooo...
Me to the premarket SPY move
Still solid number that's not too low so that keeps them from a 50 point cut in a couple weeks. Also unemployment down a tick. Would not be surprised to see a run up into the rate cut now.
August jobs 142k v 160 expected, June and July revised down by 86k. "Surprisingly."
Well then I hope it rips!
$121 price target on CAVA through end of day, then nothing but lower targets ranging from $70 to $90 that would only be invalidated with a new high. If we get $120+ before close, I'm likely buying December or Jan puts.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
SMCI has dropped through support to under $400. Still don't have a bottom yet, but I am starting to get tempted to get back in, but not sure if we are still in "falling knife" territory.
ALB has dropped below the 61.8% retrace of its last move up and now recovered. Really need that to hold as bottom. If so, I've got some targets going up and applied a loose wave count as possible path. Yellow is an alternate bullish path showing a choppy diagonal up which does grow in probability when Wave ii drops below the 61.8%.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
If this is true, it seems like there is a bigger underlying problem.nortex97 said:
August jobs 142k v 160 expected, June and July revised down by 86k. "Surprisingly."
Holy shit:
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 6, 2024
Foreign-born workers: +635K in August
Native-born workers: -1.325 MILLION in August
Yes, 1.3 million NATIVE-BORN Americans lost a job in August pic.twitter.com/7EC3H1KH5Y
This has been going on since COVID and is nothing new, just completely ignored by the media.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Rotated $6k of BRKB into SMCI at $395.harge57 said:
SMCI has dropped through support to under $400. Still don't have a bottom yet, but I am starting to get tempted to get back in, but not sure if we are still in "falling knife" territory.
The hardest part for me is waiting for a bottom to set. I am expected a slow melt down, similar to a post earnings announcement drift.harge57 said:
SMCI has dropped through support to under $400. Still don't have a bottom yet, but I am starting to get tempted to get back in, but not sure if we are still in "falling knife" territory.
If I've read correctly, you've mentioned two stops you had for SMCI that were not honored, but instead you bought more?Brian Earl Spilner said:Rotated $6k of BRKB into SMCI at $395.harge57 said:
SMCI has dropped through support to under $400. Still don't have a bottom yet, but I am starting to get tempted to get back in, but not sure if we are still in "falling knife" territory.
SPY 8/4 gap now filled. Down further?
My stop was $390. Just fell below that now.GreasenUSA said:If I've read correctly, you've mentioned two stops you had for SMCI that were not honored, but instead you bought more?Brian Earl Spilner said:Rotated $6k of BRKB into SMCI at $395.harge57 said:
SMCI has dropped through support to under $400. Still don't have a bottom yet, but I am starting to get tempted to get back in, but not sure if we are still in "falling knife" territory.
Ok. Just wanted to say that I know it sucks, but stops will keep you safe in the long run.Brian Earl Spilner said:My stop was $390. Just fell below that now.GreasenUSA said:If I've read correctly, you've mentioned two stops you had for SMCI that were not honored, but instead you bought more?Brian Earl Spilner said:Rotated $6k of BRKB into SMCI at $395.harge57 said:
SMCI has dropped through support to under $400. Still don't have a bottom yet, but I am starting to get tempted to get back in, but not sure if we are still in "falling knife" territory.
$118 was hit this morning, and it seems the bottom has also fallen out for CAVA todayHeineken-Ashi said:
CAVA - Watching the $118-$123 area closely. If we get in that box, it's potentially set up for a downside play and I've got targets from $80-$90 timed through September with low $70's valid through January. Will post if I enter any positions.
Seems like we're moving into a downward trend until 2025, no?
My core portfolio is taking an absolute beating and I can't find anything interesting. I'ma go get on the tractor and try to get some mowing done. Good luck y'all, see you Monday.
BTHO whoever it is we play tomorrow.
BTHO whoever it is we play tomorrow.
Sitting on support.Happygilmore20 said:$118 was hit this morning, and it seems the bottom has also fallen out for CAVA todayHeineken-Ashi said:
CAVA - Watching the $118-$123 area closely. If we get in that box, it's potentially set up for a downside play and I've got targets from $80-$90 timed through September with low $70's valid through January. Will post if I enter any positions.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Tell us what you are seeing.hedge said:
Seems like we're moving into a downward trend until 2025, no?
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