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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Ag13 • 2:10p, 8/26/24
Ag13 said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
TTUArmy said:
Like I've been saying for a long time, history is not bullish on rate cuts for anything more than a short term relief bounce.
This statement simply isn't true. The tweet linked is definitively cherry picking. There have been multiple other rate cut cycles that should be considered when talking about "history". 2001 and 2007 were both cutting into recessions and voila the stock market went down.

If there's another recession following the upcoming rate cuts, then stocks may go down again. But we won't know for a while and as of now the economy has weathered recession signals and continues to grow. If the fed pulls off a soft landing then stocks are likely to continue to go up, not down. Ascribing the stock market's performance to rate cuts themselves doesn't really work.

See below for more info/data:

How many of those years in that tweet were preceded by a steep raising of rates to battle high inflation followed by a 1+ year pause?

I've discussed this many many times here. All indications are pointing toward a hard cut due to entering a recession, and maybe something worse, comparable to the years in the past that followed a steep increase in rates.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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2:25p, 8/26/24
IREN - Want it to hold above $7.50, then one more push up into $9.20-$9.50 range which will be significant resistance. Reaction off of that will be telling.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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3:33p, 8/26/24
POWL just had to turn down almost at the exact H&S level.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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4:20p, 8/26/24
AG
Might load up on more SMCI with my TNA proceeds if this keeps falling.
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SW AG80
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 5:05p, 8/26/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
POWL just had to turn down almost at the exact H&S level.
What do you foresee for POWL in the next month?
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to SW AG80 • 6:11p, 8/26/24
SW AG80 said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
POWL just had to turn down almost at the exact H&S level.
What do you foresee for POWL in the next month?
I think it can get back close to previous high. I'm not sold on it making a new high. ProgN has been all over this one though and has laid out his thesis multiple times, and his track record is solid on stocks like this. I'm coming from a purely technical standpoint, so please keep that in mind.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Joseph Freshwater, Sr
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 6:58p, 8/26/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
IREN - Want it to hold above $7.50, then one more push up into $9.20-$9.50 range which will be significant resistance. Reaction off of that will be telling.


Following closely. Thanks for the update.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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9:24p, 8/26/24
Congrats to the CAVA shorters. I wish I would have followed y'all in that one. Timing is the hardest thing to predict.
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GreasenUSA
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8:15a, 8/27/24
AG
https://hindenburgresearch.com/smci/

Hindenburg just hit SMCI


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Chef Elko
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In reply to GreasenUSA • 8:27a, 8/27/24
AG
I wonder what levels they layered in their puts at
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Anastasia Beaverhaven
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In reply to GreasenUSA • 8:40a, 8/27/24
GreasenUSA said:
https://hindenburgresearch.com/smci/

Hindenburg just hit SMCI


That report is comical and I don't know the stock market as well as others here.

Reads like a bunch of hearsay from former employees and some Russia, Russia, Russia drum banging.
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FishrCoAg
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In reply to Anastasia Beaverhaven • 8:47a, 8/27/24
AG
Jail is too nice a place for the folks at Hindenburg
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Brian Earl Spilner
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8:56a, 8/27/24
AG
Didn't catch the bottom but grabbed more SMCI at 550 and 538.
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bhanacik
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 9:03a, 8/27/24
AG
Yeah I had a limit order execute at 539 this morning
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:15a, 8/27/24
Do you still see 175ish as the resistance/support line from way back when? Trying to decide where to set stops.

I have some calls so even if I get stopped out of my shares I have those to catch the upside. But obviously want to maximize my return on shares.
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South Platte
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:44a, 8/27/24
Outside of the drop/recovery a couple of weeks ago, do you see consolidation occurring with TALO? Seems we are about 8 weeks into consolidation.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to bhanacik • 10:17a, 8/27/24
AG
bhanacik said:
Yeah I had a limit order execute at 539 this morning
similar for me, I reloaded in the 530's, watching big volume come in.
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fauxstradamus
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2:41p, 8/27/24
AG
PATH $12.5 January 2025 calls finally ITM. Been a very slow grind up after the CEO change. Don't know if anyone else is in on these.
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G Money
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2:56p, 8/27/24
AG
Where did everyone go?
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TheVarian
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In reply to G Money • 2:59p, 8/27/24
AG
Licking our wounds from the last few weeks
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bhanacik
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In reply to fauxstradamus • 3:00p, 8/27/24
AG
fauxstradamus said:
PATH $12.5 January 2025 calls finally ITM. Been a very slow grind up after the CEO change. Don't know if anyone else is in on these.


I'm in them and had an alert go off today. Planning on watching closely over the next two weeks.
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to TheVarian • 3:10p, 8/27/24
I'm trying to decide if it's a good or bad thing that I've become totally numb to how much my account goes up or down on any given day. I think I'm a robot at this point.
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ProgN
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In reply to CC09LawAg • 3:13p, 8/27/24
CC09LawAg said:
I'm trying to decide if it's a good or bad thing that I've become totally numb to how much my account goes up or down on any given day. I think I'm a robot at this point.
It's a positive and you're maturing as an investor because you're removing emotion. Removing emotion will lead to better decisions and more profits.
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to ProgN • 3:18p, 8/27/24
Well, I lost a ton of money by being an idiot. I hit rock bottom and ran through all the stages of grief at this point. So I do actually feel like I'm thinking more clearly now.
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ProgN
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In reply to CC09LawAg • 3:24p, 8/27/24
CC09LawAg said:
Well, I lost a ton of money by being an idiot. I hit rock bottom and ran through all the stages of grief at this point. So I do actually feel like I'm thinking more clearly now.
Pain is the best education. I've previously said that I blew up my account at least 7 times in my early years and had to rebuild, but I learned something from each landmine I stepped on. That's also why Heini and me enjoy this clubhouse. Hopefully our advice can help some of you avoid stepping on a landmine, but also learn from our past mistakes without the pain.
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to ProgN • 3:27p, 8/27/24
The good part about losing a lot of money is it hurts a lot less to lose a little money. So it's a lot easier to admit when I'm wrong now and cut bait.

I do appreciate the two different perspectives you and HA bring to the board. It has helped me a lot.
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ProgN
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In reply to CC09LawAg • 3:32p, 8/27/24
Quote:
So it's a lot easier to admit when I'm wrong now and cut bait.

You probably don't know how difficult it is for people to make this leap. It's human nature that our pride makes it hard to admit when we made a mistake to ourselves. None of us like to look into that mirror. If you continue to do that, then you've cleared a major emotional obstacle and you'll be more successful in the market.
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Brewmaster
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3:33p, 8/27/24
AG
is it just me or is this the sell off before the NVDA ripper?
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to Brewmaster • 3:36p, 8/27/24
This is what I am leaning towards. Now, I expect it to be ugly after the ripper, but I just need POWL to cooperate this week or next so my calls can pay out. Then I am going to take a little breather from trading.
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CC09LawAg
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3:37p, 8/27/24
Anyone in DELL calls? I was day trading it for about a week and a half. It's been in a pretty tight range for about 2 weeks.

Does NVDA crushing give DELL a boost?
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to CC09LawAg • 3:45p, 8/27/24
CC09LawAg said:
The good part about losing a lot of money is it hurts a lot less to lose a little money. So it's a lot easier to admit when I'm wrong now and cut bait.

I do appreciate the two different perspectives you and HA bring to the board. It has helped me a lot.
If you have $10,000 and spend $1k 10 times, losing 10% of your money on 9 of them (likely from stops), while making 2x on 1 of them, you've netted $1,100 in profit and grown your account 11%.

Now do the math as your win% goes from 1/10 to 3, 4, 5, or 6 out of 10.

Identifying opportunities with high reward and low risk allows you play many things and not even need most of them to perform.

This is why I'm so adament about identifying the failure point on a play and only taking it if the reward is 3x+ more in profit than the loss would be.

You're not worried about what you spent, because you've limited the loss from the start. You're only worry is if any of the plays will win, hoping its more than a few.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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M4 Benelli
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In reply to ProgN • 3:46p, 8/27/24
Quote:
Pain is the best education. I've previously said that I blew up my accoun


Applies to all facets of life. I'm still reeling from a 47k in a nano second punch in the face. One doesn't have to lose everything to proceed with a rebuild. It's analogous with sports. Assess, remove cancerous pieces, incorporate pieces that have a sound thesis. If it doesn't work out, cut out the cancer. Be pragmatic, have a game plan.

While being "emotionless" is a sound disposition, he way it was written, I sense that you're (ColAG) "numb" to the entire process. This infers that you don't have a sound strategy and are still in the coping stages of your financial loss.

Perhaps wipe the slate clean, take a step away, and purely assess u til you've put your losses in the rearview.
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ProgN
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In reply to Brewmaster • 3:50p, 8/27/24
Brewmaster said:
is it just me or is this the sell off before the NVDA ripper?
Everything hinges on NVDA's forward guidance and conference call. They'll crush earnings, but they're going to have to surpass forward expectations that WS has.

Everyone needs to take tonight to be mentally prepared. What I mean by that is don't be afraid and see the big picture. This AI expansion is in the first inning and the future growth is going to be off the charts. Most of you were too young or not even born during the mid 90's (**** I"m old) but think Netscape, Yahoo, AOL, etc. and how much their stocks exploded. Yes they are no longer relevant but WS learned a lot from the .com implosion. That is the growth potential of AI and electrical infrastructure ($POWL, $ETN) companies are now. If NVDA crushes ER and guidance and stocks explode higher then you're already on the train. If their guidance is good enough for WS astronomical expectations and they get beat up, then use that fear as entry points at great stocks on sale.

Think about what I just posted tonight, do that you'll can act without hesitation and debate it when you should be acting. Jmo
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 3:50p, 8/27/24
The defined risk is what I need to improve on, and it's what I need to spend the time doing when the market it closed. I usually have a plan when the market opens, and have a defined range I am looking for, but then I start reacting to what is happening and realize I entered at a point where the profit potential was very low but the risk of loss was too high.

Just need to get better about doing my homework ahead of time and being proactive vs reactive.

I'm also trading on a much shorter timeframe than I think you typically do, but I am looking to change that.
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WestTexasAg
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In reply to ProgN • 3:51p, 8/27/24
AG
ProgN said:
CC09LawAg said:
Well, I lost a ton of money by being an idiot. I hit rock bottom and ran through all the stages of grief at this point. So I do actually feel like I'm thinking more clearly now.
Pain is the best education. I've previously said that I blew up my account at least 7 times in my early years and had to rebuild, but I learned something from each landmine I stepped on. That's also why Heini and me enjoy this clubhouse. Hopefully our advice can help some of you avoid stepping on a landmine, but also learn from our past mistakes without the pain.
Appreciate both of you guys!
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