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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to TTUArmy • 4:12p, 8/24/24
TTUArmy said:
Like I've been saying for a long time, history is not bullish on rate cuts for anything more than a short term relief bounce.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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7:38p, 8/24/24
I feel good about this one. Buying Monday with stop at $13.62 and sell target at $25. Don't care about additional upside, because the reversal will likely be very strong after it tops. Why leave your money at risk?

Might buy calls today, but I think we get a better chance at those in early to mid September.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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11:20p, 8/24/24
UUUU - Buy shares with stop just below recent low of $4.19. Very low risk. I expect this to reverse back between $7.78 and $9 sometime between before next June, though my expectation is that it will happen by February. This completed an ending diagonal C wave, and I don't care if the next move is bullish or bearish, as my target should get hit in either scenario. ED's usually reverse to the point they started and often in half the time. I will be buying shares AND Jan $5 calls. But options on this aren't the most liquid so you do have to consider the ability to sell in the future and what the spreads will be between the bid and the ask. If you do options, your premium paid is your risk. The failure point is a break below $4.19, though it could put in a slightly lower low and STILL pay off. When I do options on things like this, its all or nothing. Please understand that. My answer when asked if you should stick with it in two months will be "has the setup failed yet?"

This is similar to the BLDE play I engaged earlier in the summer (that one still has 3-4 months to pay off).



"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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jamey
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In reply to TTUArmy • 2:40p, 8/25/24
AG
TTUArmy said:


What was the reason for those rate cuts, compared to what we're getting in Sept.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to jamey • 3:34p, 8/25/24
jamey said:
TTUArmy said:


What was the reason for those rate cuts, compared to what we're getting in Sept.
Why would the FED need to cut if rates at their current place are working?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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jamey
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 5:23p, 8/25/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
jamey said:
TTUArmy said:


What was the reason for those rate cuts, compared to what we're getting in Sept.
Why would the FED need to cut if rates at their current place are working?


Because rates were raised to be restrictive, to reduce inflation. The plan was to always reduce to neutral

Why is this not different than the past reactions
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Philip J Fry
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11:15p, 8/25/24
AG
Fed cuts rates when the economy is retracting and in a recession. What am I missing?
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Heineken-Ashi
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12:19a, 8/26/24
Also buying DDD this week. Earnings Thursday. There's a good chance a very long term bottom was hit, and I have $6-$7 target range for a Christmas rally going as late as Jan/Feb. Stop just below $2.27 recent low. Phenomenal R/R



Zoomed in

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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EliteZags
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In reply to TTUArmy • 12:45a, 8/26/24
AG
TTUArmy said:

so this is somehow not cherrypicking?


now do 2008, 2020
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aggiebrad16
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In reply to EliteZags • 5:47a, 8/26/24
AG
EliteZags said:
TTUArmy said:

so this is somehow not cherrypicking?


now do 2008, 2020


I think this was an attempt not to cherry pick by excluding 2020. There we're obviously other issues at play.

The data is analyzing first rate cuts. If you're looking at 2008, the first rate cut of the cycle was in Sept 2007, which this person did highlight.
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ProgN
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7:14a, 8/26/24
POWL may take out its ATH this week.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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7:24a, 8/26/24
AG
TNA about to take out my final $46 target. Thinking maybe I should hold onto these shares.
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fauxstradamus
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 8:08a, 8/26/24
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
TNA about to take out my final $46 target. Thinking maybe I should hold onto these shares.
As our resident TNA expert, I assume you will be making a play on DDD?
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nortex97
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8:24a, 8/26/24
AG
Quote:
USA Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) For July -0.2% Vs 0.0% Est.; 0.1% Prior
Oil jumps, stocks mixed…
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Anastasia Beaverhaven
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8:36a, 8/26/24
What are we expecting with the Nvidia earnings report release on 8/28. The week/market futures are going to hinge on them.

Are we expecting them to beat?
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Talon2DSO
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 8:40a, 8/26/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
Also buying DDD this week. Earnings Thursday. There's a good chance a very long term bottom was hit, and I have $6-$7 target range for a Christmas rally going as late as Jan/Feb. Stop just below $2.27 recent low. Phenomenal R/R



Zoomed in



Wwr on the yearly look seems to have a similar tract.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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8:41a, 8/26/24
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-forecasts-2050-oil-demand-match-todays-25-above-bp-estimate-2024-08-26/
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confucius_ag
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9:08a, 8/26/24
AG
SOFI might be close to a breakout.
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to ProgN • 9:11a, 8/26/24
A lot of volume today - seems like pretty solid resistance here. Hoping the overall market cooperates - if it does I think it's gonna fly.

My 9/20 220C I picked up for .40 are looking good.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to fauxstradamus • 9:14a, 8/26/24
AG
fauxstradamus said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
TNA about to take out my final $46 target. Thinking maybe I should hold onto these shares.
As our resident TNA expert, I assume you will be making a play on DDD?
LOL, underrated post sir.

came here to post TSLA chart... I liked what it WAS doing. unless they stick save it here probably not actionable now. We shall see how rest of the day shakes out.





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Heineken-Ashi
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9:18a, 8/26/24
SMCI - Watching $570's to see if it can hold. Below that, $540-$560 range is in play.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Number Monkey
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:22a, 8/26/24
AG
It looks like they've already released earning on 8/20?
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Talon2DSO
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9:25a, 8/26/24
AG
Smci sub 590
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Hunter_812
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In reply to Number Monkey • 9:27a, 8/26/24
AG
That was Q1, Q2 is this week.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Number Monkey • 9:31a, 8/26/24
Number Monkey said:
It looks like they've already released earning on 8/20?
Ya they had a delay on filing their 10k earlier this year and I think thats screwing with things.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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10:49a, 8/26/24
CAVA - This run would have to extend 15 more trading days just to get to the point where the retracement after it tops might only stop at $100. As of now, if it tops in the next 10 days, I expect to see $80's again within 1-2 months, and $70's are still likely.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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fauxstradamus
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In reply to Talon2DSO • 10:57a, 8/26/24
AG
Talon2DSO said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
Also buying DDD this week. Earnings Thursday. There's a good chance a very long term bottom was hit, and I have $6-$7 target range for a Christmas rally going as late as Jan/Feb. Stop just below $2.27 recent low. Phenomenal R/R



Zoomed in



Wwr on the yearly look seems to have a similar tract.
I'll play. Got in for 1000 shares at $2.60. Stop at $2.17
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to fauxstradamus • 11:13a, 8/26/24
fauxstradamus said:
Talon2DSO said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
Also buying DDD this week. Earnings Thursday. There's a good chance a very long term bottom was hit, and I have $6-$7 target range for a Christmas rally going as late as Jan/Feb. Stop just below $2.27 recent low. Phenomenal R/R



Zoomed in



Wwr on the yearly look seems to have a similar tract.
I'll play. Got in for 1000 shares at $2.60. Stop at $2.17
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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GreasenUSA
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 11:17a, 8/26/24
EnronAg
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11:48a, 8/26/24
AG
here we go with the standard afternoon grind back to green
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Heineken-Ashi
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12:02p, 8/26/24
Now fully expecting $535-$540 SMCI before next move up, which should be significant. Would need back above $600 to signal $700 is coming before going any lower.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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E
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12:30p, 8/26/24
AG
some nice green candles to get SLV over $28 in the next couple days would be super sweet
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Spoony Love
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12:44p, 8/26/24
AG
Be careful those watching SPY. We lose 560 and we are going for an outside candle today near 557.
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EliteZags
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12:47p, 8/26/24
AG
yes chronic daytraders should usually be careful in general
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Ag13
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 1:05p, 8/26/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
TTUArmy said:
Like I've been saying for a long time, history is not bullish on rate cuts for anything more than a short term relief bounce.
This statement simply isn't true. The tweet linked is definitively cherry picking. There have been multiple other rate cut cycles that should be considered when talking about "history". 2001 and 2007 were both cutting into recessions and voila the stock market went down.

If there's another recession following the upcoming rate cuts, then stocks may go down again. But we won't know for a while and as of now the economy has weathered recession signals and continues to grow. If the fed pulls off a soft landing then stocks are likely to continue to go up, not down. Ascribing the stock market's performance to rate cuts themselves doesn't really work.

See below for more info/data:

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