Ok, yall can probably tell I've been honing in my trading system. Essentially, it's a mix of about 15 indicators and strategies. It's been thoroughly backtested and is now being actively forward tested. One indicator might give one call on a timeframe, but if others are bunched closer to another level I will default to the closer target. The goal is to provide minimal target levels. That means, once a level gets hit, it doesn't necessarily mean price can't continue. It just means a minimum target was hit. When targets bunch together, it's a good sign of a high probability area. If a target doesn't hit within its timeframe, it gets changed to unprinted which means it can't be relied upon. Yet, if price is moving toward another target in the same range, the unprinted target has often acted as a point of support or resistance, and sometimes even the final point before a reversal. That's why I keep them on there. Targets that have printed are removed. I don't care about success levels. Only open levels so I can determine where price might go in the future.
Orange: intraday to 1-1/2 trading days and going through next day's first hour if it ends after hours.
Yellow: Intraday to 3 trading days and going through next day's first hour if it ends after hours.
Light Green: 1-10 trading days and going through next day's first hour if it ends after hours.
Dark Green: 1-60 trading days (though completing in the first 3-5 days is pretty rare)
Blue: 1-24 weeks
White: 1-24 months
Here's SMCI. These take a while to chart, so I won't often post charts like this.. will usually just give levels like I did with DIS earlier OR I will notify if there's a really likely target we can play like TSLA had a chance to be this morning. And every so often, we might get a high probability target with juicy options potential to maximize reward.
We have a target that was almost hit this week valid through Monday mid day. Not much to trade to get there. We then have an unprinted potential resistance at $616 with next target of $691 available through Wednesday morning. Given the short timeframe, we would need to have a hell of a rally to hit the Wednesday target. I don't see it as probable, but it's certainly possible as SMCI still has a small float and is extremely volatile. What's really enticing is the $750-$800 targets. $750 has until early October and $790 through election. I'm likely buying Monday if price is not making new lows with stop at recent low and plans to just trail stop with target $750-$800 range. But I want to point out the bottom of the screen. We have the longest timeframe target available through the end of next year. Most lower targets have gone unprinted (the $320 and $360 ran through today, so that's good news. But the levels remain as unprinted targets, but if this falls to a new low, there's a ton of air below. So stop is very important. We have $1,020 available through end of the year if it wants to really run. Above that, and there's no higher targets.
This system will not predict new highs or new lows if trading at ATH's or ATL's respectively. And if there is no targets below the lowest target, that tells you that breaking the closest low opens the instrument to freefall with little liquidity to help save it. Similarly if NOT at ATH's and no targets above.. a move higher could lead to a gamma squeeze with no resistance to slow it down.
For next week, if price can't get above $700, we might be in no man's land on reliable shorter term targets until new data comes in. I'll update as we go.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
