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23,980,852 Views | 231555 Replies | Last: 23 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
McInnis 03
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AG
I "jumped" out the 10th floor window at 6am but the damn awning broke my fall and bounced me into a beautiful fountain so I'm injury free.

I say "jumped" because I think Mcinnis pushed me out.

It seemed like the right thing to do at the time.
E King Trill
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AG

ProgN
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McInnis 03 said:

I "jumped" out the 10th floor window at 6am but the damn awning broke my fall and bounced me into a beautiful fountain so I'm injury free.

I say "jumped" because I think Mcinnis pushed me out.

It seemed like the right thing to do at the time.
hedge
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That really was the top for nvidia
LMCane
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Heineken-Ashi said:

Dan Scott said:

According to Tom Lee who is bullish, the unemployment rate is overstated. He makes the point that Hurricane Beryl caused over a million people and business to be without power for a week in the month. Unemployment claims in Texas are up while rest of country is down. Also said there is a huge increased in weather being the response for unemployed in July. And all this gets corrected in the August report which would confirm if it's really that bad out there.

Interesting perspective.

Yes, the weather in Houston made the entire market selloff. Had nothing to do with JPY reversing and global liquidity leaving to cover JPY carry trade shorts.

I'm sure the Nikkei (-5%), Hang Seng (-2%), KOSPI (-3.65%), Euronext 100 (-2.7%), and every other major world index being down on the same day while VIX was up 25% was because of US weather.

Tom Lee has made some good calls. But he's missing the forest on this one. I wouldn't be surprised to see the market make new highs. But it won't be because people realized they overfreaked over a jobs report and a hurricane. Today had nothing to do with retail. Who on this forum was selling stocks today? Wall Street Bets? Anyone? Retail has some cash on the side waiting to deploy. The last two days were a global liquidity event. And likely more than just twitchy algos. Global money moves in massive amounts day to day to fund liquidity. And when one of the main drivers reverses, it forces covering. The money to cover has to come from somewhere. Whether this downturn continues or not is TBD.

Heineken again proves more prescient than most paid commentators and economists shilling for one side or another.

Bullseye predictions on the carry trade 5 days in advance!

super impressive!

Chef Elko
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AG
If it's the top for NVDA, it's the top for the market in general.
LMCane
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CC09LawAg said:

Fidelity has been fine for me, other than processing orders slow/some delays.
I could only see my "Portfolio" page on Fidelity

but not get into my actual account positions

so I can see all the losses but can't do anything. which is fine.
LMCane
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Chef Elko said:

If it's the top for NVDA, it's the top for the market in general.
I think we are way beyond that point my friend.

Market Summary > PHLX Semiconductor Sector

4,564.83 -543.18 (-10.63%) past 5 days

Aug 5, 12:38PM EDT
dreyOO
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

Sava almost tagged 30...does someone know or is this someone's exit strategy?
SAVA is crushing it. Can't remember who recommended it, but thank you kind sir! I kept buying when it dipped under $10.
LMCane
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BenTheGoodAg said:

SF2004 said:

Value investing might be king for a bit.

but we just saw over the weekend that Berkshire sold billions of Apple

and trimmed their position by like 50%
knoxtom
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LMCane said:

BenTheGoodAg said:

SF2004 said:

Value investing might be king for a bit.

but we just saw over the weekend that Berkshire sold billions of Apple

and trimmed their position by like 50%

That was a margin call
El Chupacabra
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TDub said:

So as a 28 year old going through this for the first time what should I expect and where should I put my money?
Look back at the end of 2018...Christmas Eve was not so Christmas-y. Market shed 20% in a brief time frame, that's the last 'crash' I recall outside of covid nonsense.

I don't even think the S&P has shed 10% at this point.

Where you should put your money...that's up to your timeframe and risk tolerance. We might drop a lot more...we might be at ATH in 2 weeks, but I'm guessing when you're 56 and need the money, you won't remember this 'crash'.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

Sava almost tagged 30...does someone know or is this someone's exit strategy?
Hold on to it like a wild ride in the sack and don't let go. DO NOT SELL. If you can get your ownership into a Roth, I suggest you do. Pay the tax.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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dreyOO said:

Charismatic Megafauna said:

Sava almost tagged 30...does someone know or is this someone's exit strategy?
SAVA is crushing it. Can't remember who recommended it, but thank you kind sir! I kept buying when it dipped under $10.
Good job on the sub $10 buy!
E King Trill
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AG
knoxtom said:

LMCane said:

BenTheGoodAg said:

SF2004 said:

Value investing might be king for a bit.

but we just saw over the weekend that Berkshire sold billions of Apple

and trimmed their position by like 50%

That was a margin call


Buffett is such a ***** sometimes
FishrCoAg
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AG
E King Trill said:

knoxtom said:

LMCane said:

BenTheGoodAg said:

SF2004 said:

Value investing might be king for a bit.

but we just saw over the weekend that Berkshire sold billions of Apple

and trimmed their position by like 50%

That was a margin call


Buffett is such a ***** sometimes


Huh?
Heineken-Ashi
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We're either going to get afternoon margins calls and renewed selling, or this bounce is real.

If real, hourly SPX ich cloud reversal has 5500 target with daily not far off. Daily cloud can see resistance as high as 5575 over the next two weeks.

If no more selling off today, we might get a round of some good earnings and significant bounces in select stocks, mainly some chippers. But I'm not yet in the camp one more high is the most likely outcome in broader markets.

SMCI can get back to high $800's.
PLTR I outlined all the levels on Friday.
NVDA $120 would be first upper target.
POWL is kind of sitting on a range with still the H&S threat. Selloff was too big IMO to be something more bullish from a technical perspective. Ich cloud says $90 can happen and thats the weekly 144 EMA. Who knows.
AMD could get $160's and as high as $180's.
ARM could get back most of this drop from the high. We don't have enough candles for a weekly target, but it would be lower without a new high.
SLV has $28 daily potential.

All of this is IF we get sustained bounces.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
kyle field 94
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AG
What are we all missing here with Sava?
ProgN
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Quote:

POWL is kind of sitting on a range with still the H&S threat. Selloff was too big IMO to be something more bullish from a technical perspective. Ich cloud says $90 can happen and thats the weekly 144 EMA


POWL prints $90 then we are in WW3 and it's not going to matter what you're in except precious metals, ammo and food. IMHO.
hedge
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Intel CEO tweets a scripture
Philip J Fry
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AG
To be fair, he also said SMCI would hit the 509s.

That said, I reloaded on POWL this morning.
ProgN
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Philip J Fry said:

To be fair, he also said SMCI would hit the 509s.

That said, I reloaded on POWL this morning.
I'm not calling Hein out at all. He's my friend and I have the upmost respect for him, I just don't see that scenario happening.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Charismatic Megafauna said:

Sava almost tagged 30...does someone know or is this someone's exit strategy?
Hold on to it like a wild ride in the sack and don't let go. DO NOT SELL. If you can get your ownership into a Roth, I suggest you do. Pay the tax.

I didn't realize you were on the sava train farmer! Lot of roche or merck buyout rumors swirling, I've held this long (in a rollover 401k) and exercised my warrants so I'm ride or die. Glad to see you back!
Heineken-Ashi
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ProgN said:

Quote:

POWL is kind of sitting on a range with still the H&S threat. Selloff was too big IMO to be something more bullish from a technical perspective. Ich cloud says $90 can happen and thats the weekly 144 EMA


POWL prints $90 then we are in WW3 and it's not going to matter what you're in except precious metals, ammo and food. IMHO.
Maybe so, just highlighting what I see. I won't pound the table on anything when the investing environment is extremely risk on.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
SF2004
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AG
BenTheGoodAg said:

SF2004 said:

Value investing might be king for a bit.

LOL.

I meant things with dividend income and protection volatility.

Trading is going to be wicked for a bit and has the possibility to crush accounts.
Heineken-Ashi
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We have a lot of people here who offer valuable insight. Some of you are probably wondering why certain people can be pointing in two different directions. I call it, "when mom and dad disagree". Please try and understand where each person is coming from in short, medium, and long term outlooks, what their specialty is, and what they personally have on the table. When ProgN pounds the table on a stock, and I am seeing potential in the opposite direction, it's likely a disagreement that will shake out in the short and mid term with one of us being more right than the other while the long term outlook is still fully agreed upon.

Case in point.. ProgN say SMCI rocket while I said it had strong potential for $600 and possibly $550 first. While I ended up being right, he can STILL be right. Understand where we are both coming from. I was never bearish on SMCI. I was biased to the downside short term and market happened to take us there.

When he says back up the truck on POWL, he's likely right. It doesn't invalidate the potential for what I see. And my own analysis can invalidate itself as nothing is perfect and Im not always right, clearly.

So when mom and dad disagree, it's likely over something more trivial short term. Do mom and dad see eye to eye on the grand plan? If not, that's when you have to figure out who you want to trust more. Or better yet, do your own due diligence as we both always advise, and trade your own plan with your own risk management.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
ProgN
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Perfect description my friend.
dreyOO
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So which one of you is Mom because I usually defer to Dad on financial matters
giddings_ag_06
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AG
ProgN said:

Perfect description my friend.

I prefer the parent that has a less harsh punishment right now. I don't want to be grounded or have my toys taken away.
M4 Benelli
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Prog is definitely dad, dude reeks of Alpha.

confucius_ag
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AG
It got weird.
"Me not know, me not tell, me push button and run like hell."
CC09LawAg
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We going to tank into close and close below the open? Sure feels that way.
M4 Benelli
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confucius_ag said:

It got weird.


Yea I uhhhh agree. It is 2024, no reason why we can't have TWO Dads!
LMCane
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Charismatic Megafauna said:

Sava almost tagged 30...does someone know or is this someone's exit strategy?
Hold on to it like a wild ride in the sack and don't let go. DO NOT SELL. If you can get your ownership into a Roth, I suggest you do. Pay the tax.

I didn't realize you were on the sava train farmer! Lot of roche or merck buyout rumors swirling, I've held this long (in a rollover 401k) and exercised my warrants so I'm ride or die. Glad to see you back!
I started a position in Roche a month ago.

I think that one will do well plus exposure to Europe
TxAgLaw03RW
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AG
It's 2024, we can have 2 dads. Bigot.
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