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23,979,692 Views | 231555 Replies | Last: 21 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Heineken-Ashi
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Reminder, weekly SPX ich cloud reversal takes us to 4800 minimum. I've never studied monthly reversal, but if we were to get one (21 months is a long time for a target range), 3500-4300 would be the target range.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Spoony Love
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AG
Everybody locked out seems coordinated. I can't get into Schwab. Sounds like Vanguard is having problems. Which platform is working fine?
CC09LawAg
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Fidelity has been fine for me, other than processing orders slow/some delays.
Heineken-Ashi
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Spoony Love said:

Everybody locked out seems coordinated. I can't get into Schwab. Sounds like Vanguard is having problems. Which platform is working fine?
I stayed logged in on TOS last night and am fine.

Hard to buy in to a coordinated campaign. That would mean its an attempt to stave off selling and would only lead to more selling once people can get back in.

More likely, everyone and their dog is rushing to login and the servers cant handle it.

Just like no bank is immune from the losses that are coming in the future, no broker is prepared for mass fear events. It's costly to maintain the infrastructure to allow everyone everywhere all at once access.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
ktownag08
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AG
Yeah, I'm still locked out of Schwab where I do all my short term trading. Super annoying, but can't do anything about it.
Jack Boyett
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AG
Tradovate is working fine. My TOS is a POS as mentioned above.
Fightin_Aggie
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AG
AgEng06 said:

Let me just pile on and complain that TOS is down.
Yes my thinkorswim is neither thinking nor swimming
Stat Monitor Repairman
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Been talking about for years how if the **** ever goes down retail investors would be locked out of their account while institutional investors trade in the background.

That looks to be what is happening now.
Definitely Not A Cop
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AG
Are there any platforms left where you pay to play? I have to assume they would have to allow more access, right?
Talon2DSO
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AG
It is Coordinated. Only institutional traders and hedge funds are allowed to trade while we get left high and dry. Retail traders are about to get f***ed
El_duderino
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Finally able to get into ToS and can transact on vanguard.
jagvocate
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AG
12-Sigma event on the VIX earlier today

giddings_ag_06
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AG
I've been trading just fine on ToS and I'm just a little guy. I'm also in a rural area.
Quacked
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I have a smaller robinhood account and all my trades that INITIATED last night were taken back. Bought 100 shares of AMD at 115$. Poof not there this morning
Hunter_812
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AG
E*trade has been working all morning.
TheVarian
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AG
Fidelity is fine on a desktop or laptop
Chef Elko
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AG
That's messed up. I've traded RH overnight and if there's any significant amount of volume it can crash. I believe if swings are 5%+ they halt trading on that particular stock. I had an overnight order say it wasn't filled but then saw it in my account later, maybe this sorts itself out today.
El Chupacabra
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BABA order hit at 74.5

Not sure if I want to log into my account(s), probably not buying much today and not sure I want to see the further carnage.
SF2004
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

I'm going to say this one last time.

This is not a flash crash. Go look at how much the market sold off on Black Monday. If this were that, we'd be down MUCH MUCH more.

We are likely in the very beginning of a change of dynamic. A period that will have violent moves in both directions. If you are buying equities, you might be providing liquidity to sellers and margin calls.

Every bounce from this point should be treated as corrective, meaning a retracement of a previous down move. If you are anything but short term trading playing a bounce, you are risking a lot. Please use stops. But understand, we are in a massive short gamma regime with volatility that hasnt been seen since 2020. Bid and ask spreads when you try to sell could be very wide and your stops might not trigger at the level you think they will. This goes for today and the short term moving forward.

In times like this, you do not want to be in the large crowd rushing through a small door.

Please be careful.

All of that said, there WILL be bounces. If not, you will start to see Black Monday type selling. And we haven't seen that yet, even with how crazy last night and this morning has been.
Fellow Ags... Please Please Please listen to beer guy.

It has been a great ride the last decade and then the super covid recovery sent it to overdrive.

The fundamentals are not there to continue this and it had to end at some point. Rate cuts are a sign of a weakening economy and NOT something good. Companies trading at 300 P/E is not sustainable with out huge fed intervention.

Value investing might be king for a bit.
CC09LawAg
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This has been a very educational day.

Still expecting it to get worse.
Ragoo
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AG
CC09LawAg said:

This has been a very educational day.

Still expecting it to get worse.
sat on my hands. Feels trappy
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:

Ags2013 said:

Futures are brutal

Who's wagering on lower vs rally tomorrow?


I'll play.

Brutal open, slow recovery to mildly red or sideways close.
Will it be???
CC09LawAg
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I agree - it seems to be getting stuck in that 518-520 range. I'm not buying it after the sell off the past couple days prior to all this doom and gloom news.

But we shall see.
BenTheGoodAg
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AG
SF2004 said:

Value investing might be king for a bit.
Tex117
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

I'm going to say this one last time.

This is not a flash crash. Go look at how much the market sold off on Black Monday. If this were that, we'd be down MUCH MUCH more.

We are likely in the very beginning of a change of dynamic. A period that will have violent moves in both directions. If you are buying equities, you might be providing liquidity to sellers and margin calls.

Every bounce from this point should be treated as corrective, meaning a retracement of a previous down move. If you are anything but short term trading playing a bounce, you are risking a lot. Please use stops. But understand, we are in a massive short gamma regime with volatility that hasnt been seen since 2020. Bid and ask spreads when you try to sell could be very wide and your stops might not trigger at the level you think they will. This goes for today and the short term moving forward.

In times like this, you do not want to be in the large crowd rushing through a small door.

Please be careful.

All of that said, there WILL be bounces. If not, you will start to see Black Monday type selling. And we haven't seen that yet, even with how crazy last night and this morning has been.
Can you do a daily post Heineken? Your insight is worth is worthy of its own thread. (Im only half kidding, but I do look for your posts).

GeorgiAg
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AG
BenTheGoodAg said:

SF2004 said:

Value investing might be king for a bit.

My thought too.
gougler08
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AG
Ragoo said:

CC09LawAg said:

This has been a very educational day.

Still expecting it to get worse.
sat on my hands. Feels trappy


Only bought a few things in first 5 min, not buying at these levels now
Chef Elko
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AG
Same, not adding more and some of my lower priced orders didn't fill, keeping them open though. Waiting for a rug pull but the vix is so damn high I feel it's foolish to buy puts.
TxAG#2011
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This actually reads a lot like a major fund has blown up. Seemingly no narrative for the crash other than "we may be entering a recession" and no action yet from the FED.

This may just be an isolated incident.
Brewmaster
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AG
well silver lining, good to see so many posters back here

the market trapping retail buyers, lol...

Heineken-Ashi
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TxAG#2011 said:

This actually reads a lot like a major fund has blown up. Seemingly no narrative for the crash other than "we may be entering a recession" and no action yet from the FED.

This may just be an isolated incident.
It could be anything. But attributing news or causality to mass market sentiment is a fools errand. Daily swings might correlate like the JPY situation. But in 2022, JPY bottomed and moved up at the same time equities did. There simply isn't a long term correlation there, only a "sometimes" short one. Which means that it's likely not a cause, merely a temporary correlation.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Quacked
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My ones done before midnight went through. I got an email that 2am through was cancelled, weird cause they went through and I physically possessed the shares

Took it as a sign and set them 20% lower.
Brewmaster
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AG
POWL green in a sea of red, SMCI threatening to go green..

El Chupacabra
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Damn...finally got into my account...Wed and Fri last week were way worse for me
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Well my Roth is green on the day thanks to buying the dip on TNA, TQQQ, SSO, SMCI, NVDA.

Granted, I had to sell something at a loss to do so, but, hey.

(It was at -11% at the open.)
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