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ProgN
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EliteZags said:

If TexAgs can blast every online poll on the web this crew could prob contribute some influence to pushing a small name into meme/cult stock territory on WSB


I'm perma'd on Twitter and never been on Reddit so even though we're thinking the same thing, I have to leave it to others to keep bringing it up on WSB.
Nagler
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AG
I didn't do that because I was going to be rich. Now I'm still poor.
ProgN
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Heineken-Ashi said:



Where people make the biggest mistake is buying calls, because they don't understand gamma or theta. Calls are extremely punishing if a stock isn't constantly pushing up or you are well in the money. Low gamma and low volatility will crush premium. Theta will crush more and more as time runs out. Also, people tend to spend the most money buying calls and puts during volatile time periods like FOMC and earnings.. where even being right can get you wiped out as you bought into high volatility and will be selling, potentially not even in the money, at low volatility.

For those that aren't experienced options traders AND don't have reliable methods that can identify market trends, it's best to stick with buying shares, setting good stops, and setting targets. And then you have to follow through on selling when your target is hit and moving on. Either that, or follow someone who has a good track record of successful options plays and be willing to bank your success entirely on them.


This is excellent advice and is the reason that I don't rec options on here. Yes, I do use options in my personal account, but not always. The one's that haven't panned out was just a tax loss offset. The ones that hit, are nice, but the ones that don't is a hickey, not a catastrophic loss. I buy shares 90% of the time and will leverage with options if the setup looks borderline erotic. Never blindly follow anyone with your real money. There are no sure things in this market and I refuse to be the one that one of you trusted and followed an options trade that blew up your account.
Heineken-Ashi
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Heineken-Ashi said:

El_duderino said:

NVDA looks to be going with your #3 expectation after holding above yesterdays low and pushing back up
Could be. But it's actually forming a nice downside setup. Yesterdays low would be the Wave 1 with today being the Wave 2. Pointing down. Confirmation would be a hold under $133 and then follow through downward breaking yesterday's low.

Like I said yesterday, expiring options were likely to be shaken out in both directions today. Support is $125 and resistance is $133, followed by mid $137's, then ATH.


Flashback to July 12. I outlined the above for NVDA. It took a bit longer (don't I always say not to make any assumptions based on my charted timing?) and got a little bit lower, but ultimately followed the general path. Not the cleanest count as there were some weird humps along the way. But it fits and doesn't break any rules.



Now, like I said earlier today, there's a large range of paths this can now take. I laid out 5 possibilities this morning that made me pause due to the uncertainty. It took the immediately lower route and reversed back up hard with that sexy V we like to see. But not out of the woods. Those same options are still available. And because it got a lower low below my support, there's actually a much deeper bearish option on the table, where the recent low would be counted as merely the 3rd wave in a downward 5-wave pattern signaling that the top is in and the major correction has started. But what are the other options?

A. Very impulsive to new highs. Very little overlap along the way. Look at the move up on the left side of the chart and think something like that.

B. 3-wave bounce (of which is it in the initial move and resistance is the June 25th low of $115). This path would have it selloff under that point targeting $90.

C. Larger corrective bounce back up targeting anywhere between $119 and ATH. As long as in that range, in any pattern other than a clearly impulsive 5-wave upward structure, and we can count today's low as a larger A wave in a deeper selloff downward 3-wave pattern that would eventually target $75-$90.

D. Something far more sinister and complicated that would make this a longer sideways correction, neither getting to new highs or significant new lows and taking months to do so.

This is where people get frustrated with Elliott Wave. Because I'm telling you that anything can happen. "Oh wize wizard, way to go out on a limb". I get it. But like I've said time and again, I'm not going to align my money with something that doesn't show me a probable or clear leading path. I will simply wait for a point of clarity where I feel like I can jump in relatively safely, either short term or long term, and feel confident.

What I can say is that if you are long, or you want to be long, but don't want to hold for a deeper correction, your stop should be at $99.99.

Maybe we get some clarity tomorrow. If so, I will post which path seems more likely.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
SMCI and NVDA...talmbout.
Talon2DSO
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AG
My cost basis in NVDA is $118.59. With this down trend, I'm going to see what happens today and try to sell at break even then buy back in when it dips below $100. It may have a decent bounce today with a longer trend down to $98.

POWL is on a rocket.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Crazy premarket. This could be rocket ship day or crazy downside reversal day
Talon2DSO
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AG
Anyone playing the ARM earnings day today?
aggiebrad16
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AG
I have quite a bit of MSFT and NVDA I've got pretty low basis in. I've held long term both (by some stroke of luck). Yesterday in an effort to hedge a bad print from MSFT I bought SQQQ. I want to hold it through the day today and here's my thesis- if there's any sign of floundering from Powell on rate cuts, QQQ is obliterated. If he signals we're staying the course… well QQQ probably stay relatively flat since everything is so baked in. So all our risk is to the downside today (factoring in the 2% premarket which is hurting my SQQQ but that's totally fine).

So it's just a hedge that if something goes wrong today and my NVDA and MSFT go wonky, I'll have some downside protection. Thoughts on this?
El Chupacabra
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

SMCI and NVDA...talmbout.
705 now...dipped to 635 (or maybe 645...either way) after market yesterday
hedge
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Well we opened up nice, I expect a full reversal by 10am
CC09LawAg
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POWL just ripped through the last high it had since the selloff.

I'm sure we can expect some pullback today but it's a solid start.
M4 Benelli
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Cashed in my chips, can't ask for a better day.
Heineken-Ashi
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If POWL now can't get over $199, it could theoretically form a H&S pattern. I don't view it as likely at this point, but it's possible.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
South Platte
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Same. I wish everyday was POWL earnings day.
Twisted Helix
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Thanks Prog. I got in at 143 and out this am at 180. Changed the chart and won't look at it again for a while. That covered a lot of dumbassery from me over the last couple of months.
Now, when are NVDA and SMCI going to takeoff?
Talon2DSO
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AG
Can someone post the earnings sched for this week pls?
Dale Earnhardts Stache
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AG
El Chupacabra said:

El_duderino said:

Also a bit early being Thursday, but big earnings next week with 4 of the Mag7 reporting


MSFT and AMD


For Talon
Talon2DSO
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AG
Sold POWL (20 shares at $177.35) bought ARM (15 shares at $139.32).

ARM has earnings today.
Talon2DSO
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AG
Thanks pal!
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Well my Roth account is doing well today.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
+10% on NVDA on the day, for a total gain of ... 1%.

But hey, profit is profit.
El Chupacabra
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

+10% on NVDA on the day, for a total gain of ... 1%.

But hey, profit is profit.
Still in the red...
Heineken-Ashi
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Was wrong about ALB yesterday. Earning are after close today. Will watch after FOMC and make decision whether to enter. $111 would be my lowest target if a bounce engages. But earnings on this one have led to some $20 price swings before.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Talon2DSO
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AG
El Chupacabra said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

+10% on NVDA on the day, for a total gain of ... 1%.

But hey, profit is profit.
Still in the red...


Same here. I may sell once it's green, then buy back in as it falls back. Not sure it breaches the $116 mark today.
Heineken-Ashi
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ARM - Held key support area yesterday. Earnings could take it back to $150 if it doesn't get there before close. Not overly confident as next support is $108.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
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Option B for NVDA is technically invalidated, though I'd like to see it push a little higher to leave no doubt. Still, we're slimming down the options already. Still not enough clarity to identify longer trend.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
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Crude Oil might have put in a low. Something to watch.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
El_duderino
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Good chance SPY gap fills to that $553 now that it's pushed through the $547 and $549 levels, but not taking the risks with new gap down at $541.95 and FOMC today.
Heineken-Ashi
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1 Year yield at 4.79%
2 Year yield at 4.35%
10 Year yield at 4.10%

Fed Funds at 5.25% - 5.5% since middle of last year.

Bond market is leading as always. Another 50bps drop in those and the FEd has no choice but to act. Not enough spread yet for them to cut today. If they were to cut today, it would be one of the most bearish signals in modern history as it would confirm imminent recession fears.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
El Chupacabra
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At long last, back even on NOV.

Added a bit of MO.
Talon2DSO
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

1 Year yield at 4.79%
2 Year yield at 4.35%
10 Year yield at 4.10%

Fed Funds at 5.25% - 5.5% since middle of last year.

Bond market is leading as always. Another 50bps drop in those and the FEd has no choice but to act. Not enough spread yet for them to cut today. If they were to cut today, it would be one of the most bearish signals in modern history as it would confirm imminent recession fears.


I've gone to cash today. Sold the green and low loss reds. Holding cash to buy in when we have the next pull back. I don't think they cut today but I also don't believe they'll project confidence.
Dale Earnhardts Stache
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AG
Thanks to Prog for the POWL call.

Are we taking profits on POWL? Or do we think there is room left to run?
fauxstradamus
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AG
HUMA approaching that previous high at $9. I believe earnings on 8/12 and FDA approval decision on 8/10. Really hoping this thing takes off soon.

And thanks Prog for POWL. Those 200 shares feeling great today!
AgCPA95
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AG
Dale Earnhardts Stache said:

Thanks to Prog for the POWL call.

Are we taking profits on POWL? Or do we think there is room left to run?
There are lot smarter folks and better stock analyzers on here but here is my $.02 ignoring all other market factors.

After last quarter their trailing 12 month EPS was $8.59 and they ran to $209. After this quarter trailing 12 month EPS is $10.65 so a trailing 12 multiple is $259 per share. If they could maintain just $3.00 per quarter for awhile that is $12 annual EPS and 25x (what their trailing multiple has been around) gets you to $300. I'm not selling.
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