Heineken-Ashi said:
El_duderino said:
NVDA looks to be going with your #3 expectation after holding above yesterdays low and pushing back up
Could be. But it's actually forming a nice downside setup. Yesterdays low would be the Wave 1 with today being the Wave 2. Pointing down. Confirmation would be a hold under $133 and then follow through downward breaking yesterday's low.
Like I said yesterday, expiring options were likely to be shaken out in both directions today. Support is $125 and resistance is $133, followed by mid $137's, then ATH.
Flashback to July 12. I outlined the above for NVDA. It took a bit longer (don't I always say not to make any assumptions based on my charted timing?) and got a little bit lower, but ultimately followed the general path. Not the cleanest count as there were some weird humps along the way. But it fits and doesn't break any rules.
Now, like I said earlier today, there's a large range of paths this can now take. I laid out 5 possibilities this morning that made me pause due to the uncertainty. It took the immediately lower route and reversed back up hard with that sexy V we like to see. But not out of the woods. Those same options are still available. And because it got a lower low below my support, there's actually a much deeper bearish option on the table, where the recent low would be counted as merely the 3rd wave in a downward 5-wave pattern signaling that the top is in and the major correction has started. But what are the other options?
A. Very impulsive to new highs. Very little overlap along the way. Look at the move up on the left side of the chart and think something like that.
B. 3-wave bounce (of which is it in the initial move and resistance is the June 25th low of $115). This path would have it selloff under that point targeting $90.
C. Larger corrective bounce back up targeting anywhere between $119 and ATH. As long as in that range, in any pattern other than a clearly impulsive 5-wave upward structure, and we can count today's low as a larger A wave in a deeper selloff downward 3-wave pattern that would eventually target $75-$90.
D. Something far more sinister and complicated that would make this a longer sideways correction, neither getting to new highs or significant new lows and taking months to do so.
This is where people get frustrated with Elliott Wave. Because I'm telling you that anything can happen. "Oh wize wizard, way to go out on a limb". I get it. But like I've said time and again, I'm not going to align my money with something that doesn't show me a probable or clear leading path. I will simply wait for a point of clarity where I feel like I can jump in relatively safely, either short term or long term, and feel confident.
What I can say is that if you are long, or you want to be long, but don't want to hold for a deeper correction, your stop should be at $99.99.
Maybe we get some clarity tomorrow. If so, I will post which path seems more likely.
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