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23,962,310 Views | 231524 Replies | Last: 22 min ago by I bleed maroon
Heineken-Ashi
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One scenario I'm watching for tomorrow is the IWM/QQQ relationship. Q's have been beaten down and earnings are a smattering of good, bad, and meh. IWM has been riding high with flying trash leading the charge. We could see that relationship pivot back to where it was before the last couple of weeks, with Q's going back up to previous high and IWM falling back into chop. Not guaranteed at all, but Q's are oversold and IWM has a beautiful downward setup. Certainly a weird dynamic to have both follow the same path over the short term.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
CC09LawAg
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That is fair. I'm trying to think it through realistic possibilities that will play out over 2 weeks. I don't think I'd sell the calls until early next week if I do - not sure how high this thing is going to go and I really, really don't want to let my shares go.

You're right though, it may just be another example of short sighted thinking which has cost me enough money already.
ProgN
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CC09LawAg said:

Thank you not only for the recommendation but for checking in and keeping tabs and answering questions.

I will make some money off of this but in the 2 1/2 months I started watching and following this play I have learned a million lessons. I should've made a boat load of money but I'm going to be happy with the gains I did get and the knowledge gained.
I really do enjoy doing what I can for y'all and enjoy seeing everyone's success.
Heineken-Ashi
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CC09LawAg said:

That is fair. I'm trying to think it through realistic possibilities that will play out over 2 weeks. I don't think I'd sell the calls until early next week if I do - not sure how high this thing is going to go and I really, really don't want to let my shares go.

You're right though, it may just be another example of short sighted thinking which has cost me enough money already.
Then don't even give yourself the chance. It could be a great opportunity to make some money with low risk. But if you want the shares over anything else, then just ride it out.

I remember back in 2021, I sold CLOV $11 calls for like $2.50 each when OA was pounding the table that it would go to $20.

I ended up being unable to sell the shares well above $20 after it continued to spike, and by the time the calls expired, I still had my shares and never got the chance to sell them again, as I watched them bleed down and kept telling myself it would come back.

ProgN and I are on the same page.. have your target in mind and let it go when your plan plays out. Take the gains and move them to the next bullish play and compound on them.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Can we please get SMCI above $800 now? Help a brother out. (Talking to the market gods, not this board.)
CC09LawAg
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That is 100% my fear - I don't want to get locked in and watch it crater and have to ride this cycle again for 2 months. My thinking was to try to hedge that risk by selling the August date vs. the September date. But now that I look back on what it did after Q1 vs Q2 I think you're right.

I will go dig in my couch cushions to find some money instead. Thanks.
TheVarian
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AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:

Can we please get SMCI above $800 now? Help a brother out. (Talking to the market gods, not this board.)


Brewmaster
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AG
fwiw, I gave up on selling CC's. I sucked at it. Setting stops and not falling in love with anything has worked a lot better for me.
Chef Elko
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AG
Thanks Prog!
CC09LawAg
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My logic may be wrong here, but I have lost my ass trying to buy calls/puts. Entirely my own fault due to lack of discipline with stop losses and what not.

My thought is with selling calls/puts, if you're doing it with stocks you don't actually mind holding, at least if you screw up you still have an asset at the end, even if it's depreciated to some degree - if you screw up buying calls/puts, they expire and you are left with nothing.
South Platte
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My plan is to hold POWL tomorrow through what could be a wild day. I'm nearly 100% guaranteed to chicken out and sell once I see where it opens.
Chef Elko
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AG
Hopefully Mr. Thomas W. Powell is a huge TAMU football fan
EliteZags
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AG

in honor of PYPL actually keeping it up this time (as well as being one of my only other greens today), and POWL not turning out this way, here's a throwback to the epic Q1 earnings reaction:

Heineken-Ashi
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CC09LawAg said:

My logic may be wrong here, but I have lost my ass trying to buy calls/puts. Entirely my own fault due to lack of discipline with stop losses and what not.

My thought is with selling calls/puts, if you're doing it with stocks you don't actually mind holding, at least if you screw up you still have an asset at the end, even if it's depreciated to some degree - if you screw up buying calls/puts, they expire and you are left with nothing.
Selling puts - must be willing to own at strike level.
Buying puts - must feel confident price will land at expiration below your strike+premiu paid.
Selling calls - must be willing to lose shares at strike
Buying calls - must feel confident stock will land at expiration above your strike+premium paid.

Where people make the biggest mistake is buying calls, because they don't understand gamma or theta. Calls are extremely punishing if a stock isn't constantly pushing up or you are well in the money. Low gamma and low volatility will crush premium. Theta will crush more and more as time runs out. Also, people tend to spend the most money buying calls and puts during volatile time periods like FOMC and earnings.. where even being right can get you wiped out as you bought into high volatility and will be selling, potentially not even in the money, at low volatility.

For those that aren't experienced options traders AND don't have reliable methods that can identify market trends, it's best to stick with buying shares, setting good stops, and setting targets. And then you have to follow through on selling when your target is hit and moving on. Either that, or follow someone who has a good track record of successful options plays and be willing to bank your success entirely on them.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
El Chupacabra
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Well, wish I had gone big on POWL, but happy with the tiny position I had.
CC09LawAg
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Heineken-Ashi said:


For those that aren't experienced options traders AND don't have reliable methods that can identify market trends, it's best to stick with buying shares, setting good stops, and setting targets. And then you have to follow through on selling when your target is hit and moving on. Either that, or follow someone who has a good track record of successful options plays and be willing to bank your success entirely on them.
Yes, deep down I know this to be true, but this takes so much time, patience and so much more capital! And then there is always the Monday morning quarterbacking on how much I could have made had I just done ___ differently....

But I am coming around. I've seen my account fluctuate from high highs and low lows and it's taken a toll on me. I don't have it in me to live that rollercoaster every day. I think the style above is much more forgiving.

POWL has made me see the light. Had I done that right, I could have basically doubled whatever I put into it. But I was a combination of impatient, inexperienced, and panicked.
jamey
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AG
El Chupacabra said:

Well, wish I had gone big on POWL, but happy with the tiny position I had.


Same here but I did manage to increase my position 50% today

Now I got 6 whole shares

Heineken-Ashi
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CC09LawAg said:

Heineken-Ashi said:


For those that aren't experienced options traders AND don't have reliable methods that can identify market trends, it's best to stick with buying shares, setting good stops, and setting targets. And then you have to follow through on selling when your target is hit and moving on. Either that, or follow someone who has a good track record of successful options plays and be willing to bank your success entirely on them.
Yes, deep down I know this to be true, but this takes so much time, patience and so much more capital! And then there is always the Monday morning quarterbacking on how much I could have made had I just done ___ differently....

But I am coming around. I've seen my account fluctuate from high highs and low lows and it's taken a toll on me. I don't have it in me to live that rollercoaster every day. I think the style above is much more forgiving.

POWL has made me see the light. Had I done that right, I could have basically doubled whatever I put into it. But I was a combination of impatient, inexperienced, and panicked.
It takes money to make money. Calls are sexy because of the promise if huge paydays when they play out. But unless you are a pro, most people lose far more than they make, even when they hit the jackpot on a handful.

I know some very experienced traders who play a lot of options and are banging their head against a wall 60-75% of the time, constantly having to re-assess their strategy vs the engrained human psychology. Even with a top tier system, it can be PAINFUL for long periods.

The get rich quick scheme is for the very lucky few. The rest of us need build with smart choices, honest risk assessment, and a thorough plan.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
CC09LawAg
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Which I knew going in, but it took some heavy losses and soul searching to finally accept.

I imagine most people with the money to even play this game have to be fairly successful in whatever endeavor they take in life, so it's a little hard to swallow your pride and admit that you're getting your ass kicked and maybe this just isn't for you. Especially when you still win big sometimes, it keeps the hope alive.

I'm chalking it up to money well spent and in the grand scheme of my life it won't seem like much in the long run. That's what I'm telling myself anyways.
bmoochie
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AG
These words I have told myself over and over yet I don't listen. I'm in the midst of probably my 3rd or 4th hiatus of the year and just semi watching market but still following the thread. I think this time it's finally clicked with all my frustrations to get it through my thick skull. I told my lurker friend (you know who you are!) that I was done for a few weeks and he responded "cool see you Friday" haha. Dick. But I'm determined to figure this thing out.

BES posted his spreadsheet a few days back with his small % gains and that really helped visually see it can be done slow and steady. Won't do leveraged plays like him but it's good to see it visually.

I do know I have learned a lot from this thread and it's incredibly valuable and a ton of knowledge. Everyone just needs to find their style and strategy and stick to it.

Thanks for coming to my ted talk.
CC09LawAg
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The hard part is when you've dug a huge hole, the only way out (quickly) is the same game that got you into trouble in the first place.

Slow and steady hurts a lot more when you're just shrinking a giant red number that seems infinite when you're attacking it with nibbles. But it beats making the number even bigger.
bmoochie
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AG
It's easy when the number is zero and you just start over multiple times like me. Jk that's awful too lol
I bleed maroon
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This is probably H-A's best post ever (in the running for the best post overall on this thread), and should be required reading by all who dare to read this thread. In fact, I'd replace the original poster's lead-off post, and put this in its' place.

Well, done, H-A! Succinct, accurate, and very helpful for casual readers especially.
Charismatic Megafauna
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What are you doing during your hiatuses? Not trading? FJ used to tell us seat time is crucial. If you're serious about this scale back rather than taking time off. Maybe even paper trade and read a trading book, but don't completely walk away
bmoochie
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AG
Just not trading. Still watching. Trying to identify setups and talking with my buddy as I'm able. Haven't watched last few days as I was on vacation but I am definitely still watching and trying backtest different things and charting.
plowe32
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AG
Hey Heineken, what's your current sentiment on SLV?
El_duderino
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WSB taking notice of POWL. Saw posts about it for the first time ever over the last week, and then even more today after they crushed earnings.
Lee Van Cleef
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Lee Van Cleef said:



If anyone is looking to diversify with a healthcare play, take a peek at Transmedics TMDX. They are killing it in the world of organ transplant technology. They recently purchased an aviation company (recall being about 6-8 months ago) to maximize opportunities for their OCS (Organ Care Systems = mimics the human body) and control logistics/costs. They reported after the bell the Monday before last and blew away earnings on the quarter plus massive raised guidance (still sandbagging in my opinion) The kicker is that a random Arizona congressman made unfounded accusations on the company a few days/week prior to earnings which blindsided TMDX leadership and the market. Stinks of impropriety on the Congressman's part/competitor's part.

The share price has barely budged even with the earnings domination. TMDX had an investors conference yesterday (5 plus % pop) and has another conference next week. I expect significant share price gains over the next month. However, this is a long term hold/play for me. The aviation company purchase is the economic moat and they have displayed incredible agility in its handling the last 6-8 months with early returns having impact on the bottom line with "runway" due to the future acquisition of more planes.
All, TMDX is reporting their Second Quarter 2024 Results after the bell Wednesday. It's up nearly 64% from this early March post. They have continued to add planes to their active fleet. Thinking the current daily active planes will be reported to be 11-13 (9 reported last earnings call) with the goal of 15-20 operational aircraft by year end 2024. Pull up a 3 month chart and you will see an exceptional base that has been built. This is such an exciting company with their Organ Care System technology coupled with the aviation/aviation infrastructure to revolutionize organ transplants in the U.S.
FishrCoAg
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AG
ProgN said:

CC09LawAg said:

Thank you not only for the recommendation but for checking in and keeping tabs and answering questions.

I will make some money off of this but in the 2 1/2 months I started watching and following this play I have learned a million lessons. I should've made a boat load of money but I'm going to be happy with the gains I did get and the knowledge gained.
I really do enjoy doing what I can for y'all and enjoy seeing everyone's success.


Just another word of appreciation, along with a middle finger to the folks that were whining earlier about POWL, SMCI, etc being down for a few days.
Heineken-Ashi
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plowe32 said:

Hey Heineken, what's your current sentiment on SLV?


It's looking good. I'd like night monkeys to continue to push it higher. I want that non-overlapping lightning look all the way to $30+ followed by no lower than a 61.8% correction to follow.

Tomorrow will be crazy. If this pattern in both equities and metals keeps looking like 2007, SLV could get bullish very fast.

I'm keeping the bear case in my mind though. Market might try to obfuscate. Tomorrow futures roll and it's usually a volatile period.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Heineken-Ashi
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Don't forget team, ALB reports before the bell. I said on my last post about it following Progn's intro post that I could see $86. Nothing has changed. But it got close enough. I might for 25% of a position in case it explodes upward. Will post if I do tomorrow.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
ProgN
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El_duderino said:

WSB taking notice of POWL. Saw posts about it for the first time ever over the last week, and then even more today after they crushed earnings.


I hope WSB start playing in it, with POWL's small float and earnings almost 19% short interest it'd explode.
EliteZags
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AG
If TexAgs can blast every online poll on the web this crew could prob contribute some influence to pushing a small name into meme/cult stock territory on WSB
sts7049
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AG
texags failed to do that with WWR
WoMD
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sts7049 said:

texags failed to do that with WWR

It actually skyrocketed for a short time before it cratered to all time lows. I think it got up around $10. I was stupid for selling enough to go net free, then rebuying as it started dropping. And again. And again. All the way down. Part of that was that I forgot I set buys at lows I didn't think it would actually hit.

Yeah, I'm stooped...

Yeah...
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