I let most of my SMCI go around 1100. Still have an average below 400 even with the recent buys. Most of those are the same except for ALB. I started buying into it a few months ago and just got my average down to 105. Ready to get it below 100 when it goes below 90! Thanks again for all the info
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Last: 17 hrs ago by jamey
gougler08 said:Yeah to be clear I have an alert at 90 so I'll take a look and make a call on if it looks like a quick dip or something more sustainedHeineken-Ashi said:I'd lower stop to mid $80's. Unless you are willing to take a small loss and re-engage slightly lower.gougler08 said:ALB continues to hold $90 as a firm floor, seems prime for a run up. I'm in for shares with a stop at $90Quacked said:
Sure a lot of them were your recommendations, rest are just some I've had set for pullback to buy more
Trickling back into AMD $139
Next at $121
sMCI $788 & $692
Next at $652
ALB $91
Next $88 & $86
POWL $129
Next $122
Ford $11.48
Goog $169
This is what I'm going to do. When I did my writeup for the thread I said that it appears to building a strong base around $90. It is, but it also is still in the downtrend. I think it's trying to establish a floor, because several of my favorite indicators are looking very good. That said, their ER is 7/31 AH, so I will not buy it until I see what that says, even if it spikes higher. I don't mind paying up for them if they beat. If they disappoint then it'll go lower due to not having support. It will do a golden cross in the near future and a spike higher due to good earnings/guidance should confirm a reversal and strong support at this $90 area.
The market is dropping into the close. The rotation from growth to value continues and dip buyers are going to have their resolve tested.
Brutal close
ouchie
Question for the board: we filled the Friday/Monday gap up at the open yesterday (maroon), but in doing so, there's now a new gap at $553.72 (orange). Decent chance SPY fills the 6/11 gap at $536.95 and then pushes back up to fill that $553.72 gap?
Also a bit early being Thursday, but big earnings next week with 4 of the Mag7 reporting
What a beating this week.
Glad I've had cash, but now I'm concerned my limits should've been way lower.
Glad I've had cash, but now I'm concerned my limits should've been way lower.
$NEWP put in a strong RDR hammer today, with a possible double bottom, with signifcant RS. Pretty good sign and can possibly trade against todays low.
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Charismatic Megafauna said:
Great chart i just found on twitter. I didn't go far enough back with my major support line
Lost this and still about a quarter shy of filling the 6/11 gap. Guess it's gonna be more pain
Yes and yes would be my vote. I think you get an overshoot down past the 536 gap. April's sell off was a 2 week drop back to the 100 day. If we do that, we could be in 5300 territory. This sell off so far seems to have the energy for that. Although I did add a couple positions today, we shall see.El_duderino said:
Question for the board: we filled the Friday/Monday gap up at the open yesterday (maroon), but in doing so, there's now a new gap at $553.72 (orange). Decent chance SPY fills the 6/11 gap at $536.95 and then pushes back up to fill that $553.72 gap?
Kind of a unique spot where it filled a gap while also creating a new one. I'm trying to go back and see if I can find another occurrence.
The 6/11 gap is a vacuum though. Prefer to just see it filled at the open tomorrow and then see the $553 gap filled and pushed through with big earnings next week. Gap higher at $564.84 too. This current pullback has been a 5% elevator down in very short time.
The 6/11 gap is a vacuum though. Prefer to just see it filled at the open tomorrow and then see the $553 gap filled and pushed through with big earnings next week. Gap higher at $564.84 too. This current pullback has been a 5% elevator down in very short time.
Getting closer. If you aren't in yet, the R/R is getting awesome.
And here's the original thesis. Can't remember if I posted here late last year.
This was the early 2000's.
When I found this setup, I noticed each move had the same relationship since 2016 that this early 2000's setup had.
Here's our current chart.
Risk/reward is your own call. But the setup is nearly identical
And here's the original thesis. Can't remember if I posted here late last year.
This was the early 2000's.
When I found this setup, I noticed each move had the same relationship since 2016 that this early 2000's setup had.
Here's our current chart.
Risk/reward is your own call. But the setup is nearly identical
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Which calls were you looking at on these? May have missed that on previous posts, although I know I've seen the SLV ones.
As always, appreciate the insight (and understand the risk falls on me)!
As always, appreciate the insight (and understand the risk falls on me)!
Shares on this one. Not a lot of liquidity in the calls.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
BTC and TNA up 4% overnight
SMCI above yesterdays high could get to $760 rather quickly. And through that, $790 would be next. Need yesterday's low to hold.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Here's the chart I'm watching. I have this in an ending diagonal down which is a choppy overlapping structure. You can see that there's a ton of supply resistance on the chart and not much demand, hence the bearish primary expectation. But we did hold the previous low from April literally at the bottom of my demand support box and the 138.2% downward extension fib (123.7%-138.2% is the common zone for a third wave in a diagonal, hence why its still my primary count). Clutch as hell. Because that low held, there's still potential, yet again, for that one more big pop. But the ceiling on that pop dropped from $1,100 down to $1,000. Even still, that's a LOT of money to make if it makes that move. And above $970, the diagonal is broken.Heineken-Ashi said:
SMCI above yesterdays high could get to $760 rather quickly. And through that, $790 would be next. Need yesterday's low to hold.
So should yesterday's low hold, unfortunately, we just won't know what we have longer term until the next move starts to really take shape. This has been a tough cookie as you all know. Bulls have refused to fully give up and bears can't even get confirmation even on a big selloff. It's a heavy weight fight and I don't expect it to end easily.
Now, should any rally fail and this make another low down to $625 region, then a more standard impulse down becomes probable again, with $735 becoming resistance and $550 being firmly on the table.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Possible mega cap day. Don't be surprised to see Q's up and IWM down.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
BMY and NOV...finally showing some life.
It's about time, for BMY.El Chupacabra said:
BMY and NOV...finally showing some life.
Short story - back in 2010 I analyzed a purchase of either BMY or LLY, and it looked too close to call. So, I split the money between them. 14+ years later, BMY just achieved 100% total cumulative return today (a really crappy outcome), while LLY is up 2200% (even after the past few weeks' stumbles). This goes to show that stock picking matters, I guess (and that I'm no genius).
In on SMCI. Very short term. 100 shares. Looking for $750.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Well this is fun..
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
If you squint your eyes, it looks like the chart is giving us the finger.
Talon2DSO said:
If you squint your eyes, it looks like the chart is giving us the finger.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Rode TNA up from $44 to $49 again. Kicking myself that I didn't buy more instead of taking a hit with SMCI.
SMCI - Every timeframe under 1 hr the 8 has crossed the 21 EMA. They are fighting each other on hourly. If we can get the cross on hourly, I think we start the move up that I bought expecting.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
They're loading NVDA puts like it's going out of business next week.
P/C ratio today is 0.88.Brewmaster said:
They're loading NVDA puts like it's going out of business next week.
What are you seeing?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
3M rocket on earnings today
I've held through the pain of the last several years and hopefully this is the catalyst for the long-term turnaround. Weekly looks very good.
I've held through the pain of the last several years and hopefully this is the catalyst for the long-term turnaround. Weekly looks very good.
TSLA ripping
trying next week calls
trying next week calls
NVDA
August monthlies seem to have the biggest volume:
130k OI on the 100P and 35k volume today.
August monthlies seem to have the biggest volume:
130k OI on the 100P and 35k volume today.
I had an order for 215 dammit.Brewmaster said:
TSLA ripping
trying next week calls
I'm seeing .99 ratio for August monthly and the drops to .7 for September monthly with traders likely expecting a push up with earnings.
SMCI skewed around 1.2 with heavy put resistance at $800, but if it can push through that it's off to the races. Looking at August 9 weekly right after earnings, it's less than 1 and biggest open interest at $850 & $1000 call strikes. That $1000 strike is the largest call OI across several expiries.
SMCI skewed around 1.2 with heavy put resistance at $800, but if it can push through that it's off to the races. Looking at August 9 weekly right after earnings, it's less than 1 and biggest open interest at $850 & $1000 call strikes. That $1000 strike is the largest call OI across several expiries.
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