gougler08 said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

gougler08 said:

---

Quacked said:

---

Sure a lot of them were your recommendations, rest are just some I've had set for pullback to buy more

Trickling back into AMD $139
Next at $121

sMCI $788 & $692
Next at $652

ALB $91
Next $88 & $86

POWL $129
Next $122

Ford $11.48
Goog $169

---

ALB continues to hold $90 as a firm floor, seems prime for a run up. I'm in for shares with a stop at $90

---

I'd lower stop to mid $80's. Unless you are willing to take a small loss and re-engage slightly lower.

---

Yeah to be clear I have an alert at 90 so I'll take a look and make a call on if it looks like a quick dip or something more sustained

---

This is what I'm going to do. When I did my writeup for the thread I said that it appears to building a strong base around $90. It is, but it also is still in the downtrend. I think it's trying to establish a floor, because several of my favorite indicators are looking very good. That said, their ER is 7/31 AH, so I will not buy it until I see what that says, even if it spikes higher. I don't mind paying up for them if they beat. If they disappoint then it'll go lower due to not having support. It will do a golden cross in the near future and a spike higher due to good earnings/guidance should confirm a reversal and strong support at this $90 area.

The market is dropping into the close. The rotation from growth to value continues and dip buyers are going to have their resolve tested.

Brutal close

ouchie

Question for the board: we filled the Friday/Monday gap up at the open yesterday (maroon), but in doing so, there's now a new gap at $553.72 (orange). Decent chance SPY fills the 6/11 gap at $536.95 and then pushes back up to fill that $553.72 gap?

Also a bit early being Thursday, but big earnings next week with 4 of the Mag7 reporting

What a beating this week.

Glad I've had cash, but now I'm concerned my limits should've been way lower.

$NEWP put in a strong RDR hammer today, with a possible double bottom, with signifcant RS. Pretty good sign and can possibly trade against todays low.

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Great chart i just found on twitter. I didn't go far enough back with my major support line

---

Lost this and still about a quarter shy of filling the 6/11 gap. Guess it's gonna be more pain

El_duderino said:

---

Question for the board: we filled the Friday/Monday gap up at the open yesterday (maroon), but in doing so, there's now a new gap at $553.72 (orange). Decent chance SPY fills the 6/11 gap at $536.95 and then pushes back up to fill that $553.72 gap?

---

Yes and yes would be my vote. I think you get an overshoot down past the 536 gap. April's sell off was a 2 week drop back to the 100 day. If we do that, we could be in 5300 territory. This sell off so far seems to have the energy for that. Although I did add a couple positions today, we shall see.

Kind of a unique spot where it filled a gap while also creating a new one. I'm trying to go back and see if I can find another occurrence.

The 6/11 gap is a vacuum though. Prefer to just see it filled at the open tomorrow and then see the $553 gap filled and pushed through with big earnings next week. Gap higher at $564.84 too. This current pullback has been a 5% elevator down in very short time.

Getting closer. If you aren't in yet, the R/R is getting awesome.



And here's the original thesis. Can't remember if I posted here late last year.

This was the early 2000's.



When I found this setup, I noticed each move had the same relationship since 2016 that this early 2000's setup had.

Here's our current chart.



Risk/reward is your own call. But the setup is nearly identical

Which calls were you looking at on these? May have missed that on previous posts, although I know I've seen the SLV ones.

As always, appreciate the insight (and understand the risk falls on me)!

Shares on this one. Not a lot of liquidity in the calls.

SMCI above yesterdays high could get to $760 rather quickly. And through that, $790 would be next. Need yesterday's low to hold.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

SMCI above yesterdays high could get to $760 rather quickly. And through that, $790 would be next. Need yesterday's low to hold.

---

Here's the chart I'm watching. I have this in an ending diagonal down which is a choppy overlapping structure. You can see that there's a ton of supply resistance on the chart and not much demand, hence the bearish primary expectation. But we did hold the previous low from April literally at the bottom of my demand support box and the 138.2% downward extension fib (123.7%-138.2% is the common zone for a third wave in a diagonal, hence why its still my primary count). Clutch as hell. Because that low held, there's still potential, yet again, for that one more big pop. But the ceiling on that pop dropped from $1,100 down to $1,000. Even still, that's a LOT of money to make if it makes that move. And above $970, the diagonal is broken.

So should yesterday's low hold, unfortunately, we just won't know what we have longer term until the next move starts to really take shape. This has been a tough cookie as you all know. Bulls have refused to fully give up and bears can't even get confirmation even on a big selloff. It's a heavy weight fight and I don't expect it to end easily.

Now, should any rally fail and this make another low down to $625 region, then a more standard impulse down becomes probable again, with $735 becoming resistance and $550 being firmly on the table.

Possible mega cap day. Don't be surprised to see Q's up and IWM down.

BMY and NOV...finally showing some life.

El Chupacabra said:

---

BMY and NOV...finally showing some life.

---

It's about time, for BMY.

Short story - back in 2010 I analyzed a purchase of either BMY or LLY, and it looked too close to call. So, I split the money between them. 14+ years later, BMY just achieved 100% total cumulative return today (a really crappy outcome), while LLY is up 2200% (even after the past few weeks' stumbles). This goes to show that stock picking matters, I guess (and that I'm no genius).

Well this is fun..

Rode TNA up from $44 to $49 again. Kicking myself that I didn't buy more instead of taking a hit with SMCI.

SMCI - Every timeframe under 1 hr the 8 has crossed the 21 EMA. They are fighting each other on hourly. If we can get the cross on hourly, I think we start the move up that I bought expecting.

They're loading NVDA puts like it's going out of business next week.

Brewmaster said:

---

They're loading NVDA puts like it's going out of business next week.

---

P/C ratio today is 0.88.

What are you seeing?

3M rocket on earnings today

I've held through the pain of the last several years and hopefully this is the catalyst for the long-term turnaround. Weekly looks very good.

TSLA ripping
trying next week calls

NVDA
August monthlies seem to have the biggest volume:
130k OI on the 100P and 35k volume today.

Brewmaster said:

---

TSLA ripping
trying next week calls

---

I had an order for 215 dammit.

I'm seeing .99 ratio for August monthly and the drops to .7 for September monthly with traders likely expecting a push up with earnings.

SMCI skewed around 1.2 with heavy put resistance at $800, but if it can push through that it's off to the races. Looking at August 9 weekly right after earnings, it's less than 1 and biggest open interest at $850 & $1000 call strikes. That $1000 strike is the largest call OI across several expiries.