Yep. I was wrong - I looked at the 13F and didn't find any
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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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I think this week is going to be interesting. Tsla earnings. Google earnings. Airlines too.
Quick dive into the ALB balance sheet, mainly looking at Q1-24
They have barely enough cash should they need to pay off their short term debt, accounts payable, and income tax payable. That's fine, as it's rare you would ever need to do that all at once. But if you add up cash, receivables, inventory, and other current assets, it falls short of their total liabilities. While they have relatively low debt, the majority of their total assets is in property/plant/equipment. The overwhelming majority. If you added long term investments (subtracting provision for risk and charge and deferred tax), there's still not enough to cover total liabilities. Again, not a huge deal as its extremely rare that a company would need to divest of all current assets and long term investments to cover liabilities, but it is worth noting.. that they couldn't do it should they need to.
While their current ratio is relatively healthy (current assets / current liabilities), their quick ratio is significantly lower (cash and receiveables / current liab... still moderately healthy). This shows that there's a relevant chunk of their current assets tied up in inventory that can't be relied upon to be sold quickly to cover current liabilities.
Looking all of the valuation metrics and financial metrics, the ones that stick out are negative gross margin and negative operating margin, and low profit margin. This means that they just simply aren't generating high enough revenue to cover expenses and costs of good sold. When you account for capex, their free cash flow margin is -19%. Their revenue is expected to grow <5% per year over the next 5 years. That doesn't move the needle enough to cover expense, tax, and cost of goods growth. And its puts them at significant risk should inflation roar up again. They also don't have available means to buy back shares, so you can throw that out the window for a significant price jump catalyst.. one that this market has significantly relied on to keep share price moving up.
Overall, the company can be considered healthy in the current environment. But you wouldn't consider them safe in a declining environment, and you wouldn't necessarily consider them poised for significant growth in a more benficial economic environment. I believe this is why their valuation has fallen significantly. They just arenlt showing signs of keeping up the previous pace they were on before 2022. They are spending more to make less. Now, that doesn't have to continue forward. This will be a very relevant earnings release coming up. I want to see cash on hand rise, significant steps towards revenue outpacing expenses, more inventory turnover, and a big jump towards positive profitability again. Because companies that can't invest efficiently to turn an actual profit with hopes to keep it growing just aren't likely to succeed in the environment ahead.
All of that aside, stocks don't purely move on fundamentals. This is a beaten down stock trading at a discount to current valuations. That doesn't mean it has to rise, as a weak earnings report with continued declining performance can put the valuation in equillibrium and even show as overvalued. But sentiment is the main driver, and it's incredibly beaten down and in a bottoming pattern. Once sentiment on a company reaches exhaustion in one direction or the other, the pendulum can swing the other way very fast, despite what earnings and metrics might show. You've seen it happen a million times with tons of stocks. I think this one is close to exhaustion, and even the slightest bit of hope for the future, even if the current is weak or unnoteworthy, could lead to a drastic move. Review the chart I posted Friday. Keep the moving averages and trendlines showing when you watch it. Watch RSI and MACD. You will likely see if this is going to start moving up before the fundamental experts are clued in.
They have barely enough cash should they need to pay off their short term debt, accounts payable, and income tax payable. That's fine, as it's rare you would ever need to do that all at once. But if you add up cash, receivables, inventory, and other current assets, it falls short of their total liabilities. While they have relatively low debt, the majority of their total assets is in property/plant/equipment. The overwhelming majority. If you added long term investments (subtracting provision for risk and charge and deferred tax), there's still not enough to cover total liabilities. Again, not a huge deal as its extremely rare that a company would need to divest of all current assets and long term investments to cover liabilities, but it is worth noting.. that they couldn't do it should they need to.
While their current ratio is relatively healthy (current assets / current liabilities), their quick ratio is significantly lower (cash and receiveables / current liab... still moderately healthy). This shows that there's a relevant chunk of their current assets tied up in inventory that can't be relied upon to be sold quickly to cover current liabilities.
Looking all of the valuation metrics and financial metrics, the ones that stick out are negative gross margin and negative operating margin, and low profit margin. This means that they just simply aren't generating high enough revenue to cover expenses and costs of good sold. When you account for capex, their free cash flow margin is -19%. Their revenue is expected to grow <5% per year over the next 5 years. That doesn't move the needle enough to cover expense, tax, and cost of goods growth. And its puts them at significant risk should inflation roar up again. They also don't have available means to buy back shares, so you can throw that out the window for a significant price jump catalyst.. one that this market has significantly relied on to keep share price moving up.
Overall, the company can be considered healthy in the current environment. But you wouldn't consider them safe in a declining environment, and you wouldn't necessarily consider them poised for significant growth in a more benficial economic environment. I believe this is why their valuation has fallen significantly. They just arenlt showing signs of keeping up the previous pace they were on before 2022. They are spending more to make less. Now, that doesn't have to continue forward. This will be a very relevant earnings release coming up. I want to see cash on hand rise, significant steps towards revenue outpacing expenses, more inventory turnover, and a big jump towards positive profitability again. Because companies that can't invest efficiently to turn an actual profit with hopes to keep it growing just aren't likely to succeed in the environment ahead.
All of that aside, stocks don't purely move on fundamentals. This is a beaten down stock trading at a discount to current valuations. That doesn't mean it has to rise, as a weak earnings report with continued declining performance can put the valuation in equillibrium and even show as overvalued. But sentiment is the main driver, and it's incredibly beaten down and in a bottoming pattern. Once sentiment on a company reaches exhaustion in one direction or the other, the pendulum can swing the other way very fast, despite what earnings and metrics might show. You've seen it happen a million times with tons of stocks. I think this one is close to exhaustion, and even the slightest bit of hope for the future, even if the current is weak or unnoteworthy, could lead to a drastic move. Review the chart I posted Friday. Keep the moving averages and trendlines showing when you watch it. Watch RSI and MACD. You will likely see if this is going to start moving up before the fundamental experts are clued in.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Biden out. Chaos to start.
Yep, instability is bad. I expect a 5% drop this week
BTC just fell 1.5% on the news
Is it?
Market dropped 2% on JFK assassination and then ralied 25% over the next year.
Market dropped 2% on JFK assassination and then ralied 25% over the next year.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I don't see it down 5% but I expect a crazy week until it shakes out. If Kamala is it then things will go normal because trump will be favored. If it's Michelle Obama then who knows
I could see it absolutely tanking. Can't rule out anything. But there's just far too many occurrences in history of the market not moving how you expect it to with big news events. I try to not anticipate anymore. It creates a bias where you start to make trading decisions based on emotion and pride instead of staying on the correct side of the trend.backintexas2013 said:
I don't see it down 5% but I expect a crazy week until it shakes out. If Kamala is it then things will go normal because trump will be favored. If it's Michelle Obama then who knows
It's literally the hardest thing to do in trading. It goes against your engrained psychology.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Truman drops out in March of 1952
LBJ drops out March 31, 1968
LBJ drops out March 31, 1968
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I have some puts for the end of the week but other than that I may just watch
How have the last 20 years of presidential election July-Nov periods gone?
2004 election election - late July through election
2008 election - late July through election
2012 election - late July through election
2016 election - late July through election
2020 election - late July through election
2004 election election - late July through election
2008 election - late July through election
2012 election - late July through election
2016 election - late July through election
2020 election - late July through election
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
And perspective..
Yall think this is a crazy time? Crazy election? Politics have never been crazier? Maybe the craziest since 1968. Do we get a repeat of that kind of crazy market and the two years that followed?
Yall think this is a crazy time? Crazy election? Politics have never been crazier? Maybe the craziest since 1968. Do we get a repeat of that kind of crazy market and the two years that followed?
Green is late July through electionQuote:
The 1968 United States presidential election was the 46th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 5, 1968. The Republican nominee, former vice president Richard Nixon, defeated both the Democratic nominee, incumbent vice president Hubert Humphrey, and the American Independent Party nominee, former Alabama governor George Wallace.
Incumbent president Lyndon B. Johnson had been the early front-runner for the Democratic Party's nomination, but he withdrew from the race after only narrowly winning the New Hampshire primary. Eugene McCarthy, Robert F. Kennedy and Humphrey emerged as the three major candidates in the Democratic primaries until Kennedy was assassinated. His death after midnight on June 6, 1968, continued a streak of high-profile assassinations in the 1960s. Humphrey edged out anti-Vietnam war candidate McCarthy to win the Democratic nomination, sparking numerous anti-war protests. Nixon entered the Republican primaries as the front-runner, defeating liberal New York governor Nelson Rockefeller, conservative governor of California Ronald Reagan, and other candidates to win his party's nomination. Alabama's Democratic former governor, George Wallace, ran on the American Independent Party ticket, campaigning in favor of racial segregation on the basis of "states' rights". The election year was tumultuous and chaotic. It was marked by the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. in early April, and the subsequent 54 days of riots across the nation, by the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy in early June, and by widespread opposition to the Vietnam War across university campuses. Vice President Hubert Humphrey won and secured the Democratic nomination, with Humphrey promising to continue Johnson's war on poverty and to support the civil rights movement.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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BTC already rebounded when Kamala got the endorsements. She is as a big of underdog as Biden to Trump
Who endorsed Kamala?
I just walked in the house and turned tv on.
I just walked in the house and turned tv on.
Everyone
Clinton's and Biden
I have Vanguard for IRA. Mostly cash in that account currently but the cash sweep only paying 3.7%. Anyone have experience with placing cash reserves in BOXX?
You should have the option to make your settlement fund the money market (VMFXX) which is at 5.2% or close to that
here we goo
Tellurian sells to Woodside for $1/share.
Thanks for the rec. Expense ratio of VMFXX about a third of what BOXX is.
NVDA might be completing a triangle upward retracement that started last week, of which, today could be the last leg up. Resistance for it is $122.50 range. Through there, and $124 is next resistance. Support is recent low and should it break down, $112 is my next support with $111 being the top of the "bottoming box" I outlined two weeks ago.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Fidelity sent me a notification about their "Fully Paid Lending Program" to loan out shares.
If you had a position that you didn't plan to touch for a long period of time and didn't want to babysit your account for awhile, what is the downside to this?
If you had a position that you didn't plan to touch for a long period of time and didn't want to babysit your account for awhile, what is the downside to this?
UNG is throwing off buy signals. Hourly has already confirmed. Daily is trying to turn up.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Quote:
09:50 AM EDT, 07/22/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) said Monday it is in discussions with financial institutions for a potential senior revolving credit facility.
The proceeds would be used to repay and retire its term loan facility and ABL agreement, Super Micro Computer said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The company expects to finalize the revolving credit facility in Q1 2025 but noted there is no assurance it will secure the facility on acceptable terms or at all.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Excellent posts about the historical perspective on stock markets.
Thank you for taking the time to put it together.
Thank you for taking the time to put it together.
SMCI - The case laid out in the linked post is playing out. Look for $740 range as next shortt-erm swing buy opportunity.
Stock Markets - Page 6525 | TexAgs
Stock Markets - Page 6525 | TexAgs
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
If VXX holds above $10.90 range and makes a new high above $11.75, we could be seeing a legitimate bullish volatility pattern. Remember, the split is this Wednesday. Probably don't want to be long going in to it as you will be diluted. Just keep an eye. Below $10.5 and probability shifts that this was a corrective upward pattern with a new low incoming over the next 1-2 months.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I'm going back to the well with the Darvas box on CAR, selling Aug 2 98 Puts for $3.05 and targeting to let them expire worthless but would buy back if there's a big spike this week
i think SMCI needs to lose ~770 to break the daily wedge. for now its still within it.
Personal opinion, I think O&G are in the last zone of gentlemen's entry levels for the next cycle up. I have a couple more buy orders on individual stocks along with USO. But I'm overall well invested in the space. It would take a significant breakdown at this point for me to change my outlook to bearish.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
losing 800 dropped it out of trend line up, at least on my chart. also 800 seems to be a key level, closed around there Thursday and Friday, then failed to push above it this morning.sts7049 said:
i think SMCI needs to lose ~770 to break the daily wedge. for now its still within it.
M4 Benelli said:Brewmaster said:
Ragoo has steered you the right direction. I would consider too the roads you plan to ride. You may want to go with a gravel bike. The big advantage being you can ride road or gravel.
For time's sake and getting a killer workout, I mostly race in Zwift, but I do some fondos. There's one in Montgomery and Real Ale in Blanco has one (with beer post ride!). The Zwift races though are a blast, I can beat up on others or get beat on, lol.
I also cut my carbs a year or so ago, I avoid processed stuff (and no rice, potatoes, bread) and upped the protein and fat (basically carnivore). I have no idea what my cholesterol is and don't care, but my weight is down a little, I'm leaner and my power (on the bike) is up. Countries with the highest cholesterol, also countries with longest life spans, interesting isn't it!
Do you ever feel energy depleted? Been on low carbs for a week while lifting heavy. Yesterday I felt sluggish AF. I had a little bit of carbs, and going to do so again in a bit. You can definitely see the fat loss QUICK on a low carb diet. Trying to cut 10lbs so my wife doesn't give me crap come October when we're in the hot tub on vacation lulz.
You may be low on electrolytes when you're energy is waning. I'd up the salts, and like Prog said take vitamins. Zinc, Mag, Vit D all great on low carb. you can also up the fat, I've literally had salted butter before for an energy source. A marbled steak with a couple tablespoons of butter melting over the top is even better!
this is what i got. not super precise, but still close i think.
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