before or after the 1:100 split?Heineken-Ashi said:Can't imagine what you will do when WWR hits $50.E said:
I will quit my job tomorrow if this hits $50 then
before or after the 1:100 split?Heineken-Ashi said:Can't imagine what you will do when WWR hits $50.E said:
I will quit my job tomorrow if this hits $50 then
Yes, I tend to agree. The FED keeps a 2% promise with lots of jabbering when its above there about how they are working to get it back. The market and public will take a little variance above if they feel confidence that the FED will get it back, even if they don't. Like I said, it's the sustained breaks upward that cause action from the public. This is why the FED had to move from "transitory" to the quickest rate hike cycle in our lifetimes in 2022. The data was strongly moving against them and the public started throwing a fit. Now things have quieted down despite not being back to target. This is because the public perceives that the FED is doing a good job and is "on track".I bleed maroon said:Good thoughts. I'd argue a couple points - unemployment is typically inverse of inflation rates. Also, if you look back 50 years, 90%+ of the time, we have experienced more than 2% inflation.Heineken-Ashi said:Their 2% target is merely set at the level that 100+ years of history has shown people are willing to be taxed at (inflation) without creating a fuss. Once it goes over that level, inflation starts to erode away enough from people that they actual feel like they aren't keeping up. And significantly higher for a long period causes revolts and the people along with the general economy force widespread governmental changes. Above 2% usually also comes with rising unemployment, one of the two things the FED is supposed to prevent. So when people start losing jobs, they immediately blame the institution tasked with preventing that from happening.I bleed maroon said:Yes - it will be interesting to see.Heineken-Ashi said:
CPI tomorrow. Can't imagine it being a non-factor, but it has been a non-factor many times before.
Keep your eye on treasury yields. The 2-year is moving down and has broken support. 10-year is moving down but hasn't yet matched the 2-year depth of drop. When those start really moving you will see the market, and the FED, react.
Sidebar: I think Powell has worked himself into a win-win scenario. He can't really be blamed if he keeps rates constant, as we have not reached the inflation target, and unemployment is low enough that it doesn't justify easing on those grounds. However, if he cuts rates before year-end, he can be thought of as forward-looking in terms of his protecting a potentially fragile economy.
As an objective observer, I'm amazed that the Fed has set such a stringent inflation target. I truly believe a range would have been much more appropriate, whether it was 1.5-2.5%, 2-3%, or 1-4%. An absolute target is by definition going to be too high or too low 99%+ of the time, and it's no way to set an overriding strategy, in my opinion.
Put simply, they can erode away the dollar as much as they want as long as it maintains at a 2% average clip. Beyond that, and the people start to fuss.
I would like to have a constant 2% inflation rate, but I'd be lying to myself if I said it is "the norm". And interestingly, the discussion actually gets very provocative when inflation is below the target - just think if this was truly half the time, on average!
WWR/GOLD.E said:before or after the 1:100 split?Heineken-Ashi said:Can't imagine what you will do when WWR hits $50.E said:
I will quit my job tomorrow if this hits $50 then
I'd go further than that - if you or i were in charge, we'd use some sort of backward moving average paired with a consensus forward-looking composite to more mechanically set interest rates. I'd say a 1.5-3.0% range would be adequate in most cases.Heineken-Ashi said:Yes, I tend to agree. The FED keeps a 2% promise with lots of jabbering when its above there about how they are working to get it back. The market and public will take a little variance above if they feel confidence that the FED will get it back, even if they don't. Like I said, it's the sustained breaks upward that cause action from the public. This is why the FED had to move from "transitory" to the quickest rate hike cycle in our lifetimes in 2022. The data was strongly moving against them and the public started throwing a fit. Now things have quieted down despite not being back to target. This is because the public perceives that the FED is doing a good job and is "on track".I bleed maroon said:Good thoughts. I'd argue a couple points - unemployment is typically inverse of inflation rates. Also, if you look back 50 years, 90%+ of the time, we have experienced more than 2% inflation.Heineken-Ashi said:Their 2% target is merely set at the level that 100+ years of history has shown people are willing to be taxed at (inflation) without creating a fuss. Once it goes over that level, inflation starts to erode away enough from people that they actual feel like they aren't keeping up. And significantly higher for a long period causes revolts and the people along with the general economy force widespread governmental changes. Above 2% usually also comes with rising unemployment, one of the two things the FED is supposed to prevent. So when people start losing jobs, they immediately blame the institution tasked with preventing that from happening.I bleed maroon said:Yes - it will be interesting to see.Heineken-Ashi said:
CPI tomorrow. Can't imagine it being a non-factor, but it has been a non-factor many times before.
Keep your eye on treasury yields. The 2-year is moving down and has broken support. 10-year is moving down but hasn't yet matched the 2-year depth of drop. When those start really moving you will see the market, and the FED, react.
Sidebar: I think Powell has worked himself into a win-win scenario. He can't really be blamed if he keeps rates constant, as we have not reached the inflation target, and unemployment is low enough that it doesn't justify easing on those grounds. However, if he cuts rates before year-end, he can be thought of as forward-looking in terms of his protecting a potentially fragile economy.
As an objective observer, I'm amazed that the Fed has set such a stringent inflation target. I truly believe a range would have been much more appropriate, whether it was 1.5-2.5%, 2-3%, or 1-4%. An absolute target is by definition going to be too high or too low 99%+ of the time, and it's no way to set an overriding strategy, in my opinion.
Put simply, they can erode away the dollar as much as they want as long as it maintains at a 2% average clip. Beyond that, and the people start to fuss.
I would like to have a constant 2% inflation rate, but I'd be lying to myself if I said it is "the norm". And interestingly, the discussion actually gets very provocative when inflation is below the target - just think if this was truly half the time, on average!
I can admit that, on its face. But deeper analysis shows he hasn't done anything. They never do. The moves he's made since finally realizing he was wrong and starting to raise rates have been minimal, with the most action coming in the formation of the BTFP, something that would have never been a possibility even in 2020. It was a creative, out of left field, last resort (because there were literally no other options) move to funnel liquidity to a banking sector in crisis. Without it, the meltdown would have started in March of 2023. What the FED has done since 2008 has been nothing more than applying putty on leaks in a submarine. Every time a new leak springs up, they just plug it and keep diving deeper. Nothing is being done to steer the ship to safety. Repairs aren't even in consideration. And we are at a point where they will no longer have the benefit of year over year oil and commodity changes being negative. Those YOY numbers are going to be flat to positive moving forward. Inflation will be deemed "sticky" and "stubborn" with a significant risk of spikes causing inflation to ramp up again. At which point, it will be evident that he did absolutely nothing and certainly not as much as he should have done when he had the chance.I bleed maroon said:I'd go further than that - if you or i were in charge, we'd use some sort of backward moving average paired with a consensus forward-looking composite to more mechanically set interest rates. I'd say a 1.5-3.0% range would be adequate in most cases.Heineken-Ashi said:Yes, I tend to agree. The FED keeps a 2% promise with lots of jabbering when its above there about how they are working to get it back. The market and public will take a little variance above if they feel confidence that the FED will get it back, even if they don't. Like I said, it's the sustained breaks upward that cause action from the public. This is why the FED had to move from "transitory" to the quickest rate hike cycle in our lifetimes in 2022. The data was strongly moving against them and the public started throwing a fit. Now things have quieted down despite not being back to target. This is because the public perceives that the FED is doing a good job and is "on track".I bleed maroon said:Good thoughts. I'd argue a couple points - unemployment is typically inverse of inflation rates. Also, if you look back 50 years, 90%+ of the time, we have experienced more than 2% inflation.Heineken-Ashi said:Their 2% target is merely set at the level that 100+ years of history has shown people are willing to be taxed at (inflation) without creating a fuss. Once it goes over that level, inflation starts to erode away enough from people that they actual feel like they aren't keeping up. And significantly higher for a long period causes revolts and the people along with the general economy force widespread governmental changes. Above 2% usually also comes with rising unemployment, one of the two things the FED is supposed to prevent. So when people start losing jobs, they immediately blame the institution tasked with preventing that from happening.I bleed maroon said:Yes - it will be interesting to see.Heineken-Ashi said:
CPI tomorrow. Can't imagine it being a non-factor, but it has been a non-factor many times before.
Keep your eye on treasury yields. The 2-year is moving down and has broken support. 10-year is moving down but hasn't yet matched the 2-year depth of drop. When those start really moving you will see the market, and the FED, react.
Sidebar: I think Powell has worked himself into a win-win scenario. He can't really be blamed if he keeps rates constant, as we have not reached the inflation target, and unemployment is low enough that it doesn't justify easing on those grounds. However, if he cuts rates before year-end, he can be thought of as forward-looking in terms of his protecting a potentially fragile economy.
As an objective observer, I'm amazed that the Fed has set such a stringent inflation target. I truly believe a range would have been much more appropriate, whether it was 1.5-2.5%, 2-3%, or 1-4%. An absolute target is by definition going to be too high or too low 99%+ of the time, and it's no way to set an overriding strategy, in my opinion.
Put simply, they can erode away the dollar as much as they want as long as it maintains at a 2% average clip. Beyond that, and the people start to fuss.
I would like to have a constant 2% inflation rate, but I'd be lying to myself if I said it is "the norm". And interestingly, the discussion actually gets very provocative when inflation is below the target - just think if this was truly half the time, on average!
You must admit, Powell has amazingly recovered from being a laughingstock for his "transitory inflation" claim several years ago to today, where he's respected or tolerated by most. I wish (as you do too, I imagine) that he'd put more emphasis on our government's current fiscal irresponsibility as a root cause of economic risk, as monetary policy can only go so far.
I'm not a monetary policy guy. But we live in a monetary policy world and I have to make decisions in my personal and professional life that monetary policy can affect.I bleed maroon said:
I guess we just have a difference of perspective. I never really figured you as a monetary policy driven guy, but maybe you are. I see whatever Powell does as much less important to our future than fixing our fiscal irresponsibility (Trump/Biden/Bush/Obama, yep, all of them). Decisive action on fiscal restraint can make monetary policy much less important, but some see the Fed as the be-all/end-all, which it was never intended to be. It happens to be more politically palatable (by all parties) than the much less popular belt-tightening that's needed.
I change my mind...5,700 TOMORROW!!!!EnronAg said:
be careful shorting this donkey market...5,700 coming in about 5 trading days...
Heineken-Ashi said:Can't imagine what you will do when WWR hits $50.E said:
I will quit my job tomorrow if this hits $50 then
You when it happensTalon2DSO said:Heineken-Ashi said:Can't imagine what you will do when WWR hits $50.E said:
I will quit my job tomorrow if this hits $50 then
Did you say.....WHEN?
TheVarian said:
What's the long term goal for them you think? I want to put some cash in some stock like this and hold for the long term.
Heineken-Ashi said:You when it happensTalon2DSO said:Heineken-Ashi said:Can't imagine what you will do when WWR hits $50.E said:
I will quit my job tomorrow if this hits $50 then
Did you say.....WHEN?
El_duderino said:
That's not a concern anymore. They got pills for that if needed
Heineken-Ashi said:I'm not a monetary policy guy. But we live in a monetary policy world and I have to make decisions in my personal and professional life that monetary policy can affect.I bleed maroon said:
I guess we just have a difference of perspective. I never really figured you as a monetary policy driven guy, but maybe you are. I see whatever Powell does as much less important to our future than fixing our fiscal irresponsibility (Trump/Biden/Bush/Obama, yep, all of them). Decisive action on fiscal restraint can make monetary policy much less important, but some see the Fed as the be-all/end-all, which it was never intended to be. It happens to be more politically palatable (by all parties) than the much less popular belt-tightening that's needed.
Regarding Powell in the FED, there's nothing they can do except take measure to kick the can further. Every time we kick the can, we steal more productivity from the future economy to merely stabilize the current economy. We steal wealth from our own futures and our kids futures to maintain the status quo of the present. Nobody wants a recession or depression. People will lose jobs, homes, wealth, and some will die. But this is the reality of what you get when you start down the path of devaluing the currency to smooth out natural economic cycles. You essentially create a "buy the dip" moment at the present while kick down the road what would have been a natural cycle down, but will now be longer and deeper when it comes. And we've done this continually since 2008. Before that, the FED could take a little action here or there with small movements in rates and adding or subtracting assets on their balance sheer. The economic backdrop was in a long term period of growth and debt was manageable. In 2008, they "saved" the economy by changing the rules of the game. Instead of adding assets to their balance sheet from the treasury sale of new securities to expand the money supply, they borrowed the money from the banks and then loaned it back to the banks 100fold. This was when the economy and middle class went into a hole that it couldn't recover from. Because that money would never be paid back. Then they did it again in 2020 at a 4x factor. The FED from the 1970's and 1980's that used strict interest rate management to defeat inflation and get the country back on track turned into a FED that took money from the people, leveraged it, AND used interest rate management to merely prop up a structure that needed to be reset. There are no tools left. The balance sheet is mostly full. If they buy treasuries and add them to the balance sheet, the interest on the debt will explode, and it's already 1.1T. If they stimulate in any way its going to cause runaway hyperinflation. And if they use strict interest rate management to put a high top over inflation, they will cause the massive recession they are being celebrated as avoiding. There are no tools. They are sitting ducks just waiting, all in the hopes they aren't the ones blamed.
Heineken-Ashi said:I'm not a monetary policy guy. But we live in a monetary policy world and I have to make decisions in my personal and professional life that monetary policy can affect.I bleed maroon said:
I guess we just have a difference of perspective. I never really figured you as a monetary policy driven guy, but maybe you are. I see whatever Powell does as much less important to our future than fixing our fiscal irresponsibility (Trump/Biden/Bush/Obama, yep, all of them). Decisive action on fiscal restraint can make monetary policy much less important, but some see the Fed as the be-all/end-all, which it was never intended to be. It happens to be more politically palatable (by all parties) than the much less popular belt-tightening that's needed.
Regarding Powell in the FED, there's nothing they can do except take measure to kick the can further. Every time we kick the can, we steal more productivity from the future economy to merely stabilize the current economy. We steal wealth from our own futures and our kids futures to maintain the status quo of the present. Nobody wants a recession or depression. People will lose jobs, homes, wealth, and some will die. But this is the reality of what you get when you start down the path of devaluing the currency to smooth out natural economic cycles. You essentially create a "buy the dip" moment at the present while kick down the road what would have been a natural cycle down, but will now be longer and deeper when it comes. And we've done this continually since 2008. Before that, the FED could take a little action here or there with small movements in rates and adding or subtracting assets on their balance sheer. The economic backdrop was in a long term period of growth and debt was manageable. In 2008, they "saved" the economy by changing the rules of the game. Instead of adding assets to their balance sheet from the treasury sale of new securities to expand the money supply, they borrowed the money from the banks and then loaned it back to the banks 100fold. This was when the economy and middle class went into a hole that it couldn't recover from. Because that money would never be paid back. Then they did it again in 2020 at a 4x factor. The FED from the 1970's and 1980's that used strict interest rate management to defeat inflation and get the country back on track turned into a FED that took money from the people, leveraged it, AND used interest rate management to merely prop up a structure that needed to be reset. There are no tools left. The balance sheet is mostly full. If they buy treasuries and add them to the balance sheet, the interest on the debt will explode, and it's already 1.1T. If they stimulate in any way its going to cause runaway hyperinflation. And if they use strict interest rate management to put a high top over inflation, they will cause the massive recession they are being celebrated as avoiding. There are no tools. They are sitting ducks just waiting, all in the hopes they aren't the ones blamed.
FishrCoAg said:Heineken-Ashi said:I'm not a monetary policy guy. But we live in a monetary policy world and I have to make decisions in my personal and professional life that monetary policy can affect.I bleed maroon said:
I guess we just have a difference of perspective. I never really figured you as a monetary policy driven guy, but maybe you are. I see whatever Powell does as much less important to our future than fixing our fiscal irresponsibility (Trump/Biden/Bush/Obama, yep, all of them). Decisive action on fiscal restraint can make monetary policy much less important, but some see the Fed as the be-all/end-all, which it was never intended to be. It happens to be more politically palatable (by all parties) than the much less popular belt-tightening that's needed.
Regarding Powell in the FED, there's nothing they can do except take measure to kick the can further. Every time we kick the can, we steal more productivity from the future economy to merely stabilize the current economy. We steal wealth from our own futures and our kids futures to maintain the status quo of the present. Nobody wants a recession or depression. People will lose jobs, homes, wealth, and some will die. But this is the reality of what you get when you start down the path of devaluing the currency to smooth out natural economic cycles. You essentially create a "buy the dip" moment at the present while kick down the road what would have been a natural cycle down, but will now be longer and deeper when it comes. And we've done this continually since 2008. Before that, the FED could take a little action here or there with small movements in rates and adding or subtracting assets on their balance sheer. The economic backdrop was in a long term period of growth and debt was manageable. In 2008, they "saved" the economy by changing the rules of the game. Instead of adding assets to their balance sheet from the treasury sale of new securities to expand the money supply, they borrowed the money from the banks and then loaned it back to the banks 100fold. This was when the economy and middle class went into a hole that it couldn't recover from. Because that money would never be paid back. Then they did it again in 2020 at a 4x factor. The FED from the 1970's and 1980's that used strict interest rate management to defeat inflation and get the country back on track turned into a FED that took money from the people, leveraged it, AND used interest rate management to merely prop up a structure that needed to be reset. There are no tools left. The balance sheet is mostly full. If they buy treasuries and add them to the balance sheet, the interest on the debt will explode, and it's already 1.1T. If they stimulate in any way its going to cause runaway hyperinflation. And if they use strict interest rate management to put a high top over inflation, they will cause the massive recession they are being celebrated as avoiding. There are no tools. They are sitting ducks just waiting, all in the hopes they aren't the ones blamed.
I am not economically smart or educated enough to know how this plays out, and your scenario certainly sounds plausible. My big question is how long can they keep the balls in the air? Months, years, decades?
.webpQuote:
The VIX Index measures a constant 30-day weighting by using multiple SPX options expiration cycles. Since there isn't an exact 30-day expiration cycle on every single trading day, Cboe uses the following methodology to calculate a constant 30-day implied volatility using SPX options:
"Only SPX options with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to the Friday SPX expiration are used to calculate the VIX Index. These SPX options are then weighted to yield a constant, 30-day measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index." Cboe
As mentioned earlier, VXX tracks the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index, which tracks the first and second month VIX futures contracts:
The S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index utilizes prices of the next two near-term VIX futures contracts to replicate a position that rolls the nearest month VIX futures to the next month on a daily basis in equal fractional amounts. This results in a constant one-month rolling long position in first and second month VIX futures contracts. (source)
VXX's goal is to track the daily percentage change of a 30-day VIX futures contract. Since there isn't a VIX futures contract with 30 days to settlement on each trading day, they use the first-month and second-month VIX futures to calculate a 30-day VIX futures contract from the weightings and prices of the futures that are actually trading.
And there's $40.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Bam! TNA - $38 limit sell executed in premarket.
Got more set at 39 and 40.
Quote:
Inflation tame in June
Government's key measure in line with expectations, despite higher food prices.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Prices paid by consumers rose in June, but when food and energy prices were stripped out the government's key inflation measure was in line with Wall Street expectations