Do we sell this off hard at close?
Stock Markets
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Last: 18 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Not today, traders want DJIA 40K to print.
Not a bad idea to go net free on SLV Sep calls.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
What's your target on SLV? It's approaching its high of 2021. Are you thinking highs of 2013/Heineken-Ashi said:
Not a bad idea to go net free on SLV Sep calls.
See previous posts.Ccutamu said:What's your target on SLV? It's approaching its high of 2021. Are you thinking highs of 2013/Heineken-Ashi said:
Not a bad idea to go net free on SLV Sep calls.
$30-$40 later this year
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Heineken-Ashi said:See previous posts.Ccutamu said:What's your target on SLV? It's approaching its high of 2021. Are you thinking highs of 2013/Heineken-Ashi said:
Not a bad idea to go net free on SLV Sep calls.
$30-$40 later this year
I searched and couldn't find it so I hit you up. Appreciate all you do HA!Ccutamu said:Heineken-Ashi said:See previous posts.Ccutamu said:What's your target on SLV? It's approaching its high of 2021. Are you thinking highs of 2013/Heineken-Ashi said:
Not a bad idea to go net free on SLV Sep calls.
$30-$40 later this year
What's the general consensus on going net free on options? Double price and sell half?
I was able to get lucky with the Sep $25 SLV calls and went net free with only a quarter of my contracts when they spiked to 3.75 a few weeks ago
I was a little more conservative today and sold 7/20 contracts to go net free on the Sep $28 SLV calls.
I was able to get lucky with the Sep $25 SLV calls and went net free with only a quarter of my contracts when they spiked to 3.75 a few weeks ago
I was a little more conservative today and sold 7/20 contracts to go net free on the Sep $28 SLV calls.
Going long GME $20 puts expiring Friday. Effectively shorting the stock with downside limited to premiums paid. This week's twitter inspired rally doesn't seem to have the same oomph as the 2021 craziness. Should make for a fun close to the week.
SAag1113 said:
Do we sell this off hard at close?
Does not seem like it.
Depends on the person. These are nowhere near target, and metals can stay irrationally bullish once they get going, so if you sell, you want to bring enough cash back in so that your heart feels healthy and not stressed while not limiting your upside. But ultimately, ask yourself what amount you are willing to take off the table today assuming it never really goes materially lower in price over the next 3 months.fauxstradamus said:
What's the general consensus on going net free on options? Double price and sell half?
I was able to get lucky with the Sep $25 SLV calls and went net free with only a quarter of my contracts when they spiked to 3.75 a few weeks ago
I was a little more conservative today and sold 7/20 contracts to go net free on the Sep $28 SLV calls.
In a perfect world, we will get a chance to reload or possibly grab another expiration/strike for a new position.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
funny, I was just coming here to post about SLV since it had a big move up today.
Thanks again H-A for bringing this one to the board
Thanks again H-A for bringing this one to the board
Endured a large drop in SNOW and am finally up $8.71.
not sure if seen this before
“But I don’t want to invest when the markets at all-time highs!”
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) May 15, 2024
Oh yes, yes you do! $SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA $NYA pic.twitter.com/fEMLQthjYH
Buffett has been acquiring Chubb shares over the past 3 quarters. Interesting. One of the few carriers still underwriting million plus homes
Bonfire.1996 said:
Buffett has been acquiring Chubb shares over the past 3 quarters. Interesting. One of the few carriers still underwriting million plus homes
I'm not in it but somebody always knows. Look at TTD volume and price action at 2:15 today.agdaddy04 said:
What are y'all's thoughts on TTD going into earnings tonight?
I'm a little surprised the SEC hasn't slapped buffets hand on this. He owns two reinsurance companies(insurance for insurance carriers, Chubb included), Geico, MedPro, MLMIC, Allegheny, a few others.
since you're communicating with a week in the past can you tell me to YOLO calls on AMC/GME/FFIE?ProgN said:I'm not in it but somebody always knows. Look at TTD volume and price action at 2:15 today.agdaddy04 said:
What are y'all's thoughts on TTD going into earnings tonight?
ProgN said:I'm not in it but somebody always knows. Look at TTD volume and price action at 2:15 today.agdaddy04 said:
What are y'all's thoughts on TTD going into earnings tonight?
This still doesn't make me bullish NFXL or advertisers. Ad-tier is growing because inflationary prices are forcing people to cut back, so they are moving to ad tier. When there's nothing left to cut back, they will start to flat out cut. Why do you think NFLX said they will stop reporting subscriber growth? Because they've seen the movement from high subs to low subs and they know what comes next.Quote:
NFLX Power House-->Netflix (NFLX) said it will launch an in-house advertising technology platform, by the end of 2025, adding that this "will give advertisers new ways to buy, new insights to leverage, and new ways to measure impact." This summer, Netflix will also expand its buying capabilities to include The Trade Desk (TTD), Google's (GOOGL) Display & Video 360, and Magnite (MGNI) who will join Microsoft (MSFT) as the main programmatic partners for advertisers, the company added.
Netflix says ad tier now has 40M global monthly active users Netflix said that its ad-supported tier now has 40M global monthly active users, up from 5M a year prior. Over 40% of all signups in the ads countries now come from the ads plan, the company said. Additionally, Netflix said it will launch an in-house advertising technology platform, by the end of 2025. This will give advertisers new ways to buy, new insights to leverage, and new ways to measure impact. This summer, Netflix will also expand its buying capabilities to include The Trade Desk, Google's Display & Video 360, and Magnite who will join Microsoft as the main programmatic partners for advertisers. The company said it currently has 270M total subscribers
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
I'm not sure.
A lot of folks that only have one streamer use Netflix. I doubt many will cut back to nothing.
A lot of folks that only have one streamer use Netflix. I doubt many will cut back to nothing.
Heineken-Ashi said:ProgN said:I'm not in it but somebody always knows. Look at TTD volume and price action at 2:15 today.agdaddy04 said:
What are y'all's thoughts on TTD going into earnings tonight?This still doesn't make me bullish NFXL or advertisers. Ad-tier is growing because inflationary prices are forcing people to cut back, so they are moving to ad tier. When there's nothing left to cut back, they will start to flat out cut. Why do you think NFLX said they will stop reporting subscriber growth? Because they've seen the movement from high subs to low subs and they know what comes next.Quote:
NFLX Power House-->Netflix (NFLX) said it will launch an in-house advertising technology platform, by the end of 2025, adding that this "will give advertisers new ways to buy, new insights to leverage, and new ways to measure impact." This summer, Netflix will also expand its buying capabilities to include The Trade Desk (TTD), Google's (GOOGL) Display & Video 360, and Magnite (MGNI) who will join Microsoft (MSFT) as the main programmatic partners for advertisers, the company added.
Netflix says ad tier now has 40M global monthly active users Netflix said that its ad-supported tier now has 40M global monthly active users, up from 5M a year prior. Over 40% of all signups in the ads countries now come from the ads plan, the company said. Additionally, Netflix said it will launch an in-house advertising technology platform, by the end of 2025. This will give advertisers new ways to buy, new insights to leverage, and new ways to measure impact. This summer, Netflix will also expand its buying capabilities to include The Trade Desk, Google's Display & Video 360, and Magnite who will join Microsoft as the main programmatic partners for advertisers. The company said it currently has 270M total subscribers
NFXL was not the catalyst for TTD. The 40m ad tier subscriptions growth is.
big props amigo on SLV. I've just been selling the rips, going out a month, reloading out a month further each pull back.
I didn't sell today, it is at ATH, might push a little more before running out of gas. but I'm probably out tomorrow.
I didn't sell today, it is at ATH, might push a little more before running out of gas. but I'm probably out tomorrow.
Consumer debt is at extreme levels. COVID stimulus has been burned through. Savings are being drained. When nothing else is left, people will absolutely cut anything discretionary. You might not think its coming, but it is.Diggity said:
I'm not sure.
A lot of folks that only have one streamer use Netflix. I doubt many will cut back to nothing.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
I don't disagree with you, but I think the $10/month NFLX sub will be well down the list for most consumers in comparison to restaurants, concerts, flights, hotels, etc. that are much larger numbers...which will all be punished soon...pain on Main Street is near...
Probably true. Time will tell.EnronAg said:
I don't disagree with you, but I think the $10/month NFLX sub will be well down the list for most consumers in comparison to restaurants, concerts, flights, hotels, etc. that are much larger numbers...which will all be punished soon...pain on Main Street is near...
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
They also will be streaming some NFL games this year.Heineken-Ashi said:Probably true. Time will tell.EnronAg said:
I don't disagree with you, but I think the $10/month NFLX sub will be well down the list for most consumers in comparison to restaurants, concerts, flights, hotels, etc. that are much larger numbers...which will all be punished soon...pain on Main Street is near...
Did you drop your real estate advice yet? I think you were specifically talking about what to own (and not own) in a recession.Heineken-Ashi said:Consumer debt is at extreme levels. COVID stimulus has been burned through. Savings are being drained. When nothing else is left, people will absolutely cut anything discretionary. You might not think its coming, but it is.Diggity said:
I'm not sure.
A lot of folks that only have one streamer use Netflix. I doubt many will cut back to nothing.
I know real estate is due for a pullback, but I can't help but think it also rockets even more (if inflation goes sky high, along with metals).
agreed. People will have in home movie nights and neighborhood pool staycations if pennies are being pinched.EnronAg said:
I don't disagree with you, but I think the $10/month NFLX sub will be well down the list for most consumers in comparison to restaurants, concerts, flights, hotels, etc. that are much larger numbers...which will all be punished soon...pain on Main Street is near...
Don't know what you're referring to. That was on this thread?
The most common fallacy I hear - When the Fed drops rates, it will be bullish for equities!
Let's check back to the last couple of times the 10-year and Fed Funds (who follows the 10-year) were around these levels..
Light blue is 10-year. Dark blue is FEDFUNDS. Yellow is SPX in log mode.
Notice how the FED always follows and does what the 10-year tells it to, and in the big drops, it goes WAY farther down, usually exasperating the problem further. But make no mistake, after a period of FED raising, the 10-year drop will coincide with the beginning of the selloff, with the FED drop being whats sends markets over the edge.
In previous times, the FED had a pretty clean balance sheet with plenty of capacity to ease, buy treasuries at low rates, and create liquidity in the banking system. Today, the FED is not in that position. The balance sheet is full despite the mirage of tightening its been doing. And unlike 2000 and 2008, inflation isn't low. This FED drop will kick off a period of very high inflation similar to the 70's and 80's but on a grander scale. And holding all of those treasuries on the balance sheet when the 10-year bottoms and goes back up, forcing them to raise to even higher rates.. well.. you think interest on the debt is bad today.. just wait.
So next time some jackwad parrots around that the FED dropping will be bullish, you can laugh at them. Maybe in relatively normal times where they drop from 3 to 2.75 that is the case. But not when they start a sizeable dropping campaign in an attempt to save a banking sector and economy from catastrophe.
Let's check back to the last couple of times the 10-year and Fed Funds (who follows the 10-year) were around these levels..
Light blue is 10-year. Dark blue is FEDFUNDS. Yellow is SPX in log mode.
Notice how the FED always follows and does what the 10-year tells it to, and in the big drops, it goes WAY farther down, usually exasperating the problem further. But make no mistake, after a period of FED raising, the 10-year drop will coincide with the beginning of the selloff, with the FED drop being whats sends markets over the edge.
In previous times, the FED had a pretty clean balance sheet with plenty of capacity to ease, buy treasuries at low rates, and create liquidity in the banking system. Today, the FED is not in that position. The balance sheet is full despite the mirage of tightening its been doing. And unlike 2000 and 2008, inflation isn't low. This FED drop will kick off a period of very high inflation similar to the 70's and 80's but on a grander scale. And holding all of those treasuries on the balance sheet when the 10-year bottoms and goes back up, forcing them to raise to even higher rates.. well.. you think interest on the debt is bad today.. just wait.
So next time some jackwad parrots around that the FED dropping will be bullish, you can laugh at them. Maybe in relatively normal times where they drop from 3 to 2.75 that is the case. But not when they start a sizeable dropping campaign in an attempt to save a banking sector and economy from catastrophe.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
What the market is doing now is due to future lower rates. They'll be "priced in" once they actually do, so a drop could make sense.
Brian Earl Spilner said:
What the market is doing now is due to future lower rates. They'll be "priced in" once they actually do, so a drop could make sense.
Ah yes, the omniscient market theory. The same market who expected 6 rate cuts this year. Clearly they are all knowing. And in 2020, the market clearly knew the FED was going to drop rates to zero, right?
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
I was agreeing with you.
Brian Earl Spilner said:
I was agreeing with you.
I know, but you're prescribing a sense of fortune telling to the market that doesn't exist. It's what the talking heads say and part of the common fallacy, so i get it.
The market since 2008 is almost entirely a product of forced liquidity injections. You can see periods of innovation when rates were relatively steady and the market climbed naturally. But they are surrounded by periods of massive stimulus. And the capacity for stimulus is close to an end. Which is why this drop won't likely be recovered from in the way the last two were.
The FED follows the bond market. Always has always will. The market is its own creature, but being largely US based, both market rates and FED rates affect operations of business, so both affect the market. But the FED pushes the stimulus which is what has really driven the exponential rise of the market over the last decade plus. It had nothing to do with the market knowing what the FED was going to do, but much more with the market being a byproduct. With no FED and purely free market rates in a healthy economy, the market would likely consistently rise with small drawbacks here and there. But we haven't had that market in decades.
Edit: I can see why my last reply came off harsh. Apologies. I give a hard eye roll anytime someone says the market has "priced in" anything. If the market knew what was going to happen, the selloff would have already begun as everyone would be taking as much profit as possible in preparation for what's coming. And if the market has priced in some good future event, then why would equities rip with rate cuts? That would be the definition of not priced in.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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