Heineken-Ashi said:

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While fundamentals are an absolute must, especially for individual stocks, they by no means tell a clear picture of anything. At best, the provide an underlying justification for a move in sentiment. But fundamentals can't explain a stock selling off on good earnings, good news sending markets down, or why stubborn inflation and higher for longer rates have markets moving up right now while that very thought is what sent them down in 2022.

More than anything else, the stock market is moved by sentiment. And technical analysis provides many tools which very accurately gauge sentiment. Is it perfect? Absolutely not. But by blending the technical with the fundamental and understanding where an instrument or index might be on the sentiment wave, you have a massive leg up against the fundamental follower who can't seem to understand why bad things happen to good stocks and good things happen to bad stocks.

Before you argue this, I challenge you to read the socioeconomic theory of finance by Robert Prechter. It goes piece by piece over all of the common misconceptions of what's moves markers and debunks them. The market is not linear, and if you are attempting to view it through a linear lens, you are will continue to scratch your head every single day.

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In a way, we're saying the same thing. Taking in a wide variety of indicators usually improves results. You may think that those who use fundamentals are simple-minded morons, and I may think that pure technicals (yes, including the Elliot Wave) is unmitigated voodoo, but we can integrate elements together to produce a better outcome.

Boy Named Sue said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Here's the RSI calcs for TOS. Make sure you have up signals and down signals turned on.

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Heiny- my TV doesn't give me the same input options. I don't seem to have the "Plots" dropdown available, so I'm not seeing how I can add up/down signals or even set levels for overbought and oversold. Are you setting that up somewhere besides the Settings tab for RSI? Or maybe I'm just on a lower level subscription.

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That's for TOS. Tradingview doesn't have signal arrows and I never learned to code.

Well, duh, you said exactly that in the damn post. My bad

TNA

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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$MSTR #callflowalert 🚨
Unusual Flow on Weeklies on $MSTR more than million$ worth today on 1300+ Strikes pic.twitter.com/B0bKUlb5Y5

— Ripster📈📉 (@ripster47) May 13, 2024

Bought a couple mara weeklies, seems to have put in a nice base. Btc getting primed?

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Those MSTR calls are in the money now for whoever did that.

bhanacik said:

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I sold several weekly puts on both AMC and GME way outside the money. The IV is just too much to pass up.

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just curious if you are still holding these...if so, please cut bait at any blip back up...we all know where these go...don't be a massive bag holder on these...

EnronAg said:

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bhanacik said:

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I sold several weekly puts on both AMC and GME way outside the money. The IV is just too much to pass up.

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just curious if you are still holding these...if so, please cut bait at any blip back up...we all know where these go...don't be a massive bag holder on these...

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I held two puts on AMC and one on GME overnight. Set limit orders to get out of them this morning before opening for breakeven, but they just missed executing. Went ahead and sold them now for a total loss of about $400

Live and learn

I know you love the leveraged ETF's...think about paper trading what I call a synthetic strangle...requires margin though, so buyer beware,,,but I've nickel and dimed my way to some decent returns doing it...basically, I sell 1 OTM call about 2 weeks out on KOLD and 3 OTM calls on BOIL (both have about the same notional value)...no puts involved as leveraged decay is not your friend on the put side...but is ALWAYS your friend on the call side...1 side of the trade will always clear in the money...many times both will if there is no volatility for that period...you're essentially selling vol on nat gas...but in the instance that one side of your trade runs, I merely roll it out another 2-4 weeks and up a few strikes if I can collect more premium...let retracement and decay take effect...sell the other side of that synthetic strangle again...I have a large enough account to where the margin is not scary unless gas would just go parabolic one way...but again, my plan would be to roll out and up and just wait...it's margin and time value of money does not impact my return on investment...paper trade this for a few weeks to get comfortable with swings and what you would do in a high volatility environment...but it's a cash cow when nat gas trades in a range...the premiums are pretty juicy, but I always trade deep OTM to give myself a lot of downside protection in both directions...

Honestly I have zero interest in trading options or margin trading. Leveraged ETFs are plenty risky for me.

Right now I'm in the phase of reducing my position in them considerably, and being way more conservative with stops and profits.

Early on I was constantly holding out for huge wins, and I missed out on many buy/sell opportunities.

I made a conscious effort to change that around May of last year, when I sold out of BOIL. The vast majority of my profits have come after that, with an average profit of +8% per trade. Much easier to do +8% three times than 20% once.

kudos...keep killin' it on the right side of your chart

I bleed maroon said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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While fundamentals are an absolute must, especially for individual stocks, they by no means tell a clear picture of anything. At best, the provide an underlying justification for a move in sentiment. But fundamentals can't explain a stock selling off on good earnings, good news sending markets down, or why stubborn inflation and higher for longer rates have markets moving up right now while that very thought is what sent them down in 2022.

More than anything else, the stock market is moved by sentiment. And technical analysis provides many tools which very accurately gauge sentiment. Is it perfect? Absolutely not. But by blending the technical with the fundamental and understanding where an instrument or index might be on the sentiment wave, you have a massive leg up against the fundamental follower who can't seem to understand why bad things happen to good stocks and good things happen to bad stocks.

Before you argue this, I challenge you to read the socioeconomic theory of finance by Robert Prechter. It goes piece by piece over all of the common misconceptions of what's moves markers and debunks them. The market is not linear, and if you are attempting to view it through a linear lens, you are will continue to scratch your head every single day.

---

In a way, we're saying the same thing. Taking in a wide variety of indicators usually improves results. You may think that those who use fundamentals are simple-minded morons, and I may think that pure technicals (yes, including the Elliot Wave) is unmitigated voodoo, but we can integrate elements together to produce a better outcome.

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Carter Braxton Worth is always showing technical charts on CNBC tracking certain stocks which show TO THE PENNY a bounce or drop over the course of years.

how is this possible?

is it the way he finds to place a line?

or that something in the system of trading bounces a stock once it hits its previous all time low?

Appreciate it.

flashplayer said:

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SMCI took off today. Up around 10%

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Finally made it back into the positive today. I'm up .78%

you have an updated version of his chart?? b/c it appears he was wrong on his red arrow and we are now at the top trend line currently...

IWM needs to hold $203.80 range to stay impulsive upward toward a $214 target. Line in the sand is $201.50. Below that, and not only is a top in back at the end of March, but a top is in likely leading to a very impulsive downward move to new lows.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Sounds like I'll be moving it to Schwab then. Thanks.

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Also Rollovers tend to give you more options and more control. Most 401Ks are limited in their investment options. Sorry about the work changes :-(
Both my software teams got fired (4 months ago), and jobs moved to India :-(

Thoughts on U at ~20? For a short term trade?

Thanks. We had mass layoffs last month, so at this point I'm just glad I wasn't in that group. And especially with how things are going in IT nationwide with layoffs.

I'm in schuab and have no issues

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Thanks. We had mass layoffs last month, so at this point I'm just glad I wasn't in that group. And especially with how things are going in IT nationwide with layoffs.

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It sucks when people get axed, but I'm glad you weren't part of that group. I also recommend rolling your 401 over into a self-directed IRA.

sadly never got directly into NVDA in part due to having too many individual positions, barely missed a 760 buy in last month

but just calculated out in weight of my indexes/etfs have exposure to ~$60K total NVDA

have quietly pumped mid five figures into SMH past month in the low 200s

for the technical guys on the board, what do you guys see happening first?? SPX 5,400 or back below 5,200?? curious what ya'll are seeing from your technical indicators.

so those that got the 3% IRA transfer bonus to Robinhood have Gold membership which is supposed to get you unlimited 1% bonus on all deposits, though unclear when that actually starts?

Think it's a 2 year hold period but seems worth it to funnel taxable investing funds there for the match, just trying to figure out if it's active yet customer service is beyond worthless

EnronAg said:

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for the technical guys on the board, what do you guys see happening first?? SPX 5,400 or back below 5,200?? curious what ya'll are seeing from your technical indicators.

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Gun to my head - 5,200. Because the way we formed the April low was not typical of corrections which usually happen in 3-wave segments. And the action off of that low was very overlapping before ripping up which is VERY typical of the second wave of a correction. And corrections can get higher highs before ultimately dropping (usually happens when the preceding high came up short of what would have been the target - in this case - 5350). Most recent in memory was Feb 2023. Before that, Feb 2020 (which was an insane extension for the second wave of a correction). On an even grander scale, go look at October 2007 which took out the July 07 double top that lined up with the 2000 top, and also took out that 2000 top.

Is AMD breaking out of it's funk for at least a little mini run - what do y'all think?

Has anyone opened an autopilot account? Worth setting it up to invest alongside Nancy pelosi?

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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A tale of two cities...


My entire history with leveraged stocks. Clearly took a massive L with BOIL/UNG and still paying the price.

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I am impressed that you posted numbers.


I lost 30% on TQQQ during the Covid years and decided that it wasn't for me. I have stayed away from leveraged etfs since then. I am too stubborn and wouldn't exit when I needed to.

Glad that someone made some money on it.