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24,627,870 Views | 233268 Replies | Last: 39 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
Heineken-Ashi
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AAPL so far can't get through the channel I posted last night.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
El_duderino
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Haven't had time this work week, so I'm getting to it this weekend
flashplayer
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Heineken-Ashi said:

How many of you read the article I posted twice this week?


I did. Very sobering. Just wish they could have given more points on how to approach it.
bmoochie
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What a candle on SPY minute just now
bhanacik
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I read it, thanks for posting.

It was enlightening and a bit over my head, but it was still a worthwhile read. It seemed very well researched.

One thought that I had while reading was it will be interesting to see how this all plays out 1-2 years from now. I got the feeling from the article that we can just continually kick the can down the road by essentially continuing to change the rules. I'm not sure if that's good or bad.

I also thought, "were there any similar articles like this back several decades ago"? I'm assuming there were and if so, why didn't the majority of people act more proactively to avoid the big downticks. Maybe it's just a testament to people not being educated on the markets and how our government thinks about policy decisions, and the population just blindly DCA's into their 401k's thinking everything will be ok long-term.
flashplayer
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Anyone playing BLDE earnings next week (7th) or BLNK (9th)?
confucius_ag
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Anyone else having trouble with Schwab? I keep getting kicked out.
"Me not know, me not tell, me push button and run like hell."
El Chupacabra
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AMGN!
PeekingDuck
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Heineken-Ashi said:

How many of you read the article I posted twice this week?
Can you repost?
ETX_Ag_22_24
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As someone in their mid 20's, it was a very tough read. The future implications of the Fed's reckless spending/money creation, while being covered up, paints an ugly picture for market participants. Not sure how to counter issue as an investor when the time comes.
Brewmaster
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Heineken-Ashi said:

If BTC cannot hold the $59k bottom from a couple hours ago, there is potential for downside anywhere between $45k and $55k. As of now though, we have a potential completed triangle. If it's to remain, price should rocket up rather quickly which is common for the move that follows triangle corrections. Resistance is very obviously $65k.

If BTC does break below $59k, I feel fairly confident we will get our lower entries on miners. If you thought $15 MARA and $15 CLSK sounded good. Wait until you get $10's.
ah ha, found it. repost for any that need it
Brewmaster
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PeekingDuck said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

How many of you read the article I posted twice this week?
Can you repost?
same Q for me, been working too much to pay attention here
MRB10
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flashplayer
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PeekingDuck said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

How many of you read the article I posted twice this week?
Can you repost?


http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/L5WkshpOver.html
El_duderino
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http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/L5WkshpOver.html
Brewmaster
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bhanacik said:

I read it, thanks for posting.

I also thought, "were there any similar articles like this back several decades ago"? I'm assuming there were and if so, why didn't the majority of people act more proactively to avoid the big downticks. Maybe it's just a testament to people not being educated on the markets and how our government thinks about policy decisions, and the population just blindly DCA's into their 401k's thinking everything will be ok long-term.
unfortunately, I think most have been trained via media and a seemingly forever skyrocketing market, to believe printing more money is a good thing. I haven't read the article yet, but there hasn't been enough talk like this and enough proper education.
PeekingDuck
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Thanks, my dudes
LMCane
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El Chupacabra said:

AMGN!
an interesting discussion we should have on the board at some point is this for the future:

when AMGEN rocks it, then Wegovy and Novo and Lily falter because there is fear market share will be lost now.

the same for when NVIDIA stumbles because TSML or another chip maker has a great quarter.

so the issue is- is there any type of chart to view to see when one stock does well that there is an inverse correlation with another group of stocks?

I would imagine hedge funds have to know this.
Heineken-Ashi
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bhanacik said:

I read it, thanks for posting.

It was enlightening and a bit over my head, but it was still a worthwhile read. It seemed very well researched.

One thought that I had while reading was it will be interesting to see how this all plays out 1-2 years from now. I got the feeling from the article that we can just continually kick the can down the road by essentially continuing to change the rules. I'm not sure if that's good or bad.

I also thought, "were there any similar articles like this back several decades ago"? I'm assuming there were and if so, why didn't the majority of people act more proactively to avoid the big downticks. Maybe it's just a testament to people not being educated on the markets and how our government thinks about policy decisions, and the population just blindly DCA's into their 401k's thinking everything will be ok long-term.
There's not much the people can do. They gave away control of the currency in 1913. So when the FED expanded its power to manipulate in 2008, and then again in 2020, and THEN AGAIN in 2023, the only thing we could do was shake out heads. The politicians don't have a clue how it all works. And when the FED comes in and says "we are doing this TO SAVE YOU", 90% of the population says "ok, thanks!". Why? Because we're fat and happy from decades of free money fake prosperity, and objecting to the FED would mean objecting to your own false sense of prosperity.

And no, they can't kick the can forever. They can try, but the FED is not the market and cannot control markets. Go back and read my highlighted quote from the article again. When the secondary market refuses to buy our debt except at higher returns (higher bond yields), the FED will have lost control, rates will spiral upward, the stock market will crash.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Took a good chunk of TNA profit off the table.
Heineken-Ashi
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And for the perma bulls, what is the upside for the market rest of the year? 5500? That's 7-8% from here. You can get 5% in some money markets and 5% in 3-6 month T-bills. Why risk it from this point forward? Holding out for 6,000? And if it doesn't come and we drop?

Risk management should be priority #1 right now unless you just don't care if you lose all your gains from this year.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
ProgN
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Took a good chunk of TNA profit off the table.



El_duderino
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ProgN
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El_duderino said:


bmoochie
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ProgN said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

Took a good chunk of TNA profit off the table.




Ok this second one I saw halfway through the sequence and I was like what a minute, where did that ball come out of?! Killed me hahahaha
MRB10
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That's definitely not the first time she's been on a pool table with balls coming her direction.
bhanacik
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Heineken-Ashi said:

bhanacik said:

I read it, thanks for posting.

It was enlightening and a bit over my head, but it was still a worthwhile read. It seemed very well researched.

One thought that I had while reading was it will be interesting to see how this all plays out 1-2 years from now. I got the feeling from the article that we can just continually kick the can down the road by essentially continuing to change the rules. I'm not sure if that's good or bad.

I also thought, "were there any similar articles like this back several decades ago"? I'm assuming there were and if so, why didn't the majority of people act more proactively to avoid the big downticks. Maybe it's just a testament to people not being educated on the markets and how our government thinks about policy decisions, and the population just blindly DCA's into their 401k's thinking everything will be ok long-term.
There's not much the people can do. They gave away control of the currency in 1913. So when the FED expanded its power to manipulate in 2008, and then again in 2020, and THEN AGAIN in 2023, the only thing we could do was shake out heads. The politicians don't have a clue how it all works. And when the FED comes in and says "we are doing this TO SAVE YOU", 90% of the population says "ok, thanks!". Why? Because we're fat and happy from decades of free money fake prosperity, and objecting to the FED would mean objecting to your own false sense of prosperity.

And no, they can't kick the can forever. They can try, but the FED is not the market and cannot control markets. Go back and read my highlighted quote from the article again. When the secondary market refuses to buy our debt except at higher returns (higher bond yields), the FED will have lost control, rates will spiral upward, the stock market will crash.
I guess this is my point - don't you think people had similar thoughts back in 2007, 2019, and 2022 saying the exact same things prior to the FED changing the rules?

If there's nothing we can do but shake our heads and we have no choices other than to keep playing the game or just sit it out; it seems the better financial decision would have been to keep playing the game (keep investing $$ into the market)

Brewmaster
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ETX_Ag_22_24 said:

As someone in their mid 20's, it was a very tough read. The future implications of the Fed's reckless spending/money creation, while being covered up, paints an ugly picture for market participants. Not sure how to counter issue as an investor when the time comes.
I also scanned an article he wrote that was linked in it (on housing). He had an eye popping figure in it.

a $45k real estate investment (yes 45k, not 450), turning into $4.5 million - almost all due to inflation. He was making the argument that the worst inflation we have seen, hasn't even begun yet. and now more than ever, it will be important to own your home.
ETX_Ag_22_24
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This may be a dumb question, but let's say you don't have the capital for an investment of that nature. Would it be possible to partially participate in real estate by purchasing stocks in the industry? Obviously your upside is limited, but if all real estate capitalizes upward due to inflation, would the stock prices in the industry follow suit?
Heineken-Ashi
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bhanacik said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

bhanacik said:

I read it, thanks for posting.

It was enlightening and a bit over my head, but it was still a worthwhile read. It seemed very well researched.

One thought that I had while reading was it will be interesting to see how this all plays out 1-2 years from now. I got the feeling from the article that we can just continually kick the can down the road by essentially continuing to change the rules. I'm not sure if that's good or bad.

I also thought, "were there any similar articles like this back several decades ago"? I'm assuming there were and if so, why didn't the majority of people act more proactively to avoid the big downticks. Maybe it's just a testament to people not being educated on the markets and how our government thinks about policy decisions, and the population just blindly DCA's into their 401k's thinking everything will be ok long-term.
There's not much the people can do. They gave away control of the currency in 1913. So when the FED expanded its power to manipulate in 2008, and then again in 2020, and THEN AGAIN in 2023, the only thing we could do was shake out heads. The politicians don't have a clue how it all works. And when the FED comes in and says "we are doing this TO SAVE YOU", 90% of the population says "ok, thanks!". Why? Because we're fat and happy from decades of free money fake prosperity, and objecting to the FED would mean objecting to your own false sense of prosperity.

And no, they can't kick the can forever. They can try, but the FED is not the market and cannot control markets. Go back and read my highlighted quote from the article again. When the secondary market refuses to buy our debt except at higher returns (higher bond yields), the FED will have lost control, rates will spiral upward, the stock market will crash.
I guess this is my point - don't you think people had similar thoughts back in 2007, 2019, and 2022 saying the exact same things prior to the FED changing the rules?

If there's nothing we can do but shake our heads and we have no choices other than to keep playing the game or just sit it out; it seems the better financial decision would have been to keep playing the game (keep investing $$ into the market)


No, because what they did in 2008 was unprecedented. From another Daniel Amerman article..

Quote:

There has been a mass illusion of the Fed printing money without limits. The objective facts can be seen by looking at - and more importantly, actually understanding - the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. The fact is that money printing is only of four core sources of spending power for the Fed, and it was only the third most important source of funds in 2021.
Quote:

Quote:
The objective facts are that the Fed bought $3.7 trillion in new assets by taking out $3.7 trillion in new debts. The Fed borrows the money to spend the money. Any beliefs that state otherwise, are opinions that are not based on the facts.
Quote:

Quote:
While few people realize it to this day, the primary funding for the Federal Reserve radically changed in 2008 when emergency legislation brought forward the effective date of the Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act of 2006.

The global banking system was teetering on the brink of collapse, and neither the government nor the Fed had the money to rescue them - so the U.S. government changed the law, to give the Federal Reserve unprecedented back door access to the U.S. banking system and the spending power of our bank accounts.

This new back door access allowed the Fed to quickly grab almost $800 billion from the nation's banks - that are funded by our deposits - and to use that money to rescue the global banking system. If the Fed had not had access to the spending power of our banking system - the system would have collapsed, there were no "strong banks" in practice. This is critical information to keep in mind if there is another major crisis in the banking system.

It was this back door access that was the source of funds for the quantitative easings, as the Fed used its new trillions in spending power to fund the growth in the national debt while taking unprecedented control of interest rates. It was our bank accounts that were the source of funds that the government used to shower the country with stimulus checks, sending us back our own money in redistributed form.

Quote:

Quote:
The money printing did occur. But it was relatively minor when compared to the raid on our bank accounts. So, the idea that it is all money printing is a myth. Indeed, it is a convenient myth for the Federal Reserve and U.S. government. So long as people mistakenly think it is all money printing, then they don't think to look elsewhere for the real source, which is the massive back door emptying of the spending power in our bank accounts.
And now the chickens are starting to come home to roost. It's way too late to do anything about it, as pointed out in the first article. The only thing they can do is continue to borrow money to pay off previously borrowed money. And the sources to borrow from are drying up which means borrowers are going to increasingly demand higher rates. 2008 recovered BECAUSE they didn't print money. The taxpayer was completely oblivious that their money was stolen and then loaned back to them (well, not them.. mostly the more wealthy class who got rich off of it). They are oblivious today that the only way 2023 wasn't the start of the collapse was because of a new backdoor, BTFP, which had the Fed borrowing money, that they had previously loaned to banks, and paying banks higher interest than the what the banks were paying them. One giant circle of life that used newly borrowed money to inject cash into banks at a time when banks were about to crumble.

Can they concoct some new ponzi scheme to kick the can? Sure? But it's not going to stop things from deteriorating. and the pace of deterioration will continue to exponentially grow., lessening the time between events where they have to pull of new version of miracle rescues. But again, their balance sheet is screwed where it wasn't before. And if they drop rates, it will be the first time they have dropped when bond rates didn't drop first. You can welcome in hyperinflation in that case.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
bmoochie
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I won't speak for the stock portion but I actually just had this conversation with my financial advisor who handles my Roth/extra insurance/529. She stated that if you have enough equity in your house, you can essentially buy the property outright with a loan and using house as collateral. So for the sake of round numbers let's say I was looking at a $50k lot. I can own that property today and only have to pay the interest on it if that's what I wanted to do.

So lets say interest is 5%, i would only pay $2500 per year I have it. If my sole purpose was to flip in a three years and sell for lets say $80k. I would have only paid $7500 on this property that I now was able to sell for significant profit.

Now to preface I have not done any research on this yet to dive into this but it was a fairly quick conversation. Heini I think your background is real estate so you can maybe provide more detail on that.
Heineken-Ashi
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bmoochie said:

I won't speak for the stock portion but I actually just had this conversation with my financial advisor who handles my Roth/extra insurance/529. She stated that if you have enough equity in your house, you can essentially buy the property outright with a loan and using house as collateral. So for the sake of round numbers let's say I was looking at a $50k lot. I can own that property today and only have to pay the interest on it if that's what I wanted to do.

So lets say interest is 5%, i would only pay $2500 per year I have it. If my sole purpose was to flip in a three years and sell for lets say $80k. I would have only paid $7500 on this property that I now was able to sell for significant profit.

Now to preface I have not done any research on this yet to dive into this but it was a fairly quick conversation. Heini I think your background is real estate so you can maybe provide more detail on that.
Sounds like a HELOC. Borrowing from your equity at today's rates, paying interest only on the amount you draw, refunding it with proceeds from an investment. Just talked to jja79 on the phone about it for a remodel I need done.

And why would the bank want to do that? Because their investment (loan to you for your house) is locked in at rates that likely won't be seen again. They are getting paid from you less than they are paying on their own borrowings. Letting you access your equity and paying interest on it, means they get more from their investment in your house than they would have previously, with no additional risk.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
bmoochie
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Yup HELOC that was the term...could not remember
Ag13
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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/03/trump-media-auditor-charged-by-sec-with-massive-fraud-permanently-barred-from-public-company-audits.html

Not meant to be political but interesting story here about a fake audit mill

Looked up Mr. Borgers and turns out he's a Fightin' Texas Aggie

https://www.bfbcpa.us/about-us/

Some good content for accounting ethics classes at Mays
ETX_Ag_22_24
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Dr. Shaub would have eaten this up. Announced his retirement a couple of days ago! His ethics class was amazing
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