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oldarmy1
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valvemonkey91
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Bonfire.1996 said:

I do expect SMCI to announce a split sometime before the next earnings report. There will be pressure from institutional holders to calm the volatility.


How big of a split? 3:1? What your opinion?
flashplayer
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What's the target on POWL for those of you who played it? Taking profits now or holding?
nortex97
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Thx again. Very informative.
I bleed maroon
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OK - let's talk about splits. This is a more global assessment, for the purpose of education for any individual investors on the board (and not directed toward any individual stock or poster). My opinions:

1) It is a FACT that there is no financial impact to a stock that undergoes a split (regular or reverse). The total value of your holdings is identical after the split is announced, and when it actually takes place. THERE IS NO VALUE CREATED FROM A SPLIT.

2) Generally, a stock that has somewhat regular splits is likely to be a good company. Companies whose stock is stagnant are not likely to "need" splits to stay in a preferred trading range. Therefore, stock splits don't make companies great, but great companies often have stock splits.

3) The tangible positive effects of splits are mainly for individual investors, who can more efficiently trade options (i.e. covered calls) on the underlying stock if the price per share is lower. A holder of 50 shares can't write covered calls, while if a 2 for 1 split occurs, they can write calls on a position of 100 shares. It also can lead to more liquidity and availability of shares, which can enable better trade execution.

4) The tangible negative effects of splits are that lower stock prices can potentially allow more stock manipulation, since derivatives are relatively more accessible. Also, even a simple mechanical split does create some minor friction and expense to the company (and therefore the shareholder).

5. Reverse splits are pretty much the opposite argument of the above, and it is generally true that great companies don't have reverse stock splits (because their share value is usually increasing over time). Usually, if a company has repeated reverse stock splits (to maintain ability to trade on the NYSE or NASDAQ, for example), it's a flashing neon sign that indicates "stay away".

I know others have different opinions, so please chime in and tell me where I'm wrong!
Heineken-Ashi
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I bleed maroon said:

4) The tangible negative effects of splits are that lower stock prices can potentially allow more stock manipulation, since derivatives are relatively more accessible. Also, even a simple mechanical split does create some minor friction and expense to the company (and therefore the shareholder).
Yes and no.

While a lower price means easier access to derivatives, a high price that is out of reach for the common investor leaves only institutional access to derivatives which I would argue opens it up to MORE manipulation, as there is no checks and balances from the sentiment of the regular investor/trader.
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ProgN
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flashplayer said:

What's the target on POWL for those of you who played it? Taking profits now or holding?
I'm holding and I think it will go through $200, maybe not today, but soon.
I bleed maroon
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Heineken-Ashi said:

I bleed maroon said:

4) The tangible negative effects of splits are that lower stock prices can potentially allow more stock manipulation, since derivatives are relatively more accessible. Also, even a simple mechanical split does create some minor friction and expense to the company (and therefore the shareholder).
Yes and no.

While a lower price means easier access to derivatives, a high price that is out of reach for the common investor leaves only institutional access to derivatives which I would argue opens it up to MORE manipulation, as there is no checks and balances from the sentiment of the regular investor/trader.
Totally agree - - I originally had something to that effect in the "positive effects" category, but realized I would have written a novel by that point, so I kept the post somewhat summarized.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Closed my may 140p for a buck, sold 2 june 190c for 11 and one for 10, net free ++ on 2 remaining...will trim one if price goes 185+, riding other to valhalla
Heineken-Ashi
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ProgN said:

flashplayer said:

What's the target on POWL for those of you who played it? Taking profits now or holding?
I'm holding and I think it will go through $200, maybe not today, but soon.
$210-$220 if it gets a new high
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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El_duderino
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Holding onto POWL as well. Should it have a big pullback, I'll add more shares
sosolik
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Any thoughts on previously mentioned TALO?
McInnis 03
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POWL is a solid gap fill short for the morning, you may get your pull back to close to yesterdays close.
Texaggie7nine
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ProgN said:

Texaggie7nine said:

Doubled up on POWL this morning and went in on SMCI about as much as well. Maybe I'll break even tomorrow.
Do not take a loss on SMCI, just weather the storm. Wall Street just pissy because they didn't declare a split. SMCI should've and their advisors they're listening to are f'ing morons, but I'll be adding more of it if it opens down $100
So how much did you take? Guess I'll hodl.
7nine
txaggie_08
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Seems like it Model T'ed and now on its way back up.
flashplayer
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Texaggie7nine said:

ProgN said:

Texaggie7nine said:

Doubled up on POWL this morning and went in on SMCI about as much as well. Maybe I'll break even tomorrow.
Do not take a loss on SMCI, just weather the storm. Wall Street just pissy because they didn't declare a split. SMCI should've and their advisors they're listening to are f'ing morons, but I'll be adding more of it if it opens down $100
So how much did you take? Guess I'll hodl.


It's down over $150 today. Man I hope it's going to have a rebound move here pretty quickly or this medicine is gonna be hard to swallow.

I'm still a bit fearful of doubling down on it here and buying more shares, but I gave it a shot and got my cost basis per share down to $776
McInnis 03
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McInnis 03 said:

POWL is a solid gap fill short for the morning, you may get your pull back to close to yesterdays close.
Y'all are SO welcome.

V is for VICTORY
Brian Earl Spilner
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I've got buys on NVDA down to 780.

750 seem to be the make or break support?
Heineken-Ashi
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Crude $77.50 - $78.50 is support. If yall remember my post from a couple weeks ago about the daily RSI sell signal I got, well, it's almost reset now and we are far above the $67 low which is great for oil bullish potential. If we can bottom in that range, Crude should target $90-$95 on next move up. Watching many O&G names as we move into support.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Heineken-Ashi
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

I've got buys on NVDA down to 780.

750 seem to be the make or break support?
Mid $600's not out of the question.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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AgPT06
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Anyone picking up some AMD with some tight stops? I sold a large amount at 200 and trying to decide when want to get back in for IRA. If it gets below 141.5 looks like it could lose a lot more so will likely see how rest of week goes.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Trend spider calling 138 for a 200sma touch, I'm going to take a position there if we get it
Heineken-Ashi
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

Trend spider calling 138 for a 200sma touch, I'm going to take a position there if we get it
Bottom ticking can be hard on a FED day. But I like that area too. Tight stop.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Bonfire.1996
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valvemonkey91 said:

Bonfire.1996 said:

I do expect SMCI to announce a split sometime before the next earnings report. There will be pressure from institutional holders to calm the volatility.


How big of a split? 3:1? What your opinion?
id say at least 5:1 but I'm not a professional.
FishrCoAg
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TTD May 10 calls are pretty juiced right now.
Spoony Love
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SPY puts are picking up juice as we move into Fed meeting at one. Calls have held steady all day.
Heineken-Ashi
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Spoony Love said:

SPY puts are picking up juice as we move into Fed meeting at one. Calls have held steady all day.
If the market were to boom on Fed, the short covering and put sales could be crazy.

As always, expect a roller coaster. First move doesn't necessarily dictate direction. And it might not even be until tomorrow (momentum from today could carry it one way or the other) or Friday until true next direction is decided.

There are plenty of promising setups on individual stocks, but overall, the indexes are in a downward pattern and my bias is lower highs and lower lows until it fails.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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Spoony Love
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I'm in complete agreement with the downward move overall. Just picking up the trend of premium in puts picking up. Could indicate an early direction for today but, it will likely take until Friday for the real direction to appear.
ProgN
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Texaggie7nine said:

ProgN said:

Texaggie7nine said:

Doubled up on POWL this morning and went in on SMCI about as much as well. Maybe I'll break even tomorrow.
Do not take a loss on SMCI, just weather the storm. Wall Street just pissy because they didn't declare a split. SMCI should've and their advisors they're listening to are f'ing morons, but I'll be adding more of it if it opens down $100
So how much did you take? Guess I'll hodl.
Bought my shares at $750. I'm not worried about SMCI at all.
Heineken-Ashi
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The most important piece of reading. I strongly urge each of you to set aside some time and read this entire article, making sure you don't gloss over any part of it. It touches on the FED, banks, CRE, inflation, government debt, and everything in between.

Spring 2024 Situation Review by Daniel Amerman

This is literally a small excerpt. Like I said, set aside 30 mins and truly read every word of this.

Quote:

As we will be reviewing in detail at the Spring 2024 workshop, when we look at #2 above, the balance sheets of the banking system, and we compare it to #4 above, the explosive growth in deficits - then we have a fundamental divergence. To keep $1 trillion in new debt funded every 100 days, and to do so at what are from a historical perspective still quite low interest rates, may require pulling a lot of new money from the balance sheets of the Fed and banks every 100 days. The problem is - that money isn't there, the banking system is in trouble.

Someone has to fund that new $1 trillion every 100 days. The less that the Fed and the banks can fund, the more that other market participants have to fund. What this meant before 2008, is that large increases in government debt required increases in interest rates to pull in more money. If this happens, it basically shatters the foundational premise of most markets today, which is that the Fed is in control of medium and long term interest rates.

This is another example of a model failure that is still in the early stages, and could get much worse at any time. The Fed in its hubris assumed that there would never be higher inflation, and therefore, there would never be higher interest rates. When the Fed's mistakes set off the inflation, and the Fed increased interest rates to try to contain the inflation, it simultaneously set off an interest payment spiral in the national debt, even while the same increase in interest rates created massive losses on the balance sheets of the Fed and banking system, which now limits the ability to fund the deficits. This then creates another potential point of failure for #1 above, which is the market damage resulting from the Fed potentially losing control of interest rates due to its inability to fund the fantastic rate of growth in the national debt.

What we have underway right now is a ticking clock. Unless there is A) a radical reduction in deficits; or B) a radical change in monetary creation that separates it from the balance sheets of the banking system; then at some point as a result of what is already underway, we will likely get C) a return to the historic norm of the interest rates for medium and long term government debt being set by the markets; which will likely lead to D) extraordinary losses in inflation-adjusted terms for many securities and most retirement accounts, as the last of Rational Bubble is popped with a return to long term average valuations.

To say that the current system will necessarily break may seem a bit hyperbolic - but, this is a good place to step back and look at history. For all of US financial history prior to 2008, we did not have an activist Federal Reserve using the deposits of the banking system (via banking reserves) to control medium and long term interest rates, while funding the national debt as it grew to unprecedented levels, while promising unlimited monetary creation to bail out markets as needed. We've been living inside an unprecedented aberration - a bizarrely different financial environment - that is showing multiple signs of breaking under strain. The "doomsday scenario" discussed is simply market forces bringing a return to the normal market environment that existed before 2008, something that most financial and economic authorities in the 20th century would have treated as not only possible but necessary and even inevitable.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
txaggie_08
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I don't know how the markets pick up any upward steam from the Fed today. Inflation is showing no signs of slowing, how can they spin much positivity?

That said, I'm sure since this is what I'm thinking I'll be completely wrong and the market will send off into another bull run.
flashplayer
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UEC has been very kind to me each time I've bought dips to the 6.60s/6.70s recently. Today it bounced after the bell and I pocketed 10%. Since then it is close to re-entering buy territory at 6.82.

I like UEC for the long haul because of the nice supply & demand setup for uranium and their position in the US / Canadian market. The best thing about their stock lately has been it bounces predictably enough to make a nice chunk of cash just watching each new sawblade form.
Heineken-Ashi
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Triangle in BTC is broken. $48k is minimum expectation. $43k would be a more impulsive downward move into a bottom.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
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txaggie_08 said:

I don't know how the markets pick up any upward steam from the Fed today. Inflation is showing no signs of slowing, how can they spin much positivity?

That said, I'm sure since this is what I'm thinking I'll be completely wrong and the market will send off into another bull run.
Maybe because as of yesterday, sentiment got oversold on intraday timeframes leading into it.

But markets in downtrends can stay oversold far longer than in uptrends. Which again, is why I truly have no call for FED move but am staying biased downward beyond this week.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
harge57
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So is now a good day to make a first move into SMCI?
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