SMCI announces earnings date but does NOT announce pre-release which sends it WAY down below the 50-day ema. Could be a lotto watcher.
Stock Markets
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Last: 52 sec ago by Chef Elko
If ARM breaks below 100 and stays, it could be a nice quick short opp.
ProgN said:
We're going green
Bet you're glad you sold those puts for profit now huh
I never regret booking profits, no matter the amount.bmoochie said:ProgN said:
We're going green
Bet you're glad you sold those puts for profit now huh
I'm looking at calls though now.
AMD new low before open for the week. Not sure this is a call opportunity in the market.
Friday lotto play SPY 505c. If you follow expect to lose it all but you might get rewarded.
McInnis 03 said:
Fridays limited news rreleases = no 7am play today. Bummer
Btw, watch DJT today, it has that meme feel to it in premkt
Ah what the hell. I'm in for 100 shares just for fun.
Out of HUMA. Thanks for the rec! Keeping this on the watchlist, I need to follow the politician stock tracker more.
Up 7% as of now. You thinking I should take the money and run or hold on?Chef Elko said:
Out of HUMA. Thanks for the rec! Keeping this on the watchlist, I need to follow the politician stock tracker more.
I didn't have many shares and taking a single here. Tubberville bought at levels just below this so everyone is in good shape, I don't think he's selling on a bounce. It has momentum to fill the gap at $4.25 but if it loses that momentum I'll jump back in around Tubberville levels.
I sold half of my my shares at 7% and now its at 12%.....
Going to let the last half ride with ole Tubby
Going to let the last half ride with ole Tubby
That's six days of the same. Green open to another red day.
Have another longer term play on a familiar name.
BLDE - November $5 calls - currently $0.35 bid and $0.55 ask with $0.50 last price. 841 open interest. August has the same OI.
Target is $9.90 stock price between August and November for $4.90 contract value plus any time premium based on when it hits for a nearly 10x. I'll put a minimum target of $6.90 as an alternate for contract value of $1.90 or nearly 4x. Support as of now is $3.00 to $3.35 with earnings on May 7. Goal is to buy a tranche now and then buy a second tranche should it drop into support zone. Maybe 10 calls on each tranche. Below $3.00 stock price and would have to re-assess to see if there is any sort of bounce even with the play likely invalidating.
I'm counting BLDE as having completed an ending diagonal down from the April 2022 high to the Nov 2023 low. Like I explained with IWM, when ED's complete, they almost always reverse back to where they started from and do so in half the time. August would be that 1/2 time but November's aren't a huge premium in contract value over August so I like giving ourselves the extra time wiggle room.
BLDE - November $5 calls - currently $0.35 bid and $0.55 ask with $0.50 last price. 841 open interest. August has the same OI.
Target is $9.90 stock price between August and November for $4.90 contract value plus any time premium based on when it hits for a nearly 10x. I'll put a minimum target of $6.90 as an alternate for contract value of $1.90 or nearly 4x. Support as of now is $3.00 to $3.35 with earnings on May 7. Goal is to buy a tranche now and then buy a second tranche should it drop into support zone. Maybe 10 calls on each tranche. Below $3.00 stock price and would have to re-assess to see if there is any sort of bounce even with the play likely invalidating.
I'm counting BLDE as having completed an ending diagonal down from the April 2022 high to the Nov 2023 low. Like I explained with IWM, when ED's complete, they almost always reverse back to where they started from and do so in half the time. August would be that 1/2 time but November's aren't a huge premium in contract value over August so I like giving ourselves the extra time wiggle room.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
What do you think about buying/holding shares for 2024?Heineken-Ashi said:
Have another longer term play on a familiar name.
BLDE
Price levels laid out in the previous post. Can easily play shares, but I like the options because ED reversals are the only plays that give you both a time AND price target. So knowing the timeline, the options will pay out multiples more than the shares at a fraction of the cost.South Platte said:What do you think about buying/holding shares for 2024?Heineken-Ashi said:
Have another longer term play on a familiar name.
BLDE
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
When you say long term bear market, what is your timeframe?
Taking a small gamble. I just bot 1 POWL 5/17 160c @$3.50. If they hit $200 after earnings then $4K+ profit for $350 bet in a month are odds that are just my game.
Tangent: Anyone friends with TA decision makers irl? If so, see if they'll give us a dollar emoji ($).
ETA: I also have a GTC order for 1 POWL 6/21 180c @ $2.50.
Tangent: Anyone friends with TA decision makers irl? If so, see if they'll give us a dollar emoji ($).
ETA: I also have a GTC order for 1 POWL 6/21 180c @ $2.50.
My take on this morning:
Tech stocks wanted to dump.
Oil & Banks had $$$ flow in to keep indexes from breaking.
If the above is true, either money will switch from Oil & Banks to Tech or Oil & Banks might have capped up and now everything can go down together.
Tech stocks wanted to dump.
Oil & Banks had $$$ flow in to keep indexes from breaking.
If the above is true, either money will switch from Oil & Banks to Tech or Oil & Banks might have capped up and now everything can go down together.
nortex97 said:
He mighta gotten insight from his armed services committee seat about their vascular graft approval…which got a lot of data from use/applications in Ukraine.
https://investors.humacyte.com/news-releases/news-release-details/human-acellular-vesseltm-havtm-biologics-license-application
Caveat; I have no idea. Humacyte I've had a tangential interest in with my wife being T1D and they have a project for islet cell transplants with JDRF but I haven't seen chatter about that since it was announced last April.
Bought some yesterday. Up 23%. Thanks.
Just one more push down to LOD and I swear I'll sell these puts and stop averaging down
While risking sounding like a nut, could be anywhere from 10-20 years, obviously with multi-month and multi-year bull markets separating out the larger drawdowns, but slowly eroding price over time back to 2000-2009 levels. Nothing is a certainty, but I can't stress enough risk management right now. Things are teetering on the edge of a cliff and we have a volatile election coming up and all sorts of alarm bells going off.Pignorant said:
When you say long term bear market, what is your timeframe?
Zoom out on the all time SPX chart and put it in log mode. Zoom out on the 15 year chart going back to 2009. Zoom out on the 5 year chart going back to COVID. There's a lot of open air below. I don't think we see SPX 1,000 or anything, but it wouldn't shock me to see 3,000 again and maybe even lower.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Some serious gap teasing is happening. I think bulls are trying to stop the gap fill and are about to lose. We're in trouble if they lose. There is a weekly gap in SPY down to around 482, but there are a couple supports between. Jan 19 - 22 gap is very small but a gap nonetheless.
AMD under $150
I believe we filled it at 10:36...so let's see what happens now...my guess is a bit of a bounce...but wouldn't surprise me to see a puke to close out the week...
I have the gap down to 497.21. It's a game of inches right?
If rates stay high and market factors worsen than 5% t-bills is going to sound a lot better than equities for large sums of money.Heineken-Ashi said:While risking sounding like a nut, could be anywhere from 10-20 years, obviously with multi-month and multi-year bull markets separating out the larger drawdowns, but slowly eroding price over time back to 2000-2009 levels. Nothing is a certainty, but I can't stress enough risk management right now. Things are teetering on the edge of a cliff and we have a volatile election coming up and all sorts of alarm bells going off.Pignorant said:
When you say long term bear market, what is your timeframe?
Zoom out on the all time SPX chart and put it in log mode. Zoom out on the 15 year chart going back to 2009. Zoom out on the 5 year chart going back to COVID. There's a lot of open air below. I don't think we see SPX 1,000 or anything, but it wouldn't shock me to see 3,000 again and maybe even lower.
I too don't think SPX 1000 or anything but a drop back to pre covid levels at least isn't out of the question.
Generational buying opportunity if you are below he age of 45.
If you are over 45 manage risk like beer candle guy said.
Is there a play to take advantage of this SMCI crater?
you're good now 
Yes, IF we get large drawdown, it will a similar buying opportunity as 2009.SF2004 said:If rates stay high and market factors worsen than 5% t-bills is going to sound a lot better than equities for large sums of money.Heineken-Ashi said:While risking sounding like a nut, could be anywhere from 10-20 years, obviously with multi-month and multi-year bull markets separating out the larger drawdowns, but slowly eroding price over time back to 2000-2009 levels. Nothing is a certainty, but I can't stress enough risk management right now. Things are teetering on the edge of a cliff and we have a volatile election coming up and all sorts of alarm bells going off.Pignorant said:
When you say long term bear market, what is your timeframe?
Zoom out on the all time SPX chart and put it in log mode. Zoom out on the 15 year chart going back to 2009. Zoom out on the 5 year chart going back to COVID. There's a lot of open air below. I don't think we see SPX 1,000 or anything, but it wouldn't shock me to see 3,000 again and maybe even lower.
I too don't think SPX 1000 or anything but a drop back to pre covid levels at least isn't out of the question.
Generational buying opportunity if you are below he age of 45.
If you are over 45 manage risk like beer candle guy said.
What I don't expect is a COVID like drop, and maybe not even a 2008 like drop. I think there could be times where we have significant drops, but I foresee an overall more drawn out, sustained bear market.
All of that said, while multiple supports have now broken, the bull market isn't dead yet. The nature of the next significant bounce back up will tell us if we need to prepare for the worst case or stay invested. I just advise everyone to have a plan ready for all of your accounts. DCA'ing into a long sustained bear market means every dollar is immediately losing value and working AGAINST the grain.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
See if this SPY 497 holds up.
I do think JPM/WFC/MS are put plays still.
Window has likely passed on this now.
Window has likely passed on this now.
Prog When are you going to start nibbling on AIQ?
Anyone remember what the Mode Yugo guidelines were again?
Every 5% drop from highs add another piece to your SPY or equivalent
Every 5% drop from highs add another piece to your SPY or equivalent
When our Model Yugo leader comes back to grace us with "Another bite of VTI" you should probably listen. He's done a good job timing. I think it's AgOutsideAustin?
HoustonAg_2009 said:
Prog When are you going to start nibbling on AIQ?
I do believe that AI is going to be the next major jump in society and I want to always have participation in it. That said, AIQ will not be something I trade, it will be where I park 5-10% of the profit each trade that I make off my active trading. I'm treating it like a savings account. I don't even look at it because I consider it just planted profits and not tradeable.
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