TSMC earnings tomorrow before open. Any speculation on them beating? ASML down 7% this morning on poor earnings.

So we can expect them to go under if we don't just vote for dilution?

gggmann said:

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TSMC earnings tomorrow before open. Any speculation on them beating? ASML down 7% this morning on poor earnings.

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Not sure if they will beat. But I'd be surprised if the stock makes new highs.

Chef Elko said:

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So we can expect them to go under if we don't just vote for dilution?

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I'm not sure. But shares have been rising since 2020 almost complete inverse of the price chart. I'm not sure if these would hit all at once or be spread out over another 5 years.

dumb question that I'm sure has been answered.

how does WWR continue to trade on the NYSE at under a buck? I thought they would risk delisting

I'm sure we can get someone here on the board. We have to have an oil and gas guy familiar with raising capital as a microcap with little cash flow looking to develop assets.

Hold on to your butts. 500 SPY inbound.

confucius_ag said:

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Hold on to your butts. 500 SPY inbound.

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Bring it. I've been feathering puts all week that expire on Friday

Intraday action: 21 SMA has crossed the 50 on the 5 min, 10, and 30 min timeline. About to cross on the 15 min chart. Daily SMAs are continuing a down turn. This would typically indicate a further down move.

Nibbled some TQQQ at $54.50.

Last had it on Feb 22 when I sold at $60.22.

Diggity said:

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dumb question that I'm sure has been answered.

how does WWR continue to trade on the NYSE at under a buck? I thought they would risk delisting

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I really don't have an answer

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Diggity said:

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dumb question that I'm sure has been answered.

how does WWR continue to trade on the NYSE at under a buck? I thought they would risk delisting

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I really don't have an answer

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Maybe they feel sorry for TexAgs?

Thanks for sharing and I have no doubt that politics play an important role in not getting funding… It's just crazy to me that they want to push EV down our throat but then when you have a massive critical mineral development in the US that happens to be in a red state (their headquarters is in Colorado I believe) they don't want to help develop it.

NBR has broken down a bit. It it cant' hold the January low around $70, I see potential for one more low between $57 and $64. Still bullish through next year. But I'm out for now and will wait for next support for new R/R opportunity.

All about power and perception I imagine too. Doesn't help the current government to help red states at the moment and the past few years.

how quickly does SPY fill that 2/21 gap around $497 that's destined to fill this week...

We have hit the upper end of my target box for bottom of BTC. Looks like halving is still a day or two away.

Target range was 48k to 59k and we hit 59k.

My main recommendation is to buy BTC. But if you don't want to and just want to trade the ETF's, know that they generally track at par minus management fees. Do your due diligence. Leveraged ETF's can seem enticing but usually include futures rolls and can have decay that underperforms actual BTC. The only ETF I am considering is GBTC. Make sure the fund you pick actually invests in BTC directly.

I would avoid ones like BITO (even if they perform well) because of things like this..

Quote:

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BITO provides exposure to bitcoin returns in an ETF wrapper. The fund does not invest directly in bitcoin. The fund will invest in cash settled, front-month bitcoin futures, traded on commodity exchanges registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), such as the CME Futures Exchange. The value of bitcoin futures is determined by the CME Group and Crypto Facilities Bitcoin Reference Rate (CME CF BRR), which aggregates bitcoin trading activity across major global bitcoin spot trading venues during a one-hour window. The one-hour window is divided equally into twelve 5-minute segments. Each segment has a volume-weighted median (VWM). The BRR value is expressed as the arithmetic mean of the 12 VWMs. Prices are usually determined at 4:00 p.m. (London Time). The fund itself gains exposure through a wholly owned Cayman Island subsidiary.

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If $59k was the bottom, upper target is $120k. If we get down to the $48k zone, $100k remains the upper target.

Below $59k next support is $57k.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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trip98 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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ASO - We probably don't get much lower today. Likely a bounce to $68 creating a H&S. If so, I want one more drop from there to $51-$57 range. My upper target is $89 ultimately, but a lot can break down that would cancel that. Just going to watch and see how it starts to play out.

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don't be putting any bad juju on my beloved ASO!!! Here's to no drops below $60 and hitting your target of $89 soon (I'd be crazy happy with $80!!)

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Hey now, me telling you where the next buying opportunity might be with a critical stop level below is good juju.

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Trip, this is not an I told you so. Just a reminder of what I was tracking. Need to hold above $50 for re-entry. Even then, we want to see that V shape off a low. If we got chop upward, avoid.

If SPY doesn't bounce soon, we're filling a gap below to $497-ish

That's good stuff man!

AMD - Full avoid for me right now. Most bullish case is broken and a lot of room below. AMAT is also breaking down. Chip stocks need to find support and they need to be impulsive off of it. Or else we could be seeing the AI correction starting.

Oil is pulling back. If it continues lower, keep your eye on all the names you want to own while watching Crude. Remember last week how I posted about the crude sell signal I got. A pullback was what I had been wanting to provide better entry opportunities. My list I put out has a "buy under" level and most stops were 20-30% lower. There's a big range between "I don't want to miss out", which was buying last week, and "I want the lowest possible basis" which might end up with you not getting a position. The smart move is somewhere in the middle while minding an appropriate stop (a stop too high is unproductive, don't get too cute).

Heineken, any thoughts on IWM? Do you see it going all the way back to November levels? Seems to me like if it breaks 190 is where all hell will break loose.

Looking like 32 should be my hard stop for TNA based off that.

trip98 said:

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ASO somewhat ending and lessons learned.
Don't post on here a lot but do follow regularly. Not a trader like some of you all are just b/c not much time too give i the attention it needs AND wife went back to school so cash flow was diverted.
Anyways, you all might recall my posts time to time regarding ASO. Used what I learned here as I worked on this part of my holdings. Here's how I've handled it and what I learned
Bought back in January '21 at $21.75 and since then sold CC's on it. Something I had never done till I learned about them here. Always sold not long after earnings and sold OTM with expiry before next earnings. Sometimes bought back to lock in profit. Lowered TCO to $18.20 for a 16% return.
A while ago it ran up to $70 and then slid back. I had TOLD myself I'd sell if it got to $60 but I did NOT enter the stop to trigger automatically. It fell past $60 quickly and I decided to hold and wait. But I also told myself I wouldn't let that happen again.
Recently it runs up to $75. I wait out earnings to sell CC but they disappoint and stock drops. I'm patient but still have the $60 figure in my mind.
Now it's hit $60 and lower. It's more than a home run trade so I only sell 3/4 of my position and have the 1/4 net free just in case it ever runs higher I can juice some more out of it. I don't need the cash now and what I've sold is obviously a solid return in 3 years.

I'm very happy with the "trade" and will look for the next opportunity (likely not soon as I'm very nervous where this market goes the next 6 months)

Key learnings....use CC to lower basis...SET STOPS.....and while I didn't time the top I also didn't let a winner become a loser.

what I could have done better....when it ran up to those highs I could have utilized puts to protect my investment and likely give some premium. Maybe next time

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Good job!

I bought 500 shares the day of their IPO for $16/share. Sold 200 shares via covered calls at $25, 200 more via $35 covered calls, and am holding the last 100 shares for now. Instead of another round of covered calls, I bought a strangle ($65 calls and $40 puts) a few months back, and sold enough of the calls to breakeven on the trade, while the remnants should expire worthless on Friday. Guess I'll hold the last 100 shares while I figure out the next steps. If my math is right, all told it amounts to about a 120% gain over less than 18 months - I'll take it.

Bulls trying to catch the bears out for lunch?

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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trip98 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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ASO - We probably don't get much lower today. Likely a bounce to $68 creating a H&S. If so, I want one more drop from there to $51-$57 range. My upper target is $89 ultimately, but a lot can break down that would cancel that. Just going to watch and see how it starts to play out.

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don't be putting any bad juju on my beloved ASO!!! Here's to no drops below $60 and hitting your target of $89 soon (I'd be crazy happy with $80!!)

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Hey now, me telling you where the next buying opportunity might be with a critical stop level below is good juju.

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Trip, this is not an I told you so. Just a reminder of what I was tracking. Need to hold above $50 for re-entry. Even then, we want to see that V shape off a low. If we got chop upward, avoid.

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Yep, I do remember this. And was something I was watcing and took into consideration.
It's part of the reason I had my stop at $60. I kicked myself for not having that stop in place and getting out at that level. And then buying it back when it dropped to $48-$50. I could then hit it again now at $60 for even more return.
I think those posts were before earnings but can't remember. It's been bouncing around, missed earnings which they've done a few times over the last several quarters, and the uncertainty in the economy with inflation and the middle east I decided to exit but still leave some net free runners.

Like you, going to watch for re-entry as I still believe in ASO and them growing stores and online should be great long term. I think there will be a lot of chop for a while and pressure from macro especially if inflation doesn't cool and feds raise rates again. Eventually the consumer is going to cut back on spending at stores. Already seeing it in cars.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Heineken, any thoughts on IWM? Do you see it going all the way back to November levels? Seems to me like if it breaks 190 is where all hell will break loose.

Looking like 32 should be my hard stop for TNA based off that.

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IWM has been in a correction for multiple years. What everyone saw as rotation into small caps was actually the last leg of an upward move before moving to new lows. Within that last leg, it started impulsively but broke down much deeper in January than would be expected from a strong impulse. Off that low, it recently completed an ending diagonal.

Here's the thing with ED's. They are 5-wave structures that are very overlapping and choppy. This is because while the market is still bullish, it can be considered to have gone "too far too fast" which is why it broke down as deep as it did and began an ED. The ED itself is bulls repeatedly failing to push significantly higher in the previous impulsive manner. It starts to channel more diagonally sideways. And the biggest thing about ED's is that, due to the fact that bulls can't push very far, they almost always retrace back to their origin. And in the vast majority of cases, they do so in half the time that they took to complete the ED.

This chart below shows the blue lines as beginning and end of the ED with the far right blue line being 2x the time the ED took. The yellow lines show the 1/2 time, and what that 1/2 would project to from the end. $189 is the target and early May is the target date. And it is tracking quite well. I've been in on puts for two weeks, have closed out some, and am still printing bills in the others. I didn't advise these because they were part of a trading group I belong to and I do not share paid for ideas. What's hard to judge is the exact shape its taking down. My chart is just a guess. But the likelihood of the $189-$190 bottom is very very high.



There will be some sort of rally off that bottom. But it isn't likely to last too long (maybe a couple weeks to a couple months) and it will be nothing more than a retracement into a resistance zone, likely around $200. After that, the big down wave commences toward the completion of this multi-year correction and the target range is $125-$140.