TQQQ getting my attention if it falls below $50.
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Last: 1 min ago by EliteZags
The S&P 500 closes below its 50 day simple moving average for the first time since November 2023. 🚨$SPY Volume PoC from the October low currently sits around $474. pic.twitter.com/vvwtl6uZ2x
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) April 15, 2024
Agreed. It may be short lived, but a bounce tomorrow, at least.
AMD broke below $160, barely. And lower and I will have to reconsider the bullish outlook.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
We went with some more Puts before close. Wanted to have closer strike expecting a potential down overnight session. Futures down over 13 now.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Brewmaster said:
Thanks for the tip, we will definitely try it!
and gougler, you were right, terminal D is a dumpster fire. We are way early though.
Bourbon duty free, yes please!
Probably to late, but if you find John J Bowman, Virginia Straight Bourbon, Single Barrel - buy it - it you dont like I'll refund you (of course I want what's left) . That juice is the best for anyone hands down.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Anybody here think that continued strong dollar versus strong crude oil is weird? Both moving the same direction is not the norm.
DXY resistance is $108-$111 area. I've been charting it for a long time and had that area penciled in since the bounce off the recent low started. My base expectation is to see that followed by a selloff to $91-$96 range.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Anybody here think that continued strong dollar versus strong crude oil is weird? Both moving the same direction is not the norm.
There's really two counts on DXY that I've been looking at. And I can make a case for both of them which has made predicting what's next very very hard. I'm leaning toward the above to happen and then a dollar bull market to engage for 2-4 years for a final top off of the 2008 low in the $125 range. If that comes to fruition, the selloff of the dollar will be similar or worse than the one from 1985-1992 or 2002-2008.
On the flip side, the other count that I can absolutely make a case for is a more immediate selloff over the next 1-2 years down to the low $80's. But the recent strength is really starting to strain that count and a break of the $107October 23 high would likely put that one to bed.
Regardless of which way its going now or later, there is no direct inverse relationship between the two. From 1986-1998, the both chopped around in roughly the same direction. From 1998-2000, they both went up rather steep before they diverged. They've actually both been going up since 2021, with both being in the same general pattern of correction and consolidation since early 2022.
You have to remember, that oil is a hard commodity. Though it has immense pressures on both the supply and demand side across the world, it is traded based on its own value. The dollar is also a commodity. And it's been the safest currency for all of our lifetimes. Most of the entire world is playing the Keynesian, MMT, central bank currency devaluation game now. Some much more than others. And most at our direction, as the world bank and IMF are ultimately pawns of the Federal Reserve. Once the world shifted to complete fake money and deficit focused growth instead of productivity focused growth, the relationship between the dollar and commodities has been clouded and can't be attributed any reliable correlation.
Lastly, glad you're back Farmer. My sig was starting to feel lonely.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Great thought experiment, H-A. Seems like oil itself is becoming more of a hard currency--however the manipulators are attempting to legislate or regulate it into irrelevancy, yes? Once they have marginalized the ability of oil to be more relevant than the fiat dollar, it is game over and total control ensues (which is inevitable in my own distopianistic perspective).
TLDR: we are doomed...
TLDR: we are doomed...
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Anybody here think that continued strong dollar versus strong crude oil is weird? Both moving the same direction is not the norm.
Not to mention the swing in gold today alone. Very weird.
When all other sources of energy rely on government debt fueled spending and subsidies to get off the ground, much less sustain.. and when the components that go into building out the infrastructure to bring forth the kind of capacity needed not only to create, but to sustain operations for those sources of energy - become too expensive, you will see the unproductive sources shifted away from and back into the abundant and historically viable sources like oil, gas, and coal. The world got drunk on cheap devalued fiat. Those days are gone. We will still be fighting wars over black gold after most of us are dead. Now what I can't predict is when the world fresh water shortage crisis hits.ravingfans said:
Great thought experiment, H-A. Seems like oil itself is becoming more of a hard currency--however the manipulators are attempting to legislate or regulate it into irrelevancy, yes? Once they have marginalized the ability of oil to be more relevant than the fiat dollar, it is game over and total control ensues (which is inevitable in my own distopianistic perspective).
TLDR: we are doomed...
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Thanks H-A!
BTW, waaay off topic, but is this a decent time to buy a couple of cars? Coincidentally both of ours (Nissan Altima and F150) are quickly inching up on 97k miles and evaluating whether we should sell before they take a significant drop in value > 100k miles or wait a bit longer...
BTW, waaay off topic, but is this a decent time to buy a couple of cars? Coincidentally both of ours (Nissan Altima and F150) are quickly inching up on 97k miles and evaluating whether we should sell before they take a significant drop in value > 100k miles or wait a bit longer...
i think the idea that cars drop in value over 100k is outdated honestly. that should not be a driver for you to replace them
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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H-A, thank you for that reply. I've got some homework to do now. I'm trying to get back in the old swing of things. We continue to have some medical issues but hopefully come May/June some normalcy returns. That's right around the corner! Fresh water crisis,...that one is coming. I put a request in for 4 water meters in July 2020 to a small rural water company and they were granted in August 2023. Theres a lot of backstory to that one and it's been a journey. It could happen anywhere. It you own a property with a water meter(s) dont give them up. Dont buy a property with the promise of a water meter to be installed - installation should be completed before closing the deal. Last, the crazy part,...and just because there is a meter doesn't mean there will be water. Never thought I would write those last 6 sentences in my lifetime. Thanks again!
ravingfans said:
Thanks H-A!
BTW, waaay off topic, but is this a decent time to buy a couple of cars? Coincidentally both of ours (Nissan Altima and F150) are quickly inching up on 97k miles and evaluating whether we should sell before they take a significant drop in value > 100k miles or wait a bit longer...
My F150 is hitting 120k and my wife's Highlander is hitting 190k. We're getting her a new car because we need more room (looking at a Wagoneer) and we usually buy used.
We're not worried about mileage. We don't care about their value. We drive cars for as long as possible so we don't have a car payment. We'd much rather have our cars with no monthly payment than have newer cars and throw a couple grand away.
Bought JNJ under $145 across all long term 401k accounts. Pull up chart and see eternal support there. Also, they raised their dividend for the 62nd consecutive year.
Already back to $147. If you don't have premarket access you're missing big gains.
I've started to find it around CenTex some.
oldarmy1 said:
Already back to $147. If you don't have premarket access you're missing big gains.
I have pre market but you can't set limit orders in pre market correct? I've done this before and the market order traded a lot higher price than what was shown… Is there a way to make sure that doesn't happen because I had gotten screwed and stopped doing it.
I'll be looking for a put entry soon on XHB. I see potential for it to come back to $55 within a year. Yes, that's a 50% haircut. But the home building industry is about to get a lot more expensive with inflation starting to tick back up, and things like lumber, aluminum, copper going up. Not to mention cost of funds with interest rates rising again and the hit on demand in an already declining demand market. And the chart is not too different than HGX that I posted about recently.
Stock Markets - Page 6393 | TexAgs
Looking at the December 24's, January 25's, and March 25's to find the best return on cost. Will post if I enter.
Stock Markets - Page 6393 | TexAgs
Looking at the December 24's, January 25's, and March 25's to find the best return on cost. Will post if I enter.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
[In reply to Houston Ag]
yes, you can have limit orders in pre-market. Mine just got executed at 146 on JNJ.
Thanks for the callout OA
I'm also going to look at selling a put on open
yes, you can have limit orders in pre-market. Mine just got executed at 146 on JNJ.
Thanks for the callout OA
I'm also going to look at selling a put on open
FIFYoldarmy1 said:
Already back to $147. If you don't have premarket access and a large bankroll you're missing big gains.
So the play on JNJ is long term hold as a steady riser? Their history the last 8-10 years isn't all that exciting.
ETA - it also just dropped under 145 again on disappointing earnings.
ETA - it also just dropped under 145 again on disappointing earnings.
Looks like a daily oversold bounce. Weekly is.. weak, with large volume shelf pretty far down and having just crossed the middle Keltner band with room to go down on RSI and MACD not showing oversold yet.flashplayer said:
So the play on JNJ is long term hold as a steady riser? Their history the last 8-10 years isn't all that exciting.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Just bought January 2025 $80 puts. Got $2.20 fill. Might be early on these, but the reward range for the contract value is anywhere from $10 to $30 and there's actually decent interest and liquidity in the options chain.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
going in some 0dte SPY506 for a quick look. be quick
If you followed this you should already be out. Quick 30% was where I got out.
Spoony Love said:
going in some 0dte SPY506 for a quick look. be quick
I'm still holding my 510p expires on Friday. I don't think we hit bottom yet. There are a couple gaps here down to 495.
That's a good look.
I don't want to derail our trading thread, but what is the reason that you are relying on meters instead of drilling?Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
H-A, thank you for that reply. I've got some homework to do now. I'm trying to get back in the old swing of things. We continue to have some medical issues but hopefully come May/June some normalcy returns. That's right around the corner! Fresh water crisis,...that one is coming. I put a request in for 4 water meters in July 2020 to a small rural water company and they were granted in August 2023. Theres a lot of backstory to that one and it's been a journey. It could happen anywhere. It you own a property with a water meter(s) dont give them up. Dont buy a property with the promise of a water meter to be installed - installation should be completed before closing the deal. Last, the crazy part,...and just because there is a meter doesn't mean there will be water. Never thought I would write those last 6 sentences in my lifetime. Thanks again!
Buy orders set.
MARA
1. $12.50
2. $10.00
3. $7.50
IREN
1. $4.00
2. $3.75
3. $3.50
4. $3.00
CLSK
1. Already in
2. $11.25
3. $9.00
4. $7.25
CORZ
1. Already in
2. $2.50
RIOT - last on my list, but will buy at these prices
1. $8.00
2. $6.75
MARA
1. $12.50
2. $10.00
3. $7.50
IREN
1. $4.00
2. $3.75
3. $3.50
4. $3.00
CLSK
1. Already in
2. $11.25
3. $9.00
4. $7.25
CORZ
1. Already in
2. $2.50
RIOT - last on my list, but will buy at these prices
1. $8.00
2. $6.75
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Tumble Weed said:I don't want to derail our trading thread, but what is the reason that you are relying on meters instead of drilling?Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
H-A, thank you for that reply. I've got some homework to do now. I'm trying to get back in the old swing of things. We continue to have some medical issues but hopefully come May/June some normalcy returns. That's right around the corner! Fresh water crisis,...that one is coming. I put a request in for 4 water meters in July 2020 to a small rural water company and they were granted in August 2023. Theres a lot of backstory to that one and it's been a journey. It could happen anywhere. It you own a property with a water meter(s) dont give them up. Dont buy a property with the promise of a water meter to be installed - installation should be completed before closing the deal. Last, the crazy part,...and just because there is a meter doesn't mean there will be water. Never thought I would write those last 6 sentences in my lifetime. Thanks again!
Not speaking for Farmer, but in my area the groundwater is poor quality to non existent in a lot of places.
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To give you all a commercial real estate perspective.....
$14B in Multifamily Sales in First Quarter of 2024
For Comparison sake... We had $140B in Multifamily Sales in First Quarter of 2022
So transactions are not happening.
$14B in Multifamily Sales in First Quarter of 2024
For Comparison sake... We had $140B in Multifamily Sales in First Quarter of 2022
So transactions are not happening.
FishrCoAg said:Tumble Weed said:I don't want to derail our trading thread, but what is the reason that you are relying on meters instead of drilling?Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
H-A, thank you for that reply. I've got some homework to do now. I'm trying to get back in the old swing of things. We continue to have some medical issues but hopefully come May/June some normalcy returns. That's right around the corner! Fresh water crisis,...that one is coming. I put a request in for 4 water meters in July 2020 to a small rural water company and they were granted in August 2023. Theres a lot of backstory to that one and it's been a journey. It could happen anywhere. It you own a property with a water meter(s) dont give them up. Dont buy a property with the promise of a water meter to be installed - installation should be completed before closing the deal. Last, the crazy part,...and just because there is a meter doesn't mean there will be water. Never thought I would write those last 6 sentences in my lifetime. Thanks again!
Not speaking for Farmer, but in my area the groundwater is poor quality to non existent in a lot of places.
Who is a big player in the desalination space? I've heard rumors of conceptual plans to build something in Port A.
Central TX will have major problems with fresh water supply due to explosive growth.
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Someone needs to take Maxine Waters out to the pasture.....
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