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Aglaw97
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In reply to ProgN • 9:06p, 4/11/24
AG
ProgN said:
Very thorough and accurate summation. I haven't confirmed this yet, but I believe they're also branching out into other industries, like tech. These AI centers are going to require a significant amount of power and they want to be a part of that.

Blackrock is their largest shareholder. They have no debt. 69% of their stock is owned by institutions. They're a micro-cap that not only has a PE, they pay a dividend even if it's miniscule. They report earning on 4/30 and if this market doesn't rollover then I may have to raise my entry above my $120 PT.

Very good and thank you for your take.

ETA: There's a good probability that they may declare a split imo.


I did pick up on the tech and AI. I will say that's one of the few very big growth potentials in energy right now whereas a lot of the space has become much more commoditized whether be it products or services. Power is also a big potential growth driver as power at the well site and people wanting power off the grid is going to lead to massive power shortages. Any exposure they have to this space, whether through generators, connecting to the grid, etc will be possible upside.

I also noticed they did raise their dividend (since I did ask that in my first post ). Probably more to appease the institutions and frankly I'd rather a small cap reinvest in the business at this stage.

And I agree large, long only investors are good especially in a thinly traded stock. Many don't like the illiquidity and want a good company before they invest in largely illiquid stock. Only risk is if those institutions divest holdings it will kill the price short term.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:17p, 4/11/24
McInnis 03 said:
I think I need someone Bonfire smart to explain the ramifications here.

While there seems to be a correlation the way they are layered, those scales are not the same and the distance between points for each are not relative. There is no direct correlation between the two.

Here's Gold valued in US$/oz


Here's Gold vs 10YR yield - exact same - because 10Y yield moves hand in hand with the value of the dollar.


Here's both charts on the same % scale. I had to zoom in because you can barely even see the 10Y going back more than 20 years.


And here they are on their own scales as far as trading view has history on them


At best you can make a case that they moved in the same direction until we left the gold standard, then 10 year yields (and the value of the dollar) started moving on its own scale as the currency was devalued. But even then, shouldn't they keep that inverse relationship going forward? Why are there multiple points since 1980 where they move in the same direction?

Because there is no direct correlation. At times, monetary policy will make gold look like its reacting. But gold is, and always has, traded on its own merit with its own supply and demand.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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BaylorSpineGuy
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9:29p, 4/11/24
Did anyone see what happened to Globe Life, GL today? 10 yrs of profits wiped in a single day. Brutal for any bag holders. Curious if this is a black swan type of event that leads to margin calls, etc.?
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ProgN
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In reply to Aglaw97 • 9:32p, 4/11/24
Aglaw97 said:
ProgN said:
Very thorough and accurate summation. I haven't confirmed this yet, but I believe they're also branching out into other industries, like tech. These AI centers are going to require a significant amount of power and they want to be a part of that.

Blackrock is their largest shareholder. They have no debt. 69% of their stock is owned by institutions. They're a micro-cap that not only has a PE, they pay a dividend even if it's miniscule. They report earning on 4/30 and if this market doesn't rollover then I may have to raise my entry above my $120 PT.

Very good and thank you for your take.

ETA: There's a good probability that they may declare a split imo.


I did pick up on the tech and AI. I will say that's one of the few very big growth potentials in energy right now whereas a lot of the space has become much more commoditized whether be it products or services. Power is also a big potential growth driver as power at the well site and people wanting power off the grid is going to lead to massive power shortages. Any exposure they have to this space, whether through generators, connecting to the grid, etc will be possible upside.

I also noticed they did raise their dividend (since I did ask that in my first post ). Probably more to appease the institutions and frankly I'd rather a small cap reinvest in the business at this stage.

And I agree large, long only investors are good especially in a thinly traded stock. Many don't like the illiquidity and want a good company before they invest in largely illiquid stock. Only risk is if those institutions divest holdings it will kill the price short term.
Increasing dividend being a micro tells me that they are extremely profitable. Blackrock and institutions have to announce when the invest or divest. That's why I was sure they'd beat earnings last qtr because Blackrock increased their stake in POWL right before earnings and Blackrock isn't in the money losing business.

As I've said earlier, AI for the big META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, etc. require a boatload of power and I've heard (can't substantiate at this time) that those are some in the tech sector they're working with. If true, I don't have to explain the potential. If it's not true and they're just in the O&G sector, then I don't think I'll get hurt too bad because they're profitable and forward PE makes them undervalued by street standards.

Disclaimer: I'm not trying to sell you or anyone else on them. I'm just sharing my opinion because of the potential that I see in them.







PS. I almost never rec options and I won't now. That said, I know some in here don't have the accounts to swing 100+ shares of POWL. If you have options capabilities, then start monitoring their 5/17 calls. DO NOT GO BALLS DEEP AND ASSUME I OR ANYONE KNOWS THE FUTURE. That said, I'm contemplating leveraging myself and buy some. This will be an earnings play and dangerous. Now is not the time imo because it is volatile, but I will post if/when and what strike price if I do. POWL reports on 4/30, so the 5/17 gives me exposure to benefit, or be crushed by their ER.

Do your own DD and make your own decisions.
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ProgN
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:34p, 4/11/24
McInnis 03 said:
I think I need someone Bonfire smart to explain the ramifications here.

I texted Bonfire and he said he'll try to logon and answer you.
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Bonfire.1996
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:50p, 4/11/24
McInnis 03 said:
I think I need someone Bonfire smart to explain the ramifications here.

This could be a canary in the coal mine, but I don't this is extremely significant. The real 10 year treasury rate is the interest rate less inflation expectations measured over 30 years. Whats not factored into this equation is the international DEMAND for dollar dominated investments, which drives down price and rate.

The above chart is more about gold than Treasuries. I sold an ounce of gold in 2011 for $1700. Gold being $2000 an ounce a few months ago wasn't logical given inflation in 2021 and 2022.

I would wager if you looked back at our last major inflationary period in the 80s, the same thing happened. Then they reset the axis to watch these move in concert with each other while inflation remained tepid.

Overall this isn't concerning given our other issues.

Note: what this chart doesn't have is the DEFLATIONARY pressure that comes when inflation causes a recession. That's coming, and that will bring this chart back a little.
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Aglaw97
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In reply to ProgN • 9:51p, 4/11/24
AG
This isn't scientific but my gut syncs up with your $120 entry point. For long term holders it's probably not worth trying to time too much at current values. Management seems bullish on the ability to sustain at current levels. Whether they get rewarded for that, hard to tell. Market is fickle about what have you done for me lately. But just maintaining on Q1 would minimize downside and there is potential for upside if expanding into some of these other areas. And those are some of the few areas where investors will reward O&G for the story before actual results. I don't know their ability to capitalize on those based on capabilities and capacity. And don't know how much of the backlog could suffer if LNG continues to have near term headwinds. But it's not something right now that I'd be adverse to taking a position and see what the next 3-4 quarters brings.

As you noted, people have to make their own decisions since some of my thoughts are educated speculation.
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Bonfire.1996
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In reply to Bonfire.1996 • 7:33a, 4/12/24
Follow up: when you look at our treasury rates, gold, oil, silver, inflation, it's easy to think about a looming crisis. What people, and so called experts, fail to include in that analysis is we must measure all that against other currencies, markets, and economies.

Yes our shlt stinks, real bad. But we are the sweetest turd in the punch bowl. This will allow us to kick the can down the road a long damn time.

Summation: don't waste time awaiting a currency crisis - that's what a gold divergence is - because there will be other currency crises first.

For example: Japan might be having the start of one now.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Bonfire.1996 • 7:46a, 4/12/24
Bonfire.1996 said:
Follow up: when you look at our treasury rates, gold, oil, silver, inflation, it's easy to think about a looming crisis. What people, and so called experts, fail to include in that analysis is we must measure all that against other currencies, markets, and economies.

Yes our shlt stinks, real bad. But we are the sweetest turd in the punch bowl. This will allow us to kick the can down the road a long damn time.

Summation: don't waste time awaiting a currency crisis - that's what a gold divergence is - because there will be other currency crises first.

For example: Japan might be having the start of one now.


Exactly
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Bonfire.1996 • 7:48a, 4/12/24
AG
Thanks for the detail.
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texagbeliever
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7:49a, 4/12/24
JPM taking a big dip after earnings call this morning. It beat on everything but guidance was cautious with inflation, QE, wars and other unrest being potential headwinds.

While JPM was far out performing the other guys, I don't see how they aren't dragged down with this news as well.
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MRB10
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In reply to Bonfire.1996 • 7:56a, 4/12/24
AG
https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/dollar-milkshake-theory/
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bigtoneag
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 7:57a, 4/12/24
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Did anyone see what happened to Globe Life, GL today? 10 yrs of profits wiped in a single day. Brutal for any bag holders. Curious if this is a black swan type of event that leads to margin calls, etc.?
I read the short report. It was very damning. They refuted it of course.
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ravingfans
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In reply to FishrCoAg • 8:14a, 4/12/24
AG
FishrCoAg said:
Brewmaster said:
Spoony Love said:
Sounds like the FED needs to let go and let God.

Good grief folks: start growing your own food or know someone who does.

If you can get your hands on about 6-7 acres, you can grow just about anything you would eat. No need for a heard, just raise a steer at a time. Raise meat chickens and layers. Build garden and put food away. Put some fruit trees in the ground and wait (but prune to increase yield). Let a pig tear up ground for the gardens then process. All it costs is sweat and a few bucks.
Amen brother. Is it wrong of me to look at north of Bryan and south of Hearne area as prime real estate for something like this? it is amazing how cheap it is up there, I know it's a dump, but wow. All of central TX will eventually get caught up (real estate prices).

Red Pear is actually helping us now, looking at a property not far from downtown Bryan. Definitely not a homestead type of property, but it's a big lot, could do plenty there.


As a country veterinarian I'm still trying to figure out the raise a steer at a time plan!


Sounds like two options:

1. Raise the steer, and every time you get hungry do surgery to extract some meat or

2. Wait to eat every 2-5 years depending on how hangry you get.

Kinda reminds me of what the Treasury is doing with the FED in a way...
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Ragoo
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 8:23a, 4/12/24
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Ragoo said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Ragoo said:
SPX is on the brink. Break here and could see 5100 quickly.
Whoops...
whoops what? The rebound isn't a bull case.
It broke and looked to be heading to 5100....and then very much did not.
ttt
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FishrCoAg
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In reply to ravingfans • 8:26a, 4/12/24
AG
ravingfans said:
FishrCoAg said:
Brewmaster said:
Spoony Love said:
Sounds like the FED needs to let go and let God.

Good grief folks: start growing your own food or know someone who does.

If you can get your hands on about 6-7 acres, you can grow just about anything you would eat. No need for a heard, just raise a steer at a time. Raise meat chickens and layers. Build garden and put food away. Put some fruit trees in the ground and wait (but prune to increase yield). Let a pig tear up ground for the gardens then process. All it costs is sweat and a few bucks.
Amen brother. Is it wrong of me to look at north of Bryan and south of Hearne area as prime real estate for something like this? it is amazing how cheap it is up there, I know it's a dump, but wow. All of central TX will eventually get caught up (real estate prices).

Red Pear is actually helping us now, looking at a property not far from downtown Bryan. Definitely not a homestead type of property, but it's a big lot, could do plenty there.


As a country veterinarian I'm still trying to figure out the raise a steer at a time plan!


Sounds like two options:

1. Raise the steer, and every time you get hungry do surgery to extract some meat or

2. Wait to eat every 2-5 years depending on how hangry you get.

Kinda reminds me of what the Treasury is doing with the FED in a way...


He has to come from somewhere. $$$
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to bigtoneag • 8:43a, 4/12/24
It made me laugh because a former poster on this thread (believe he was run off because people leaked his insider reports….austinAg?…..used to post a bunch of dots in his comments….always told great stories…) once joked that any time a company buys naming rights to a sports arena, it's generally bad news for the company.

Of course, Globe Life is where the Rangers play. SMH. Classic.
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:07a, 4/12/24
AMD - watching $160 area.

The Business Times article April 12, 2024: "China tells telecom firms to phase out foreign chips in blow to Intel, AMD." - Also reported on Bloomberg live television. "China was Intel's largest market last year and was responsible for more than 27 per cent of Intel's total revenue."
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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EnronAg
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9:11a, 4/12/24
AG
thoughts from the technical gurus on SHEL? I have a decent amount of shares and that thing has just been ripping as of late...RSI near 90...buy/sell/hold?
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to EnronAg • 9:18a, 4/12/24
EnronAg said:
thoughts from the technical gurus on SHEL? I have a decent amount of shares and that thing has just been ripping as of late...RSI near 90...buy/sell/hold?
Stop is $60 but can be as high as $64. We're now at the pre-Covid high.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Ragoo • 9:35a, 4/12/24
AG
Ragoo said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Ragoo said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Ragoo said:
SPX is on the brink. Break here and could see 5100 quickly.
Whoops...
whoops what? The rebound isn't a bull case.
It broke and looked to be heading to 5100....and then very much did not.
ttt
What? You said quickly, and you said it yesterday.
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FishrCoAg
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9:38a, 4/12/24
AG
Buy/write on POWL. Stock at 128.11, sold May 140c for 8.11. I'll either own it for a net of 120 or take my 16.67% for a month and be happy
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AceAggie05
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9:47a, 4/12/24
AG
Cmon SLV! Break through $27!!!! Got a $28 call that is killing it right now!
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:49a, 4/12/24
Don't go look at SPX from end of March 2000 through mid April. Definitely don't compare it to today.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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Bonfire.1996
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In reply to MRB10 • 9:55a, 4/12/24
Pepper Brooks said:
https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/dollar-milkshake-theory/
Fantastic
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Spoony Love
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9:56a, 4/12/24
AG
Ashi, I feel like these XLF puts are about to break. Nice call.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Spoony Love • 10:00a, 4/12/24
Spoony Love said:
Ashi, I feel like these XLF puts are about to break. Nice call.
They're in a support zone. If they can bust through, ya, they can start to move. But I never anticipated THIS to be the move. That's why they are long dated for after the election. Will watch closely.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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EnronAg
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 10:06a, 4/12/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
Don't go look at SPX from end of March 2000 through mid April. Definitely don't compare it to today.
Wow, VIX spiking...you could be nailing this...thought we had one more ramp up...but I'm leaning more your direction now...
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to EnronAg • 10:21a, 4/12/24
EnronAg said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
Don't go look at SPX from end of March 2000 through mid April. Definitely don't compare it to today.
Wow, VIX spiking...you could be nailing this...thought we had one more ramp up...but I'm leaning more your direction now...
Things are very close to getting dicey. But support has not broken yet. Like I said yesterday, 5100 breaking could cause a cascade down with the mix of money manager profit taking and long option covering.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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Heineken-Ashi
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10:24a, 4/12/24
Today's low is now a stop on any SPY longs. 5090 range if that breaks.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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AceAggie05
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In reply to AceAggie05 • 10:25a, 4/12/24
AG
AceAggie05 said:
Cmon SLV! Break through $27!!!! Got a $28 call that is killing it right now!
Nothing like losing 5% in 20 mins.....
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AceAggie05
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10:32a, 4/12/24
AG
Alright. Someone smarter than me talk me off this ledge. Can SLV turn it around? I feel like it can. It's walked it's way up to $27 steadily, only to have a steep selloff. In my mind that means it can turn back around once the panic settles, right?
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Talon2DSO
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In reply to AceAggie05 • 10:36a, 4/12/24
AG
AceAggie05 said:
AceAggie05 said:
Cmon SLV! Break through $27!!!! Got a $28 call that is killing it right now!
Nothing like losing 5% in 20 mins.....


I got stopped out.
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Spoony Love
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In reply to AceAggie05 • 10:40a, 4/12/24
AG
I think the best you can hope for on a short term basis is a 50% retrace of this drop once it officially stops.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to AceAggie05 • 10:42a, 4/12/24
AceAggie05 said:
Alright. Someone smarter than me talk me off this ledge. Can SLV turn it around? I feel like it can. It's walked it's way up to $27 steadily, only to have a steep selloff. In my mind that means it can turn back around once the panic settles, right?
You're in the weeds a little. Zoom out.

I would gladly welcome a good size retracement here.

Support is ultimately $24 right now.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX

“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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