Glad I loaded up on NVDA during the dip.
I mean it's 4 shares, but still.
I mean it's 4 shares, but still.
Stock Markets
24,950,134 Views |
233715 Replies |
Last: 16 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
Yes I did. Nothing makes sense right now, but felt it was best to hold for now.
flashplayer said:agdaddy04 said:
Do you guys think it's a good idea to ponder unloading NVDA? I certainly don't want to ride it down.
Hopefully you are still holding it or at least waited until today to get that extra 6% since you asked this.
I took profits today. Riding this and MSTR has been a whirlwind. If it goes up more, that's great, I still got triple my investment out of it.
BlueTaze said:
Alerted on BA at some strong support, could be a good swing trade with calls. Or if the level breaks down, go with puts.
In the AMZN June $170 Puts....let's see if we get a pullback
ProgN said:EnronAg said:
mega caps seem to be holding it together...they are ripping while RSP is negative...Q's outperforming...many of mag7 seem to be hitting all time highs or very close...so will be interesting to see what those do on a greater market pullback...they seem to be the safe haven and carrying this flailing market, in my opinion...
Long funds and MM are using the Mag 7 to defend a negative cross of RSI on SPX because they are heavily weighted. Hard cross below 50 could trigger sell programs
Money managers will be emptying the shelves below 5100. Locking in gains above the yearly expectation.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Ugh. Four people in our department were laid off today. Our team wasn't impacted, but still not a great feeling.
Bit nervous to be honest.
Bit nervous to be honest.
Apple chose violence today
GDX rolling along. SLV finally surging a bit.
Tell me again CRE is going to be anything but a **** show this year?
Oh, no.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 11, 2024
The largest office building in St. Louis has sold for $3.5 million, per WSJ.
In 2006, it sold for $205 million. pic.twitter.com/Io87rdptw8
Tell me again CRE is going to be anything but a **** show this year?
Dear Lord, is that real?!?!? how is that even possible???
someone assumed a lot of debt
And here's looking up Uranus EFT.nortex97 said:
GDX rolling along. SLV finally surging a bit.
Appreciate the insight HA.
LOL.......username checks out.EnronAg said:
Dear Lord, is that real?!?!? how is that even possible???
that bear trap was so telegraphed 
but this bull trap (rip to new ATH) will be fun to watch...
but this bull trap (rip to new ATH) will be fun to watch... Holy smokes, it sold for $2.50/SF. That is totally unheard of.nortex97 said:
GDX rolling along. SLV finally surging a bit.Oh, no.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 11, 2024
The largest office building in St. Louis has sold for $3.5 million, per WSJ.
In 2006, it sold for $205 million. pic.twitter.com/Io87rdptw8
Tell me again CRE is going to be anything but a **** show this year?
The buyer of that building (at that cost) will ultimately look like a genius once they redevelop it to multifamily.
It was sold for $4.5 million two years ago.
Here's to hoping SNOW is finally through teasing us.
A good friend of mine was a district manager for Tennessee at his company and he was told to layoff 25% of his salesforce in February. He's a good man with a good heart. It killed him and he did as instructed but he felt horrible for doing so. He was laid off last Friday and depressed.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Ugh. Four people in our department were laid off today. Our team wasn't impacted, but still not a great feeling.
Bit nervous to be honest.
I told him that when he has to rollover his 401K into a self-directed IRA, that I'd be willing to direct it and will grow it for him. I will manage it for him in exchange that he learns what/how I do it.
Not recommending you to follow, but I'm playing a Friday lotto. Buying the SPY 522c at .6 that expire tomorrow.
ETA. bought at .56. If bank earnings PM tomorrow are good, then they can pop, plus it looks like the market will run into the close.
If anyone follows, only play with money you won't miss because if I'm wrong, then they expire worthless.
ETA. bought at .56. If bank earnings PM tomorrow are good, then they can pop, plus it looks like the market will run into the close.
If anyone follows, only play with money you won't miss because if I'm wrong, then they expire worthless.
I expect them to lock in yearly gains early as well and not gamble losing good returns and protecting their year end bonuses.Heineken-Ashi said:ProgN said:EnronAg said:
mega caps seem to be holding it together...they are ripping while RSP is negative...Q's outperforming...many of mag7 seem to be hitting all time highs or very close...so will be interesting to see what those do on a greater market pullback...they seem to be the safe haven and carrying this flailing market, in my opinion...
Long funds and MM are using the Mag 7 to defend a negative cross of RSI on SPX because they are heavily weighted. Hard cross below 50 could trigger sell programs
Money managers will be emptying the shelves below 5100. Locking in gains above the yearly expectation.
Funny you say that because I was looking into this today just in case I find myself in that situation.ProgN said:A good friend of mine was a district manager for Tennessee at his company and he was told to layoff 25% of his salesforce in February. He's a good man with a good heart. It killed him and he did as instructed but he felt horrible for doing so. He was laid off last Friday and depressed.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Ugh. Four people in our department were laid off today. Our team wasn't impacted, but still not a great feeling.
Bit nervous to be honest.
I told him that when he has to rollover his 401K into a self-directed IRA, that I'd be willing to direct it and will grow it for him. I will manage it for him in exchange that he learns what/how I do it.
What are the benefits of rolling it over to an IRA, rather than leaving it with your previous employer? Just the flexibility? Any tax implications for doing so?
Benefits: An IRA offers many more investment options, usually at lower expense ratios. More control on timing of purchases and sales. You can usually get a cash rollover bonus from most brokerage firms.Brian Earl Spilner said:Funny you say that because I was looking into this today just in case I find myself in that situation.ProgN said:A good friend of mine was a district manager for Tennessee at his company and he was told to layoff 25% of his salesforce in February. He's a good man with a good heart. It killed him and he did as instructed but he felt horrible for doing so. He was laid off last Friday and depressed.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Ugh. Four people in our department were laid off today. Our team wasn't impacted, but still not a great feeling.
Bit nervous to be honest.
I told him that when he has to rollover his 401K into a self-directed IRA, that I'd be willing to direct it and will grow it for him. I will manage it for him in exchange that he learns what/how I do it.
What are the benefits of rolling it over to an IRA, rather than leaving it with your previous employer? Just the flexibility? Any tax implications for doing so?
Drawbacks: The main advantage to a 401(k) is the ability to get an in-service loan for certain uses (home purchase, kids college, etc.), but that usually goes away when you are no longer employed there (as they typically mandate payroll deducted repayments). Since few people advise getting these loans in the first place (you're using retirement funds for a non-retirement purpose), it's not a big item to give up. The only other big disadvantage of an IRA is that you might start believing you're an investment guru and start day-trading or investing in high-risk instruments before you're prepared for it, and end up ruining your account.
[edit]No tax consequences if you do it right - - have the brokerage firm handle the IRA rollover process completely. If you take receipt of it, you run the risk of the taxman considering it all an early taxable distribution - DO NOT TOUCH IT.
Thanks for the info.
Pay close attention to my edit on tax implications!Brian Earl Spilner said:
Thanks for the info.
Just flexibility. I can grow it much better for him than mutual funds and it's tax deferred. Rolling it over doesn't incur any tax liability, unless he were to pull some out.Brian Earl Spilner said:Funny you say that because I was looking into this today just in case I find myself in that situation.ProgN said:A good friend of mine was a district manager for Tennessee at his company and he was told to layoff 25% of his salesforce in February. He's a good man with a good heart. It killed him and he did as instructed but he felt horrible for doing so. He was laid off last Friday and depressed.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Ugh. Four people in our department were laid off today. Our team wasn't impacted, but still not a great feeling.
Bit nervous to be honest.
I told him that when he has to rollover his 401K into a self-directed IRA, that I'd be willing to direct it and will grow it for him. I will manage it for him in exchange that he learns what/how I do it.
What are the benefits of rolling it over to an IRA, rather than leaving it with your previous employer? Just the flexibility? Any tax implications for doing so?
POWL closing below $130 finally
Spaceship said:Holy smokes, it sold for $2.50/SF. That is totally unheard of.nortex97 said:
GDX rolling along. SLV finally surging a bit.Oh, no.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 11, 2024
The largest office building in St. Louis has sold for $3.5 million, per WSJ.
In 2006, it sold for $205 million. pic.twitter.com/Io87rdptw8
Tell me again CRE is going to be anything but a **** show this year?
The buyer of that building (at that cost) will ultimately look like a genius once they redevelop it to multifamily.
He will pay more than the cost of the building to maintain it, taxes, and insurance.
I've seen multiple buildings in greenspoint get bought for cheap only to be foreclosed on. I'd only buy at dirt price minus demolition.
Converting that to condos is incredibly expensive and not a guarantee. Tear it down and build something people want.
cgh1999 said:Spaceship said:Holy smokes, it sold for $2.50/SF. That is totally unheard of.nortex97 said:
GDX rolling along. SLV finally surging a bit.Oh, no.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 11, 2024
The largest office building in St. Louis has sold for $3.5 million, per WSJ.
In 2006, it sold for $205 million. pic.twitter.com/Io87rdptw8
Tell me again CRE is going to be anything but a **** show this year?
The buyer of that building (at that cost) will ultimately look like a genius once they redevelop it to multifamily.
He will pay more than the cost of the building to maintain it, taxes, and insurance.
I've seen multiple buildings in greenspoint get bought for cheap only to be foreclosed on. I'd only buy at dirt price minus demolition.
Converting that to condos is incredibly expensive and not a guarantee. Tear it down and build something people want.
Every investor has to pay taxes, maintenance, and insurance - that's not unique.
Greenpoint is not a downtown market. Those operate differently.
Housing demand will always remain steadier than office demand. That's why there are residential conversions occurring with increased frequency right now.
https://fox2now.com/news/missouri/wsj-calls-downtown-st-louis-real-estate-a-nightmare-critics-respond/
I wouldn't touch downtown RE with a 10 ft pole.
I wouldn't touch downtown RE with a 10 ft pole.
So….can anyone explain to me without numbers 1-5 and letters A-C and W-Z why the gold miners are lagging the gold rally so badly? Looks like they wanna join now but would've guessed they would not have lagged so badly. SSRM is one in particular I watch. It's up almost 10% in a week.
I appreciate all the EW stuff and quite enjoy drawing the waves and reviewing, but looking for a more clear understanding behind the gold rally and why miners have just now decided to follow along.
TIA. Oh and sic'em. Our coach trolled the entire state of Kentucky in the last 3 weeks. I'm happy.
I appreciate all the EW stuff and quite enjoy drawing the waves and reviewing, but looking for a more clear understanding behind the gold rally and why miners have just now decided to follow along.
TIA. Oh and sic'em. Our coach trolled the entire state of Kentucky in the last 3 weeks. I'm happy.
Most corrections tend to be fairly standard. The have 3 legs with the third mimicking the size and trajectory of the first. Other types of corrections are triangles (5 points ABCDE) with very clear trend lines along the top and bottom converging on each other. You can also have what's called flats, where it happens in 3 moves but makes a new high in the process and the 3rd leg still finishing at the same level as the first.
WXY is a "double three". Meaning it's 3 waves, but each wave is made up of its own type of the above corrections. So you could have a standard 3 move zigzag, followed by an upward retracing flat, and finishing with a triangle. WXYXZ is very rare but is actually a "triple three", meaning after the first 3 complicated moves, you can still have yet another upward retrace and a final triangle, flat, or standard correction.
I honestly wouldn't worry about it. These moves are rare and you usually can't know they happened until they are done and the market has broken out. But the clues start to pop up when you see enough moves to have a completed correction, the time has been long enough to have given an opportunity it's for consolidation and build up, and yet it keeps dropping back into the correction range instead of breaking out. A lot of Darvas boxes are these double or triple threes.
Miners always lag. These companies are not neccesarily the best run companies and they do a lot of financing moves to keep themselves afloat when metals aren't going up. It takes them a while to realize the increased spot price and turn it into profits. But once they break out, they catch up fast.
WXY is a "double three". Meaning it's 3 waves, but each wave is made up of its own type of the above corrections. So you could have a standard 3 move zigzag, followed by an upward retracing flat, and finishing with a triangle. WXYXZ is very rare but is actually a "triple three", meaning after the first 3 complicated moves, you can still have yet another upward retrace and a final triangle, flat, or standard correction.
I honestly wouldn't worry about it. These moves are rare and you usually can't know they happened until they are done and the market has broken out. But the clues start to pop up when you see enough moves to have a completed correction, the time has been long enough to have given an opportunity it's for consolidation and build up, and yet it keeps dropping back into the correction range instead of breaking out. A lot of Darvas boxes are these double or triple threes.
Miners always lag. These companies are not neccesarily the best run companies and they do a lot of financing moves to keep themselves afloat when metals aren't going up. It takes them a while to realize the increased spot price and turn it into profits. But once they break out, they catch up fast.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Hey bear doc, with a baby future AgBaylorSpineGuy said:
So….can anyone explain to me without numbers 1-5 and letters A-C and W-Z why the gold miners are lagging the gold rally so badly? Looks like they wanna join now but would've guessed they would not have lagged so badly. SSRM is one in particular I watch. It's up almost 10% in a week.
I appreciate all the EW stuff and quite enjoy drawing the waves and reviewing, but looking for a more clear understanding behind the gold rally and why miners have just now decided to follow along.
TIA. Oh and sic'em. Our coach trolled the entire state of Kentucky in the last 3 weeks. I'm happy.
, good to see you pop in. I don't trade the miners but some articles I've read might explain the divergence. Several governments are, and have been buying physical gold, that explains the dramatic price increase of the commodity. If accurate, countries dgas about the miners or stocks. My question is what do they know that we don't?
I wanted to revert back to you on POWL. Been busy so hadn't been able to carve out time to look into them, and I'll caveat this by saying I didn't do an extensive dive into them so I'm not at a point where I can give my opinions a high level of confidence. I also tend to invest longer term and thus invest in management as much as the Company and it's financials and market. You are much more attuned to shorter-term swings in stocks and entry and exit points. I tend to ride stocks longer term. So here are some observations and feel free to push back or expand if you have better knowledge given your history of following them.
1. Expansion and capex seems to have been funded with operating cash flow and not assuming debt, which I always believe reflects positively on a management team as they don't over-extend and live within their means. It will allow them to weather shorter-term uncertainties.
2. Gross margins - the 1st quarter earnings call alleviated some of my concerns whether their recently improved margins were sustainable. But they will need to prove that out in ensuing quarters. Everyone is in a beat and raise, coupled with a prove it, mode.
3. Stock liquidity - they have a pretty small float and daily trading volumes are low. Not a bad thing IMO, just could result in choppiness based on any misses or beats.
4. Haven't had a chance to dig into how much this administration's attacks on LNG will affect POWL's prospects. Personally I think Biden's bark will be worse than his bite when it comes to saber rattling on LNG. But it could have some drag in the shorter-term and those LNG projects can be like turning the Titanic, you don't just stop and start at a moments notice.
5. Increasing EBITDA - they seem to be pretty "sold out" and thus I do question how much more their revenues can grow. Also not sure if they have potential for further cost efficiencies.
All of this to say that the recent jump in stock price after Q1 seems warranted. There may have been a little bit of post call exuberance that caused the run up to $180 before some profit started being taken, thus quickly reducing the price largely because of the thin liquidity. My guess is they've settled about as low as they will go until Q2 results, at which point it could pop again. The only question I have is whether they are priced for perfection at this point and thus will it require another significant beat for a catalyst upwards (i.e. #5 above and whether they have slack in the system to grow revenue without additional costs and capex)? And will any miss cause a re-trade well below $100? Alternatively there may be some possible upside if they can demonstrate sustainable margins and EBITDA for a couple of more quarters even if they don't continue to beat and raise.
I'm definitely going to continue to follow and may possibly add a small position if it drops into the low $120's.
1. Expansion and capex seems to have been funded with operating cash flow and not assuming debt, which I always believe reflects positively on a management team as they don't over-extend and live within their means. It will allow them to weather shorter-term uncertainties.
2. Gross margins - the 1st quarter earnings call alleviated some of my concerns whether their recently improved margins were sustainable. But they will need to prove that out in ensuing quarters. Everyone is in a beat and raise, coupled with a prove it, mode.
3. Stock liquidity - they have a pretty small float and daily trading volumes are low. Not a bad thing IMO, just could result in choppiness based on any misses or beats.
4. Haven't had a chance to dig into how much this administration's attacks on LNG will affect POWL's prospects. Personally I think Biden's bark will be worse than his bite when it comes to saber rattling on LNG. But it could have some drag in the shorter-term and those LNG projects can be like turning the Titanic, you don't just stop and start at a moments notice.
5. Increasing EBITDA - they seem to be pretty "sold out" and thus I do question how much more their revenues can grow. Also not sure if they have potential for further cost efficiencies.
All of this to say that the recent jump in stock price after Q1 seems warranted. There may have been a little bit of post call exuberance that caused the run up to $180 before some profit started being taken, thus quickly reducing the price largely because of the thin liquidity. My guess is they've settled about as low as they will go until Q2 results, at which point it could pop again. The only question I have is whether they are priced for perfection at this point and thus will it require another significant beat for a catalyst upwards (i.e. #5 above and whether they have slack in the system to grow revenue without additional costs and capex)? And will any miss cause a re-trade well below $100? Alternatively there may be some possible upside if they can demonstrate sustainable margins and EBITDA for a couple of more quarters even if they don't continue to beat and raise.
I'm definitely going to continue to follow and may possibly add a small position if it drops into the low $120's.
Very thorough and accurate summation. I haven't confirmed this yet, but I believe they're also branching out into other industries, like tech. These AI centers are going to require a significant amount of power and they want to be a part of that.
Blackrock is their largest shareholder. They have no debt. 69% of their stock is owned by institutions. They're a micro-cap that not only has a PE, they pay a dividend even if it's miniscule. They report earning on 4/30 and if this market doesn't rollover then I may have to raise my entry above my $120 PT.
Very good and thank you for your take.
ETA: There's a good probability that they may declare a split imo.
Blackrock is their largest shareholder. They have no debt. 69% of their stock is owned by institutions. They're a micro-cap that not only has a PE, they pay a dividend even if it's miniscule. They report earning on 4/30 and if this market doesn't rollover then I may have to raise my entry above my $120 PT.
Very good and thank you for your take.
ETA: There's a good probability that they may declare a split imo.
I think I need someone Bonfire smart to explain the ramifications here.
this is not normal pic.twitter.com/mv0uLsDs7R
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 12, 2024
AFLAC earnings May 1. If price is above $75, I'll probably be buying a good chunk of puts looking for $69 range. And I've got a target of low to mid $50's by election. But the next push down would be expected to be bought back for a couple months before the next drop. Watching closely.
Those of you wondering how to profit from downside. Pull up the 4hr chart and look at action since end of January. Corrections almost never happen in a single down day. It chopped back up to previous high. I'm looking for a 1.618% move of the last move down from the March high. If it happens BEFORE earnings, then I am forming a share position and maybe calls going into earnings.
Those of you wondering how to profit from downside. Pull up the 4hr chart and look at action since end of January. Corrections almost never happen in a single down day. It chopped back up to previous high. I'm looking for a 1.618% move of the last move down from the March high. If it happens BEFORE earnings, then I am forming a share position and maybe calls going into earnings.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Featured Stories
See All
51:38
58m ago
1.6k
Learned, Loved, Loathed: Auburn 43, Texas A&M 41 (4OT)
by Olin Buchanan
12 Key Statistics: Auburn 43, Texas A&M 41 (4OT)
by Luke Evangelist
10:42
8m ago
142
TexAgs' TXHSFB Recap: Reviewing our coverage from the area round
by TexAgs Recruiting