Yeah I was just about to edit my post and put an option 3 for an agonal gasp from the dying bull run.
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Last: 33 min ago by El_duderino
I don't know, I think the market is just volatile right now. Coiled up and ready to explode. To the downside is my opinion. SPY has remained relatively unchanged in the big picture this week. CPI is going to come in hot tomorrow but we all know it's a lie. I think this ending is river boat gamblers trying to be smart and load up for an initial move tomorrow morning. I should put my money where my mouth is and grab a few VIX calls.
Sold 50% of my SPY calls for a nice profit. The rest are my remaining hedge in case we jump tomorrow. A lot of pressure seems to be down, and we've flipped from buyers buying every dip and winning to a full brawl between buyers and sellers. I've heard the same thing Prog posted about smart money exiting over the past month. So I'm very cautious here.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
And missed $300 of upside on the 5 calls I sold. What an end of day move.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Well played...Heineken-Ashi said:
Bought SPY April 16 $524 calls. If this goes up, I've got a target by April expiration of $530. I am not confident we are for sure going up, but this is a hedge against my already bearish options and an attempt to play the next two days of economic catalysts.
WHD - Update target range between October 2024 and Nov 2025 - $100-$125. Buy under $57 trendline resistance. Hoping for a retrace back into the $40's soon if we get a crude oil retracement. Stop $40 and no lower than $37.50, though if it breaks lower than $40 the bullish setup will start looking rough. Earnings May 1. Once above $64, off to the races.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
TSN update - Expecting a drop into May earnings. Would like to see $50 and a nice reverse H&S look. Updated target range $67-$80. If it holds above $55, it could take off quicker, so if you didn't get a position when I first added it to the 2024 list, pay close attention over the coming month between $50 and $56 range.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
CXM update - $10.80 is stop. I'm really hoping for liftoff soon. Target range $19-$30
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Do you guys think it's a good idea to ponder unloading NVDA? I certainly don't want to ride it down.
Heineken , NBR going the opposite way even though not quite close to your stop yet. What are you seeing now after a couple days into the week?
Just know that the second you do, it'll shoot back up.
Just happened to me with TSLA.
Just happened to me with TSLA.
Happened with me and Googl most recently.
I wouldn't sell it. I wouldn't be surprised if they declare a 3:1 to 5:1 split on their next ER.agdaddy04 said:
Do you guys think it's a good idea to ponder unloading NVDA? I certainly don't want to ride it down.
I'm holding AMD and NVIDIA through earnings. My logic is just look at what happened for Micron after their earnings amidst the steady tank everything else has been on. The chip stocks still have fuel to burn if they don't start with the letters intel.
S&P definitely has a H&S look over the past couple weeks. and these past few days have been a stick save (for now).
I think we need to at least retest 5000 soon.
I think we need to at least retest 5000 soon.
To me it almost feels like the bears are toying with it. Dropping it hard and letting up to see the response. And it's bounced everytime. First time weeks we have had numerous large drops like this.
bmoochie said:
To me it almost feels like the bears are toying with it. Dropping it hard and letting up to see the response. And it's bounced everytime. First time weeks we have had numerous large drops like this.
I don't know if toying with it is the right word. But the trend lately has absolutely been to send it down to support points, almost forcing night monkeys to have no other option but to drive it back up. Today was a good buck of the trend, at least on a micro level.
I read earlier that in 2019, something like 18% of the SPX gains came in the cash session. All the rest came in overnight session. That's not a bull market. That's a trap market.
MM's have delta hedges on every side. They aren't going to lose. But when the market is in the chop and threatening exhaustion and you see routine daily patterns leading to routine overnight actions, you can start to feel the pressure of outside forces. Every time it tries to run one way or the other it gets pushback.
Or maybe this is just organic sentiment. All I know is that I don't be caught on the wrong side of whatever happens right now. Something just doesn't feel right.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
We have trendline connecting October 2020 low to January 2024 low for support. As of now, $77 is what can't break. And we need through $202 to break any short term downside setup. $91-$92 range is immediate resistance. If the gap at $111 closes, it will do so with price having broken the upper trendline of the triangle consolidation pattern.agdaddy04 said:
Heineken , NBR going the opposite way even though not quite close to your stop yet. What are you seeing now after a couple days into the week?
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
NVDA/GOLD
This is NVDA if it was priced in Gold. Keep in mind that both are priced in USD, so the value of the dollar is meaningless in this comparison.
What do you think comes next?
This is NVDA if it was priced in Gold. Keep in mind that both are priced in USD, so the value of the dollar is meaningless in this comparison.
What do you think comes next?
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
No way in hell JPow can cut in June or even this year with these numbers. Idc how he tries to spin it.
inflation numbers and cpi stronger than "expected"
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ProgN said:
No way in hell JPow can cut in June or even this year with these numbers. Idc how he tries to spin it.
surprised they didn't fudge the numbers another 0.1 since they've been lying about the real numbers for over a YEAR...
Glad I had some SPY puts loaded.
Looks like gamblers are going to lose this morning. I should have taken my own advice like I said and loaded vix calls
My May SLV 28 calls are up 20 percent in only 2 days. Holding.confucius_ag said:
Glad I had some SPY puts loaded.
All of the market is approaching a bear cliff, imho.
Not sure what your correlation is here between NVDA and gold? NVDA seems exceptionally ripe for a correction after helping to drive the market north this CY quite disproportionately. I am reminded of an old phrase, 'irrational exuberance.' I admit to buying a little into the AI mania with an ETF in my main self-directed IRA but I am selling that crap asap right now.Heineken-Ashi said:
NVDA/GOLD
This is NVDA if it was priced in Gold. Keep in mind that both are priced in USD, so the value of the dollar is meaningless in this comparison.
What do you think comes next?
Just a hunch, but SPY516 would be the 50% retrace for this initial move. I think that comes early, then it goes really red for the day.
The way things have been probably go green.
Watch bonds, If the 10Y yield gets above 4.5% it could accelerate upward.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Seems like our metals are rallying hard after morning drop. Powl and snow still hunting for $120 and $150.
Any Fidelity Brokerage users
know if it's possible to buy 4 month Treasury Bills directly from the site?
know if it's possible to buy 4 month Treasury Bills directly from the site?
please explain what you think comes next for NVDIA
could it not breakout from the channel and move to ATH?
I mean theoretically based on charting, not on what is likely.
could it not breakout from the channel and move to ATH?
I mean theoretically based on charting, not on what is likely.
The chart is a relationship. NVDA valued in Gold. Gold has just started to break out in a bull market and NVDA has seen the bulk of its big move and is in the chop around phase which could melt higher, but could also retrace pretty hard. I think any of these things can happen for the rest of the year..LMCane said:
please explain what you think comes next for NVDIA
could it not breakout from the channel and move to ATH?
I mean theoretically based on charting, not on what is likely.
A. NVDA drops while Gold rises.
B. They both drop with NVDA dropping harder.
C. They both rise with Gold rallying much harder.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Fed is going to have to sink some banks and crank up the interest rate another 25-50 bp. The optimism that they will be able to sit on their hands and watch inflation slowly drop looks far fetched each time new numbers come out and with the eye test each month when we pay bills.
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