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AGQ - Looking for $30-$32 for ideal entry next two weeks. Expectation is $42 by end of May.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Did you say you were looking for a pullback to about $15 on MARA before the halving?
El_duderino said:
Did you say you were looking for a pullback to about $15 on MARA before the halving?
$10-$15 would be great. No guarantee we get it.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
BRY - Berry Corp - Current price = $8.69
Take a look at this chart. And there's a lot of interesting things here. I have a wave outline on it, but I'll use a collection of other indicators to show how this chart is setting up, where support and resistance are, and what the potential can be.
Legend
Explanation
Ultimate support is obviously $6.20. Higher support is $7.50, the lower end of the Keltner mid line and long term EMA's. Next resistance is $8.90 range. Through that, and $10.25-$10.75 becomes massive resistance.
This is close to showing negative divergence. What we are looking for is for MACD to start rolling over. Once it does, we look to the $7.50 range for support. If it holds, we BUY. If it breaks, we look for another hold of $6.20 and then BUY. This can keep going up until negative divergence forms. And like I said, Keltners, RSI, MACD, and EMA's all point to a local top soon. But MACD will tell you when the top is in. Look at all other times on the chart when those indicators were overbought. Which one sent the signal that a swing down was coming? MACD.
Once this one gets through $13.25, it's most likely heading back to $18. And if it shows real strength, it can get above $20. At that point, there's no resistance. Just a matter of how high it can go. Below $6.20 is an AVOID.
Take a look at this chart. And there's a lot of interesting things here. I have a wave outline on it, but I'll use a collection of other indicators to show how this chart is setting up, where support and resistance are, and what the potential can be.
Legend
- Keltner Channel: red=overbought (+4ATR), gray=balance, blue=oversold (-4ATR)
- Yellow: 144 EMA (Fib number representing long term trend)
- Light red: 610 EMA (Fib number representing very long term trend)
- Yellow box: Supply zone expanded to show the range this has moved in over most of its life
- Teal box: Demand zone expanded to show the wide range this could fall should support break
- Lower 1st pane: RSI
- Lower 2nd pane: MACD
Explanation
- Other than IPO and COVID, this has moved in a relatively tight range between $6.20 and $13.15. It has tripled tapped the bottom of the range over the last year, but kept well below the top going back 2 years.
- It is trading above both long term EMA's.
- It has crossed the top Keltner band with RSI in topping motion and MACD still pointing up.
Ultimate support is obviously $6.20. Higher support is $7.50, the lower end of the Keltner mid line and long term EMA's. Next resistance is $8.90 range. Through that, and $10.25-$10.75 becomes massive resistance.
This is close to showing negative divergence. What we are looking for is for MACD to start rolling over. Once it does, we look to the $7.50 range for support. If it holds, we BUY. If it breaks, we look for another hold of $6.20 and then BUY. This can keep going up until negative divergence forms. And like I said, Keltners, RSI, MACD, and EMA's all point to a local top soon. But MACD will tell you when the top is in. Look at all other times on the chart when those indicators were overbought. Which one sent the signal that a swing down was coming? MACD.
Once this one gets through $13.25, it's most likely heading back to $18. And if it shows real strength, it can get above $20. At that point, there's no resistance. Just a matter of how high it can go. Below $6.20 is an AVOID.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Another one that is a buy RIGHT now. KOS. Here's table with stop and target. Huge R/R
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
For those of us who are a bit slow, what's some background on the justification for KOS going that high?
Like many energy stocks have been showing (a lot of which have already broken out above), this shows a potential completed triangle. At the very least, it should start back up to the upper trendline. If not, that's why we have a stop. But when triangles break out to the upside, it can be robust. $20 is the minimum target based on the typical calculations I run for Wave 5 targets. The purple is most interesting, as its showing extended retracement level measured from the top before COVID to the bottom of the COVID crash. The orange 100% is measuring a 100% move of the size of Wave (3) from the end of the triangle for the upper target. It's long term EMA's are just above current action, so shorter EMA's starting to crossover above would be very bullish. And the potential end of the triangle bounced off the largest volume shelf since COVID (not shown). RSI is trending and in a neutral level and MACD is showing positive divergence potentially building.flashplayer said:
For those of us who are a bit slow, what's some background on the justification for KOS going that high?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Lot's more energy charts looking good. I'm not going to post EW stuff all over the place. So I'll probably just make a list with targets and stops and let everyone judge for themself when they want to risk their money.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I've been charting energy stocks for hours. Over the course of doing so, I've gone from skeptical energy, to hopeful energy, to FULL FARMER.
You never go full Farmer! Unless you want to make bank.
The great thing about all of these is that all of them have very defined stops. So you can play at your own risk. But when I say that some of these are threatening MASSIVE breakouts over the next 1-2 months, I don't mean DVN going from $53 to $60. More like $53 to $80.. by the end of summer possibly.
S&R levels are guesses. Some are more calculated than others. I didn't so a lot of zooming in as I want to get through as many as I can before these start to really break out. Energy is setting up to be the money maker over the coming year along with metals.
A couple of these are tagged "wait". You can absolutely buy here and I wouldn't fault you for layering in starting now. But XOM for example is at its only resistance level on its chart. The top of the triangle. I'm personally hoping for it to give a little. But it might not.
More coming tomorrow. Here's what I've gotten through today.
You never go full Farmer! Unless you want to make bank.
The great thing about all of these is that all of them have very defined stops. So you can play at your own risk. But when I say that some of these are threatening MASSIVE breakouts over the next 1-2 months, I don't mean DVN going from $53 to $60. More like $53 to $80.. by the end of summer possibly.
S&R levels are guesses. Some are more calculated than others. I didn't so a lot of zooming in as I want to get through as many as I can before these start to really break out. Energy is setting up to be the money maker over the coming year along with metals.
A couple of these are tagged "wait". You can absolutely buy here and I wouldn't fault you for layering in starting now. But XOM for example is at its only resistance level on its chart. The top of the triangle. I'm personally hoping for it to give a little. But it might not.
More coming tomorrow. Here's what I've gotten through today.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
no love for SHEL
sts7049 said:
no love for SHEL
Interested too
BTC making a weekend run. Wonder if actions will deviate from previous halvings if everyone is buying in before this time around
Very interesting analyses (particularly around IWM vs. SPX).
This is from a thread on F16 and the tweet may not be 100% accurate, but it's not too far from the truth.
The interest on the US national debt is already at $1 trillion per year.
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) April 7, 2024
As more older debt matures and needs to be refinanced at the new higher rates, the projected interest payments increase to between $1.2 trillion to $1.6 trillion, depending on if the Fed cuts rates and by… pic.twitter.com/3ZORUuPxGI
SHEL - This one actually isn't as clear as others. It's also running extremely hot on RSI and MACD. It can still go up over the coming months while RSI resets a bit, but a small retrace soon is needed. Pre-COVID resistance from 2018 comes in just shy of $74. Long term EMA's are between $58 and $63 right now. The pre-COVID multi-year range was $54-$74.
But look at how clear this channel is in LOG mode. There's your support right there, that mid line. It hasn't done more than a one day throw under and recovery since Nov 2020. If this breaks above $74, use the upper channel lines as targets.
I don't have an entry zone. But I will say, dropping below $60 probably isn't good on this. Ideally, you want it to stay over $70 at this point if you're invested.
But look at how clear this channel is in LOG mode. There's your support right there, that mid line. It hasn't done more than a one day throw under and recovery since Nov 2020. If this breaks above $74, use the upper channel lines as targets.
I don't have an entry zone. But I will say, dropping below $60 probably isn't good on this. Ideally, you want it to stay over $70 at this point if you're invested.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Just FYI.. here's the history of total eclipses and the stock market.
Solar eclipses and stock market performance since 1918 (yahoo.com)
And this is an old article from before the 2017 eclipse. That one has a 1-month return of 1.49%, 3-month return of 5.59%, 6-month return of 10.14%, and 12-month return of 13.74%.
The market could very well tank next week, but it won't be because of the eclipse.
Only one year of a total eclipse on record was really bad for the market, 1932. The market had bounced off the bottom from the roaring 20's top and reversal that ushered in the great depression. The eclipse led to a one week higher return before the market topped at $9.31 and then reversed over 5 months down to $5.53. The market then began another bounce phase and never again revisited that price level.
Solar eclipses and stock market performance since 1918 (yahoo.com)
And this is an old article from before the 2017 eclipse. That one has a 1-month return of 1.49%, 3-month return of 5.59%, 6-month return of 10.14%, and 12-month return of 13.74%.
The market could very well tank next week, but it won't be because of the eclipse.
Only one year of a total eclipse on record was really bad for the market, 1932. The market had bounced off the bottom from the roaring 20's top and reversal that ushered in the great depression. The eclipse led to a one week higher return before the market topped at $9.31 and then reversed over 5 months down to $5.53. The market then began another bounce phase and never again revisited that price level.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
The historic stock market crash of 1987 occurred shortly after a solar eclipse and the full moon that followed. It’s all about him emotions.
— Handsome Bear (@HandsomeBear) April 6, 2024
On Monday we will have another solar eclipse followed by a new 🌕 on Tuesday.$SPX $ES $NQ $QQQ $SPY
Not my chart, source in comments. pic.twitter.com/EInhaMIrA8
Now we're getting silly.
. And a new moon is opposite of a full moon…Brian Earl Spilner said:
Now we're getting silly.
Ok, got through as many as I could. Did I leave off any big names?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Thank you so much for putting in this work. It is greatly appreciated. I have market order for a couple of these placed for tomorrow morning.
What about service companies?
Baker Hughes?
Halliburton?
Schlumberger?
If energy is going to take off, stands to reason that service companies will too?
What about service companies?
Baker Hughes?
Halliburton?
Schlumberger?
If energy is going to take off, stands to reason that service companies will too?
FANG?
Baker Hughes isn't as robust looking. Not as much upside on a cursory glance.valvemonkey91 said:
Thank you so much for putting in this work. It is greatly appreciated. I have market order for a couple of these placed for tomorrow morning.
What about service companies?
Baker Hughes?
Halliburton?
Schlumberger?
If energy is going to take off, stands to reason that service companies will too?
Halliburton looks awesome. And primed. Buy under $44. Stop $33. Above $44 and it could rip. Target $125.
One thing to keep in mind is that all of these targets are mostly standard. Some have very long term confluence. Some of purely based on action since COVID bottom. These are all finality type of moves.. last wave up. So there is no guarantee standard targets get hit. But I stick with the plan until I see something that tells me to pivot.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Figures since I own a bit of Baker and Schlumberger
Buying 500 shares each of KOS and BRY at market open.
Thanks again.
Buying 500 shares each of KOS and BRY at market open.
Thanks again.
Sorry, I need to get some sleep or else I'd dig deeper. BKR does have some room. $54 is my guess end of year. It will rise if the rest of these does.valvemonkey91 said:
Figures since I own a bit of Baker and Schlumberger
Buying 500 shares each of KOS and BRY at market open.
Thanks again.
SLB $84 low end target.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I looked at it. Not sure why I didn't add it. Target low end $285 and high end $400.waryman said:
FANG?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
That would be a hell of a run on FANG, they're already up 30% YTD with announcement of Endeavor acquisition. Does the issuance of another $18B in stock to pay for the acquisition change your outlook?
Also, what about PR?
Also, what about PR?
Anything can happen. I can't apply something that hasn't happened yet as justification for something that might happen. Guessing doesn't help you trade. I outlined key support and resistance levels on all these names and will add FANG, BKR, HAL, SLB this evening. And I'll look at PRtxaggie_08 said:
That would be a hell of a run on FANG, they're already up 30% YTD with announcement of Endeavor acquisition. Does the issuance of another $18B in stock to pay for the acquisition change your outlook?
Also, what about PR?
But what I'm mostly looking at is 2020 - 2022. If oil explodes, it won't matter what a lot of these names are doing. The better operators will see higher reward, but the rising tide will raise all boats.
And if this bullishness I'm seeing comes to fruition, it is devastating news for the economy, inflation, and equities in general. Not having exposure to energy names toprofit off the bull will be punishing as it hits you in your everyday pocketbook. Similar to committing a turnover on the way to the hoop and the other team hitting a 3 on the other end. You didn't just lose the 2 points you were going to score. You get burned by the 5 point total swing.
Hopefully we get a little relief in Crude short term that allows some of these to provide better entries. But just watch the levels. Now that the list is made, I will start to distill down into the shorter term charts over the coming 1-2 weeks before earnings starts ramping.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
KOS order filled and stop set.
Wrong emoji
Wrong emoji
TSLA. Bullish case is that 100% move to $184. $200 would be a far extension if it kept going. Stop at this point needs to be $167.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Filled on KOS at $5.90 and NBR at $90.00. Going to set the exits now.
Back in CHEK Cap at $2.55 (Sold around $3.00)..
Have done more research ---
If proposed merger completes - they will pay shareholders a $3.00 dividend, assuming company meets net cash target (18 million). The company had 28 million at end of Sept. Even with a burn rate of a million a month (conservative), they should be able to hit it in my opinion.
In addition to the cash dividend - CHEK shareholders in sum will receive 15% stake in Nobul. Nobul is a real estate website based out of Canada wanting to go public via buying Chek Cap. Nobul has brokers bid on prospective business from buyers/sellers. I think an innovative concept.
If we can get the merger through - those are just bonus shares on top for upside.
There is opposition to the merger. From reading filings, about 15% of shares in open opposition. But they are some major insiders and at least one big private equity company (holds both Nobul and Check Cap) pushing for the merger to happen. I think they will win.
Have done more research ---
If proposed merger completes - they will pay shareholders a $3.00 dividend, assuming company meets net cash target (18 million). The company had 28 million at end of Sept. Even with a burn rate of a million a month (conservative), they should be able to hit it in my opinion.
In addition to the cash dividend - CHEK shareholders in sum will receive 15% stake in Nobul. Nobul is a real estate website based out of Canada wanting to go public via buying Chek Cap. Nobul has brokers bid on prospective business from buyers/sellers. I think an innovative concept.
If we can get the merger through - those are just bonus shares on top for upside.
There is opposition to the merger. From reading filings, about 15% of shares in open opposition. But they are some major insiders and at least one big private equity company (holds both Nobul and Check Cap) pushing for the merger to happen. I think they will win.
What is your target for KOS?agdaddy04 said:
Filled on KOS at $5.90 and NBR at $90.00. Going to set the exits now.
I have a few shares of it laying around in the red...
Can someone tell me what TRAW used to be? It's a pharma that showed up on my list, that I didn't own, so it has to be a recent ticker change.
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