ooooof, is Powell talking??

I'm indirectly in the business of carbon capture. DAC is the least competitive solution out there due to CAPEX $/ton CO2 captured. Other technologies are more advanced, well proven, and less costly.

EnronAg said:

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ooooof, is Powell talking??

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Sure as hell seems like it.

Aglaw97 said:

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ProgN said:

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Aglaw97 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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gougler08 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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When did Buffet start layering into OXY? We're just now back to the top of a $10 trading range dating back to Jan 2023 on that one. Could break out from here (I would prefer a bit of a pullback and then a moon rocket), could break lower back into the range. Point being, following him could fail to pay off for a long time. He's a long term investor. When he finds something he likes, he starts to buy.

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I sold at $67 and will enter in again if it trends down. If not, I'll take my 20% and move to the next one

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It's broken out from it's triangle. Just like with XLE, XOP, and many other energy charts, I'd like to see it come back a bit before exploding. I'm looking for $64 for next entry if today was a top of sorts.

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If you are willing to be long O&G there are still lots of good plays. Despite whatever rhetoric you may hear, fossil fuel demand isn't going anywhere anytime soon. And the lack of capital investment in the space over the last several years is going to catch up. Consolidation is happening as it needs to but it's happening at very accretive levels with less risk than some previous cycles where some targets were heavily debt laden. Several companies are printing money and if you are willing to hold, there are some attractive dividend plays that IMO have almost zero risk of cutting or reducing that dividend. I don't see these plays having rocket ship potential like some tech or AI. But when the overall pullback happens, they won't be hit as hard, will survive being drug down like everyone else and will still be providing an attractive dividend.

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Your post makes me think that you've done your research on the O&G sector, if I'm wrong tell me. If I'm right, start following POWL and if it hits $120 or better, then jump in. If your time horizon isn't short term, then you can buy it here. POWL is very engrained with O&G, but they've been expanding their into products into other industries.

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I'll take a look at them. I already missed the latest jump and want to understand their plans vis a vis capital and debt. If they don't have much leverage and aren't a regularly capital intensive business I'd be curious why their yield is pretty low.

As for research, I'd say I research in general, including lurking here, as I enjoy investing. Have some personal experience working with O&G so have some insight there, as well as some public and private investments. But just generally enjoy information from many sources and use that to inform my decisions.

And I'll echo some sentiments here that this market doesn't make sense to me and I expect a pretty big reversal at some point in the near future. I'm more cash/liquid heavy than I've been in awhile, which is not my typical MO.

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I am doing the same- keeping more cash on hand ready to pounce once the inevitable correction comes

also have been rebalancing in my personal brokerage lightening up on ETFs and sector trackers and instead going more overweight for individual tech/AI stocks

HoustonAg_2009 said:

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I'm indirectly in the business of carbon capture. DAC is the least competitive solution out there due to CAPEX $/ton CO2 captured. Other technologies are more advanced, well proven, and less costly.

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Like with most ESG initiatives, right know your best hope for a profitable return is to go start a business around this that a major is willing to buy just to sell their ESG story. It doesn't even have to be profitable. Proof of concept businesses are getting some of this. But as a third part investment these are really only private opportunities right now.

TSLA working on a somewhat rare engulfing candle today barring an end of day sell off

El_duderino said:

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TSLA working on a somewhat rare engulfing candle today barring an end of day sell off

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I bought back my $9 premium, $160 put I sold a couple weeks back, for $3.30. Wanted to get closer to 100% of the premium, but now that it's bought back, TSLA is free to run.

That still worked out nicely even though it didn't hit your 100% target.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Also. Don't even dare selling your metals positions. It's about rock n roll time. Pullbacks going forward are for adding only.

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URA has done well. Is now still a good entry point? What other metal ETF's do you like?

South Platte said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Also. Don't even dare selling your metals positions. It's about rock n roll time. Pullbacks going forward are for adding only.

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URA has done well. Is now still a good entry point? What other metal ETF's do you like?

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I'm torn on URA. I think Uranium demand will be up for the near future, but the miners in the uranium space just don't usually have the same bullish reaction like silver, gold, and copper miners do when the metal runs hot. Look at DNN for example. The companies in the space just aren't historically well run. But I'm certainly no expert. If anyone else has key insights, I'd focus on them over me.

El_duderino said:

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That still worked out nicely even though it didn't hit your 100% target.

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And I decided to go back with my original thesis, that the put sale is for lowering my basis, and if I end up with the shares with the stock dipping to $150, I'm ok with it. So with that, I just sold a June $160 for $10.40.

Riding the wheel baby.

lots of bullish flow today in GOLD and GFI (a gold miner)

Was doing some research on the uranium miners the other day. The problem many of them have on capitalizing on increased uranium spot prices is that they are locked into long-term contracts with a lot of their buyers since you can't really go uranium shopping very easily for new sources.

There are some uranium companies like UEC who are not locked in to long-term deals, and are better positioned to take advantage of the upward fluctuating prices. UEC has bought up a lot of uranium at much lower prices than current price and is supposed to have a lot of mining projects underway that are not yet producing or profitable but are expected to sequentially come online between late this year through 2027. In my mind, it's more of a high risk high reward proposition because if things go well for them getting extraction going, there's no reason they shouldn't rip pretty high. But if they get bogged down and the price of uranium stays flat, I wouldn't expect that investment to work out very well.

I sold my UEC shares today when it hit 7.65 after it made a quick 10%-15% move after I bought it around a week or so ago. If it holds at that level or creeps up to 8 and uranium continues going up I will get back in hoping for a longer bull run. If it falls back close to 7.00 or less will get back in to play for another bounce.

SNDL?

Heineken-Ashi said:

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South Platte said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Also. Don't even dare selling your metals positions. It's about rock n roll time. Pullbacks going forward are for adding only.

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URA has done well. Is now still a good entry point? What other metal ETF's do you like?

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I'm torn on URA. I think Uranium demand will be up for the near future, but the miners in the uranium space just don't usually have the same bullish reaction like silver, gold, and copper miners do when the metal runs hot. Look at DNN for example. The companies in the space just aren't historically well run. But I'm certainly no expert. If anyone else has key insights, I'd focus on them over me.

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I appreciate your thoughts on these opportunities.

might get there very shortly. markets with some heavy selling.

for a month that is seasonally super bullish, this is shaping up to be a dumpster fire. I can only imagine May ("stay away in May"). and metals running like crazy today.

POWL: Anyone who's on this thread occasionally watched the run from $70's to $190. You've mentioned $120 as a re-entry point. What about that number interests you?

Check bottom right of pic.

Look at year over year earnings growth and held by institutions.


Also their forward PE

Aglaw97 said:

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I'll research them further. Appreciate you putting them on my radar. They seem a little bigger than a micro cap at 1.6b, but we may be splitting hairs on definitions. My only concern would be whether the current price is priced to perfection given Q1 results and whether I've missed the entry. But if they consistently beat, maybe not. Given the low liquidity I'd also be wary of large swings if there is any negative news coming off the Q1 results and guidance.

I've actually followed a couple of small cap companies with BR in the investor base that pay a nice yield. Im just not as familiar with POWL. They seem to have a lot of cash and little debt. Just curious their plans for growth and what they will use the cash for.

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" Given the low liquidity I'd also be wary of large swings", this is what I'm hoping for. I just need this market to reverse just a little bit and POWL will swing much lower due to the same low liquidity. The market hasn't been down 2% in over the last 100+ trading days, and FOMO has people buying every dip, ignoring all the negative economic/geopolitical news. There will be a reversion and I plan to begin re-entering POWL at $120 and if things get really nasty and it breaks under $100, then I'm putting Heineken on Ebay and using that money with my cash position and loading the boat. JMO.

ProgN said:

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https://fintel.io/so/us/powl#:~:text=Largest%20shareholders%20include%20BlackRock%20Inc,Vanguard%20Total%20Stock%20Market%20Index

Quote:

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Powell Industries, Inc. (US:POWL) has 455 institutional owners and shareholders that have filed 13D/G or 13F forms with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). These institutions hold a total of 9,870,229 shares. Largest shareholders include BlackRock Inc., Dimensional Fund Advisors Lp, Vanguard Group Inc, IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF, Renaissance Technologies Llc, Mirae Asset Global Investments Co., Ltd., PAVE - Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF, State Street Corp, VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares, and IWM - iShares Russell 2000 ETF .

Powell Industries, Inc. (NasdaqGS:POWL) institutional ownership structure shows current positions in the company by institutions and funds, as well as latest changes in position size. Major shareholders can include individual investors, mutual funds, hedge funds, or institutions. The Schedule 13D indicates that the investor holds (or held) more than 5% of the company and intends (or intended) to actively pursue a change in business strategy. Schedule 13G indicates a passive investment of over 5%.

The share price as of April 2, 2024 is 135.02 / share. Previously, on April 4, 2023, the share price was 40.36 / share. This represents an increase of 234.54% over that period.

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Blackrock, Vanguard, and State Street are huge and I doubt they'd invest in a microcap. You posted that you enjoyed research. If my posts don't get your attention to dig deeper into them, then you can't ever say no one ever told you about it.

I'd be interested in your opininon of POWL after you do your DD. If you find something of concern that I didn't see, then it benefits us both and everyone here. The more information everyone is shown, then it lowers the probability of losing and I don't want anyone in our clubhouse to lose.

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The larger long only investors are typically a good indicator. I will do a little more research and revert back. Appreciate the sentiment here for everyone to benefit and profit from the collective thoughts.

ProgN said:

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Aglaw97 said:

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I'll research them further. Appreciate you putting them on my radar. They seem a little bigger than a micro cap at 1.6b, but we may be splitting hairs on definitions. My only concern would be whether the current price is priced to perfection given Q1 results and whether I've missed the entry. But if they consistently beat, maybe not. Given the low liquidity I'd also be wary of large swings if there is any negative news coming off the Q1 results and guidance.

I've actually followed a couple of small cap companies with BR in the investor base that pay a nice yield. Im just not as familiar with POWL. They seem to have a lot of cash and little debt. Just curious their plans for growth and what they will use the cash for.

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" Given the low liquidity I'd also be wary of large swings", this is what I'm hoping for. I just need this market to reverse just a little bit and POWL will swing much lower due to the same low liquidity. The market hasn't been down 2% in over the last 100+ trading days, and FOMO has people buying every dip, ignoring all the negative economic/geopolitical news. There will be a reversion and I plan to begin re-entering POWL at $120 and if things get really nasty and it breaks under $100, then I'm putting Heineken on Ebay and using that money with my cash position and loading the boat. JMO.

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You can definitely play the swings both ways. And you are smart enough to have some stops in place with a volatile stock if that's your play. I made that mistake very early in my investing career in the dotcom era. I just need to understand my strategy with a stock and whether I'm playing a swing or plan to weather those because I believe in the long term.

Appreciate all the info. I'll do some DD and reply back. Since it's on my radar, I'd prefer not to add it to my "Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda" portfolio managed by Hindsight Capital.

KHC - Has a chance to break out through a 2-year semi-sideways downtrend channel soon with earnings in May. Once this one breaks $40, it could get robust quickly. I've got target range $50 - $70 by year end if it does. It hasn't been above $49 since December 2018, so definitely not a sure thing. But inflationary prices could be the driver here. Stop is $34. Ideally it wouldn't drop below $36 again, so if you are more cautious you can put a stop in the $35's.

TRGP closed at 116 today. I've been holding this since COVID. How high will it go? Pays a $2 dividend to boot.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-and-palantir-join-forces-to-deliver-mission-critical-ai-solutions-to-governments-and-businesses-302108086.html

Oracle and PLTR deal.

Well that explains the PLTR move up premarket

El_duderino said:

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Well that explains the PLTR move up premarket

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Keyword in that release is "distribution." I think this is the inflection point for PLTR.