workingBrewmaster said:
bought SOXL, just a quick play. should be out of it by this afternoon.
just need NVDA and SMCI to wake up and this is a ripper
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Last: 1 hr ago by Swollen Thumb
just need NVDA and SMCI to wake up and this is a ripper
Also. Don't even dare selling your metals positions. It's about rock n roll time. Pullbacks going forward are for adding only.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Those Sept. 30 $26 calls looking pretty good now. Thanks!Heineken-Ashi said:
Also. Don't even dare selling your metals positions. It's about rock n roll time. Pullbacks going forward are for adding only.
Mad at myself for getting too conservative with my ROKU stop.
Buffett continues to buy up LSXMA and LSXMK as the merger with SiriusXM still hangs out there. According to the deal shareholders of LSXMA and LSXMK will receive 8.4 shares of Sirius for every one share held.
Obviously since Buffett keeps buying the 2 stocks up he remains confident the deal will close. Looks like about 9% arbitrage opportunity here.
What am I missing?
Obviously since Buffett keeps buying the 2 stocks up he remains confident the deal will close. Looks like about 9% arbitrage opportunity here.
What am I missing?
When did Buffet start layering into OXY? We're just now back to the top of a $10 trading range dating back to Jan 2023 on that one. Could break out from here (I would prefer a bit of a pullback and then a moon rocket), could break lower back into the range. Point being, following him could fail to pay off for a long time. He's a long term investor. When he finds something he likes, he starts to buy.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
2019 Q3 at around $47
Thanks. But hasn't he been hammering it like crazy over the last two years? I'm not really a Buffet buyer, so might be wrong.El_duderino said:
2019 Q3 at around $47
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
I bought some in July 2022, sold in Dec. 22 and started buying again in Jan. 23. Based on what he was doing at the time.Heineken-Ashi said:Thanks. But hasn't he been hammering it like crazy over the last two years? I'm not really a Buffet buyer, so might be wrong.El_duderino said:
2019 Q3 at around $47
We're still very long OXY over here.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
We're??Heineken-Ashi said:
We're still very long OXY over here.
Are your pronouns they/them? Asking for a friend.
ProgN said:We're??Heineken-Ashi said:
We're still very long OXY over here.
Are your pronouns they/them? Asking for a friend.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Heineken-Ashi said:
When did Buffet start layering into OXY? We're just now back to the top of a $10 trading range dating back to Jan 2023 on that one. Could break out from here (I would prefer a bit of a pullback and then a moon rocket), could break lower back into the range. Point being, following him could fail to pay off for a long time. He's a long term investor. When he finds something he likes, he starts to buy.
I sold at $67 and will enter in again if it trends down. If not, I'll take my 20% and move to the next one
It's broken out from it's triangle. Just like with XLE, XOP, and many other energy charts, I'd like to see it come back a bit before exploding. I'm looking for $64 for next entry if today was a top of sorts.gougler08 said:Heineken-Ashi said:
When did Buffet start layering into OXY? We're just now back to the top of a $10 trading range dating back to Jan 2023 on that one. Could break out from here (I would prefer a bit of a pullback and then a moon rocket), could break lower back into the range. Point being, following him could fail to pay off for a long time. He's a long term investor. When he finds something he likes, he starts to buy.
I sold at $67 and will enter in again if it trends down. If not, I'll take my 20% and move to the next one
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Heineken-Ashi said:It's broken out from it's triangle. Just like with XLE, XOP, and many other energy charts, I'd like to see it come back a bit before exploding. I'm looking for $64 for next entry if today was a top of sorts.gougler08 said:Heineken-Ashi said:
When did Buffet start layering into OXY? We're just now back to the top of a $10 trading range dating back to Jan 2023 on that one. Could break out from here (I would prefer a bit of a pullback and then a moon rocket), could break lower back into the range. Point being, following him could fail to pay off for a long time. He's a long term investor. When he finds something he likes, he starts to buy.
I sold at $67 and will enter in again if it trends down. If not, I'll take my 20% and move to the next one
If you are willing to be long O&G there are still lots of good plays. Despite whatever rhetoric you may hear, fossil fuel demand isn't going anywhere anytime soon. And the lack of capital investment in the space over the last several years is going to catch up. Consolidation is happening as it needs to but it's happening at very accretive levels with less risk than some previous cycles where some targets were heavily debt laden. Several companies are printing money and if you are willing to hold, there are some attractive dividend plays that IMO have almost zero risk of cutting or reducing that dividend. I don't see these plays having rocket ship potential like some tech or AI. But when the overall pullback happens, they won't be hit as hard, will survive being drug down like everyone else and will still be providing an attractive dividend.
Your post makes me think that you've done your research on the O&G sector, if I'm wrong tell me. If I'm right, start following POWL and if it hits $120 or better, then jump in. If your time horizon isn't short term, then you can buy it here. POWL is very engrained with O&G, but they've been expanding their into products into other industries.Aglaw97 said:Heineken-Ashi said:It's broken out from it's triangle. Just like with XLE, XOP, and many other energy charts, I'd like to see it come back a bit before exploding. I'm looking for $64 for next entry if today was a top of sorts.gougler08 said:Heineken-Ashi said:
When did Buffet start layering into OXY? We're just now back to the top of a $10 trading range dating back to Jan 2023 on that one. Could break out from here (I would prefer a bit of a pullback and then a moon rocket), could break lower back into the range. Point being, following him could fail to pay off for a long time. He's a long term investor. When he finds something he likes, he starts to buy.
I sold at $67 and will enter in again if it trends down. If not, I'll take my 20% and move to the next one
If you are willing to be long O&G there are still lots of good plays. Despite whatever rhetoric you may hear, fossil fuel demand isn't going anywhere anytime soon. And the lack of capital investment in the space over the last several years is going to catch up. Consolidation is happening as it needs to but it's happening at very accretive levels with less risk than some previous cycles where some targets were heavily debt laden. Several companies are printing money and if you are willing to hold, there are some attractive dividend plays that IMO have almost zero risk of cutting or reducing that dividend. I don't see these plays having rocket ship potential like some tech or AI. But when the overall pullback happens, they won't be hit as hard, will survive being drug down like everyone else and will still be providing an attractive dividend.
big earthquake off taiwan
Heineken-Ashi said:It's broken out from it's triangle. Just like with XLE, XOP, and many other energy charts, I'd like to see it come back a bit before exploding. I'm looking for $64 for next entry if today was a top of sorts.gougler08 said:Heineken-Ashi said:
When did Buffet start layering into OXY? We're just now back to the top of a $10 trading range dating back to Jan 2023 on that one. Could break out from here (I would prefer a bit of a pullback and then a moon rocket), could break lower back into the range. Point being, following him could fail to pay off for a long time. He's a long term investor. When he finds something he likes, he starts to buy.
I sold at $67 and will enter in again if it trends down. If not, I'll take my 20% and move to the next one
I also work for SHEL so heavily exposed to energy as it is, so I just look to make quick plays in energy when I like a setup
I hear you. Sounds like no one on the board is interested in the Sirius play!! For what it's worth I'm long in COP as I prefer them over OXY.
ProgN said:Your post makes me think that you've done your research on the O&G sector, if I'm wrong tell me. If I'm right, start following POWL and if it hits $120 or better, then jump in. If your time horizon isn't short term, then you can buy it here. POWL is very engrained with O&G, but they've been expanding their into products into other industries.Aglaw97 said:Heineken-Ashi said:It's broken out from it's triangle. Just like with XLE, XOP, and many other energy charts, I'd like to see it come back a bit before exploding. I'm looking for $64 for next entry if today was a top of sorts.gougler08 said:Heineken-Ashi said:
When did Buffet start layering into OXY? We're just now back to the top of a $10 trading range dating back to Jan 2023 on that one. Could break out from here (I would prefer a bit of a pullback and then a moon rocket), could break lower back into the range. Point being, following him could fail to pay off for a long time. He's a long term investor. When he finds something he likes, he starts to buy.
I sold at $67 and will enter in again if it trends down. If not, I'll take my 20% and move to the next one
If you are willing to be long O&G there are still lots of good plays. Despite whatever rhetoric you may hear, fossil fuel demand isn't going anywhere anytime soon. And the lack of capital investment in the space over the last several years is going to catch up. Consolidation is happening as it needs to but it's happening at very accretive levels with less risk than some previous cycles where some targets were heavily debt laden. Several companies are printing money and if you are willing to hold, there are some attractive dividend plays that IMO have almost zero risk of cutting or reducing that dividend. I don't see these plays having rocket ship potential like some tech or AI. But when the overall pullback happens, they won't be hit as hard, will survive being drug down like everyone else and will still be providing an attractive dividend.
I'll take a look at them. I already missed the latest jump and want to understand their plans vis a vis capital and debt. If they don't have much leverage and aren't a regularly capital intensive business I'd be curious why their yield is pretty low.
As for research, I'd say I research in general, including lurking here, as I enjoy investing. Have some personal experience working with O&G so have some insight there, as well as some public and private investments. But just generally enjoy information from many sources and use that to inform my decisions.
And I'll echo some sentiments here that this market doesn't make sense to me and I expect a pretty big reversal at some point in the near future. I'm more cash/liquid heavy than I've been in awhile, which is not my typical MO.
It's worth also considering that OXY is more than just oil and gas. Don't dismiss the Direct Air Capture component of their business, and I think Buffett has his eyes on that portion of it just as much as the other portion of their business, despite it's infancy.
I think it has been briefly touched on before somewhere in the forums, but the Inflation Reduction Act increased the tax credit for carbon capture activities, and DAC now has a much larger tax credit per ton of captured carbon. It was pretty soon after the Act was passed that Buffet started really buying up OXY shares.
The counterpoint, though, is how much of the DAC business is a legitimate, profit making activity with a real demand, versus how much of it is driven by virtue signaling eco-warriorism? If the tax credit is ever removed, would they still operate the business? Will there be a continued desire by corporations to purchase carbon-removal credits? It is interesting that Oxy's DAC subsidiary is already making deals with this stuff, notably with Amazon and Airbus.
As for Oil and Gas itself, there are still great picks out there. Personally, I like COP, CVX, FANG/VNOM, PR...anybody in the Permian is a winner really. OXY makes up 4% of my portfolio, though I probably won't add anymore. But around $60-63, I feel like it is a buy, and that seems to be when Buffet usually adds more.
Anyways....food for thought. I'm sure there are people who read this who know much, much more about this than me, and I welcome any correction.
I think it has been briefly touched on before somewhere in the forums, but the Inflation Reduction Act increased the tax credit for carbon capture activities, and DAC now has a much larger tax credit per ton of captured carbon. It was pretty soon after the Act was passed that Buffet started really buying up OXY shares.
The counterpoint, though, is how much of the DAC business is a legitimate, profit making activity with a real demand, versus how much of it is driven by virtue signaling eco-warriorism? If the tax credit is ever removed, would they still operate the business? Will there be a continued desire by corporations to purchase carbon-removal credits? It is interesting that Oxy's DAC subsidiary is already making deals with this stuff, notably with Amazon and Airbus.
As for Oil and Gas itself, there are still great picks out there. Personally, I like COP, CVX, FANG/VNOM, PR...anybody in the Permian is a winner really. OXY makes up 4% of my portfolio, though I probably won't add anymore. But around $60-63, I feel like it is a buy, and that seems to be when Buffet usually adds more.
Anyways....food for thought. I'm sure there are people who read this who know much, much more about this than me, and I welcome any correction.
yocod said:
It's worth also considering that OXY is more than just oil and gas. Don't dismiss the Direct Air Capture component of their business, and I think Buffett has his eyes on that portion of it just as much as the other portion of their business, despite it's infancy.
I think it has been briefly touched on before somewhere in the forums, but the Inflation Reduction Act increased the tax credit for carbon capture activities, and DAC now has a much larger tax credit per ton of captured carbon. It was pretty soon after the Act was passed that Buffet started really buying up OXY shares.
The counterpoint, though, is how much of the DAC business is a legitimate, profit making activity with a real demand, versus how much of it is driven by virtue signaling eco-warriorism? If the tax credit is ever removed, would they still operate the business? Will there be a continued desire by corporations to purchase carbon-removal credits? It is interesting that Oxy's DAC subsidiary is already making deals with this stuff, notably with Amazon and Airbus.
As for Oil and Gas itself, there are still great picks out there. Personally, I like COP, CVX, FANG/VNOM, PR...anybody in the Permian is a winner really. OXY makes up 4% of my portfolio, though I probably won't add anymore. But around $60-63, I feel like it is a buy, and that seems to be when Buffet usually adds more.
Anyways....food for thought. I'm sure there are people who read this who know much, much more about this than me, and I welcome any correction.
Ding ding ding! They are investing heavily in the DAC segment and I know they have high expectations for its impact.
TLT $89 - $90 is the buy zone. It's getting very very close. For those that don't know the correlation between bond prices and rates, bonds up means rates down. I've been watching for this area for a while with a bounce that would take it to $110 with $120 not out of the picture. And if TLT is doing that, rates are dropping.
I am not saying it WILL happen. But I'm a TLT buyer here, and only a significant break of the $89 region will cause me to stop out and consider TLT and bonds going much lower.
I am not saying it WILL happen. But I'm a TLT buyer here, and only a significant break of the $89 region will cause me to stop out and consider TLT and bonds going much lower.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
HA - don't know if I've missed it, but is the target for HRMY still $38-40?
I had moved my stop up and got stopped out a while back. Draw a trendline of recent lows on daily candles (Dec and Mar lows). You don't want to see it break below that. And yes, I'd be looking for $37-$41.MillerLite92 said:
HA - don't know if I've missed it, but is the target for HRMY still $38-40?
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
I think it remains to be determined whether carbon capture actually translates to bottom line profitability. But as you note, it's one of the latest ESG du jour mechanisms that companies tout just to say they are participating. Right now I don't view it as a positive or a negative. IMO the jury is still out whether companies get credit for this, whether through stock price maintenance (I don't think it appreciates the price until the value is proven) or otherwise.yocod said:
It's worth also considering that OXY is more than just oil and gas. Don't dismiss the Direct Air Capture component of their business, and I think Buffett has his eyes on that portion of it just as much as the other portion of their business, despite it's infancy.
I think it has been briefly touched on before somewhere in the forums, but the Inflation Reduction Act increased the tax credit for carbon capture activities, and DAC now has a much larger tax credit per ton of captured carbon. It was pretty soon after the Act was passed that Buffet started really buying up OXY shares.
The counterpoint, though, is how much of the DAC business is a legitimate, profit making activity with a real demand, versus how much of it is driven by virtue signaling eco-warriorism? If the tax credit is ever removed, would they still operate the business? Will there be a continued desire by corporations to purchase carbon-removal credits? It is interesting that Oxy's DAC subsidiary is already making deals with this stuff, notably with Amazon and Airbus.
As for Oil and Gas itself, there are still great picks out there. Personally, I like COP, CVX, FANG/VNOM, PR...anybody in the Permian is a winner really. OXY makes up 4% of my portfolio, though I probably won't add anymore. But around $60-63, I feel like it is a buy, and that seems to be when Buffet usually adds more.
Anyways....food for thought. I'm sure there are people who read this who know much, much more about this than me, and I welcome any correction.
What caused the jump in the market? Not complaining. I had SPX calls.
ISM weaker than expectedRagoo said:
What caused the jump in the market? Not complaining. I had SPX calls.
JPow at 11 am - economic outlook chat
not sure I like this morning pump before he goes on. NVDA straight up
not sure I like this morning pump before he goes on. NVDA straight up
DAC will be a loss leader for OXY. There's a reason why Vicki has pulled back her comments about building 50 globally. OXY is a great company, but their West Texas DAC won't be financially successful.
agree with you...but if he sounds weak/dovish, the bulls are gonna rip...and test another ATH...these dip buyers are just relentless...Brewmaster said:
JPow at 11 am - economic outlook chat
not sure I like this morning pump before he goes on. NVDA straight up
it's fading…..Brewmaster said:
JPow at 11 am - economic outlook chat
not sure I like this morning pump before he goes on. NVDA straight up
That combined with the risks of greenwashing disclosureHoustonAg_2009 said:
DAC will be a loss leader for OXY. There's a reason why Vicki has pulled back her comments about building 50 globally. OXY is a great company, but their West Texas DAC won't be financially successful.
Aglaw97 said:That combined with the risks of greenwashing disclosureHoustonAg_2009 said:
DAC will be a loss leader for OXY. There's a reason why Vicki has pulled back her comments about building 50 globally. OXY is a great company, but their West Texas DAC won't be financially successful.
My buddy is getting his phd at rice and his main study is on carbon capture. What you said, checks out with all of his research. There is no cost effective product out there.
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