Heineken-Ashi said:

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There's a fairly unique balance right now considering where we are. Every venue I'm active on has technical traders quite bullish, many of them VERY experienced over decades, looking far upwards of here. In fact, only one year out of like 15 that started at least 8% up in SPX finished negative for the year in returns. And most went much, much higher. I've seen 5500. I've seen them say 6000. On the flip side, the other half of people feel something isn't quite right and that a selloff is looming. Many of them are also VERY experienced and are a lot like ProgN. It's weirdly balanced. And when I say balanced, I mean truly divided equally. Even in places where the hosted content is quite decisive looking in one direction. At the same time, the public has turned mostly bullish. There's still a large contingent of doom and gloomers, most of whom have been calling for major selloffs for a decade now. I look at those people as being very practical and smart, knowing we are in a charade. But the economic charade can go on for a long, long time while making them look like absolute fools. They will one day be right, but what will they have lost on the way?

I do have to point something out. And I believe it should be considered heavily. I've seen many many posts in many many places comparing 2024 to fractals in history. I've compared us to 1998 or 1999 myself. I'm by no means saying its wrong or should not be considered that we look to history. But you also have to consider that the market, and really.. our economy, has been in a near 100-year debt leveraged growth stage. Every time trouble looms, more debt is incurred, currency devalued, or liquidity pushed into the economy. Every one of these events going back decades were rebounded not by natural productivity increases, but by micro-managed, top-down, fiscal and monetary policy from a centralized origin. Global trade efficiencies over decades has taken the place of home grown productivity increases, and pawning our weakness onto countries who are completely reliant on our dollar and our debt has helped us limit our own pain.

Now look at the fiscal, monetary, and economic backdrop of where we are. America doubled its debt following the Great Recession and then doubled it again in 2020. Look at the SPX since 2009 and run it side by side with the debt curve. Our debt is now growing at exponential rates, and we are fast approaching the largest expense being interest on debt.The FED itself has said that even if we have a soft landing and everything works out at planned, it will be 2029 before they remit payments to the treasury again. That's 5 years with the treasury not getting a dime from their primary funding source. And we are originating more debt than any other time and history. So far, it's being bought in a stable manner. But the second the world starts demanding a higher return, this could turn very bad.

So now look back at the market leading to 2008, 2000, 1987, 1980, 1973, 1968, 1966, 1961..

The only time period that even comes close was the 70's and 80's. But even then, debt to GDP was in the 30-40% range. We're over 120% right now. We're below historical average interest rates and the economy is on the brink of turmoil. Let that sink in. Home grown American employment hasn't increased in 5 years. It's all going to non-citzens.

Trying to compare now, when we are at the brink of unsustainable public leverage, likely closer to a top looking toward a sustained long-term bear market, to times that were merely blips on the way up within a long term debt-leveraged economic supercycle.. it's just not even close to compareable. All of those things LED to this thing. They were followed with irresponsible can kicking that left US, you, me, our families, and our kids to sow. And there isn't a soul or entity on the planet that can step in and save the markets from a widespread economic event. It will affect the whole world. The next event won't be a recession. Because there isn't a runway for rescue that doesn't immediately lead to massive pain.

This market will extend until it won't. It sounds cliche and kind of stupid. But something will kick it off. And none of us will likely be looking for it when it hits. Don't search for the news. It won't be news, though media and analysts will try and correlate it to.. something. It might not even be new wars as those are extremely bullish for multiple industries. It will most likely happen when literally nothing happens. When the bears have given up.

No, there's not really anything you can do to prepare if you haven't started yet. And if you have started and have committed to looking down, you've missed out on a ton of gains and are having to bite your tongue while the bulls laugh at you. Might work out for you. Might work out for them. But I wouldn't be feeling bad about being prepared even a little bit.

Long story short, history rhymes. It doesn't repeat. We are creatures of habit and creatures of logical pattern recognition. But just like a poet doesn't write the same poem twice.. yet will use the same structure multiple times, the next major market selloff will not happen when others happened and it won't conform to the same pattern leading up to it that others did. But when it does happen, it will sure as hell happen in a familar structure. If you want to look at the most comparable scenario to where we are now, it's most likely the roaring 20's. But even those ended with an absolute bang to the upside.. and no.. the market since November doesn't come close to that. But does that mean to expect a blowoff top over multiple years? You can't. Because expecting that can get you in trouble. Because history doesn't repeat. It merely rhymes.

Be bullish in a controlled manner when an opportunity presents. Don't front run bearish with any money you aren't willing to completely lose. But don't shy away from being careful.

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bmoochie said:

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Gross looking day setting up. Was hoping for an opening TSLA push to $180 range to enter those puts again. Sad I missed this one.

In other news, I was reading last night how there is some divergence happening and that should definitely have people on high alert. SPX at all time highs while big sector leaders are making lower highs. NVDA META AAPL ect.... Just food for thought and reiterating what some of what's been posted here already.

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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GE - $175 to $140 in the blink of an eye this morning. Wow.

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GreasenUSA said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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GE - $175 to $140 in the blink of an eye this morning. Wow.

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Is that not just a price per share adjustment due to their spinoff?

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El_duderino said:

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Heineken, were you looking for a pullback on SLV for the Sep $25 calls to reach the $.50-.70 area again?

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ETX_Ag_22_24 said:

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What's the driver behind investing in miners opposed BTC itself? Is it less risky or have a higher risk/reward? Thanks in advance!

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