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lobwedgephil
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 1:12a, 3/16/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
CLSK - Two potentials I'm tracking.

1. Hold $12 or higher on any further moves down and then I'm looking for $26-$27.
2. If it comes down further, I'm looking for support between $7 and $9 and going in heavy with target $45.

The second one is what I really want to happen, as I think the bull run that could potentially engage follows BTC up to $100k+ after a potential correction soon that would lead into halving in April. The first one assumes the current run up isn't done and we're going to get one more extension upon which I will sell and wait for a sizeable correction.
Probably a nice move coming, CLSK had its largest trade since inception at close today. So $17.47 your most important line for now. $11.00 would be my add if we get there.

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nortex97
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In reply to lobwedgephil • 6:26a, 3/16/24
AG
Great info thx.
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Heineken-Ashi
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12:46p, 3/16/24
Over the last 20 years, GLD has outshined SLV as a store of value. See the top pane which compares the two. During bear markets and range markets, GLD holds up better. SLV is more easily and heavily diluted on the supply side and considered less rare.

But notice what happens in the bull markets. While they mostly rise in tandem, GLD has a more consistent rise, making it seem to outperform SLV. Then, towards the end, SLV shoots up in an explosive manner outshining GLD on a returns basis before falling back into place.

This is why I have shares of SLV and both mid and long dated options. When SLV makes it's move, it is once a decade wealth building engine of awesomeness.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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El_duderino
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12:58p, 3/16/24
Just looking at the 1 year daily chart on SLV, is a pullback to the 50% retrace ($21.95) from this two week run up to expected before it pushes even higher?
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to El_duderino • 1:20p, 3/16/24
El_duderino said:
Just looking at the 1 year daily chart on SLV, is a pullback to the 50% retrace ($21.95) from this two week run up to expected before it pushes even higher?
Something like that is what I'm expecting. But these things can tend to extend a little irrationally in times like this, so don't go shorting or anything. Ideally it would hold $22.50 and make one more move to $24. From there, I'll be watching for a high probability retracement into support at prices we likely won't see again until the next metal bear.

There's also a chance this is a false rally and metals have one more low before the real rally starts. SLV below $21.50 again would really start to move the probabilities of that back into my thinking.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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El_duderino
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 1:37p, 3/16/24
Definitely not shorting. Waiting for a pullback to pick up some of the $25 Sep 24 calls.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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3:51p, 3/16/24
Missing everyone over here. Been chaotic of late and work/family keeping me busy. Bought home (finally!) in December.

Took me over a year to get over the trading yips after I got
blown out last year on a short position. Recently purchased MMM ($92.05), ROKU ($62-63), SNOW ($168), and LMT ($434).

Gonna try fewer options trades as I can't be super active. Will be a mix of short/intermediate and long-term investing strategy.

Hope everyone is well. Will try to come around more. Enjoy OA's service but hard to utilize since I can rarely check markets actively during the day. Do enjoy that he has his ear to the ground tho!
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 4:05p, 3/16/24
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Missing everyone over here. Been chaotic of late and work/family keeping me busy. Bought home (finally!) in December.

Took me over a year to get over the trading yips after I got
blown out last year on a short position. Recently purchased MMM ($92.05), ROKU ($62-63), SNOW ($168), and LMT ($434).

Gonna try fewer options trades as I can't be super active. Will be a mix of short/intermediate and long-term investing strategy.

Hope everyone is well. Will try to come around more. Enjoy OA's service but hard to utilize since I can rarely check markets actively during the day. Do enjoy that he has his ear to the ground tho!


Great to see you doc! Congrats on the new home and how's your little man doing? Glad you have reinforcements on the way and won't be in your man cave all alone.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to ProgN • 5:20p, 3/16/24
ProgN said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Missing everyone over here. Been chaotic of late and work/family keeping me busy. Bought home (finally!) in December.

Took me over a year to get over the trading yips after I got
blown out last year on a short position. Recently purchased MMM ($92.05), ROKU ($62-63), SNOW ($168), and LMT ($434).

Gonna try fewer options trades as I can't be super active. Will be a mix of short/intermediate and long-term investing strategy.

Hope everyone is well. Will try to come around more. Enjoy OA's service but hard to utilize since I can rarely check markets actively during the day. Do enjoy that he has his ear to the ground tho!


Great to see you doc! Congrats on the new home and how's your little man doing? Glad you have reinforcements on the way and won't be in your man cave all alone.


You're the best brother! He'll be 1 yr old in 2 wks. 30K and you and I need to get together soon. Reach out when you're in this direction.
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 5:48p, 3/16/24
Great looking boy brother! Post a place we can send him a gift. We need to Aggie his ass up like a boss!
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spud1910
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 7:41p, 3/16/24
AG
Great to see you back!
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AgEng06
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7:54p, 3/16/24
AG
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Heineken-Ashi
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10:01p, 3/16/24
PFE (Pfizer). Look at this weekly chart. Perfect ending diagonal from COVID to the ATH. ED's are what happens when something goes too far too fast in the preceding bullish wave. It signals a slowing of bullish sentiment with strong reversal likely. They almost always reverse back to where they started, and as expected, this did not dissapoint. I expect it to retrace back up between $35 and $45 by the election forming a nice H&S dating back to 2018. Then I'd be out and expecting full dump.

This chart shows my EW labels, the upward retracement levels, the volume shelf profile, and a downward fib fan starting at ATH and second point being recent low. I also checked out some cycle zones and fib time zones that line up with my targets, but timing is a crapshoot.



On the daily chart, the 8 EMA has crossed the 21 and 34 which are now clustered around $27.50, so a drop below those should be your stop around $27 right now.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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MRB10
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3:48p, 3/17/24
AG
https://www.isda.org/a/h3sgE/ISDA-Submits-Letter-to-US-Agencies-on-SLR-Reform.pdf

Heineken/Bonfire - how big of a deal would changing regulations to exclude treasuries from the SLR be? I'm reading this as ISDA is worried about the state of the bond market and is trying to move the goal posts to keep the game of musical chairs going.
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
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nortex97
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 4:28p, 3/17/24
AG
Thx again. Are you buying puts on that in a specific window?
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Bonfire.1996
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In reply to MRB10 • 5:38p, 3/17/24
Pepper Brooks said:
https://www.isda.org/a/h3sgE/ISDA-Submits-Letter-to-US-Agencies-on-SLR-Reform.pdf

Heineken/Bonfire - how big of a deal would changing regulations to exclude treasuries from the SLR be? I'm reading this as ISDA is worried about the state of the bond market and is trying to move the goal posts to keep the game of musical chairs going.
They already did this. They excluded themselves from margin calls on derivatives, because their liquidity is tied up in illiquid, underwater investments. This was dirty dirty dirty.

It's just another thumb on the scale of efficient markets. It's going to force something to break harder than it otherwise would.
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MRB10
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In reply to Bonfire.1996 • 6:16p, 3/17/24
AG
I just heard about it today, and don't remember seeing much/any news coverage on it, so I assumed it was still theoretical.

Talk about the game being rigged… in this case it looks more liked rigged to explode.
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:27p, 3/17/24
nortex97 said:
Thx again. Are you buying puts on that in a specific window?


If we get a clear 3-wave overlap move into one of those resistance areas, quite possibly. Ideally I'd want a downside setup to form. But if we get clear resistance into an earnings, I'll probably take a stab.

That said, if the action up starts to look like a lightning bolt, I might pivot from expecting a big drop to possibly a new ATH. But seeing as we already had an ending diagonal and exhaustion of bullishness, I'm not expecting it at this time. But I'll let the chart ultimately do the talking. I'll lean on probabilities while removing bias.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Bonfire.1996
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In reply to MRB10 • 7:01p, 3/17/24
Pepper Brooks said:
I just heard about it today, and don't remember seeing much/any news coverage on it, so I assumed it was still theoretical.

Talk about the game being rigged… in this case it looks more liked rigged to explode.
Yes, terrible.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to MRB10 • 7:33p, 3/17/24
Pepper Brooks said:
I just heard about it today, and don't remember seeing much/any news coverage on it, so I assumed it was still theoretical.

Talk about the game being rigged… in this case it looks more liked rigged to explode.
It's mostly to keep pumping the smoke and mirrors that "everything is fine" that gets reported in the media constantly.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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10:00p, 3/17/24
What was one of OA's most common lessons here in the early days and so many times in this thread?



Not only did we just have the biggest volume NQ futures days since October of last year. But it was actually the most, almost exactly, since the October 2022 bottom. 10/13/22 was 1,033,918 shares vs 3/8/24 was 1,035,986.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Charismatic Megafauna
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10:14p, 3/17/24
AG
What's the lesson? Those big buyers have now unloaded?
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 11:10p, 3/17/24
Charismatic Megafauna said:
What's the lesson? Those big buyers have now unloaded?
When OA mentioned goalposts back in the day, it was looking for huge volume spikes on beaten down stocks that mimicked each other signaling a bottom.

Well it's actually fairly common in a lot of different ways. The last two times NQ hit 1M daily volume marked a bottom either on the day or shortly after with major swings up coming afterward. The last time before those was Feb 2022 which put in a pause in the initial selloff from the 2021 top. It was followed by a quick spike, a return and double bottom, and then a third spike before selling off again. Before that was the highest volume in the last 3 years on Jan 2022 (it was actually two days in a row of 1M volume) which was also a temporary stop of a downtrend and short reversal.

Considering this one comes in an uptrend, there's a very good chance it is signaling big money OUT in some capacity. Either that, or we're about to get a blowoff top.

The COVID top and selloff came with 7 days in a row of 1M+ volume, the peak being two das in a row of 1.5M. But I'm not sure a normal market topping event would act like a once in a generation pandemic induced selloff. So not sure how relevant it is.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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11:19p, 3/17/24
Also, since 2018, when NQ has hit 16M volume on monthly candles it has trigered a significant reversal move the following 1-6 months. The last one that hit was October 2023, and we've been up ever since. So far this month, we have 8.3M. If the month ends at 16M, I think we're going down for a little while.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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nortex97
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 3:44a, 3/18/24
AG
She's starting to shimmy.
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AgCPA95
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:28a, 3/18/24
AG
nortex97 said:
She's starting to shimmy.


She's starting to shudder???
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Brian Earl Spilner
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7:16a, 3/18/24
AG
GOOGL looking damn good this am.

Bummed I didn't buy more at 132, but glad I got some.
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nortex97
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 7:43a, 3/18/24
AG
CLSK is off a hair in pre market this am. I am going to watch this one this week, and look for a buy opportunity.

Fed rate announcement is mid-week (wed) so that will impact the market/metals depending how it is received I think. If SPX has set to again trade inside of what the previous week's range was, my guess is the long awaited pull back happens. My guess is GLD and SILV both do well the next few weeks, but silver formed a temporary high just above 24.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 8:07a, 3/18/24
AG
I'm not sure i agree with goalposts on nq working the same as micro pharmas, but bring on the blow off top!
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Talon2DSO
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8:21a, 3/18/24
AG
Google is up 5.5% in premarket. That dip didn't last long
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 8:56a, 3/18/24
Charismatic Megafauna said:
I'm not sure i agree with goalposts on nq working the same as micro pharmas, but bring on the blow off top!
It's not a for sure indicator of anything. Could certainly have more to do with contract roll than anything. But the fact that the last two preceded significant push ups in price have me watching closely this week.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 9:14a, 3/18/24
AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:
I'm not sure i agree with goalposts on nq working the same as micro pharmas, but bring on the blow off top!
it is at least that time of year when we run up to the "stay away in May". There is a nice launch upward until then. I'm not saying history always repeats, but it just might.
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:19a, 3/18/24
Thinking about XLRE $39 calls again looking for 2x or XLRE $41. Risky though. No triggers yet. By the time one forms, 2x potential likely would be gone.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:48a, 3/18/24
TSLA looking good. $165 would be ideal to hold now on any pullbacks.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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texagbeliever
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10:06a, 3/18/24
NVDA below 900 signals a bearish outlook to me.
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