Grabbed some more LUV this morning for a medium to long term hold.

May not do what it did in 2020, but I sure as hell see more upside than downside risk at this price.

Targeting $38 or so.

I bleed maroon said:

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South Platte said:

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bigtoneag said:

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I bleed maroon said:

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LMCane said:

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all time high of 401K loans / early cashouts being taken by employees

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link?

If it's total $, whoop-dee-doo. If it's percentage-wise, it might be meaningful.

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https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/retirement/more-americans-are-treating-their-401-k-s-like-cash-machines-deaa3f8f?mod=personal-finance_lead_pos4

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Man. I can't imagine making that decision unless it was for a major home improvement. And that's what your Roth IRA contributions are for. I assume the 401k loans go to pay monthly credit card expenses, car loans, or for ski trips.

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I can't read the paywalled article, but the lead-in says it may be due to more automatic enrollment of employees in 401(k)s. Makes sense - - the ones who voluntarily signed up in the past were probably less likely to use loan provisions as they rightfully saw their accounts as retirement funding, but the incremental mandatory sign-ups might treat it more like a savings account.

Unless there is further insight in the article, I'll assume it's not a big new piece of information, especially as consumer debt is already climbing to all-time highs. It's just another symptom of our current economy.

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Here's an interesting note from the article...

"Nearly 40% of those who took a hardship distribution last year did so to avoid foreclosure, compared with 36% in 2022. In 2023, more than 75% of hardship distributions totaled $5,000 or less, according to Vanguard."

The majority of loans taken are very small so it's people that probably didn't even know they had money in a 401k to begin with.

Number Monkey said:

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URA finally showing some action. Let's see if this thing can start to perform!

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it's grinding upward with metals, doing exactly what we want in a weak market.

please!! would payoff my KOLD short calls that never seem to go down

Here goes VXX. Fun afternoon incoming?

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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If spy flushes to 508.1 (144 sma on hourly) I'm buying 0dtes with reckless abandon

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Close enough to take a flyer

Weekly MACD for SPY has now crossed over bearishly.

bought calls or puts??

I bought a spx 5120 call

Yall be careful. Lot of indicators getting bearish.

If VXX blows through $15 this could get bad fast.

I picked a bad time to unload CROX. It keeps going.

lotto time
NVDA 900C, expires today. in at 1.05

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Yall be careful. Lot of indicators getting bearish.

If VXX blows through $15 this could get bad fast.

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Time to go balls deep in UVXY calls!

YOLO!

I've been subscribing to Trade Ideas Swing picks which is a AI driven algo that gives 5 picks each Sunday for like $17 a month. So far I'm 3 weeks in and up 10% with the $ I've allocated to buying their picks. Each week being profitable so far.

How long do you think I should give it before considering it a somewhat stable strategy to invest more in?

GCT is going nuts. Sold $40 covered calls on half my shares. $45 on the other half. Both expiring today. At the open, neither were in danger. Bought the $40's back as it started rising and still made 60%. Didn't think the $45's would be at risk.

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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I bought a spx 5120 call

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I got paper hands and turned this into a free+ fly basically seconds before it decided to breakout. Now for the regret

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Regarding GRPN, there's a potential uptrend starting. If today's beer candle can keep away from indecision and get over $10.50, I could see buying shares with a stop at $9.50 should it resume the previous downtrend.

If you switch to weekly, you can see a longert-term uptrend is in the process of being formed with a lot of work to do, as it's only two candles so far, only one of which is not an indecision.

Quote:

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Groupon said Tuesday it commenced an $80 million rights offering.
Under the offering, shareholders will receive the right to purchase 0.222257 share at a subscription price of $11.30 per share.
The rights offering expires Jan. 17 and is fully backstopped by Pale Fire Capital, an entity affiliated with the company's interim Chief Executive Officer Dusan Senkypl and Jan Barta, a member of the board.
Any shares that are unsubscribed by the expiration date will be purchased by Pale Fire Capital once the rights offering ends.
Funds raised will be used for general corporate purposes, including the repayment of debt, the company said.

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Quote:

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• The company intends to use the proceeds from the rights offering for general corporate purposes, which may include the repayment of debt.

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What's happening fundamentally is the company has slowing revenues and cost of funds to bolster a weakening balance sheet has been high. The company is in the middle of a cost cutting campaign. One of the cofounders stepped down recently. Bears are circling. Talk has shifted to "focusing on a top line approach" which means sales and revenue. So with the recent CEO backed offering, the company obviously feels like the bottom line has been addressed as much as possible, whether good or bad. Unless rates come screaming down, there won't be anything else to do on that front. So the only option is to try and grow the top line. But can they? Does anyone use Groupon anymore? Is this a dying company? Who knows.

Now let's talk technical. I already briefed above on the current uptrend that is trying to form. But let's go back. We're talking about a company that has been in a downtrend since IPO with some shorter uptrend bounces sprinkled within. And like other small cap discretionary stocks, it was beaten to hell with the rise in interest rates and the deterioration of the decade long bull market and endless growth outlook. You really have to switch to logarithmic charting to see the picture. The most recent downtrend started in February 2021 and bottomed out in May 2023. The 50% correction level for that would be $33.79 on a linear scale, but $13.79 if calculated logarithmically. One of those has been achieved already and commissioned a reversal that recently took on a gap down. That gap is in the mid $13's. I like this to eventually close that gap at a minimum, and to form a mini cup in the low $30's at best. And we're entering Christmas Santa rally season.

I'm a share buyer if I engage, mainly due to the price and target levels. 1,000 shares at the $10.50 level once beer candles confirm, and a sale of 75-80% at the gap fill, would get you risk free access to 200-250 shares in which to wait for a potential higher target. But a stop is important. I'd be at $9.50 if engaged at current levels or higher. Because if it triggers, you know you'll be able to get back in likely a little lower, or be glad you got out. Ultimate stop would be the recent low in the $8 range.

For calls, the most two recent big drops had virtually matching volume spikes. Yall know what that means since they were preceded by overbought signals. Out and back in for smart money. If we get another spike that matches those, it's likely bearish. But if it surpasses, it's potentially bullish, and price is likely moving up. If this forms an uptrend with volume averaging 1M daily or less, it's likely building toward a spike of some sort. Watch for volume to form the left side of a U shape (already in the process) similar to the shape between the previous two spikes. Once the right side of that U starts to form, assuming price is holding support, that's where you start looking for calls. Can't tell you what to buy yet, but it would likely be ATM 3-months out at that time.

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I posted this back in November. Came up to just over $19, well short of target, and dumped. I can't rule out this drop to the mid $12.50 being a support zone in log scale and a renewed run starting that would take it back up. Target zone from here would be $23.50 - $30. So good R/R if it can bounce next week.

But this has completed enough of an upward structure to be considered finished. It's had a 10 month run fueled by hope that rates will be dropping and that they would fuel increased transaction volume and sale valuations. Recent data and potential for higher for longer is what's killing them here as their business outlook continues to flutter in the high rate environment. If a top is in, expect a 6-12 month drop to $6 - $7.50 range. The current top being in scenario would be a bit of a truncated topping action technically, so I'm truly not sold either way. Below $9.50 and I will move toward a full AVOID on this one.

Looks like a big buy at the close today for Academy. Possible optimism going into earnings next week? I've been in it for a long time and saw several big price target changes recently into the 80's. Still love them for a long term hold.

giddings_ag_06 said:

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Looks like a big buy at the close today for Academy. Possible optimism going into earnings next week? I've been in it for a long time and saw several big price target changes recently into the 80's. Still love them for a long term hold.

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$80-$90, but wouldn't be surprised if it goes to $100+

Prog Saw your note on FSLY… hold but not adding more. What's your thoughts on SNOW? It's about -10% since purchase. You continuing to load up or holding for now?

I think you all get a bounce there at 150. It looks like it has a history of closing gaps and then ripping. July of '22 must've been fun, closed a gap at 130, then ripped for 50 points.

Thanks Prog and Brew! I'll follow suit on 2nd purchase if it gets to those levels.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/15/laid-off-techies-struggle-to-find-jobs-with-cuts-at-highest-since-2001.html

Quote:

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Allison Croisant, a data scientist with about a decade of experience in technology, was laid off by PayPal
earlier this year, joining the masses of unemployed across her industry. Croisant has one word to describe the process of looking for a job right now: "Insane."

"Everybody else is also getting laid off," said Croisant, who lives in Omaha, Nebraska, where she worked remotely for PayPal.

Her sentiment is reflected in the numbers. Since the start of the year, more than 50,000 workers have been laid off from over 200 tech companies, according to tracking website Layoffs.fyi. It's a continuation of the predominant theme of 2023, when more than 260,000 workers across nearly 1,200 tech companies lost their jobs.

Alphabet
, Amazon
, Meta
and Microsoft
have all taken part in the downsizing this year, along with eBay
, Unity Software
, SAP
and Cisco
. Wall Street has largely cheered on the cost-cutting, sending many tech stocks to record highs on optimism that spending discipline coupled with efficiency gains from artificial intelligence will lead to rising profits. PayPal announced in January that it was eliminating 9% of its workforce, or about 2,500 jobs.

For the tens of thousands of people in Croisant's position, the path toward reemployment is daunting. All told, 2023 was the second-biggest year of cuts on record in the technology sector, behind only the dot-com crash in 2001, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Not since the spectacular flameouts of Pets.com, eToys and Webvan have so many tech workers lost their jobs in such a short period of time.

Last month's job cut count was the highest of any February since 2009, when the financial crisis forced companies into cash preservation mode

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FYI, stories like this are becoming a trend and look at them as canaries in the coal mine.