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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to South Platte • 4:13p, 3/14/24
South Platte said:
Were you the poster than had a collection of rental properties and subscribed to the BRRRR philosophy?
I believe you are thinking of either pookie or Red Pear.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
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South Platte
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 4:23p, 3/14/24
Neither of those. Oh well. That poster had a high risk tolerance but was really insightful about rental properties.
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El_duderino
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4:48p, 3/14/24
AAPL with the 20 and now 50 just crossed the 200SMA
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to El_duderino • 4:53p, 3/14/24
AG
That bullish or bearish?
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 5:08p, 3/14/24
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
That bullish or bearish?
bullish, chart also looks like a cup and handle (1 hr over the last week). plus the 8 crossed above the 21 earlier today.
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Heineken-Ashi
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5:12p, 3/14/24
Speaking of triangles, check out where ADBE hit on the earnings selloff. If that can hold and turn up, $700+ could be on the horizon. I'd certainly wait for confirmation of a bottom before entering. But it's a promising potential.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to South Platte • 5:18p, 3/14/24
South Platte said:
Neither of those. Oh well. That poster had a high risk tolerance but was really insightful about rental properties.
I've spent my entire career in RE and investing. Maybe you are referring to me. But while I personally agree about BRRR, I don't think I've ever said I'm necessarily a proponent of it. Mainly because it all depends on the last R, refinance. And the days of being able to magically pull out immense equity due to falling rates and exploding valuations might be over. We're at a time where entry price and strategy execution is more important than ever.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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El_duderino
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In reply to Brewmaster • 5:20p, 3/14/24
I was going to say bearish, especially with both the 20 and now 50 crossing the 200 on the daily. The 200 is also starting to move down ever so slightly.
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El_duderino
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 5:29p, 3/14/24
Slightly lowered guidance, beat earnings, stock buyback, and the stock is getting absolutely hammered. Am I missing something?
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ProgN
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5:33p, 3/14/24
Ok, gang, I haven't been active because I just don't like this market right now (I wasn't in banned camp). Here's just a few things off the top of my head why I'm reluctant to play or initiate new positions at the moment. My cash pile looks better.

  • The market is just ignoring any negative news like CPI, PPI, Jobs etc. being stronger than expected and rising, thus lessoning the number of rate cuts.
  • Firms just keep raising PTs on stocks that, like Mazag posted earlier, they hit in three months from their last PT increase.
  • Selling by insiders is off the charts and at record levels at most corporations. Yes, insiders sell for many reasons, but this is happening across many many different stocks and industries. They didn't become C suite execs by luck, they know business P/L.
  • Layoffs are also extremely high across all industries and rising.
  • The 10 yr is almost 4.3%
  • Oil is $80 brl and gas increasing
  • A friend in here mentions his shipping costs rising, this will pass down to consumers (inflation)
  • Food and energy are killing the middle and lower class
  • Credit card and auto loan delinquencies are rapidly rising which will culminate in defaults
  • Bonfire stresses that a regional bank crisis could be imminent
  • We add $1 TRILLION to our national debt every 100 days
  • Debt service last month (February) was $73 BILLION, up 67% YoY. In 12 months, debt service will exceed our defense spending at a time that the likelihood we're in a war soon is high.
  • Although it won't currently pass, Biden proposed a budget north of $7.3 Trillion.
  • The Fed has a considerable amount of debt about to come due that will have to be refinanced at a much higher rate.
  • Countries aren't buying our garbage paper so it's going to take very high rates for them re-enter the market.
  • If the Dems win the WH, House & Senate, then they will not only let the Trump tax cuts expire, they will add more taxes on top of that. If they are able tax unrealized gains on billionaires, don't think that they will not include all of us once they get their nose under the tent.
  • They also plan to tax corporate stock buybacks because it rewards investors. If they're successful, Wall Street will not like it if buybacks evaporate.
  • Progressives are also eyeing your 401Ks/IRAs as well because of the trillions that are there. They're just trying to find a legal way to get to them.

These are just off the top of my head and feel free to list any that you see that I have missed.

TL;DR: Just consider these headwinds before you give into FOMO and find yourselves too exposed in stocks, especially high beta stocks. Also, DON'T USE MARGIN, and if you're on margin then get your asses off margin. I'm not preaching, I just don't want anyone to blowup their accounts.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to ProgN • 5:45p, 3/14/24
One more to add

Corporate debt wall is approaching. Between now and a year from now billions in corporate debt has to be refinanced at rates 2-4x what it was before.

Like I said a couple months ago. Fed is up against a wall with zero options. And they know it.

  • Keep rates high or raise rates = kill regional banks, CRE (entire housing market will be affected), and debt riddled corporations. Also deepens the losses of the FED and risks even worse financial calamity in the future.
  • Lower rates marginally = lipstick on a pig. Might kick the can slightly. Doesn't solve anything. Same problems tomorrow as today.
  • Slash rates in half or lower = Save assets and corporations encumbered by debt but create the next wave of massive inflation. Rich get richer and poor get poorer at a time where the imbalance between the two is at historic levels. It will be 2022 again within 1-3 years but on a 5x scale.

Powell has said publicly that some regional banks will go under. This indicates the FED is going to keep rates higher longer and do option 1. But he talks out of both sides of his mouth, and historically, when push comes to shove, the FED always does everything in its power to protect banks. If the recourse from option 1 starts stinking too bad, they immediately switch to option 2 and the entire house of cards will fall.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Anastasia Beaverhaven
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In reply to ProgN • 5:50p, 3/14/24
ProgN said:
Ok, gang, I haven't been active because I just don't like this market right now (I wasn't in banned camp). Here's just a few things off the top of my head why I'm reluctant to play or initiate new positions at the moment. My cash pile looks better.

  • The market is just ignoring any negative news like CPI, PPI, Jobs etc. being stronger than expected and rising, thus lessoning the number of rate cuts.
  • Firms just keep raising PTs on stocks that, like Mazag posted earlier, they hit in three months from their last PT increase.
  • Selling by insiders is off the charts and at record levels at most corporations. Yes, insiders sell for many reasons, but this is happening across many many different stocks and industries. They didn't become C suite execs by luck, they know business P/L.
  • Layoffs are also extremely high across all industries and rising.
  • The 10 yr is almost 4.3%
  • Oil is $80 brl and gas increasing
  • A friend in here mentions his shipping costs rising, this will pass down to consumers (inflation)
  • Food and energy are killing the middle and lower class
  • Credit card and auto loan delinquencies are rapidly rising which will culminate in defaults
  • Bonfire stresses that a regional bank crisis could be imminent
  • We add $1 TRILLION to our national debt every 100 days
  • Debt service last month (February) was $73 BILLION, up 67% YoY. In 12 months, debt service will exceed our defense spending at a time that the likelihood we're in a war soon is high.
  • Although it won't currently pass, Biden proposed a budget north of $7.3 Trillion.
  • The Fed has a considerable amount of debt about to come due that will have to be refinanced at a much higher rate.
  • Countries aren't buying our garbage paper so it's going to take very high rates for them re-enter the market.
  • If the Dems win the WH, House & Senate, then they will not only let the Trump tax cuts expire, they will add more taxes on top of that. If they are able tax unrealized gains on billionaires, don't think that they will not include all of us once they get their nose under the tent.
  • They also plan to tax corporate stock buybacks because it rewards investors. If they're successful, Wall Street will not like it if buybacks evaporate.
  • Progressives are also eyeing your 401Ks/IRAs as well because of the trillions that are there. They're just trying to find a legal way to get to them.

These are just off the top of my head and feel free to list any that you see that I have missed.

TL;DR: Just consider these headwinds before you give into FOMO and find yourselves too exposed in stocks, especially high beta stocks. Also, DON'T USE MARGIN, and if you're on margin then get your asses off margin. I'm not preaching, I just don't want anyone to blowup their accounts.

Im with you here. How do we play the market? Its tough to bet against your own team/country but is VXX a viable 1-2 year play to increase portfolios in your opinion?

Anyone is welcome to chime in. VXX is at yearly lows.
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ProgN
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In reply to Anastasia Beaverhaven • 6:06p, 3/14/24
I've never traded the VXX so I'll defer to others that have on that one.

It's hard to short against a momentum driven market like this one and will rollover you if your timing is off, but when the music stops, you don't want to be the one without a chair.

The rally in commodities, especially gold & silver is another big indicator. I know absolutely dick about crypto so others with more knowledge can opine, but it's parabolic move is also because it's seen as a safe haven. I put some of my money into gold (I take possession of it too), but I'm old and more comfortable with gold than bitcoin.

Right now, cash is also a position and I've been building that up too.

Sometimes the best trade is not to make one.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Anastasia Beaverhaven • 6:13p, 3/14/24
VXX is for short term. It decays constantly when there's not increased volatility. So you have to wait for setups. Look for VXX making higher lows and higher highs and equities hitting their head. We might be starting a period of that here, but VXX is the tell.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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ktownag08
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In reply to ProgN • 6:41p, 3/14/24
AG
ProgN said:


Sometimes the best trade is not to make one.



Deserved another call out as so true!
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Heineken-Ashi
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6:42p, 3/14/24
Here's a common sense chart. When you see VXX start to trend up, check out SPX.. if its going sideways or trending down, there's likely a short setup to be had. Won't always work, but when it does, it can be a banger for profits.

August-November 2023
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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ravingfans
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9:54p, 3/14/24
AG
I'm missing something here on UNG Apr26 '24 17c's that I bought a couple days ago. In my portfolio view I paid $.85 on 3/11 and the last price shows as $.85, yet I have a total gain of $1,694.89 and value of $2,550. How can I have such a gain when the price is same as what I bought?

Is this a glitch in the matrix and how do I cash in?

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GreasenUSA
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In reply to ravingfans • 9:59p, 3/14/24
AG
What was the bid/ask spread on those at close? Etrade will calculate unrealized gains based on the halfway point between bid and ask. Maybe they backed off the ask right at the end of day.

ETA:



I really hope that's what happened, but otherwise, this appears to be a really thin strike that is going to be tough to sell for profit unless UNG gets above 17 soon.
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ravingfans
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In reply to GreasenUSA • 11:46p, 3/14/24
AG
Ah, got it thanks! Flash in the pan. Prob will close this out tomorrow then.
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EngrAg14
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1:22a, 3/15/24
AG
Just noticed there hasn't been 3 sell days in a row except the start of this run up and a very middling box that occured 1/11~12 (thur/fri) and into 16th (monday).
High then 478.6
Low 472.26

This is the same if we can hit below 508 (imo), and I only see that as a sell into Close opposite of what's occured the last two days. Which makes me think if we open up we will close low sub 510 / if we open low of flat we close high $517.
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Heineken-Ashi
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8:06a, 3/15/24
If AAPL can hold $171 on a move down, it will be a good short term entry for a move to $175-$177 range next week.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Charismatic Megafauna
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8:14a, 3/15/24
AG
Sw@ggy says today's max pain on tsla is 180, could be a good lotto
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Heineken-Ashi
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8:18a, 3/15/24
Still think we see RBLX $36. Any lower and it might swing all the way down to mid $20's keeping a sideways Darvas box.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 8:27a, 3/15/24
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Sw@ggy says today's max pain on tsla is 180, could be a good lotto
It's actually kind of funny. Things tend to be fractal. What I mean, is that a smaller move might hold the same general pattern as a larger move.

Look at TSLA on daily candles. Start with the 2021 ATH. Notice the path it takes, the highs and lows along the way, to the Jan 2023 bottom.

Keep that pattern in mind. Now look at the July 2023 high. Notice the pattern it takes to yesteray's low. It's the general same pattern on a smaller scale.

Bottom is in?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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8:32a, 3/15/24
I just sold an April TSLA $160 put and got $9.00.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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LMCane
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In reply to ProgN • 8:34a, 3/15/24
all time high of 401K loans / early cashouts being taken by employees
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I bleed maroon
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In reply to LMCane • 8:42a, 3/15/24
AG
LMCane said:
all time high of 401K loans / early cashouts being taken by employees
link?

If it's total $, whoop-dee-doo. If it's percentage-wise, it might be meaningful.
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texagbeliever
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9:06a, 3/15/24
I have QQQ, breaking below the bottom of the upward channel it has been on.
AMZN at 175 and APPL at 171 or just below.

Appears to be a bearish setup to me.
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bigtoneag
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In reply to I bleed maroon • 9:10a, 3/15/24
AG
I bleed maroon said:
LMCane said:
all time high of 401K loans / early cashouts being taken by employees
link?

If it's total $, whoop-dee-doo. If it's percentage-wise, it might be meaningful.
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/retirement/more-americans-are-treating-their-401-k-s-like-cash-machines-deaa3f8f?mod=personal-finance_lead_pos4
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Brian Earl Spilner
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9:42a, 3/15/24
AG
We gonna close green today?
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Charismatic Megafauna
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9:47a, 3/15/24
AG
If spy flushes to 508.1 (144 sma on hourly) I'm buying 0dtes with reckless abandon
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South Platte
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In reply to bigtoneag • 9:55a, 3/15/24
bigtoneag said:
I bleed maroon said:
LMCane said:
all time high of 401K loans / early cashouts being taken by employees
link?

If it's total $, whoop-dee-doo. If it's percentage-wise, it might be meaningful.
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/retirement/more-americans-are-treating-their-401-k-s-like-cash-machines-deaa3f8f?mod=personal-finance_lead_pos4
Man. I can't imagine making that decision unless it was for a major home improvement. And that's what your Roth IRA contributions are for. I assume the 401k loans go to pay monthly credit card expenses, car loans, or for ski trips.
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:55a, 3/15/24
Be careful. Today is quad witching with FED and VIX opex next week.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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I bleed maroon
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In reply to South Platte • 10:03a, 3/15/24
AG
South Platte said:
bigtoneag said:
I bleed maroon said:
LMCane said:
all time high of 401K loans / early cashouts being taken by employees
link?

If it's total $, whoop-dee-doo. If it's percentage-wise, it might be meaningful.
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/retirement/more-americans-are-treating-their-401-k-s-like-cash-machines-deaa3f8f?mod=personal-finance_lead_pos4
Man. I can't imagine making that decision unless it was for a major home improvement. And that's what your Roth IRA contributions are for. I assume the 401k loans go to pay monthly credit card expenses, car loans, or for ski trips.
I can't read the paywalled article, but the lead-in says it may be due to more automatic enrollment of employees in 401(k)s. Makes sense - - the ones who voluntarily signed up in the past were probably less likely to use loan provisions as they rightfully saw their accounts as retirement funding, but the incremental mandatory sign-ups might treat it more like a savings account.

Unless there is further insight in the article, I'll assume it's not a big new piece of information, especially as consumer debt is already climbing to all-time highs. It's just another symptom of our current economy.
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Number Monkey
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10:14a, 3/15/24
AG
URA finally showing some action. Let's see if this thing can start to perform!
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