Market is so close to a top. But today did a lot to reset for a push higher
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Last: 6 hrs ago by flashplayer
Hadn't done options before but this sounded good, bought one first thing at 82. End of day they were 71 - if they were good at 82, they're even better at 71 right? So bought another.Heineken-Ashi said:
Saw a post on another board about SLV during the last two presidential elections. 2016 ran to nearly $20 in August from bottom of $13, or around $14 in March. 2020 ran to nearly $30 in August from just under $11 in March. We're currently not even to $22 from a 2024 bottom around $20.
$25 calls are 82 cents in September. $30 would be a 500%+ gain and $40 would be a 1700%+ gain. 30 calls would be about $2k and would net between $15k and $45k if this performs similarly.
I'm strongly considering it. Might even do 50 contracts.
Minor play, but for a stock buy/hold guy, felt good for my first option play. We'll see in Sept!
I didn't get my order filled. But as long as overnight action holds $21.50 and can show signs of reversal back up, I'll probably buy in the morning.NateDog said:Hadn't done options before but this sounded good, bought one first thing at 82. End of day they were 71 - if they were good at 82, they're even better at 71 right? So bought another.Heineken-Ashi said:
Saw a post on another board about SLV during the last two presidential elections. 2016 ran to nearly $20 in August from bottom of $13, or around $14 in March. 2020 ran to nearly $30 in August from just under $11 in March. We're currently not even to $22 from a 2024 bottom around $20.
$25 calls are 82 cents in September. $30 would be a 500%+ gain and $40 would be a 1700%+ gain. 30 calls would be about $2k and would net between $15k and $45k if this performs similarly.
I'm strongly considering it. Might even do 50 contracts.
Minor play, but for a stock buy/hold guy, felt good for my first option play. We'll see in Sept!
PLTR wins share of TITAN Army contract.
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/3c5d922a-4c89-3bdc-bf9f-a234b2b425f1/palantir-wins-u-s-army.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/3c5d922a-4c89-3bdc-bf9f-a234b2b425f1/palantir-wins-u-s-army.html
Up $2 PM already
Appreciate this. I played the same. These will pay at the open.BlueTaze said:
JD might be a good lotto play or swing trade into earnings tonight. Beaten down Chinese retailer trading near cash on hand, a strong report could squeeze. Looks like some historical support in $20-21 range, possible double bottom W.
I went with March 15 $24 calls @ .45
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Charismatic Megafauna said:
I placed an extended hours short sell for one contract at 370, a sell to close for 25 on one to try and catch an opening pop, then holding the rest and see what happens. They're 3/15 expiry
Welp guess these aren't gonna work. Gonna try and sell 2 for at open for 16 and get my capital back + then see what happens with the other 2
Edit: 18.7 on those, riding 2 free ++
A big baller like OA would have short sold 100 shares per contract up there at 372. Little guys like me can't do it.Charismatic Megafauna said:Charismatic Megafauna said:
I placed an extended hours short sell for one contract at 370, a sell to close for 25 on one to try and catch an opening pop, then holding the rest and see what happens. They're 3/15 expiry
Welp guess these aren't gonna work. Gonna try and sell 2 for at open for 16 and get my capital back + then see what happens with the other 2
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Apparently i have enough margin to do at least one, or it will allow me to because of the long calls. Placed the order to short with a limit of 370 but it had already peaked and didn't revisit
got stopped out of CRWD at $305 after trimming last couple days--wanted to protect profits.
after hours it is up to $360, ugh.
after hours it is up to $360, ugh.
so AAPL is NOT the largest company in the world by market cap.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Somehow I don't think the largest company in the world by market cap is going anywhere.
Microsoft
as I stated, MSFT and Amazon and META were the top picks with NVIDIA (now 3rd in the world in market cap passing Saudi Aramco)
they all were fading Google/Alphabet and Apple.
I'm just reporting what they said.
UNFI continues to trend downward. Earnings report wasn't good.
POWL model T off this big move is about $137... Might be a good place for reentry.
tons of flow on it this morning, looks like it wants to complete that cup to 29 or so (on the weekly back to 2021).confucius_ag said:
PLTR wins share of TITAN Army contract.
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/3c5d922a-4c89-3bdc-bf9f-a234b2b425f1/palantir-wins-u-s-army.html
edited to reply: good deal!fightintxag13 said:
UNFI continues to trend downward. Earnings report wasn't good.
I've had a problem with playing stops too aggressively of late, and it's cost me. I'm still sticking to Heineken's original stop of 12.75. I went with a smaller size position in it anyways, so I'm not risking too much account value by giving it a chance to reverse.Brewmaster said:are you stopped out or still in? Heineken posted a warning about this one a couple pages back, didn't look good. Make sure to have an exit plan on these.fightintxag13 said:
UNFI continues to trend downward. Earnings report wasn't good.
Edit: It's trying to put in an intraday reversal now.
Heineken plays: (at least the recent ones and ones I'm watching closest).
PLUG - waiting for 3.50 to enter. If you see PLUG $3.50 this week or early next, buy it with stop at $3.25 and sell at $4.50.
$1.00 reward against $0.25 risk. Can possibly set stop at $3.40 for even better risk odds, but that might be too tight and could invalidate while the play ultimately works out.
SLV - options play, $25 calls are 82 cents in September. $30 would be a 500%+ gain and $40 would be a 1700%+ gain. 30 calls would be about $2k and would net between $15k and $45k if this performs similarly.
I'm strongly considering it. Might even do 50 contracts.
RBLX - still looking for the mid $30's. $36 is prime target right now. If we get it and it bounces off, I'm looking for $50 as target. Want to see it bottom and reverse though.
REE - still in as long as it holds trend line.
BLDE - I'm likely jumping out at $3.75 with stop moving up to today's low $3.30. This is way too choppy for me to be confident in seeing the $4's or $5's, and this one has a history of wild down swings when making higher lows on the daily. If we get to earnings with neither happening, it will be a tough decision on whether to let it ride and take the chance of a dump or to go risk off.
MARA - $18-$20 range will be key support if it breaks lower. Below that, and $15-$16 starts to feel real good.
Heard this morning that the high volume the other day might have been a large portion of that shelf offering being offloaded. $1.5M at yesterdays close prices would have been 58M shares and 119M shares traded yesterday. If that shelf is being offloaded now, it could be done in a matter of days instead of the months that would be normally expected.
PLUG - waiting for 3.50 to enter. If you see PLUG $3.50 this week or early next, buy it with stop at $3.25 and sell at $4.50.
$1.00 reward against $0.25 risk. Can possibly set stop at $3.40 for even better risk odds, but that might be too tight and could invalidate while the play ultimately works out.
SLV - options play, $25 calls are 82 cents in September. $30 would be a 500%+ gain and $40 would be a 1700%+ gain. 30 calls would be about $2k and would net between $15k and $45k if this performs similarly.
I'm strongly considering it. Might even do 50 contracts.
RBLX - still looking for the mid $30's. $36 is prime target right now. If we get it and it bounces off, I'm looking for $50 as target. Want to see it bottom and reverse though.
REE - still in as long as it holds trend line.
BLDE - I'm likely jumping out at $3.75 with stop moving up to today's low $3.30. This is way too choppy for me to be confident in seeing the $4's or $5's, and this one has a history of wild down swings when making higher lows on the daily. If we get to earnings with neither happening, it will be a tough decision on whether to let it ride and take the chance of a dump or to go risk off.
MARA - $18-$20 range will be key support if it breaks lower. Below that, and $15-$16 starts to feel real good.
Heard this morning that the high volume the other day might have been a large portion of that shelf offering being offloaded. $1.5M at yesterdays close prices would have been 58M shares and 119M shares traded yesterday. If that shelf is being offloaded now, it could be done in a matter of days instead of the months that would be normally expected.
I really need to trust my profit target. Second time in a week I've lowered it quickly and sold before it ends up hitting my target. Still made a profit, but leaving money on the table because I'm being impatient and not following my plan
Foot Locker down 27 percent.
Now I'm stopped out.fightintxag13 said:I've had a problem with playing stops too aggressively of late, and it's cost me. I'm still sticking to Heineken's original stop of 12.75. I went with a smaller size position in it anyways, so I'm not risking too much account value by giving it a chance to reverse.Brewmaster said:are you stopped out or still in? Heineken posted a warning about this one a couple pages back, didn't look good. Make sure to have an exit plan on these.fightintxag13 said:
UNFI continues to trend downward. Earnings report wasn't good.
Edit: It's trying to put in an intraday reversal now.
yeah, been watching UNFI and it just pushed strong through the stop
Bought Apr 110 calls in XOM at 1.61 average last week when it moved above 105. Up 33% right now. Hopefully have room to get to 110 now that has moved above the late November to March box it has been stuck in.
It's as if the market makers love poetry...fightintxag13 said:fightintxag13 said:
I'm keeping an eye on KR. It's approaching $50 and it has gotten rejected in that area 6 times, including one failed breakout, going back to August 2022. I will likely by medium-term puts if it gets above $50 and is rejected again.
Edit: It also got rejected there in Jan 2022. It's clearly a very strong resistance level.
KR hit above 50. I entered the 3/22 $49 puts. I was a little delayed to get to it after the alert went off so I got them at $1.00.
Edit to add: I'm on mobile so I can't look at the chart as east today, but I know at least 2 of those previous rejections were on earnings. They have earnings this Thursday before the market.
KR is right at resistance level, and wouldn't you know it, earnings is tomorrow morning.
If you wanted to enter these now they would be very low risk for today, but don't carry too many contracts into earnings. My stop is if KR hits 50.55. (Would be ~$.80 on the 3/22 $49 put price).
R/R on the 3/22 $49 puts is easily 100% and could be as high as 500% based off of previous rejections at this level.
NYCB needs cash. Just like I predicted. This is a liquidity crisis, and they cannot offload assets to raise cash because they are not tradable in a loss position. The assets would return too little liquidity after realizing losses, that additional capital ratios would be tripped, causing the need for more liquidity, and more losses realized, and more capital required, etc.
Domino effect.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nycb-crashes-fresh-28-year-highs-report-need-cash-infusion
Other small banks are in the same boat. A reckoning is coming unless the FED bails them out with a pre-mature drop in rates.
Domino effect.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nycb-crashes-fresh-28-year-highs-report-need-cash-infusion
Other small banks are in the same boat. A reckoning is coming unless the FED bails them out with a pre-mature drop in rates.
How can you play this? Rocket Mortgage (RKT) will rocket higher if the 10 year bond tumbles. The 10 year bond will tumble, farther than market forces would normally push it, if the FED drops rates prematurely. If the FED drops rates prematurely, the smart people will recognize a bail out, and they will know the FED is no longer interested in inflation, but is interested in the overall financial stability of the USA. That means an eventual return to ZIRP and a Japan style fiscal policy.
RKT leaps are the play.
RKT leaps are the play.
nice find Philip, this one's moving a bit. 131+ now, up from 129 and change entry.Philip J Fry said:
THG has been in a nice channel and currently at the lower channel boundary. Could be a relatively quick 10% move if it holds.
Great info as always sir
ZIRP as in zero interest rate policy?! inflation would then moon, correct? and those that own equity in something, whether it be real estate, stocks, metals? etc. will benefit.
county taxes are looking more and more appealing.
ZIRP as in zero interest rate policy?! inflation would then moon, correct? and those that own equity in something, whether it be real estate, stocks, metals? etc. will benefit.
county taxes are looking more and more appealing.
Bonfire.1996 said:
How can you play this? Rocket Mortgage (RKT) will rocket higher if the 10 year bond tumbles. The 10 year bond will tumble, farther than market forces would normally push it, if the FED drops rates prematurely. If the FED drops rates prematurely, the smart people will recognize a bail out, and they will know the FED is no longer interested in inflation, but is interested in the overall financial stability of the USA. That means an eventual return to ZIRP and a Japan style fiscal policy.
RKT leaps are the play.
time to load up!
Seems like Powell just said something...
Fade the 1st move.
I think it has to do with the Houthi rebel attack on a ship that killed some crew members and the rest abandoned ship. The first deaths in their attacks. This will escalate things significantly. Let me rephrase, it has the potential to.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Seems like Powell just said something...
Trailing buy entered for TNA.
Fed comes out and says "unemployment needs to significantly increase for rate drops to be sped up"Bonfire.1996 said:
How can you play this? Rocket Mortgage (RKT) will rocket higher if the 10 year bond tumbles. The 10 year bond will tumble, farther than market forces would normally push it, if the FED drops rates prematurely. If the FED drops rates prematurely, the smart people will recognize a bail out, and they will know the FED is no longer interested in inflation, but is interested in the overall financial stability of the USA. That means an eventual return to ZIRP and a Japan style fiscal policy.
RKT leaps are the play.
Opinion of one analyst based on Powell's testimony today is that the first rate cut could be delayed to end of year.
That would mean lotsa dominoes, eh Bonfire?
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NYCB failing is not a good sign for Office or Multifamily Real Estate.
hasn't he been saying that all along? Market just didn't want to listen
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