It has. I'm worried she'll think she can pick stocks on emotion/feel now, though. On the other hand, if you walk in a place and think the concept has potential then having access to invest in it is a great thing.

ProgN said:

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I feel horrible that POWL and SMCI went parabolic and I sold much lower, but still made a good profit. Those stocks are anomalies. Be honest, who here ever even knew about those two stocks before I posted them? I know Chef Elko did, but he was a lurker at the time, so he didn't. I wish he would've been the first when it was $30.

This isn't a pity party, but I do feel like I've let some in here down because they sold when I said I was and they see both launch into orbit with their vapor trails flashing two huge middle fingers. They will both comeback to reality when the market rolls over because of their small float. When that happens, everyone should feel confident to re-enter them in size. I know I will because when they pullback and I reload a huge position, then I'll ride again. Those two are life changing opportunities when they correct.

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No, you didn't let anyone down. Besides, no one ever went broke by cashing in gains. Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered. Buck up, Buckaroo, cause I can keep the platitudes coming for days.

1) More ideas are great
2) Everyone's responsible for their own actions; no one should expect to be spoon-fed
3) Trade timing is best left to the individual situation for each trader

ProgN said:

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RightWingConspirator said:

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Yup, I made a huge mistake dumping my shares of POWL at $120. I now realize that buy and hold investors should not take advice from trading investors.

Hope that does not come across negatively…they just have different motivations. This one kills me.

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You're making an assumption that buy and hold outperforms actively managing your account with 2 stocks that have been unicorns during a period of irrational exuberance. This weekend, look at several 5-10 year charts on stocks and see where you'd be. Then look at those same charts and buy/sell when the charts told you to. Go 25/75 method. That's 25% above the bottom and and 25% from the top because you'll never pick either perfectly, play in the middle. Also, realize that the number of shares on your re-buy will be higher because you rolled the profits for the next wave. That method of compounding grows your account exponentially.

Please include ROKU on 12/26/18 at $30, the day I bought it with the first purchase in my son's account. I sold it at $200, then it went to $400 and now it's at $63 in 5 years with no splits or dividends. I'd have doubled his money but since that sell. Over the last 2 weeks he's bought 100 shares of PANW at $275 and 100 shrs of SNOW today at $184. I haven't added any funds except a refund from the IRS of $1,800 so please don't discourage people for driving to learn how to do the same for their families because of 2 unicorns. I've proven it is definitely possible over many years.

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Case in point, one of my buy and hold accounts with started out at $100k in 2020/2021 is only down $7k right now because I experimented by buying $25k of SPY during the big V and about a year ago $10K of TSLA AT $145/share. Without those it would be about a $50K loss in that account, and those were just blind luck shots I took.

The unicorns are awesome if you can see the future perfectly. For the rest of us, we need to be able to test theories, make some mistakes and learn. My $10k account is now up $1500 since Jan 1 currently while I have missed several signals because work keeps me too busy. If I was able to follow all the action on here, believe I would be up another $1000 easily.

I can't say how much I appreciate all you guys sharing your knowledge and paying forward your wisdom to me. Heineken and ProgN are the two most vocal, but the rest of you guys share quite a bit also--thank you all!

RightWingConspirator said:

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Yup, I made a huge mistake dumping my shares of POWL at $120. I now realize that buy and hold investors should not take advice from trading investors.

Hope that does not come across negatively…they just have different motivations. This one kills me.

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No you didn't. You can't think that way. How many times have you held something too long and it get crushed? Do you even remember 2022?

CELEBRATE your wins. There will ALWAYS be more opportunities. And those won't be the last stocks that rocket. I caught AMD on a big earnings rocket last year and sold before the top. Nobody is perfect. But winning is NEVER a mistake. Now just work to limit losses and learn to identify potential setups for new wins.

We're all constantly getting better. That's why I've found myself gravitating more and more to this thread. Very few other places with such low amounts of judgement and so many open to learning and open to educating others. This place is special. I hope everyone knows that.

Heck yeah, green is always better than red.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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RightWingConspirator said:

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Yup, I made a huge mistake dumping my shares of POWL at $120. I now realize that buy and hold investors should not take advice from trading investors.

Hope that does not come across negatively…they just have different motivations. This one kills me.

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How many times have you held something too long and it get crushed?

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That's a really painful question to answer.

WWR, CLOV, ROKU, NIO (my net free shares), NET (at least my net free shares that I never sold above 100 (the first time)…or 200…

I'm gonna go throw up now.

One thing I've learned is once I'm green, I sell and never look back. You can woulda coulda shoulda all you want when it goes up but there's never a guarantee that it will.

Case in point: I HAD AMD $175c 3/15, I made about 2x and was out of it by 1pm today. I was happy with that return and now I have cash for another play next week. Guess what happend, AMD is now over $195 so my little call would be worth a bit more had I held on to it.

Thats great and all but I can't tell you how many times I've gone into a transaction where I was in the green for most of the day only to go deep red by close.

Take the green where you can get it. Don't get hung up on what could have been. Just get your wins and move on.

RightWingConspirator said:

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Hope it didn't come across as judgement. We all make our own decisions, but I let myself get influenced by perhaps folks that have a differing philosophy. Nothing wrong with differing motivations, but one must stay true to their own philosophy.

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Try beer candles when a stock is on the run. It's the best trend indicator there is. Might help you identify when to sell, when to add protection, and when to let it ride.

The hardest thing in stocks is picking winners. The second hardest thing is knowing when to take profit. This is the kind of thing OA and 30k are experts on, and even they don't catch all of every move. If you don't have a profit point, you will never catch a top without being lucky.

Edit to add: I did not take you as judgemental. Not at all. I took you as someone looking up at what got away not appreciating the bounty you had achieved. It's easy to do. We will find more. I can promise you that.

On that note, I think I teased the board weeks back on a write up on how to profit from downside setups. I'll see if I can get to it this weekend. Because I think where the group on here takes the next step is when we stop always looking up for success. It should come in all scenarios.

SNOW - this is ugly action off the earnings low. I wanted more of a V. Maybe I'm zooming in too much, but 5 min candles paint an ugly picture.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. I am NOT in yet. And if it takes off, I will miss the best entry and I'm ok with that given the potential targets. But this is very muted, choppy action with sellers stepping in too much for me to gamble on yet.

If it does fail and drop farther, I think the next buying opp comes between $150 and $160.

I'm right there with you. I held way too long on some questionable names and lost a lot more than I should've. Stick around and keep learning. Guys like Heineken and Prog are helping us hit singles, some doubles and every once in a while a dinger I keep trying to remind myself of specific things they've said. I'm paraphrasing, but "this is a potential 6x - 12x play, it may not work, but that R/R is worth taking every single time". and more importantly, how to identify these plays and how to minimize losses - like the 5 to 10% rule.

I'll also add this, I've been extremely cautious playing anything since I've been back on this thread (probably shell shock from being a recovering bag holder). In the last month back, I've been stopped out of plays as many times as I've had wins. BUT the wins absolutely have outweighed the $ lost on stops hit. I'm up around 15% in a month. I'm also trying my hand at short holds and scalps. I scalped MARA the other day for over 8%. I knew the levels and saw a trend and went with it. I also scalped BIG the week before (that one was far crazier, like 10% in 15 minutes).

I'm building our accounts back this year and then some. and I honestly sleep better not holding a ton of names every night. It also helps me that I focus on a few at a time.

Let's keep learning and make some money! I love this board and am super thankful for all of you and your shared knowledge.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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SNOW - this is ugly action off the earnings low. I wanted more of a V. Maybe I'm zooming in too much, but 5 min candles paint an ugly picture.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. I am NOT in yet. And if it takes off, I will miss the best entry and I'm ok with that given the potential targets. But this is very muted, choppy action with sellers stepping in too much for me to gamble on yet.

If it does fail and drop farther, I think the next buying opp comes between $150 and $160.

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So let's talk about this. Let's first zoom out.



This is not a bullish setup. And what I mean, is that nothing here gives us confidence that this thing is about to rocket and take off like a NVDA, AMZN, META, etc. There is nothing here telling us that this is the next big thing and cant miss stock and to add it to your portfolio. Forget fundamentals. If this is going to a new high, it's not doing anything to telegraph it, which means buyers aren't convinced and sentiment is not pouring in.

I highlighted the major supply and demand zones. These are as of today. They were different yesterday, of course. But what you will also see is the 50% retracement of the recent move down, as well as the 50% retracement from the major high. Since we never got a higher high, it's absolutely possible that this is retracing a 3-part move down, not a single move. So you need both. The other thing you will see is the 100% extension level. That measures the initial move up off the major low. When you see a major low like that, you want to look for the next top and the find the subsequent bottom. From there, you measure 100% of that move from the bottom that followed. THAT is what really really wants to happen off a major low. A 3 part move where the 3rd equals or extends from the 1st. Ideally, you want it to extend above that and then come and hold that 100% level on the next selloff before moving higher. A hold of that is a MAJOR buying signal.

This did not do that. The initial move down that touched just below the 100% should have been our warning. It then came back up with a lower high. BIG UH OH. This earnings move should have been very easy to tell. Sadly, I wasn't watching this stock until yesterday.

So now we have a major move down. Do we buy? Let's zoom in.



We came into a significant demand zone and started a bounce. And it's only been one day, so very good chance we are too zoomed in and this still moves up. But look at the shape of today's action. Buyers just couldn't gain any traction. It barely moved off it's low. And everything was overlapping and choppy. That is not good news for the bottom is in crowd. This might be a flag.. and not bull kind. Let's look at what a "bottom is in" looks like after the next day.



This is on daily candles, but you can see what a strong bottom looking for new highs looks like. It should hit and reverse quickly. When it doesn't, you HAVE to at least entertain that there can be a new low.

We have a clearly defined stop, so there's limited risk. But the way this is acting just doesn't give me confidence. I'm waiting to see something more.

AND THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH WAITING. The thought that you have to catch an exact bottom and sell at the exact top should leave your mind. You will fail far more than you succeed. Wait for this stock to confirm that it wants to punish sellers and break through some resistance levels. Wait for it to hold some higher lows. You will then have new stop levels with new confidence. And if it takes off to obscene levels and you never get the chance, erase it from memory and move to the next one. YOU DO NOT ADJUST YOUR STRATEGY FOR THE 1% CHANCE.

NYCB- yikes.

BREAKING: New York Community Bank stock, $NYCB, crashes 20%+ after reporting "material weakness in internal controls."

The weakness is reportedly related to loan review resulting from ineffective oversight and risk assessment.

NYCB is the same bank that acquired the collapse… pic.twitter.com/1PeFefoUfO

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 29, 2024

cgh1999 said:

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NYCB- yikes.

BREAKING: New York Community Bank stock, $NYCB, crashes 20%+ after reporting "material weakness in internal controls."

The weakness is reportedly related to loan review resulting from ineffective oversight and risk assessment.

NYCB is the same bank that acquired the collapse… pic.twitter.com/1PeFefoUfO

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 29, 2024

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They are not alone. Been warning about this for a long time. Know who you are banking with.

cgh1999 said:

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NYCB- yikes.

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krosch11 said:

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I've heard an interestingly similar story with truist bank? Do quite a bit of financing for our healthcare JV and two of my bankers said they're inheriting a lot of those clients because they've been turned down left and right. These are solid cash flow positive low leverage entities

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Look up their call report. Bonfire showed a year ago what to look for in these.

While not SVB levels, it's not good.

View or download data for individual institutions - FFIEC Central Data Repository's Public Data Distribution

Look gang, this place is special because we're all focused on the same goal, increasing our knowledge for the betterment of our loved ones. That is why I spend the vast majority of my time on TA here now. I recognize some names here that I've rammed heads with on F16 because we see things differently politically, but here red/blue is out because we're all on team green. I'm a dick on f16, everyone knows that if they've waded into the muck, but I want us all to profit in here. There's no red team or blue team and I keep my politics out of here because it's not the place. Even if I've gone to war with you on F16, I celebrate your wins and feel your losses. I wish you all the best and try my best to help.

The knowledge that is freely shared on here is something that is invaluable and that you'll never experience again. I also learn from you all too, and that's why I hope it reinforces how special our clubhouse is.

Going to bed.

Gig'em
Prog

Heineken-Ashi said:

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krosch11 said:

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I've heard an interestingly similar story with truist bank? Do quite a bit of financing for our healthcare JV and two of my bankers said they're inheriting a lot of those clients because they've been turned down left and right. These are solid cash flow positive low leverage entities

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Look up their call report. Bonfire showed a year ago what to look for in these.

While not SVB levels, it's not good.

View or download data for individual institutions - FFIEC Central Data Repository's Public Data Distribution

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Call reports are almost perfect for this banking crisis. Why almost? Because there are three things to look for, in particular, in this particular banking crisis:

1. Liquidity - Look at how much "cash", both interest bearing and non interest bearing is at the top of each bank's balance sheet. This is a combination of bank equity and excess customer deposits. This is the LIFEBLOOD of banks in this crisis. This is how they survive a bank run and how they survive inflation driven, deposit runoff. If they don't have liquidity, they have to offload investments, at a loss, to gain liquidity. To borrow a term this thread is familiar with, liquidity is how a bank survives a margin call

2. investments - this is broken into AFS or HTM, Available for Sale and Held to Maturity. Treat these the same. As you know, in a liquidity crisis, EVERYTHING IS FOR SALE. If they have a big balance here and low liquidity, look out. If they have a balance here as big or bigger than equity, look out.

3. Non owner occupied CRE in urban markets - unfortunately not on the call report. This is the particular CRE that is crashing the hardest. However, there are enough publicly traded, safe banks according to metrics 1 & 2 that you can focus there and mitigate risk in 3.

The most important metric in this is 1. Liquidity. If a bank has ample liquidity, they can manage a bad bond portfolio in 2. And they can manage a bad CRE portfolio. It's when liquidity is drained that a bank has to offload bad investments or bad loans, at a loss, to raise liquidity.

Inflation deposit drain - people/businesses spending more than they earn - is causing this crisis. Banks with liquidity will survive. Banks without liquidity will need help. What kind of help? Either a Pennies on the dollar purchase by the bigs, or a rate decrease "bailout" by the FED. Rate decreases make both bad loans and bad investments tradable close to PAR, in other words, it gives the banks liquidity options.

Thats why I say, FED decrease June meeting before inflation is whipped and AFTER another failure or two.

One thing I have learned at a much older age than I should have, do not hold on too long and watch a win go all the way to zero. I have done that more than once.

On Powell, I took my gains (thanks Prog) and moved on. There will be another day, with more $$ in my pocket, to score a big win.

I have made a good bit of money because of advice I gained from reading this board. I have said this before, if I could find the person who recommended LVS in April 2009, I would buy them a steak dinner.