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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Hold steady lads.

Don't put the 401Ks to cash. Just keep DCA'ing- use the dips to help lower your cost basis and build on the compound interest.
Brewmaster
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Heineken-Ashi said:

BTC should find resistance in the $58k area. If not, it could extend all the way to $65k if it wanted.


Go baby go! Fry those miner shorts!
Brewmaster
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Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

Hold steady lads.

Don't put the 401Ks to cash. Just keep DCA'ing- use the dips to help lower your cost basis and build on the compound interest.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I'll just leave these here.

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/health-law-and-business/chevrons-loose-end-on-hess-wasnt-flagged-tectonic-ceo-says

Hope Chevron is left outside looking in. Go XOM!
******************************************************************

...and finally.

After just over 2 freakin' years of telling you guys that EIA numbers were pure genuine BS every week. Vindication has arrived. Finally someone(s) else is seeing it and talking about it.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Short-Sellers-in-Trouble-As-Physical-Oil-Market-Defies-Data.html#:~:text=While%20official%20data%20indicates%20an,spreads%2C%20contrary%20to%20market%20expectations.

Quote:

Something odd is taking place in the oil market. While on one hand "data" dissembled by Biden's Dept of Energy and specifically its statistical arm, the Energy Information Administration, has done everything it could to indicate there is a glut of oil, which is understandable - there is nothing Biden's handlers fear more than an inflationary surge in oil and gasoline prices ahead of the November elections and will do everything in their power to mandate a dataset that has the most adverse impact on oil prices, the physical market is sending just the opposite signal, with spreads showing screaming physical tightness.
>
>
>
>
The dramatic spikes in prompt timespreads across the crude complex was the Goldman chart of the week just a few days ago, and shows just how dramatically and rapidly the market has tigthened up as a result of sudden scarcity of physical which, however, has barely received any mention in daily discussions about the energy market.

Have a great day!
tailgatetimer10
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Friendly reminder that you don't have to go full cash to reduce risk...

I know it goes with out saying but selling a fraction to get to cash is my happy medium
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

I'll just leave these here.

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/health-law-and-business/chevrons-loose-end-on-hess-wasnt-flagged-tectonic-ceo-says

Hope Chevron is left outside looking in. Go XOM!
******************************************************************

...and finally.

After just over 2 freakin' years of telling you guys that EIA numbers were pure genuine BS every week. Vindication has arrived. Finally someone(s) else is seeing it and talking about it.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Short-Sellers-in-Trouble-As-Physical-Oil-Market-Defies-Data.html#:~:text=While%20official%20data%20indicates%20an,spreads%2C%20contrary%20to%20market%20expectations.

Quote:

Something odd is taking place in the oil market. While on one hand "data" dissembled by Biden's Dept of Energy and specifically its statistical arm, the Energy Information Administration, has done everything it could to indicate there is a glut of oil, which is understandable - there is nothing Biden's handlers fear more than an inflationary surge in oil and gasoline prices ahead of the November elections and will do everything in their power to mandate a dataset that has the most adverse impact on oil prices, the physical market is sending just the opposite signal, with spreads showing screaming physical tightness.
>
>
>
>
The dramatic spikes in prompt timespreads across the crude complex was the Goldman chart of the week just a few days ago, and shows just how dramatically and rapidly the market has tigthened up as a result of sudden scarcity of physical which, however, has barely received any mention in daily discussions about the energy market.

Have a great day!


ProgN
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bmoochie said:

What are your thoughts of going all cash in 401ks? I know we would never be able to time it but do you think it's worth messing with?

For context I'm 34 so I know when I retire it will overall be higher. That's how it's designed. Just curious on your thoughts.
That's a difficult question to answer because it really depends on each individual's market experience. For instance, I've grown accounts by moving in and out of securities based on what charts tell me. I've sold 1000 shrs of XYZ and when it drops, I've then bought 2000 shrs of XYZ back and rode it up again. That compounding grows my accounts exponentially as the size of the accounts get larger. So, if it were my accounts, I'd move into a cash position in my 401K, while still contributing the max and grow that cash position until I'm ready to go back in.

That being said, if you don't have experience doing that, then it's best just to leave it like it is. Open a separate trading account with the sole purpose of riding waves and outperform your 401K that is DCA. When you prove to yourself you can consistently outperform your 401K, then you'll be ready to apply the same principle with your 401K.

Hope that makes sense, I haven't had my caffeine yet but I think you know what I'm trying to say.
Heineken-Ashi
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Going to buy XLRE March $39 calls. Can kick out to April if you want to buy more time, but returns will be less. Targeting $42.65

Edit to add: Premium paid is your stop. Zero or hero.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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$61 alert for those OXY calls for all who followed....
AgEng06
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NNOX did finally get back up to your $11-12 target, regardless of the news from the other day that (I believe) changed your outlook for it.
Heineken-Ashi
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Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

$61 alert for those OXY calls for all who followed....
So close to the breakout.
ProgN
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AgEng06 said:

NNOX did finally get back up to your $11-12 target, regardless of the news from the other day that (I believe) changed your outlook for it.
saw that, that was the second wave I was anticipating.
I bleed maroon
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bmoochie said:

What are your thoughts of going all cash in 401ks? I know we would never be able to time it but do you think it's worth messing with?

For context I'm 34 so I know when I retire it will overall be higher. That's how it's designed. Just curious on your thoughts.
An alternative I use, but definitely do not recommend to others lightly, is partial directional hedging of existing positions. This breaks the cardinal rule of trying to time the market, so buyer beware:

When I feel things are overheated, instead of liquidating everything and sitting out of the market, I buy significantly medium term out-of-the-money puts. An example:

If I have $100,000, half in SPY and half in XOM, I'd buy $1000-2000 in puts on each component, generally several months out, at a strike price at least 10-15% lower than current. This can be done fairly economically, and serves as catastrophic insurance. Over 80% of the time (in my experience), the puts expire worthless. But if the downturn happens (more severe, the better), you can make 10x-20x+ on the puts, which cushions the blow of losses in the core portfolio.

I was fortunate enough to have used this strategy in 2008 and 2020, and I think a few puts returned 100x. Now, the money lost on the other 80% offsets most of the gains, but provides peace-of-mind and comfort regarding keeping money in the market.

Like I said, it's not for everyone. I'd love to hear oldarmy1 or others expound on their hedging strategies. I think there are better triggers for enacting hedging than "feel", but it's mainly a personal psychology rationale that I use to justify it (an individual's fear of a market decline), and that differs between investors.
McInnis 03
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We like your stuff.

Made a move on some FSLY today when it was touching 14.04
Heineken-Ashi
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OXY - $61.70 - $62 range will be where I sell most of the calls. They expire Friday, so hoping for more upside can be painful if it doesn't come. We will take the win if it happens and re-assess.

If that range hits and OXY then comes back to the $59.5-$60.5 area and can hold, we might do one more batch of short term calls targeting $63-$64. But TBD on that one.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

Hold steady lads.

Don't put the 401Ks to cash. Just keep DCA'ing- use the dips to help lower your cost basis and build on the compound interest.


Unsure if he's trolling (based on the other RPR account's posts on the millionaire thread), but he's absolutely right.
Heineken-Ashi
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McInnis 03 said:

We like your stuff.

Made a move on some FSLY today when it was touching 14.04
Chipotlemonger
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bmoochie said:

What are your thoughts of going all cash in 401ks? I know we would never be able to time it but do you think it's worth messing with?

For context I'm 34 so I know when I retire it will overall be higher. That's how it's designed. Just curious on your thoughts.


34? Hell no
I bleed maroon
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

Hold steady lads.

Don't put the 401Ks to cash. Just keep DCA'ing- use the dips to help lower your cost basis and build on the compound interest.


Unsure if he's trolling (based on the other RPR account's posts on the millionaire thread), but he's absolutely right.
I think they're all different people working for the same company. Don't lump them all together in the "Red Pear Realty" poster bucket.
I bleed maroon
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Heineken-Ashi said:

McInnis 03 said:

We like your stuff.

Made a move on some FSLY today when it was touching 14.04

Wait - have we ever seen McInnis and Heineken together in the same room? Didn't McInnis quit posting in this thread about the same time Heineken came along? How many are there, in total?

Makes you think.
Chipotlemonger
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Yea this RPL is different than RPR.
Talon2DSO
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McInnis 03 said:

We like your stuff.

Made a move on some FSLY today when it was touching 14.04


I got in at $14.22. What's your play with FSLY?
McInnis 03
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Talon2DSO said:

McInnis 03 said:

We like your stuff.

Made a move on some FSLY today when it was touching 14.04


I got in at $14.22. What's your play with FSLY?
Copying HA's thoughts here. Not a short term play, but a retrace play off the terrible drop after earnings.

See post below.

https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2721405/replies/67044058

Cliffnotes; This trade is a failure if 13.75 trades.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

Hold steady lads.

Don't put the 401Ks to cash. Just keep DCA'ing- use the dips to help lower your cost basis and build on the compound interest.


Unsure if he's trolling (based on the other RPR account's posts on the millionaire thread), but he's absolutely right.
Not trolling and not affiliated with the comments on the other thread.

I see value/wealth creation coming from multiple streams - 401Ks, Roths, Real Estate, etc.. If you want to financial independence, it's best to follow the FIRE flow chart and work to reduce living expenses and increase savings (can attest it's easier said vs done as most have families/other obligations)
Brian Earl Spilner
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I bleed maroon said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

Hold steady lads.

Don't put the 401Ks to cash. Just keep DCA'ing- use the dips to help lower your cost basis and build on the compound interest.


Unsure if he's trolling (based on the other RPR account's posts on the millionaire thread), but he's absolutely right.
I think they're all different people working for the same company. Don't lump them all together in the "Red Pear Realty" poster bucket.


Thought so. Good to know. Luke is good people.
I bleed maroon
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Constellation Energy (CEG) up another 2.5% today, after a 17% gain yesterday. Not sure I get it?

Large cap boring "clean energy" utility (mostly nuclear) that announced improved earnings guidance for the future.

They're not really supposed to move like that. Any nuke-savvy people here know if there's more to the story? Did Nancy Pelosi buy some call options we don't yet know about?
Brian Earl Spilner
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Word.

Big FIRE guy here, been following that community closely for about 10 years now. Already achieved coast FIRE, but no plans to actually coast yet.
McInnis 03
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A similar play could exist for ROKU
Talon2DSO
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Anyone still in the KO and BABA March 15 calls?

KO $65c 3/15
BABA $75 3/15
Heineken-Ashi
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Talon2DSO said:

Anyone still in the KO and BABA March 15 calls?

KO $65c 3/15
BABA $75 3/15
KO yes. Hoping for a solid spike one of these days.
ProgN
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McInnis 03 said:

A similar play could exist for ROKU


Good to have y'all back in the clubhouse.
ETX_Ag_22_24
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Are we holding FUBO through earnings?
Brian Earl Spilner
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McInnis 03 said:

A similar play could exist for ROKU
I lost my ass on ROKU once (and then BOIL, it apparently took the same thing happening twice for me to learn my lesson), but I like the stock at these levels.

My hard stop is $55.
McInnis 03
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

McInnis 03 said:

A similar play could exist for ROKU
I lost my ass on ROKU once (and then BOIL, it apparently took the same thing happening twice for me to learn my lesson), but I like the stock at these levels.

My hard stop is $55.
I'll be using $61.45 as my stop. on this specific decision.
Number Monkey
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Should have bought more IBIT ETF. Figured I was late to the game and now it's up almost 20% just since mid-February. Anxiously awaiting what happens at the halving....

ETA: Interested to see if it ends up being a safe-haven during a downturn like precious metals have been in the past.
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