Something spooked the market.

I'm taking the opportunity to scalp and bought 0dte 497c. Just to scalp a few and see if it shakes this spook.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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BlueTaze said:

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Per #7, do you ever look at trading a call credit spread on NVDA? Maybe 2-3 weeks out, lil below the strike?

The 610/615 spread trading around $4 credit currently on these for Feb 16. Seems safer than buying puts to fade this parabolic move.

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I personally don't mess around with anything outside of standard puts and calls. I have enough on my plate that trying to manipulate windows of risk and reward through options just doesn't match my strategies. I admire those who do and are successful.

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I hearya on that. Guess with a full time job I feel safer with spreads. Either way, we are placing directional bets, but your standard puts/calls can give much bigger returns if you stay on top of them daily with your discipline.

One thing that should give at least a little pause. VIX and VXX have NOT moved lower with equities pushing up.

ProgN said:

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I playing a lotto and bot 10 SPY 498c @ .06

I have a suspicion SPY wants 500 today. $60 is worth the gamble

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I'm your ride or die. I'm in

Talon2DSO said:

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ProgN said:

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I playing a lotto and bot 10 SPY 498c @ .06

I have a suspicion SPY wants 500 today. $60 is worth the gamble

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I'm your ride or die. I'm in

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Me too. I also bought 500s a couple weeks out. Those are looking lots better at the moment.

AMD is so close to full breakout. Stop moved to $175.50. Guaranteed $300 profit on 100 share earnings play. But still hoping for $195

This market just doesn't feel sustainable.

It's not

So the question is will the crash be as violent as this pop up has been?

Philip J Fry said:

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This market just doesn't feel sustainable.

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It's not. Risk management is key. But no reason to stop playing as long as you have your R/R identified.

Philip J Fry said:

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So the question is will the crash be as violent as this pop up has been?

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Without going into too many technical details, a move like we've had since October will likely be 100% retraced, and probably rather quickly, once this tops. Will it be this week? A couple months? Election timing? Nobody knows. But moves off a major low like we've had, with this small of pullbacks along the way, do not ever end well. In fact, I can't think of another time we had this robust of a move, this quickly, with no significant pullbacks. We're already outpacing the late 1999 / early 2000 fractal. Look how quickly it came all the way down in 2000 after topping.

Risk management risk management risk management.

That's me and I very much appreciate that post.

META VS TEAM...AN ACRONYM BATTLE

one killing it one getting killed.

not sure why TEAM is getting slaughtered, interesting that META is going to start paying dividends?

55c away from es 5k, will it reverse there? $4.5 from spy 500, $3 from spx 5000. Rsi just keeps getting warm then cooling off, chilling out now, could be an epic power hour.

Ok, I'm going lotto on some IWM $195's. Not advising to follow me.

Philip J Fry said:

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So the question is will the crash be as violent as this pop up has been?

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I'm going to start parking some profits and build a position in the Aug SPY 450p one contract at a time. Those are looking very good to me at the moment.

Looking for IWM $195.60 to sell 75% and leave a runner into close. Entry was $0.25

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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So the question is will the crash be as violent as this pop up has been?

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Without going into too many technical details, a move like we've had since October will likely be 100% retraced, and probably rather quickly, once this tops. Will it be this week? A couple months? Election timing? Nobody knows. But moves off a major low like we've had, with this small of pullbacks along the way, do not ever end well. In fact, I can't think of another time we had this robust of a move, this quickly, with no significant pullbacks. We're already outpacing the late 1999 / early 2000 fractal. Look how quickly it came all the way down in 2000 after topping.

Risk management risk management risk management.

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I would agree wholeheartedly, but I've seen the argument that the market is just making up for a mostly sideways 2022. It's hard to say.

IWM is trying. Let's get it!

I'm watching Rocky 1,2, and 3 this weekend. Loved Rocky and Apollo Creede.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Nothing sideways about 2022. It erased half the post COVID move. Market doesn't make up for anything. It was extremely overheated in 2021. It's even more overheated now. 2022 lows can be seen again.

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How so?

I mean when stocks start recovering from a bear market, it seems to me the lower the market dropped, the longer it can sustain a bull market afterward.

I agree that 2021 was overextended, but 2022 gave a lot of that back.

I certainly agree there will be a healthy pullback, but I'm just not convinced 2022 lows are as likely as you make it sound.

That said, still sitting on way more cash than usual in case it does happen.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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I mean when stocks start recovering from a bear market, it seems to me the lower the market dropped, the longer it can sustain a bull market afterward.

I agree that 2021 was overextended, but 2022 gave a lot of that back.

I certainly agree there will be a healthy pullback, but I'm just not convinced 2022 lows are as likely as you make it sound.

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Likely and possible are two different things. Nobody can know. I look for context clues in history. And they aren't kind looking forward. Would love nothing more than to be wrong. But right now, it's not wise to be betting on higher forever.

Last chance for IWM lottos. Any lower and they are likely dead.

Right now it's the FOMO that's getting the best of me. It's so hard to sit on the sidelines while we just keep making new highs. But I nibble on days like yesterday.

Tough to know what stops to set for leveraged plays like TNA, TQQQ, and SSO.