One of the wildest wedding receptions in history pic.twitter.com/3j7L5gXyyv

— Historic Vids (@historyinmemes) February 2, 2024

Why did I think that this was FJ's wedding?

And this morning ladies and gents is why I closed my QQQ trade at the last second yesterday in winning territory. This could just be a spike down and it could completely recover, but being expiration day, why give it the chance to reverse and for theta to dice you up? You enter the box with your standard approach and make the same, consistent swing on every pitch. Home runs happen a majority of the time in a favorable count. And you aren't hunting them. Late in the count, you're usually just trying to get that base hit. Take it and move to the next one. Don't get greedy.

RDFN back to the demand zone and trying to hold. Look at the daily. While we haven't gotten flashing oversold signals, indicators have reset at a higher low than the October low and are basing here. With stop being $7.34, there's 10-12% risk entering now with a couple chop supply zones to get above before bare minimum reward of $11.50 or 35-40% can be expected which is not the greatest R/R. But if you wanted to enter, you know where to place your stop. And ultimately, the hope is that it does take out $11.50 and enter the huge range of possible targets starting with gap fill of $13.88 and as high as $19.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Stop moved on earnings AMD shares to $171 entry. Not going to lose a cent on these shares acquired for earnings after that initial drop. Goal is still $195.

---

You the man! I waited til yesterday to get into AMD when I saw what looked like a "W" forming and higher lows. I bought commons and bought 1 option for funsies.

also still had 1 QQQ that was riding free, sold it on that pop to 426 ish.

hitting up Prog's buddies gofundme again now. Thankful this thread is alive again and for all of you!

I'll say this, especially for the guy yesterday that says he has a hard time pulling trigger and continually scares himself out of trading.

1. You shouldn't enter a play without a plan.

2. Your minimum goal should be 1.5x your cost, and preferably 2x. At the very least, your play should be 4x your RISK. What does that mean? It means that if your buy is $10 and your stop is $9.50, your risk is 5% or $0.50, so a target under $12 doesn't even get you a 20% return on a 5% risk, its just not worth the squeeze. Whether it's shares or options, if the pathway to 2x, or 4x your risk, requires getting through a ton of noise and chop zones, it's probably not a high probability move.

3. Your risk should be 10% loss or less, and preferably 5% or less. If the next major support/demand level loses more than 10%, then you either missed the optimal buy point or it hasn't come into it yet (or you just aren't looking at a play that provides a good opportunity). Scalps and lottos are the only things where you assume more risk as they are all or nothing with premium paid as your risk. That's why you keep those small in size and only use money you are 100% willing to lose.

4. DON'T ADJUST YOUR STOP DOWN! Stick to your plan. If it fails but you still like it after that with a new lower stop, you can always re-enter.

5. You have to do the homework. If you merely log on in the morning and look at a bunch of charts from a birds eye view, you are not prepared. You shouldn't enter anything that you haven't put your eyes on and highlighted the supply and demand zones with the major (daily or weekly) lows and highs clearly highlighted. If someone advises a play and you trust them, then you have to trust their plan and stick to it unless you've done your homework. And if their plan includes heavy risk, then it's probably not the plan for you if you can't stomach the drawdowns in the process. And if their plan doesn't highlight the risk or isn't clear on a reward, then what are they even doing?

6. Along those same lines, you have to have goals and a strategy. Real targets. Do you just jump in to things and take what you can get, your account ebbing and flowing in the wind? You should have yearly and monthly goals on top of longer term goals. And make them realistic. If you've never grown your account 20% in a year as a trader, then your first year should probably be a 20% growth goal. Anything over that and you just aren't being realistic with yourself. You can always outperform. Start with modest goals. I PROMISE YOU, if you start taking out small achievable goals, your strategy will start building on itself. Success won't happen overnight and it won't happen in one year. But with a good strategy and achieveable goals, you will start to compound actual consistent success and have exponential growth long term.

7. Don't get FOMO. Just don't freaking do it. Sure you can buy 5 shares of NVDA at $650 and likely get $675-$700 soon. But is that really worth it? It could have a huge drawdown and still be bullish. For 5 shares of NVDA potentially earning 3-5%, you can get 100 shares of a $30 stock that might have a 50% reward with low risk. If you are a TRADER, don't waste your time chasing stocks that already achieved massive generational moves. If you are a long term investor, those NVDA market leading stocks will likely be better for you. Go get your 7-10% per year on average. More power to you. ONCE A BIG MOVE HAPPENS, you probably missed it. Tough pill to swallow. But there will be others.

This weekend I will work on a post detailing how to use a bunch of different indicators and studies. As has been said many times, you can't use them all. But you can know how they all work and focus on the ones that paint the best picture for YOUR strategy.

Here's something I'm watching. Put it in on your radar.

If IWM gets down to $190 - $191 region and holds, I'll be looking to enter Feb16 $200's. Minimum target is $202 and max target is $207. Calls should be $0.50-$0.75 around there, so min target reward is over 2x and max target reward would be over 10x.

Remember, I calculate the payoff as the min/max target on expiration day minus the strike. If it gets there sooner there is likely additional juice built in.

And the risk will be premium paid. I do not micromanage stops on options. If I'm not willing to lose the money, I'm not willing to play.

If IWM doesn't go lower and I find a R/R I like I will post it, but that's the one I'm hoping for.

this could be good for BIG and FUBO as well (rotation into small caps)? I'm not in either yet, but watching close.

UNFI channel (and apologies for number of posts). Time to go wake the wife up, lol.

On UNFI, I'll be taking profit on 3/4 of my position at $18.40 gap fill. If we get a dip, I'll consider adding back. But that would be around a 25% return if all were sold and close to a free ride on remaining shares selling 75%. And this has been an ugly ass chart. These sideways consolidations don't usually just keep rocketing. So going to ride the wheel assuming it gives us the chance.

I playing a lotto and bot 10 SPY 498c @ .06

I have a suspicion SPY wants 500 today. $60 is worth the gamble