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South Platte
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 9:59a, 2/1/24
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Fomo creeping in for smci. I sold at $300...
Creeping in? FOMO yelling at me like I'm Private Pyle
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ProgN
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In reply to South Platte • 10:06a, 2/1/24
South Platte said:
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Fomo creeping in for smci. I sold at $300...
Creeping in? FOMO yelling at me like I'm Private Pyle
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TxAG#2011
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 10:32a, 2/1/24
FTAG 2000 said:
Bonfire.1996 said:
Another way banks can raise liquidity is to sell loan portfolio. Think they can sell underwater CRE loans?

Nope. They act and behave just like the illiquid investments the banks made with their liquidity.

Note to you guys with local community banks: DONT CHASE YIELD IN CDS. If a bank is offering anything near the 5.3% fed funds rate in a CD, right now, run run run far away. The only reason to offer that rate when the FED is absolutely dropping rates this Summer, is because that bank can't afford to lose a freaking penny of liquidity. Not one. They likely have extremely bad CRE portfolios and extremely bad bond portfolios.

Lots of Texas banks fall into this category.


Feels like we need to look at publicly traded banks and find ones with high yield CDs and short them.
KRE is getting hit
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to TxAG#2011 • 10:39a, 2/1/24
Needs to hold $46 badly. But I do like the potential divergence here on daily.
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Bonfire.1996
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 10:46a, 2/1/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
Needs to hold $46 badly. But I do like the potential divergence here on daily.
KRE is going to be an interesting long term play. If the FED ends up at a 2.5% Fed funds rate, that's an extremely healthy level for banking regionals. They will print money.

Getting to that level without turmoil is key.

What makes KRE attractive during the next 3-6 months is the 10 year treasury rate. As it drops, banks' bad bond portfolios get better in a "mark to market" situation, and bank liquidity becomes less of an issue.

If KRE keeps dropping and the 10 year approaches 3.5%, it's a solid value play.
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ProgN
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11:09a, 2/1/24
Something just caused the markets to step on the gas.
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Spoony Love
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In reply to ProgN • 11:15a, 2/1/24
AG
Sure did. Some wild swings this morning.
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Heineken-Ashi
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11:37a, 2/1/24
I think this action might be setting up an afternoon high as the market is attempting to shrug off the FOMC noise.
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ProgN
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11:40a, 2/1/24
ETN smashed earnings this morning. It's on my list I posted at the beginning of the year.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to ProgN • 11:42a, 2/1/24
AG
FTV calls paid bigly, just sold, only bought them on yesterday's dip. They went 2x +.

Headed now to Gofundme page for the little man. Cheers to Heineken for the play and Prog for chatting (and helping) me with life on more than one occasion!

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ProgN
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In reply to Brewmaster • 11:45a, 2/1/24
Thank you brother and I hope all is well for you.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brewmaster • 11:48a, 2/1/24
Brewmaster said:
FTV calls paid bigly, just sold, only bought them on yesterday's dip. They went 2x +.

Headed now to Gofundme page for the little man. Cheers to Heineken for the play and Prog for chatting (and helping) me with life on more than one occasion!

Congrats! I've already baked in 2x and am waiting for the $5 contract value to sell the rest for a 5x total.
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ProgN
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 11:53a, 2/1/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
I think this action might be setting up an afternoon high as the market is attempting to shrug off the FOMC noise.
Rumor circulating the floor of a possible ceasefire in the ME.
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Heineken-Ashi
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11:53a, 2/1/24
Crude dropping. If we get a new low, a LOT of names are going to start entering the buy box for AT LEAST a retracement play up, and maybe even a buying opportunity not seen since COVID bottom (not in price, but in opportunity looking forward).
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Fredd
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 12:54p, 2/1/24
AG
Any names you have your eye on?
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Fredd • 1:02p, 2/1/24
Fredd said:
Any names you have your eye on?
APA
OXY
DVN
XLE
USO
VLO
CVX
HAL
SBOW
XOP
EOG
XOM
WHD

I mean.. if this happens (big if still), you will practically be able to throw a dart.

Please keep in mind, this is not likely actionable immediately. We're talking crude in the high $50's to low $60's. LOOONG way to go before that is reality. Just saying that a breakdown below the last low in crude likely starts to put this in motion. Most of those names have lower levels I've been watching for over a year as they have stubbornly tried to fill out triangles and failed bullish setups. If they get to the levels I always wanted, it's shopping time.
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Heineken-Ashi
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1:05p, 2/1/24
FTV March $80's now over $3.00 (entry was $0.50). Still looking for $5.00 and plenty of time to play out.
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Heineken-Ashi
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1:09p, 2/1/24
If Q's bust through here, the rest of the Friday $423's from yesterday could still pay nicely.

$1.50 right now if you want to get in looking for $2-$3 range per contract. Stop would be premium paid, so only play money.

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El Chupacabra
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1:11p, 2/1/24
Has WOLF ever been disussed here?
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El_duderino
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 1:12p, 2/1/24
I had these at $.76 this morning and only paper traded it
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Heineken-Ashi
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1:39p, 2/1/24
Waiting on the fat cats to finish digesting lunch and step on the pedal.
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ProgN
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 1:41p, 2/1/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
Waiting on the fat cats to finish digesting lunch and step on the pedal.

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Heineken-Ashi
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1:49p, 2/1/24
Push kitty!
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Brewmaster
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1:59p, 2/1/24
AG
SMCI 700 C flow, LOL. volume buys too
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Heineken-Ashi
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1:59p, 2/1/24
If we get $2 on the $423's sell 75% and enjoy the free ride today and tomorrow.
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El_duderino
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 2:04p, 2/1/24
Is today the catalyst that UNFI has needed?
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TheVarian
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In reply to Brewmaster • 2:09p, 2/1/24
AG
That is crazy. All the FOMO over here..
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to El_duderino • 2:10p, 2/1/24
El_duderino said:
Is today the catalyst that UNFI has needed?
Could be. Lot of work to do before it breaks out of this ugly consolidation. But a good start if it can continue.
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El_duderino
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 2:11p, 2/1/24
True. Noticed an interesting volume spike just after 11am this morning so I was curious.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to El_duderino • 2:15p, 2/1/24
Watch daily for volume. Nothing interesting happening yet. Still in the cage and trying to fight out.
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ProgN
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In reply to Brewmaster • 2:17p, 2/1/24
Brewmaster said:
SMCI 700 C flow, LOL. volume buys too
I sure hope they don't announce a stock split and that news leaked.
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South Platte
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In reply to El_duderino • 2:22p, 2/1/24
El_duderino said:
Is today the catalyst that UNFI has needed?
What was the catalyst? The fact that the calendar hit February? I'll take it, regardless.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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2:22p, 2/1/24
AG
UNFI
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El_duderino
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2:25p, 2/1/24
Those of you that have been doing this for quite some time, is being afraid to lose money just as bad as being too greedy? I've now had 4-5 plays that I've had my order set, watching my indicators that are pointing in the right direction, and just haven't submitted the order out of fear of losing. It's now reached about $5,000 of lost opportunities in the past couple weeks for fear of losing.
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Heineken-Ashi
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2:28p, 2/1/24
It's almost AAPL time. Q's are depending on it.
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