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oldarmy1
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In reply to EnronAg • 8:31p, 12/7/23
AG
EnronAg said:
oldarmy1 said:
ALERT!

Macro markets made an outside bar on the daily. This is a huge warning to reign in activity, be well positioned for large directional movement. The top this summer I had everyone sell out on was an outside bar. Big institutions set these wide range OB to attempt to mask their actions. Last time the OB was also a downside day bar closing near lows. Next two days pushed upward, thus setting the trap before all heck broke loose to the downside.

Doesn't mean this one results in the same, but I automatically reign in trading and act on protection of share positions. If we push upward tomorrow, I use it on any recent call entries to trim down and just wait it out.

not disagreeing with you at all...but weren't 8/24 and 11/9 true OB days where it closed at lows? and then both of those ended up with 3-4 days of rips to the upside...am I missing something on those days?
Absolutely. The key when these occur is where the first candle closes, above or below. If it pushes above or below the OB but closes back inside, then it's meaningless. What you see on the initial close above or below is a follow through for a few days at the minimum. However, if at tops (or bottoms) the trend reversal becomes long term. When these occur during sideways periods, it's worth special attention. We could breakout to the upside out of this and it would give a high confidence opportunity to trade the upside a few days.

My bias had been to the upside until yesterday's technical. All it does is muddy the technical read, so the alert is to signify that it's wise to take an ounce of prevention and pull back on trading until it clears.

Scott took on tracking our trades. Most of November's have closed. SCHW was a mid-October trade that wasn't closed until November for 500%. We're assessing where the trade just be posted. November was a perfect set up for short term trading, so please don't think it represents the norm. This month we are running a high % profitability on shorter term trades, but we have had stop losses. I can post it in December.

Rubber meeting the road - nowhere to hide results.

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oldarmy1
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In reply to trip98 • 8:47p, 12/7/23
AG
trip98 said:
OA1...if I follow your older teachings/videos (been to busy with work/life to jump into your new service), and I have a position in ASO that I've been selling CC's to lower total investment, now would be a good time to sell a CC. right?
IF we get pullback as the chart suggests then I have some flexibility to buy back and book profit or simply watch and see how it goes and maybe expire for 100% premium profit
IF market continues up, I need to be comfortable with being called out....OR buy buck and take a bit of a loss to keep my shares
I'm not suggesting the macro chart is saying we're reversing trend. I'm simply saying it presents confusion for trading short term and bears the appropriate respect. ASO's chart is a perfect flag, making it a breakout candidate. Personally, I'd risk holding it without a CC for now.
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EnronAg
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9:22a, 12/8/23
AG
52 week high...this thing just continues to rip...ATH by year end...we'll eclipse the Mar'22 high today or next week...
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EngrAg14
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9:52a, 12/8/23
AG
The weekly and monthly charts have a damn beautiful cup/handle.
In correlation to OA1 post.

As much as I'd like to see this reverse down and hit the 430 gaps again, that chart makes it hard to believe it's gonna full send downwards.

Without something external pushing it down.
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oldarmy1
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12:58p, 12/8/23
AG
Today's early trade called out was LULU expiring $170 calls. They hit low of $0.21 and my alert was set to the technical bounce, so chased entry to $1.72. They reached over $22!

But I was out at $10. $2200 for every $172 would have been wild. But $1000 against $172 isn't bad.

We rose above the outside bar, dropped right to my technical low intraday (ask the gang) and are waiting to see close.

ARM above $66. It can rip over $90 IMO.
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Red Pear Jack
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1:56p, 12/8/23
Sponsor
Well in true rookie fashion, I Leroy Jenkin'd into 0dte calls on SPY and got burnt.

I got antsy in my pantsy and did not wait for a pull back to properly enter. I knew it was going to pull back and yet I did not listen to myself.

Nothing beats learning in the trenches.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Red Pear Jack • 2:39p, 12/8/23
AG
Nhod! Nhod! Nhod!

Bro you must have fomod into that first run hard this morning, hopefully those calls are coming back to life?
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EnronAg
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2:41p, 12/8/23
AG
SPY $462.08 incoming!!!
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Brian Earl Spilner
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2:42p, 12/8/23
AG
52 week high
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Ccutamu
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 2:50p, 12/8/23
oldarmy1 said:
Today's early trade called out was LULU expiring $170 calls. They hit low of $0.21 and my alert was set to the technical bounce, so chased entry to $1.72. They reached over $22!

But I was out at $10. $2200 for every $172 would have been wild. But $1000 against $172 isn't bad.

We rose above the outside bar, dropped right to my technical low intraday (ask the gang) and are waiting to see close.

ARM above $66. It can rip over $90 IMO.
Nice call on ARM, OA... went net free this morning... now waiting for the rip!

Thanks!
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Red Pear Jack
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 4:02p, 12/8/23
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That's exactly what I did.

I missed the opportunity before it ripped up and then FOMOd in.
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ProgN
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In reply to Red Pear Jack • 4:29p, 12/8/23
Red Pear Jack said:
That's exactly what I did.

I missed the opportunity before it ripped up and then FOMOd in.
Everyone has and will do the same. Removing emotion is next to impossible but maintaining discipline is paramount. Learn from your mistake and try to remember how you're feeling right now. Everyone is different but here's a few things that helped me and I still use to this day when I feel the fomo excitement building and my emotions affecting my judgement.

1) Take a couple of deep breaths and don't hit enter on the trade
2) Ask yourself if you're gambling or confident that it's met your favorite 3 technical indicators
3) Remember that there is always something to buy if you miss this trade
4) Remember your past mistakes, not your victories

Hope that helps a little.
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trip98
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 6:01p, 12/8/23
AG
oldarmy1 said:
trip98 said:
OA1...if I follow your older teachings/videos (been to busy with work/life to jump into your new service), and I have a position in ASO that I've been selling CC's to lower total investment, now would be a good time to sell a CC. right?
IF we get pullback as the chart suggests then I have some flexibility to buy back and book profit or simply watch and see how it goes and maybe expire for 100% premium profit
IF market continues up, I need to be comfortable with being called out....OR buy buck and take a bit of a loss to keep my shares
I'm not suggesting the macro chart is saying we're reversing trend. I'm simply saying it presents confusion for trading short term and bears the appropriate respect. ASO's chart is a perfect flag, making it a breakout candidate. Personally, I'd risk holding it without a CC for now.
Makes absolute sense!! Thanks for taking the time to answer with insight.
This last year I've been going longer periods just sitting on the shares with no CCs. I'm in a great spot and in it for the long haul so no rush

Hopefully within the next 6 months things settle out work/life and I can join the service.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:36p, 12/8/23
AG
We live traded this today in the OA service. I called out NUGT to enter at 30.82 with first sell at 31.20 and second sell above 31.40.

>1.5% in under 30 minutes.


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Heineken-Ashi
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11:07p, 12/9/23
The market is likely going to be very volatile over the next couple of weeks with economic data and FED decision coming on the back of an incredible bull rally. Anything other than a drop is so incredibly long term bullish that none of us can screw it up. But should it take a turn down, please, maintain poise. As the buying opportunity will likely be incredible and lead to immense profits.

Daily beer candles suggest further upside. Weekly seems to be slowing and pointing toward soonish indecision. Indecision within a bull run is a good thing. It resets MACD and RSI and forms a great support zone.

I'm watching 4300-4450 as the next pullback. And if it happens, I'm most likely deploying cash I've had set aside for quite some time.

But please hear this more than anything else. This bull run, no matter how high it gets, is likely to be followed by pain. While it will likely be lucrative, do not hesitate to take profits and turn to cash. RSI is threatining a monthly double top and beer candles point to short term bullishness and potential long term rollover. Anyone with a brain can look at the long term chart and see that its still due a sizeable correction. Remember, 2022 broke the trend channel from COVID. You must expect further downside long term unless the candles can re-emerge within the previous channel. Considering that would require 7000+ SPX, it's not likely. We're long term bear unfortunately.

I'm making progress on the 24 for 24 chart. Hope to have it out by Christmas. My goal is to provide a list of stocks that you can buy that guarantee the best possible returns with the smallest amount of risk.
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oldarmy1
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1:03p, 12/10/23
AG
Historically this week is slightly negative. CPI is the most likely catalyst. Crude is down but inflation in food and most sectors remains high. Could get a surprise report that shapes/reshapes the narrative into the Fed meeting.

Trade what's in front of you.



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Quacked
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:33p, 12/10/23
Do beer candles cause beer runs?
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Quacked • 1:06a, 12/11/23
Quacked said:
Do beer candles cause beer runs?
When you play them right, yes.

They cause other runs when you mess up.
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Heineken-Ashi
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1:17a, 12/11/23
Here's a couple low risk high reward plays that might make the list in 24. I'm not 100% sold that that they are going to perform, but they are so close to their stop that the risk/reward is what we're looking for.

ACAD - I was turned on to this by someone here a month back. It's at $20.98. Trend is pointing down. But the stop is $20.30 which is a 2.7% loss at worst. My minimum target should it take out the $24-$25 level is $33.75, a 51% gain. My max target is gap fill $44.30 for a 93% gain. If you can stomach a $0.70 loss per share for the potential to gain $12-$23, buy tomorrow. Indicators aren't pretty, but it's held above support so far.

AOSL - Similar situation. It's been acting rather confident in its downtrend, but I think it's due a bounce. Currently $22.72. Stop is $20.03. If it can hold above that, minimum target is previous high of $35 with max target of $45. Similar reward with ever so slightly more risk. There's gap fills around $25, $31, and $35. A 50% retracement of the last move down is over $25, so even if you are risk adverse you can move your stop up as you go and get a small win.

Again, both are weak charts. But with stops so close, this is where you take chances. And if both of these confirm bullish path, it will be too late by the time my list comes out. Because the stop will be farther below entry presenting higher risk as the reward will start to shrink. And perhaps they invalidate by then.
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joekm3
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 6:38a, 12/11/23
AG
Over what timeframe do you project this happening?
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to joekm3 • 8:07a, 12/11/23
joekm3 said:
Over what timeframe do you project this happening?



These are plays I identified for 2024. Could be quick like 1-2 months. Could be October or November. Timing is impossible.
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joekm3
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 8:41a, 12/11/23
AG
Thanks. Took a position in ACAD.
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bmoochie
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8:51a, 12/11/23
AG
TELL continues its big move but I got out last week. I want to see if it resets a little but it still feels like there is news coming. Even the option chain is getting movement on various strikes.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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9:13a, 12/11/23
AG
Powl poppin
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MAROON
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In reply to bmoochie • 9:32a, 12/11/23
AG
bankruptcy is their only future. Charif Souki fired by the Board.

technically he's still on the board - but no longer Chairman or CEO. But that might just be temporary until they figure out some sort of severance.
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bmoochie
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In reply to MAROON • 9:33a, 12/11/23
AG
Then that explains the selloff now. Wow
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bmoochie
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9:46a, 12/11/23
AG
I also do not think they go under, Driftwood is still under construction and they just need to get their contracts in place. I don't think the firing is necessarily a bad thing but time will tell of course. Just my opinion and I can talk to my other LNG contacts to see what they are hearing.
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spud1910
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:54a, 12/11/23
AG
Yeah, I mentioned ACAD when my wife was interviewing with them. Thanks for the work you have put into it.
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Talon2DSO
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In reply to bmoochie • 10:02a, 12/11/23
AG
What's your re-entry for TELL?
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MAROON
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In reply to bmoochie • 10:05a, 12/11/23
AG
bmoochie said:
I also do not think they go under, Driftwood is still under construction and they just need to get their contracts in place. I don't think the firing is necessarily a bad thing but time will tell of course. Just my opinion and I can talk to my other LNG contacts to see what they are hearing.
but this has been the same issue for years now. The Contracts are not getting put in place. Maybe that is why he is being fired.
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Talon2DSO
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10:06a, 12/11/23
AG
Sava come alive today
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bmoochie
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In reply to MAROON • 10:08a, 12/11/23
AG
That is kind of what I am thinking and it could actually be a good thing in the long run. Only time will tell.

To answer you Talon I don't know as I want to see how this settles. I may just watch for a bit since my intention was to just flip this with shares for small gain and not a long term hold.
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EnronAg
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10:10a, 12/11/23
AG
SPY about to clip $462.08 and hit a 23 month high...can't stop this market until Nov. election...but the fall after that will be EPIC
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Talon2DSO • 10:15a, 12/11/23
AG
Talon2DSO said:
Sava come alive today

My shares are finally green again!!!
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spud1910
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11:21a, 12/11/23
AG
Shout out to Prog! Thanks for the alert on Tel and Wal. Both up about 15% after you last brought to our attention.
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