Absolutely. The key when these occur is where the first candle closes, above or below. If it pushes above or below the OB but closes back inside, then it's meaningless. What you see on the initial close above or below is a follow through for a few days at the minimum. However, if at tops (or bottoms) the trend reversal becomes long term. When these occur during sideways periods, it's worth special attention. We could breakout to the upside out of this and it would give a high confidence opportunity to trade the upside a few days.EnronAg said:not disagreeing with you at all...but weren't 8/24 and 11/9 true OB days where it closed at lows? and then both of those ended up with 3-4 days of rips to the upside...am I missing something on those days?oldarmy1 said:
ALERT!
Macro markets made an outside bar on the daily. This is a huge warning to reign in activity, be well positioned for large directional movement. The top this summer I had everyone sell out on was an outside bar. Big institutions set these wide range OB to attempt to mask their actions. Last time the OB was also a downside day bar closing near lows. Next two days pushed upward, thus setting the trap before all heck broke loose to the downside.
Doesn't mean this one results in the same, but I automatically reign in trading and act on protection of share positions. If we push upward tomorrow, I use it on any recent call entries to trim down and just wait it out.
My bias had been to the upside until yesterday's technical. All it does is muddy the technical read, so the alert is to signify that it's wise to take an ounce of prevention and pull back on trading until it clears.
Scott took on tracking our trades. Most of November's have closed. SCHW was a mid-October trade that wasn't closed until November for 500%. We're assessing where the trade just be posted. November was a perfect set up for short term trading, so please don't think it represents the norm. This month we are running a high % profitability on shorter term trades, but we have had stop losses. I can post it in December.
Rubber meeting the road - nowhere to hide results.
https://t.co/a0eRDRnkEx
— OA1 Disciplined Trading Service www.OA1Trading.com (@oldarmy1) December 8, 2023
Most November trades were shorter term option trades. $POST & a few others are longer term but have been on the move. I'm not suggesting that every month will yield an average 197% ROI, or 100% success like November, but the managed disciplines work. pic.twitter.com/W3shxz4wfz