+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)Charismatic Megafauna said:
I may regret it, but i bailed hereCharismatic Megafauna said:
Grrr. Gitcha sum Prog
Got in at $229 two weeks ago. Thank Prog!
Stock Markets
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Last: 2 hrs ago by AggieFrog
Got in at $229 two weeks ago. Thank Prog!
Just went off a cliff...
6/2 gap on SPY about to be filled. Next gap down is 5/24 and it's small. We may float down but we might be done with big moves for today.
do any of you good macro guys think we see a 3 handle on SPY/SPX this year???
EnronAg said:
If/when MM's decide to take out magnificent 7, this thing could get ugly. Literally only a handful of stocks is propping this garbage market up. Utilities, financials, discretionary, real estate, small caps are all getting wasted. I just need energy to hang in there thru this.
It just feels like the Carter years to me. Oil is up and the stock market is down. Energy is the only interesting play to me right now.
EnronAg said:
If/when MM's decide to take out magnificent 7, this thing could get ugly. Literally only a handful of stocks is propping this garbage market up. Utilities, financials, discretionary, real estate, small caps are all getting wasted. I just need energy to hang in there thru this.Tumble Weed said:
It just feels like the Carter years to me. Oil is up and the stock market is down. Energy is the only interesting play to me right now.
It's the Carter years on a whole lot of steroids due to it coming on the heels of 15 years of idiotic monetary policy. But yeah, weak leadership and Statist Govt agencies ****ing stuff up further through pen.
Did y'all see what Rick Santelli said yesterday about the forecast for bond markets?+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)Tumble Weed said:
It just feels like the Carter years to me. Oil is up and the stock market is down. Energy is the only interesting play to me right now.Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
It's the Carter years on a whole lot of steroids due to it coming on the heels of 15 years of idiotic monetary policy. But yeah, weak leadership and Statist Govt agencies ****ing stuff up further through pen.
Have you guys seen yields on Bank stocks and other similar high paying dividends? Verzion is at almost 8% yield.
+ 2 more quotes (click to expand)Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
It's the Carter years on a whole lot of steroids due to it coming on the heels of 15 years of idiotic monetary policy. But yeah, weak leadership and Statist Govt agencies ****ing stuff up further through pen.Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:Did y'all see what Rick Santelli said yesterday about the forecast for bond markets?
Have you guys seen yields on Bank stocks and other similar high paying dividends? Verzion is at almost 8% yield.
17% rate on the 10 year. PAIN. The problem isn't going to be the cost of our debt. It's going to be finding buyers.
What did he say about the bond market?+ 2 more quotes (click to expand)Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
It's the Carter years on a whole lot of steroids due to it coming on the heels of 15 years of idiotic monetary policy. But yeah, weak leadership and Statist Govt agencies ****ing stuff up further through pen.Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:Did y'all see what Rick Santelli said yesterday about the forecast for bond markets?
Have you guys seen yields on Bank stocks and other similar high paying dividends? Verzion is at almost 8% yield.
+ 3 more quotes (click to expand)Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:Did y'all see what Rick Santelli said yesterday about the forecast for bond markets?
Have you guys seen yields on Bank stocks and other similar high paying dividends? Verzion is at almost 8% yield.cgh1999 said:
17% rate on the 10 year. PAIN. The problem isn't going to be the cost of our debt. It's going to be finding buyers.
Correct
Is this what you are referencing?+ 2 more quotes (click to expand)Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
It's the Carter years on a whole lot of steroids due to it coming on the heels of 15 years of idiotic monetary policy. But yeah, weak leadership and Statist Govt agencies ****ing stuff up further through pen.Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:Did y'all see what Rick Santelli said yesterday about the forecast for bond markets?
Have you guys seen yields on Bank stocks and other similar high paying dividends? Verzion is at almost 8% yield.
I agree with bolded sentence. I don't think the interest rate/yield going higher to draw in buyers will work. If yield move higher, I think buyers will view it as "junk". Dollar weakens and Commodities (oil) move up. JMO+ 3 more quotes (click to expand)Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:Did y'all see what Rick Santelli said yesterday about the forecast for bond markets?
Have you guys seen yields on Bank stocks and other similar high paying dividends? Verzion is at almost 8% yield.cgh1999 said:
17% rate on the 10 year. PAIN. The problem isn't going to be the cost of our debt. It's going to be finding buyers.
+ 3 more quotes (click to expand)Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:Did y'all see what Rick Santelli said yesterday about the forecast for bond markets?
Have you guys seen yields on Bank stocks and other similar high paying dividends? Verzion is at almost 8% yield.FTAG 2000 said:What did he say about the bond market?
Here is what Rick said:
Could 10-year Treasury rates hit 13%?@RickSantelli charts the path to much, much higher yields, and warns that the Fed is running out of tricks pic.twitter.com/51DfL2R6HF
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) October 2, 2023
Summary:
- potential for a run of the 10YR UST to 13% in the next 7ish years.
- bond market obviously screaming that if the government continues to try and run these bloated spending deficits, it's going to impact the yields higher and bonds lower.
- we are potentially setting up for a mega **** storm that's gonna affect us. The fed has limited to potentially no tools to combat a huge recession because any more excess spending and debt is going to be too costly.
It was a bit of an eye opener IMO
Thank you!
We're going to find out, it's in the .50's now…
TxAgLaw03RW said:
We're going to find out, it's in the .50's now…
Is OA still pumping this one like he has been over the past two years?
I'll be candid and say that I did liquidate 98% of my $WWR holdings and was probably a significant cause behind the drop from $0.601 to $0.57 range.TxAgLaw03RW said:
We're going to find out, it's in the .50's now…JbKing45 said:
Is OA still pumping this one like he has been over the past two years?
It was just at a point where I capitulated and wasn't going to ride it lower.
TxAgLaw03RW said:
We're going to find out, it's in the .50's now…JbKing45 said:
Is OA still pumping this one like he has been over the past two years?
I believe "pounding the table" was the phrase used on multiple occasions (after the spike and fade)
TxAgLaw03RW said:
We're going to find out, it's in the .50's now…JbKing45 said:
Is OA still pumping this one like he has been over the past two years?
he has walked it back now to say that it's still on you if you didn't manage your position well enough to take advantage of the ups
right...he also claimed to have made a mint selling most of his position in after-hours trading.
+ 2 more quotes (click to expand)Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
It's the Carter years on a whole lot of steroids due to it coming on the heels of 15 years of idiotic monetary policy. But yeah, weak leadership and Statist Govt agencies ****ing stuff up further through pen.Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:Did y'all see what Rick Santelli said yesterday about the forecast for bond markets?
Have you guys seen yields on Bank stocks and other similar high paying dividends? Verzion is at almost 8% yield.
For anyone else that likes to capture dividends, $T AT&T goes ex-div on Friday if you want to capture almost 2% on any free cash, just have to buy it on Thursday.
as i have said before... we are on the precipice of a once in a lifetime buying opportunity of everything from boats to stocks... keep that powder dry
+ 4 more quotes (click to expand)FTAG 2000 said:What did he say about the bond market?Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:
Here is what Rick said:Could 10-year Treasury rates hit 13%?@RickSantelli charts the path to much, much higher yields, and warns that the Fed is running out of tricks pic.twitter.com/51DfL2R6HF
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) October 2, 2023
Summary:
- potential for a run of the 10YR UST to 13% in the next 7ish years.
- bond market obviously screaming that if the government continues to try and run these bloated spending deficits, it's going to impact the yields higher and bonds lower.
- we are potentially setting up for a mega **** storm that's gonna affect us. The fed has limited to potentially no tools to combat a huge recession because any more excess spending and debt is going to be too costly.
It was a bit of an eye opener IMO
Anyone with half a functioning brain, especially an economics understanding, has understood since 2010 that our monetary policy was not sustainable.
Rome (America) is indeed burning. We need an American version of Javier Milei to wake up the Idiocracy in this country.
The 2030s is going to look a lot like the 1930s thanks to the Keynesian idiots.
Explain like I'm a child… why would t-bills go up to 13%? And why would it be hard to find buyers?
+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)JbKing45 said:
Is OA still pumping this one like he has been over the past two years?sts7049 said:
he has walked it back now to say that it's still on you if you didn't manage your position well enough to take advantage of the ups
This is what we get for not signing up for the service.
- hashtag fellow bag holder
southernskies said:
Explain like I'm a child… why would t-bills go up to 13%? And why would it be hard to find buyers?
Yields go up as bond prices go down. So people are choosing to sell the bonds and take their cash elsewhere for investing. Which probably puts pressure on current bond holders to also sell less they are ok with further losses in value. So markets are pushing for an equilibrium between yields and prices.
Also doesn't help that our government spending probably needs to be reduced by 30%+ to help erode the $2T budget deficit we are currently running at.
The bond market is an auction market, so when their are no buyers, then prices go down and yields go higher until buyers are interested and buy, locking in higher interest rates.southernskies said:
Explain like I'm a child… why would t-bills go up to 13%? And why would it be hard to find buyers?
China, Japan and several other nations are no longer interested in holding our debt because we are at a significant risk of defaulting on our loans. We are $33+ Trillion in debt and still increasing our spending. Debt service now exceeds our defense spending per year and will eclipse it next year, yet we are still spending. The Dollar will collapse and be worthless, so why would nations buy our worthless paper. Our default is all but inevitable and real pain is coming.
Tl;dr: We're ****ed because our politicians (both parties) are financial dumbasses refuse to drastically cut spending.
Got it, that's helpful.
Isn't almost every other country in debt as well? Or is it just that yes they are in debt but are servicing the debt enough to keep people buying it?
Isn't almost every other country in debt as well? Or is it just that yes they are in debt but are servicing the debt enough to keep people buying it?
That's what I don't get. Everybody is in debt to each other but since we all have our own currency it seems like it's just numbers on a sheet of paper. In theory for equilibrium, there would have to be the same amount of dollars owed than there is lended. Feels like the debt market is really a big charade until someone decides that it's time to shake things up
Yes, but these buyers aren't just moving to other countries' debt. They're moving into corporate bonds or other investments.southernskies said:
Got it, that's helpful.
Isn't almost every other country in debt as well? Or is it just that yes they are in debt but are servicing the debt enough to keep people buying it?
To compound the problem, the fed is still unwinding QE. Independent of fed funds interest rates, there's more supply now that the Fed is managing its balance sheet again and is also buying fewer in the open market.
It's not a net zero. New supply is created all the time.southernskies said:
That's what I don't get. Everybody is in debt to each other but since we all have our own currency it seems like it's just numbers on a sheet of paper. In theory for equilibrium, there would have to be the same amount of dollars owed than there is lended. Feels like the debt market is really a big charade until someone decides that it's time to shake things up
You have to start by distinguishing the Federal Reserve from the Treasury. The Treasury (government) is spending like they're drunken sailors on leave, creating the problems for the Fed.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/treasury-fed-reserve.asp#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20Treasury%20and%20the,supply%20of%20money%20in%20circulation.
southernskies said:
Explain like I'm a child… why would t-bills go up to 13%? And why would it be hard to find buyers?ProgN said:The bond market is an auction market, so when their are no buyers, then prices go down and yields go higher until buyers are interested and buy, locking in higher interest rates.
China, Japan and several other nations are no longer interested in holding our debt because we are at a significant risk of defaulting on our loans. We are $33+ Trillion in debt and still increasing our spending. Debt service now exceeds our defense spending per year and will eclipse it next year, yet we are still spending. The Dollar will collapse and be worthless, so why would nations buy our worthless paper. Our default is all but inevitable and real pain is coming.
Tl;dr: We're ****ed because our politicians (both parties) are financial dumbasses refuse to drastically cut spending.
I think it's probably worth pointing out - if we are screwed, what other countries are going to offer better opportunities?
To me - it's like we are still going to be da belle of da ball. And it's going to be a ****ty ball
Imo, our collapse will bring down several countries then a one world currency and possible government will be implemented to save us all from the chaos they purposely created.+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)ProgN said:The bond market is an auction market, so when their are no buyers, then prices go down and yields go higher until buyers are interested and buy, locking in higher interest rates.
China, Japan and several other nations are no longer interested in holding our debt because we are at a significant risk of defaulting on our loans. We are $33+ Trillion in debt and still increasing our spending. Debt service now exceeds our defense spending per year and will eclipse it next year, yet we are still spending. The Dollar will collapse and be worthless, so why would nations buy our worthless paper. Our default is all but inevitable and real pain is coming.
Tl;dr: We're ****ed because our politicians (both parties) are financial dumbasses refuse to drastically cut spending.Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:
I think it's probably worth pointing out - if we are screwed, what other countries are going to offer better opportunities?
To me - it's like we are still going to be da belle of da ball. And it's going to be a ****ty ball
Yes, but like you said, it's going to be pain across the board.+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)ProgN said:The bond market is an auction market, so when their are no buyers, then prices go down and yields go higher until buyers are interested and buy, locking in higher interest rates.
China, Japan and several other nations are no longer interested in holding our debt because we are at a significant risk of defaulting on our loans. We are $33+ Trillion in debt and still increasing our spending. Debt service now exceeds our defense spending per year and will eclipse it next year, yet we are still spending. The Dollar will collapse and be worthless, so why would nations buy our worthless paper. Our default is all but inevitable and real pain is coming.
Tl;dr: We're ****ed because our politicians (both parties) are financial dumbasses refuse to drastically cut spending.Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:
I think it's probably worth pointing out - if we are screwed, what other countries are going to offer better opportunities?
To me - it's like we are still going to be da belle of da ball. And it's going to be a ****ty ball
The funny thing is, it isn't even that hard to fix our problems. It really isn't, it just isn't popular. Address SS/Medicare/Medicaid, and boom, balanced budget. Everything else is superfluous until those are addressed.
But voters are going to have to feel some more pain before they figure it out. Look how long it has taken Argentina to figure it out. Hell, they just exempted 99% of the country from income taxes and distributed cash to everyone and that candidate is only getting like 30% of the vote. you can't buy the vote forever. But Argentina has been feeling the pain for literally the better part of a century. They thought they had it right in the 90s, but it got away from them again. It's going to have to get a lot worse before it gets better.
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