ProgN said:
That's the one that pays its dividend monthly, correct?
Yes
Stock Markets
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Yes
That indeed is looking cheap. Makes sense with all the angst in commercial office space at the moment.Cyprian said:ProgN said:
That's the one that pays its dividend monthly, correct?
Yes
Well, I've been geared up for downside this week, but I'm starting to wonder if everyone is too bearish.
If 1987 is to happen again, next week should be it.
— THE SHORT BEAR (@TheShortBear) September 24, 2023
Structurally it’s a different world, but these types of events only rhyme.
Scary proposition I see all over Twitter this weekend. pic.twitter.com/GZiAIzPvTA
techno-ag said:That indeed is looking cheap. Makes sense with all the angst in commercial office space at the moment.Cyprian said:ProgN said:
That's the one that pays its dividend monthly, correct?
Yes
They spun off the office holdings in 2021. Currently 83% retail, 13% industrial, 3% gaming and 1% other
techno-ag
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Seems like this thread has slowed way down the last few months
Is it time to take profits with the student loan albatross coming in October? Not to mention the consumer debt being piled on.
I'm leaning towards taking some profits this week.
I'm leaning towards taking some profits this week.
Anastasia Beaverhaven said:
Is it time to take profits with the student loan albatross coming in October? Not to mention the consumer debt being piled on.
I'm leaning towards taking some profits this week.
Good solid companies are always going to be strong companies. I would take profits in retail if it were me.
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
Sold today - $4.38 a share. Was a nice win.Quote:
Possible arbitrage opportunity-- Check Cap... They are developing a colon cancer screening alternative... Symbol: CHEK. They have been offered a buy out at $4.65 a share (2nd offer.. slightly raised from first). Currently trading around $3.15.
The risk is the Check Cap board has not responded yet to the buyout offer.. I took a starter position in it. We shall see.....
SPY picking up steam to run down to 426. It may settle there but I wouldn't rule out a bounce back to 427
looking like we may see that June 2nd gap fill this week...any chances this pullback fills either of the May 5th or even, heaven forbid, the March 29th gaps?
LUMN is why the stock market slays me
I just dont get it...
Business is good...mature company....reaching into retail space....and the stock is still dying
I just dont get it...
Business is good...mature company....reaching into retail space....and the stock is still dying
DeangeloVickers said:
LUMN is why the stock market slays me
I just dont get it...
Business is good...mature company....reaching into retail space....and the stock is still dying
I too purchased LUMN when there was a dividend too
Is business actually good? I don't think so.DeangeloVickers said:
LUMN is why the stock market slays me
I just dont get it...
Business is good...mature company....reaching into retail space....and the stock is still dying
Declining revenue and gross profit for 4 straight years and again on a TTM basis. This decline is being seen across all customer sizes and market groups.
EBT is pretty much break even. Huge goodwill impairment where they themselves are admitting to the lack of success from prior acquisitions that it turns out aren't worth what they paid.
IT purchase cycles are lengthening as budgets tighten and internet services are not a growing market domestically. Slow to adapt and install fiber and now unable to catch up. Exposure, however minor, to lead-sheathed copper clean up.
Balance sheet is a mess (even without taking you into a deep dive, I shouldn't have to tell you that 93.7% Debt to Assets isn't a great capital structure in a rising-rate environment, especially paired with decreasing rev/GP). Based on overall lack of leadership competence, I'm sure that debt structure is a mess and I wouldn't rule out the chance of a default. Even at current levels, leadership is not exercising stock options.
Every part of their business screams to stay away. The debt likely precludes serious buyout talks. Wouldn't surprise me to see a liquidation event. At the very least, if you were a bag-holder you should have sold when the dividend was cut in 2019 or when it was eliminated in 2022.
there are so many articles in the last 2 days discussing the hellscape that is commercial real estate.techno-ag said:That indeed is looking cheap. Makes sense with all the angst in commercial office space at the moment.Cyprian said:ProgN said:
That's the one that pays its dividend monthly, correct?
Yes
we will be lucky to escape this without many more banks failing -
as the office buildings are simply returned back to the loan originators.
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I've had a lower trend line drawn for months that starts with a touch last oct 13 then again march 13, and we just touched it again.
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Aston04 said:Sold today - $4.38 a share. Was a nice win.Quote:
Possible arbitrage opportunity-- Check Cap... They are developing a colon cancer screening alternative... Symbol: CHEK. They have been offered a buy out at $4.65 a share (2nd offer.. slightly raised from first). Currently trading around $3.15.
The risk is the Check Cap board has not responded yet to the buyout offer.. I took a starter position in it. We shall see.....
Thanks for this one!
LMCane said:there are so many articles in the last 2 days discussing the hellscape that is commercial real estate.techno-ag said:That indeed is looking cheap. Makes sense with all the angst in commercial office space at the moment.Cyprian said:ProgN said:
That's the one that pays its dividend monthly, correct?
Yes
we will be lucky to escape this without many more banks failing -
as the office buildings are simply returned back to the loan originators.
A CRE blackswan event is certainly on my bingo card. That AirBnB thing in major metros could send housing prices into a downward spiral but, I think it will take some time. There are so many things in this current market that could sink this ship that we may all bingo at the same time. I went cash in March. Thought about getting into short term bonds but, haven't pulled the trigger. My wife is still buying physical gold and silver when it dips...mostly gold right now. Silver premiums are a bit stout. Good luck to all.
How healthy would y'all say the overall stock market is right now?
Valuations on everything are still far too high.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I would agree as well. Lot's of speculative value priced in. It feels like everyone is maybe willing to sit on their current value even if there is a drop in the market. Yes there is some downside to this market available but logically there is more upside. If you aren't in a stock you are interested in currently, you should see a discount at some point in the next few quarters, likely.
This is just my opinion and what I hear from friends or read elsewhere.
This is just my opinion and what I hear from friends or read elsewhere.
To be more clear, valuations on just about everything are based on an assumption that rates are going to eventually be about half of what they are now, about 2.5-3%.
In reality, rates likely never go under 4% in the future, and might be higher than that for much much longer than ever anticipated.
At this point, other than a handful of premier companies, the growth multiples people are paying for are likely to never going to come to fruition in this economy. When the market realizes that, the multiples will drop as will the book value and share price.
In reality, rates likely never go under 4% in the future, and might be higher than that for much much longer than ever anticipated.
At this point, other than a handful of premier companies, the growth multiples people are paying for are likely to never going to come to fruition in this economy. When the market realizes that, the multiples will drop as will the book value and share price.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
$FIVE - Five Below
anyone?
Kate McShane with Goldman Sachs has a price target of $226, which is a 44% premium over the current price.
anyone?
Kate McShane with Goldman Sachs has a price target of $226, which is a 44% premium over the current price.
SPY gap from 6/2 filled and having a hard bounce off it....my guess is a few days of retracement before taking a leg lower and testing that 5/5 gap around $407...
Some wild swings today.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Y'all tired of winning yet?
XOM holders....$125 is doable...$130 is fair value....Farmer says $148 is in the card IF spreads hold. All by EOY numbers. I told you months ago the WTI:Brent spread would go neutral. "Oil-is-Oil" is a tight supply scenario. Further, the EIA info continues to be BS. You dont have record oil production professed today when you go from 725 oil rigs in Jan 2023 to 507 oil rigs today. The math does not square one bit. Note, articles are written as "estimates" for oil production because they're trying to make it look like we have more than we do. EIA rebenchmarked how they calculate inventory and production - its bogus. The big factor happened today. Cushing, OK is the 100 million barrel facility that supplies refineries. They operate generally with 60 to 80 million barrels. Once you get to 25 million barrels of inventory - that's a red light flashing. Todays EIA report put Cushing inventory at 22 million barrels. There will be continued draws. Someone(s) is going to determine what refineries will get crude to make refined products or who will have to idle. It's coming. Fill your gas tank on the way home! In my doctors office for an issue. Y'all have a good day. Gotta go.
XOM holders....$125 is doable...$130 is fair value....Farmer says $148 is in the card IF spreads hold. All by EOY numbers. I told you months ago the WTI:Brent spread would go neutral. "Oil-is-Oil" is a tight supply scenario. Further, the EIA info continues to be BS. You dont have record oil production professed today when you go from 725 oil rigs in Jan 2023 to 507 oil rigs today. The math does not square one bit. Note, articles are written as "estimates" for oil production because they're trying to make it look like we have more than we do. EIA rebenchmarked how they calculate inventory and production - its bogus. The big factor happened today. Cushing, OK is the 100 million barrel facility that supplies refineries. They operate generally with 60 to 80 million barrels. Once you get to 25 million barrels of inventory - that's a red light flashing. Todays EIA report put Cushing inventory at 22 million barrels. There will be continued draws. Someone(s) is going to determine what refineries will get crude to make refined products or who will have to idle. It's coming. Fill your gas tank on the way home! In my doctors office for an issue. Y'all have a good day. Gotta go.
TTUArmy said:LMCane said:there are so many articles in the last 2 days discussing the hellscape that is commercial real estate.techno-ag said:That indeed is looking cheap. Makes sense with all the angst in commercial office space at the moment.Cyprian said:ProgN said:
That's the one that pays its dividend monthly, correct?
Yes
we will be lucky to escape this without many more banks failing -
as the office buildings are simply returned back to the loan originators.
A CRE blackswan event is certainly on my bingo card. That AirBnB thing in major metros could send housing prices into a downward spiral but, I think it will take some time. There are so many things in this current market that could sink this ship that we may all bingo at the same time. I went cash in March. Thought about getting into short term bonds but, haven't pulled the trigger. My wife is still buying physical gold and silver when it dips...mostly gold right now. Silver premiums are a bit stout. Good luck to all.
I think you are are analyzing events correctly.
I got tired of winning at $117
I think the most active users switched to telegramAndrew Dufresne said:
Seems like this thread has slowed way down the last few months
SIAP but for those that owned it and haven't noticed...Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) was apparently purchased by OKE. I wasn't aware that was happening as I haven't checked in on it in a little bit. A large cash input hit my Tiller spreadsheet this morning titled Merger Payout and that was a brief WTF moment.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Two thingsFarmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Y'all tired of winning yet?
XOM holders....$125 is doable...$130 is fair value....Farmer says $148 is in the card IF spreads hold. All by EOY numbers. I told you months ago the WTI:Brent spread would go neutral. "Oil-is-Oil" is a tight supply scenario. Further, the EIA info continues to be BS. You dont have record oil production professed today when you go from 725 oil rigs in Jan 2023 to 507 oil rigs today. The math does not square one bit. Note, articles are written as "estimates" for oil production because they're trying to make it look like we have more than we do. EIA rebenchmarked how they calculate inventory and production - its bogus. The big factor happened today. Cushing, OK is the 100 million barrel facility that supplies refineries. They operate generally with 60 to 80 million barrels. Once you get to 25 million barrels of inventory - that's a red light flashing. Todays EIA report put Cushing inventory at 22 million barrels. There will be continued draws. Someone(s) is going to determine what refineries will get crude to make refined products or who will have to idle. It's coming. Fill your gas tank on the way home! In my doctors office for an issue. Y'all have a good day. Gotta go.
1.) That Cushing inventory is real, regardless that EIA publishes it. EIA hasn't jacked with that number.
2.) If anyone happens to know the hierarchical system or structure as to "who" strategically gets to receive oil in times of supply tightness, and wants to share that info, that's the refiner(s) you want to buy and load up.
I just bought a starter position in $DNA. The just announced a partnership with PFE focused on the discovery of RNA based drug candidates. The 10/20 2c is getting some action - my plan is sell at 2.30 and a stop at 1.57. I'm playing shares.
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In regards to #2..... Would Valero be one of those refiners?Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Two thingsFarmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Y'all tired of winning yet?
XOM holders....$125 is doable...$130 is fair value....Farmer says $148 is in the card IF spreads hold. All by EOY numbers. I told you months ago the WTI:Brent spread would go neutral. "Oil-is-Oil" is a tight supply scenario. Further, the EIA info continues to be BS. You dont have record oil production professed today when you go from 725 oil rigs in Jan 2023 to 507 oil rigs today. The math does not square one bit. Note, articles are written as "estimates" for oil production because they're trying to make it look like we have more than we do. EIA rebenchmarked how they calculate inventory and production - its bogus. The big factor happened today. Cushing, OK is the 100 million barrel facility that supplies refineries. They operate generally with 60 to 80 million barrels. Once you get to 25 million barrels of inventory - that's a red light flashing. Todays EIA report put Cushing inventory at 22 million barrels. There will be continued draws. Someone(s) is going to determine what refineries will get crude to make refined products or who will have to idle. It's coming. Fill your gas tank on the way home! In my doctors office for an issue. Y'all have a good day. Gotta go.
1.) That Cushing inventory is real, regardless that EIA publishes it. EIA hasn't jacked with that number.
2.) If anyone happens to know the hierarchical system or structure as to "who" strategically gets to receive oil in times of supply tightness, and wants to share that info, that's the refiner(s) you want to buy and load up.
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Spoke to someone very very high up in a crude outfit.... Bullet points of our conversationFarmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Two thingsFarmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Y'all tired of winning yet?
XOM holders....$125 is doable...$130 is fair value....Farmer says $148 is in the card IF spreads hold. All by EOY numbers. I told you months ago the WTI:Brent spread would go neutral. "Oil-is-Oil" is a tight supply scenario. Further, the EIA info continues to be BS. You dont have record oil production professed today when you go from 725 oil rigs in Jan 2023 to 507 oil rigs today. The math does not square one bit. Note, articles are written as "estimates" for oil production because they're trying to make it look like we have more than we do. EIA rebenchmarked how they calculate inventory and production - its bogus. The big factor happened today. Cushing, OK is the 100 million barrel facility that supplies refineries. They operate generally with 60 to 80 million barrels. Once you get to 25 million barrels of inventory - that's a red light flashing. Todays EIA report put Cushing inventory at 22 million barrels. There will be continued draws. Someone(s) is going to determine what refineries will get crude to make refined products or who will have to idle. It's coming. Fill your gas tank on the way home! In my doctors office for an issue. Y'all have a good day. Gotta go.
1.) That Cushing inventory is real, regardless that EIA publishes it. EIA hasn't jacked with that number.
2.) If anyone happens to know the hierarchical system or structure as to "who" strategically gets to receive oil in times of supply tightness, and wants to share that info, that's the refiner(s) you want to buy and load up.
- Probably would stay away from leaning into refinery equities here
- If have some active, this would be a good time to sell a portion to lock in profits
- Cushing is already in protection mode. Backwardation makes it hard to work exports and there is already flow being rerouted to Cushing for October delivery
-Trafigura being the main trade shop doing that play
- For September, USG will match previous export high of 4.5mmbd so that gives color on how Cushing started drawing so hard
- This is all spurred by high Chinese oil demand countering other Asian demand decline. Europe is still healthy enough margins to keep buying crude, similar to US
- China has export quotas on product exports than can make their demand go down as quotas expire
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