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Last: 41 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Charismatic Megafauna
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cryption said:
I just bought a starter position in $DNA. The just announced a partnership with PFE focused on the discovery of RNA based drug candidates. The 10/20 2c is getting some action - my plan is sell at 2.30 and a stop at 1.57. I'm playing shares.
Could do a buy-write on those oct calls for 1.65 basis or 20% return in 20 days
Not a bad idea, my plan is to see where she sits in December - Lots of OI on those Dec 2.5c and 3c. Plus they're working hard on partnerships
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I don't know the answer to your question. I am seeking it.
Here's a good article.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/cushing-oil-hubs-low-levels-spur-quality-operational-price-worries-2023-09-26/
Here's a good article.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/cushing-oil-hubs-low-levels-spur-quality-operational-price-worries-2023-09-26/
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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If you own refinery stocks would you sell them before Q3 ER's?Mostly Foggy Recollection said:
We are in very peculiar times in regards to refinery inventory…. DO NOT GET BALLS DEEP IN refinery stocks and if you are in them, take your profit or cut your loss.
If anything I would sell premium.
Oil Prices Are Rising. Shale Isn't Coming to the Rescue. (msn.com)
WSJ article. Its interesting that the majors don't plant to ramp up production with high oil prices. what does that mean for stock prices?
TIA
WSJ article. Its interesting that the majors don't plant to ramp up production with high oil prices. what does that mean for stock prices?
TIA
What got in SPY's britches?
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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AG
No one wants to spend cash on anything but the essentials. Lenders wont open up the debt coffers to fund any capex ventures and I'd be surprised if the economics work on it.Towns03 said:
Oil Prices Are Rising. Shale Isn't Coming to the Rescue. (msn.com)
WSJ article. Its interesting that the majors don't plant to ramp up production with high oil prices. what does that mean for stock prices?
TIA
Long story short - We all should have been listening to Farm when he was talking about the coming shortfall of supply and how Uncle PeePaw and his band of friends was gonna encourage US producers to cover the slack.
Just baffling the level of incompetence - gives new meaning to Gooberment.
I think just some retracing. There is a gap from 9/21 so maybe it get's filled.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Charismatic Megafauna said:
Price went down, but prog and 30k say smci goes up. That's a strong buy signal!
I may regret it, but i bailed here
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In tough times, food, fuel, smokes & booze is where money is spent and gets you through. I'm very overweight in energy, but I have other stuff that is doggy too. I'm not perfect in investing or trading. I do think this -Towns03 said:
Oil Prices Are Rising. Shale Isn't Coming to the Rescue. (msn.com)
WSJ article. Its interesting that the majors don't plant to ramp up production with high oil prices. what does that mean for stock prices?
TIA
Saudi will drive the energy bus for a long time. I think energy is in short supply definitely today through June 2024. Second half of 2024 there "might" be some activity to increase oil production. The current Administration will continue the Green Energy Hoax commitment and if that happens (and should happen) the June 2024 timeframe gets extended until Dec 2024.
If Nov 2024 yields an energy friendly President, U.S. Big Oil will ramp, but the ramping effects would only begin to appear in April 2025 and no real impact until June/July 2025. Energy equities may drop in anticipation, but the ramping is likely not enough to satisfy demand. We will have gone 4 years without significant capex investment dollars going back into the O&G business. 3% is generally regarded as the optimal growth to plan for. 4 years X 3% is a 12% deficit once ramping starts.
Saudi knows all the above. They'll control flow to keep $93 oil, or higher. If Saudi sees a build in the market, they'll just take their production to storage. They'll balance the market.
If JP raises rates a quarter point, once or twice more, I think he blows the U.S. economy up - tanks the markets. I know a second one-quarter point hike starts consuming the Federal Budget. So,...Congress cuts Social Security or Medicare to service the debt.....with an election coming up? LOL! I do think JP is done with hiking rates.
JMO
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Keep an eye on that Baker Hughes Report this Friday. The number to look at is Oil Rigs in U.S., not gas rigs or misc rigs. 507 was last Friday's number for operating rigs and it was down 8 from the previous week. I bet we lose 3 rigs this week.
even the CNBC puffers at today's public conference
were discussing the upcoming recession, some even stating it would be best to stay in cash and bonds...
were discussing the upcoming recession, some even stating it would be best to stay in cash and bonds...
do you have a link to the Baker Hughes Report?Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Keep an eye on that Baker Hughes Report this Friday. The number to look at is Oil Rigs in U.S., not gas rigs or misc rigs. 507 was last Friday's number for operating rigs and it was down 8 from the previous week. I bet we lose 3 rigs this week.
txaggieacct85 said:do you have a link to the Baker Hughes Report?Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Keep an eye on that Baker Hughes Report this Friday. The number to look at is Oil Rigs in U.S., not gas rigs or misc rigs. 507 was last Friday's number for operating rigs and it was down 8 from the previous week. I bet we lose 3 rigs this week.
https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/
Charismatic Megafauna
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
If JP raises rates a quarter point, once or twice more, I think he blows the U.S. economy up - tanks the markets. I know a second one-quarter point hike starts consuming the Federal Budget. So,...Congress cuts Social Security or Medicare to service the debt.....with an election coming up? LOL! I do think JP is done with hiking rates.
JMO
So is it best to just save cash right now or just keep investing into an S&P index fund for someone who's 25-30 years from retirement? (Aside from Roth/401k contributions)
i am on the sidelines until Q2 next year with new cash. Still full 401k contribution but trying to hoard cash until then.El_duderino said:
So is it best to just save cash right now or just keep investing into an S&P index fund for someone who's 25-30 years from retirement? (Aside from Roth/401k contributions)
Thanks. That's the direction i was leaning towards
to be clear. I think there is too much uncertainty over the next 6 months to have any real confidence in market direction. If I miss a run so be it.El_duderino said:
Thanks. That's the direction i was leaning towards
Oh yes, definitely understand where you're coming from.
Warren Buffett during market volatility. pic.twitter.com/oT8V0KdTKC
— Brandon Beylo (@marketplunger1) September 27, 2023
Isn't it the saying "time in the market vs timing the market" or something of that nature?
Bless you staff
I certainly didn't intend to impact the thread with my new business venture.
To members of OA1:While I do not want my specific stock picks placed on any social media platforms, I do not mind someone posting my macro calls. Example would be "OA just called a bottom entry for markets" when I gave that in real time Wednesday below my previously targeted flash below 4290 Dec futures.
Another example would be my stating since July outside bar top saying to cash out and sit on the sidelines. Both of those can give macro guidance to people here without the specific trades and strategies being given via the service.
Best to all!
To members of OA1:While I do not want my specific stock picks placed on any social media platforms, I do not mind someone posting my macro calls. Example would be "OA just called a bottom entry for markets" when I gave that in real time Wednesday below my previously targeted flash below 4290 Dec futures.
Another example would be my stating since July outside bar top saying to cash out and sit on the sidelines. Both of those can give macro guidance to people here without the specific trades and strategies being given via the service.
Best to all!
Good luck with your business. I am too small to consider joining the service but the drop off on this thread should have been expected. It's not entirely the new business, I think the market is in a weird position and there isn't much to say for those on this thread.
But seriously, good luck and maybe one day I will join.
But seriously, good luck and maybe one day I will join.
Tough decision at open this morning if your wanting to play SPY options. Gap from 9/21 is staring right at you and this morning created a small gap up.
Now, I firmly believe the market is headed to the downside, and if this morning gap stays, it is setting up to fill 9/21 gap then head back down. Again, just my opinion and what I am seeing.
Thoughts?
Now, I firmly believe the market is headed to the downside, and if this morning gap stays, it is setting up to fill 9/21 gap then head back down. Again, just my opinion and what I am seeing.
Thoughts?
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Yes
OK Prog, SMCI hanging around $280 this morning. Was this a stock you are planting or looking at trimming?
I'm in VIX calls
I'm planting it but others trade it and it's made a nice move. It's held up nicely this month which hasn't been a good one. If October is rough, then you can buy it back on a dip. If October is good, then I expect it to fill that huge gap above it. So there's really not a bad choice, but you have to decide for yourself.spud1910 said:
OK Prog, SMCI hanging around $280 this morning. Was this a stock you are planting or looking at trimming?
ETA:
Super Micro CEO Charles Liang: Our growth can be very strong in the next few years (cnbc.com)
ETA2:
If you have 100 shrs, writing CC's is highly profitable. Look at the premiums available week to week, they are phat.
ProgN said:I'm planting it but others trade it and it's made a nice move. It's held up nicely this month which hasn't been a good one. If October is rough, then you can buy it back on a dip. If October is good, then I expect it to fill that huge gap above it. So there's really not a bad choice, but you have to decide for yourself.spud1910 said:
OK Prog, SMCI hanging around $280 this morning. Was this a stock you are planting or looking at trimming?
ETA:
Super Micro CEO Charles Liang: Our growth can be very strong in the next few years (cnbc.com)
ETA2:
If you have 100 shrs, writing CC's is highly profitable. Look at the premiums available week to week, they are phat.
So is writing naked puts at prices you wouldn't mind owning it at
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