BT1395 said:

---

Sounds like there's plenty of room for you to continue your short position. Good luck!

---

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

---

Quick check in.

Just want to thank everyone for their thoughts and prayers for Mrs. Farmer. Surgery went as well as can be. Tomorrow we should learn from pathology if chemo, radiation or other will be necessary. Hopefully they got it all in surgery.

Hope you are long energy. EIA continues to manipulate weekly report data. It's so blatant and so sad at the same time. The key word to watch if you are reading articles, "estimates". Popular articles are being written and using the EIA numbers to try and make it appear there's lots of crude. Somewhere in the article will tell you it's based on "estimates" and "projections". The estimates and projections are wrong or more aptly put - it's an effin lie. Rigs are in decline (Baker Hughes reported a one (1) rig increase last week). Record production reported in past few months with ~200 fewer rigs than January 2023. That tells you the story. So much more water under the bridge since my last post. Just know, Saudi is telling the truth. They (OPEC) aren't lying as in the past. They have been telling the truth for last 2+ years.

XOM ATH is $119. Today I sold Nov $125 Strike - my entire position. If the shares are taken, I can live with it. It's an uphill battle for XOM entering new high territory, and facing the ATH's I think it made good sense for me. Q3 earnings will come out in Oct with a 'beat' and a div increase will likely be announced and give a boost to the shares. So, I may lose the shares or reposition the Options. I'm not leaving energy and I continue to be bullish into 2024. I own XOMO also. (BTW, YieldMax introduced a JP Morgan product this morning JPMO. I dont know the trade date yet.)

Thank you again for the thoughts and prayers. May God bless all of you.

---

jj9000 said:

---

Why not XYLD or QYLD ?

---

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

---

ProgN said:

---

Thought you and others that deal in real estate would be interested in the following article. I'd like y'alls opinion on the matter and respect you guys.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property-value/article-12509755/home-prices-housing-market-prices.html

---

I don't think he's wrong truthfully, but there is more to it. I would agree in saying that baby boomers have been strong drivers of demand over the last decade because they have the ability to bring cash to seal the deal. Either that means a large chunk as a down-payment or forgoing the mortgage entirely because they have the cash to buy outright.

When rates were low in the pandemic - you were primarily competing against other dual-income/high income couples OR 55+ adults who had a large bank account. That made it incredibly tough to compete against if you weren't in those categories or weren't willing to overpay for the house to win it.

Now that rates have substantially risen - you have essentially eliminated most buyers who use debt (including the dual/high income earners) because the property that they want to buy comes with a 6-7% handle on the debt - so it's not affordable or worth it to them to really pursue a deal and give up the 3% interest rate they have currently. They are only buying/selling because they have to for jobs, relocation, etc.

This really just leaves those baby boomers who have:

1. Smartly saved over the years, paid off their home and can sell for a lot of cash to "downsize" to be near their kids & grand kids
2. Who were lucky to inherit their parent's (greatest generation) house and wealth after they passed away. What we've seen here is they typically sell their parent's home and then buy another home elsewhere to be near friends, retired focused communities or move to be near grand kids.

This market is left to themselves and those who have the cash or intestinal fortitude to accept that higher 7% interest rate.

And everyone is hoping for rates to drop and will flood the market to start buying - but I have to caution against that because the Fed is aware and might not be so quick to drop the rates. Because if they do drop them and create a "gold rush" you're going to see the similar trends like the pandemic where people are overpaying and pushing property prices up - which further exacerbates the same issues that caused to hike rates in the first place (at least real estate focused issues - not so much the supply chains)

---

South Platte said:

---

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

---

ProgN said:

---

Thought you and others that deal in real estate would be interested in the following article. I'd like y'alls opinion on the matter and respect you guys.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property-value/article-12509755/home-prices-housing-market-prices.html

---

I don't think he's wrong truthfully, but there is more to it. I would agree in saying that baby boomers have been strong drivers of demand over the last decade because they have the ability to bring cash to seal the deal. Either that means a large chunk as a down-payment or forgoing the mortgage entirely because they have the cash to buy outright.

When rates were low in the pandemic - you were primarily competing against other dual-income/high income couples OR 55+ adults who had a large bank account. That made it incredibly tough to compete against if you weren't in those categories or weren't willing to overpay for the house to win it.

Now that rates have substantially risen - you have essentially eliminated most buyers who use debt (including the dual/high income earners) because the property that they want to buy comes with a 6-7% handle on the debt - so it's not affordable or worth it to them to really pursue a deal and give up the 3% interest rate they have currently. They are only buying/selling because they have to for jobs, relocation, etc.

This really just leaves those baby boomers who have:

1. Smartly saved over the years, paid off their home and can sell for a lot of cash to "downsize" to be near their kids & grand kids
2. Who were lucky to inherit their parent's (greatest generation) house and wealth after they passed away. What we've seen here is they typically sell their parent's home and then buy another home elsewhere to be near friends, retired focused communities or move to be near grand kids.

This market is left to themselves and those who have the cash or intestinal fortitude to accept that higher 7% interest rate.

And everyone is hoping for rates to drop and will flood the market to start buying - but I have to caution against that because the Fed is aware and might not be so quick to drop the rates. Because if they do drop them and create a "gold rush" you're going to see the similar trends like the pandemic where people are overpaying and pushing property prices up - which further exacerbates the same issues that caused to hike rates in the first place (at least real estate focused issues - not so much the supply chains)

---

For those us looking to purchase an investment property, and have the cash to breakeven on the rental income vs. mortgage payment, would now be a good time to get in? Seems like we would have leverage against certain sellers that might be willing to take a lower offer after the property has sat on the market for a month or so.

I would think prices would stay flat while rates are high, then increase again as rates fall toward mid 5's.

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

---

1% rule (aka monthly rent = 1% of the purchase price) because you'd still be overpaying on a valuation basis. So if you can find those diamonds that have $1500 a month in rent and going to pay $150K for it, do it.

---

Does this actually exist anymore, outside of the slummiest of slumlord scenarios? I thought it had been gone for 15 years

---

ProgN said:

---

OPEC just said that global oil markets will face a massive supply shortfall next quarter.

They expect a supply shortfall of more than 3 million barrels per day.

If OPEC is correct, it would result in the biggest inventory drawdown since 2007.

Voluntary production cuts by OPEC… pic.twitter.com/9I1ZPWrzU8

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 13, 2023

---

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

---

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

---

1% rule (aka monthly rent = 1% of the purchase price) because you'd still be overpaying on a valuation basis. So if you can find those diamonds that have $1500 a month in rent and going to pay $150K for it, do it.

---

Does this actually exist anymore, outside of the slummiest of slumlord scenarios? I thought it had been gone for 15 years

---

It really doesn't unless you got lucky or were able to build/develop something with a favorable cost basis.

But on a fundamental basis - does it really make sense to pay a 3% cap rate on a SFR when you're leverage is costing you 7%? Or you can obtain an alternative investment yielding you 5%?

---

ProgN said:

---

I just posted it to credit Farmer.

---

ProgN said:

---

OPEC just said that global oil markets will face a massive supply shortfall next quarter.

They expect a supply shortfall of more than 3 million barrels per day.

If OPEC is correct, it would result in the biggest inventory drawdown since 2007.

Voluntary production cuts by OPEC… pic.twitter.com/9I1ZPWrzU8

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 13, 2023

---