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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Quick check in.

Just want to thank everyone for their thoughts and prayers for Mrs. Farmer. Surgery went as well as can be. Tomorrow we should learn from pathology if chemo, radiation or other will be necessary. Hopefully they got it all in surgery.

Hope you are long energy. EIA continues to manipulate weekly report data. It's so blatant and so sad at the same time. The key word to watch if you are reading articles, "estimates". Popular articles are being written and using the EIA numbers to try and make it appear there's lots of crude. Somewhere in the article will tell you it's based on "estimates" and "projections". The estimates and projections are wrong or more aptly put - it's an effin lie. Rigs are in decline (Baker Hughes reported a one (1) rig increase last week). Record production reported in past few months with ~200 fewer rigs than January 2023. That tells you the story. So much more water under the bridge since my last post. Just know, Saudi is telling the truth. They (OPEC) aren't lying as in the past. They have been telling the truth for last 2+ years.

XOM ATH is $119. Today I sold Nov $125 Strike - my entire position. If the shares are taken, I can live with it. It's an uphill battle for XOM entering new high territory, and facing the ATH's I think it made good sense for me. Q3 earnings will come out in Oct with a 'beat' and a div increase will likely be announced and give a boost to the shares. So, I may lose the shares or reposition the Options. I'm not leaving energy and I continue to be bullish into 2024. I own XOMO also. (BTW, YieldMax introduced a JP Morgan product this morning JPMO. I dont know the trade date yet.)

Thank you again for the thoughts and prayers. May God bless all of you.
TheVarian
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Glad to hear y'all are persevering through this. I've been down that road with my dad a few times so if you ever need a ear to bend feel freee to message me.

Praying for Mrs. Farmer, and for y'all's journey battling this stuff.
$30,000 Millionaire
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BT1395 said:

Sounds like there's plenty of room for you to continue your short position. Good luck!
I made money long on it today!
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AAPL nearing support?

I took a bit of profits a couple months back around $182. Tempted to buy some of that back right now.
SW AG80
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Isn't Apple's announcement soon?
Brian Earl Spilner
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In progress. Already down but could go lower.
TheVarian
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They didn't really produce any "wow" things. Just the typical "upgrades" on the watched and iPhones. Meh
Heineken-Ashi
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AAPL support is $171. Below $168 (50W EMA), which is my stop if I'm in, and it leaves my radar until it approaches the 200W EMA between $135 and $155.

If daily candles start an uptrend above support and I'm in, I'm looking for $200 to sell at least 50% and at $210 I'm out with everything except some runners.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I bleed maroon
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Quick check in.

Just want to thank everyone for their thoughts and prayers for Mrs. Farmer. Surgery went as well as can be. Tomorrow we should learn from pathology if chemo, radiation or other will be necessary. Hopefully they got it all in surgery.

Hope you are long energy. EIA continues to manipulate weekly report data. It's so blatant and so sad at the same time. The key word to watch if you are reading articles, "estimates". Popular articles are being written and using the EIA numbers to try and make it appear there's lots of crude. Somewhere in the article will tell you it's based on "estimates" and "projections". The estimates and projections are wrong or more aptly put - it's an effin lie. Rigs are in decline (Baker Hughes reported a one (1) rig increase last week). Record production reported in past few months with ~200 fewer rigs than January 2023. That tells you the story. So much more water under the bridge since my last post. Just know, Saudi is telling the truth. They (OPEC) aren't lying as in the past. They have been telling the truth for last 2+ years.

XOM ATH is $119. Today I sold Nov $125 Strike - my entire position. If the shares are taken, I can live with it. It's an uphill battle for XOM entering new high territory, and facing the ATH's I think it made good sense for me. Q3 earnings will come out in Oct with a 'beat' and a div increase will likely be announced and give a boost to the shares. So, I may lose the shares or reposition the Options. I'm not leaving energy and I continue to be bullish into 2024. I own XOMO also. (BTW, YieldMax introduced a JP Morgan product this morning JPMO. I dont know the trade date yet.)

Thank you again for the thoughts and prayers. May God bless all of you.
Best wishes and prayers to you all. I have two close relatives in similar situations, and it can be trying, to say the least.

Sounds like you have some interest in YieldMax offerings, as I do. I guess their XOMO (and JPMO, as well I guess) is an attempt to supercharge the native dividends, as opposed to the non-dividend-paying growth stocks they specialized in previously. I posted a thread on YieldMax, and would be very interested in your take on these instruments, only if you ever have any extra time:

https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3394319
Brian Earl Spilner
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spud1910
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Good to see you back. Continue to pray for you both. Hope all is well on the report.
I bleed maroon
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jj9000 said:

Why not XYLD or QYLD ?
Sure, if you're looking for a similar strategy on a broad index. Probably much more appropriate for most people, actually.

The YieldMax approach is unique in that it's single growth stocks (mostly) that typically don't pay a dividend, so using their buy-write sort of strategy, they can turn a pure growth stock into a growth-and-income play. As I said, it's not for everybody (and is very unproven, at this point). If you're interested in discussing further, we should probably continue on the other thread (to avoid cluttering this one up).
ProgN
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Thought you and others that deal in real estate would be interested in the following article. I'd like y'alls opinion on the matter and respect you guys.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property-value/article-12509755/home-prices-housing-market-prices.html
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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ProgN said:

Thought you and others that deal in real estate would be interested in the following article. I'd like y'alls opinion on the matter and respect you guys.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property-value/article-12509755/home-prices-housing-market-prices.html
I don't think he's wrong truthfully, but there is more to it. I would agree in saying that baby boomers have been strong drivers of demand over the last decade because they have the ability to bring cash to seal the deal. Either that means a large chunk as a down-payment or forgoing the mortgage entirely because they have the cash to buy outright.

When rates were low in the pandemic - you were primarily competing against other dual-income/high income couples OR 55+ adults who had a large bank account. That made it incredibly tough to compete against if you weren't in those categories or weren't willing to overpay for the house to win it.

Now that rates have substantially risen - you have essentially eliminated most buyers who use debt (including the dual/high income earners) because the property that they want to buy comes with a 6-7% handle on the debt - so it's not affordable or worth it to them to really pursue a deal and give up the 3% interest rate they have currently. They are only buying/selling because they have to for jobs, relocation, etc.

This really just leaves those baby boomers who have:

1. Smartly saved over the years, paid off their home and can sell for a lot of cash to "downsize" to be near their kids & grand kids
2. Who were lucky to inherit their parent's (greatest generation) house and wealth after they passed away. What we've seen here is they typically sell their parent's home and then buy another home elsewhere to be near friends, retired focused communities or move to be near grand kids.

This market is left to themselves and those who have the cash or intestinal fortitude to accept that higher 7% interest rate.

And everyone is hoping for rates to drop and will flood the market to start buying - but I have to caution against that because the Fed is aware and might not be so quick to drop the rates. Because if they do drop them and create a "gold rush" you're going to see the similar trends like the pandemic where people are overpaying and pushing property prices up - which further exacerbates the same issues that caused to hike rates in the first place (at least real estate focused issues - not so much the supply chains)



FishrCoAg
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Back from a brief hiatus (thanks, F16!). Just want to say my prayers are with you and Mrs. Farmer, and I really appreciate your input here.
gougler08
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CROX lost that support level so I'm out of that one until something signals a rebound
South Platte
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Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

ProgN said:

Thought you and others that deal in real estate would be interested in the following article. I'd like y'alls opinion on the matter and respect you guys.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property-value/article-12509755/home-prices-housing-market-prices.html
I don't think he's wrong truthfully, but there is more to it. I would agree in saying that baby boomers have been strong drivers of demand over the last decade because they have the ability to bring cash to seal the deal. Either that means a large chunk as a down-payment or forgoing the mortgage entirely because they have the cash to buy outright.

When rates were low in the pandemic - you were primarily competing against other dual-income/high income couples OR 55+ adults who had a large bank account. That made it incredibly tough to compete against if you weren't in those categories or weren't willing to overpay for the house to win it.

Now that rates have substantially risen - you have essentially eliminated most buyers who use debt (including the dual/high income earners) because the property that they want to buy comes with a 6-7% handle on the debt - so it's not affordable or worth it to them to really pursue a deal and give up the 3% interest rate they have currently. They are only buying/selling because they have to for jobs, relocation, etc.

This really just leaves those baby boomers who have:

1. Smartly saved over the years, paid off their home and can sell for a lot of cash to "downsize" to be near their kids & grand kids
2. Who were lucky to inherit their parent's (greatest generation) house and wealth after they passed away. What we've seen here is they typically sell their parent's home and then buy another home elsewhere to be near friends, retired focused communities or move to be near grand kids.

This market is left to themselves and those who have the cash or intestinal fortitude to accept that higher 7% interest rate.

And everyone is hoping for rates to drop and will flood the market to start buying - but I have to caution against that because the Fed is aware and might not be so quick to drop the rates. Because if they do drop them and create a "gold rush" you're going to see the similar trends like the pandemic where people are overpaying and pushing property prices up - which further exacerbates the same issues that caused to hike rates in the first place (at least real estate focused issues - not so much the supply chains)




For those us looking to purchase an investment property, and have the cash to breakeven on the rental income vs. mortgage payment, would now be a good time to get in? Seems like we would have leverage against certain sellers that might be willing to take a lower offer after the property has sat on the market for a month or so.

I would think prices would stay flat while rates are high, then increase again as rates fall toward mid 5's.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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South Platte said:

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

ProgN said:

Thought you and others that deal in real estate would be interested in the following article. I'd like y'alls opinion on the matter and respect you guys.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property-value/article-12509755/home-prices-housing-market-prices.html
I don't think he's wrong truthfully, but there is more to it. I would agree in saying that baby boomers have been strong drivers of demand over the last decade because they have the ability to bring cash to seal the deal. Either that means a large chunk as a down-payment or forgoing the mortgage entirely because they have the cash to buy outright.

When rates were low in the pandemic - you were primarily competing against other dual-income/high income couples OR 55+ adults who had a large bank account. That made it incredibly tough to compete against if you weren't in those categories or weren't willing to overpay for the house to win it.

Now that rates have substantially risen - you have essentially eliminated most buyers who use debt (including the dual/high income earners) because the property that they want to buy comes with a 6-7% handle on the debt - so it's not affordable or worth it to them to really pursue a deal and give up the 3% interest rate they have currently. They are only buying/selling because they have to for jobs, relocation, etc.

This really just leaves those baby boomers who have:

1. Smartly saved over the years, paid off their home and can sell for a lot of cash to "downsize" to be near their kids & grand kids
2. Who were lucky to inherit their parent's (greatest generation) house and wealth after they passed away. What we've seen here is they typically sell their parent's home and then buy another home elsewhere to be near friends, retired focused communities or move to be near grand kids.

This market is left to themselves and those who have the cash or intestinal fortitude to accept that higher 7% interest rate.

And everyone is hoping for rates to drop and will flood the market to start buying - but I have to caution against that because the Fed is aware and might not be so quick to drop the rates. Because if they do drop them and create a "gold rush" you're going to see the similar trends like the pandemic where people are overpaying and pushing property prices up - which further exacerbates the same issues that caused to hike rates in the first place (at least real estate focused issues - not so much the supply chains)




For those us looking to purchase an investment property, and have the cash to breakeven on the rental income vs. mortgage payment, would now be a good time to get in? Seems like we would have leverage against certain sellers that might be willing to take a lower offer after the property has sat on the market for a month or so.

I would think prices would stay flat while rates are high, then increase again as rates fall toward mid 5's.
I think if you're able to have substantial positive cash flow - it might make sense. But you're going to run into an issue if you can't find a property at the 1% rule (aka monthly rent = 1% of the purchase price) because you'd still be overpaying on a valuation basis. So if you can find those diamonds that have $1500 a month in rent and going to pay $150K for it, do it. Otherwise, you might run into a conundrum where you could get better yield for the cash paid in alternative investments along with captured upside from asset appreciation (i.e. buying Exxon stock which might yield slightly less dividends, but the stock keeps appreciating because Oil goes up). Unless you are sure the property is going to continue to appreciate cause of gentrifying or in demand area which helps your ultimate ROI in addition to the rent generated.

I also don't think you'd be wrong if your intent is to diversify and buy/hold long term a rental for the rent and way to hold the value outside of your overall portfolio. Which could also make sense.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

1% rule (aka monthly rent = 1% of the purchase price) because you'd still be overpaying on a valuation basis. So if you can find those diamonds that have $1500 a month in rent and going to pay $150K for it, do it.

Does this actually exist anymore, outside of the slummiest of slumlord scenarios? I thought it had been gone for 15 years
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

1% rule (aka monthly rent = 1% of the purchase price) because you'd still be overpaying on a valuation basis. So if you can find those diamonds that have $1500 a month in rent and going to pay $150K for it, do it.

Does this actually exist anymore, outside of the slummiest of slumlord scenarios? I thought it had been gone for 15 years
It really doesn't unless you got lucky or were able to build/develop something with a favorable cost basis.

But on a fundamental basis - does it really make sense to pay a 3% cap rate on a SFR when you're leverage is costing you 7%? Or you can obtain an alternative investment yielding you 5%?
ProgN
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Towns03
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ProgN said:


People like me might run to buy oil stocks after reading articles like this only to find out that this news was already 'factored in' to the stock price at the time. easy way to lose 5-10% in a month

thoughts from the pros?
ProgN
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I just posted it to credit Farmer.
Heineken-Ashi
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Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

Charismatic Megafauna said:

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

1% rule (aka monthly rent = 1% of the purchase price) because you'd still be overpaying on a valuation basis. So if you can find those diamonds that have $1500 a month in rent and going to pay $150K for it, do it.

Does this actually exist anymore, outside of the slummiest of slumlord scenarios? I thought it had been gone for 15 years
It really doesn't unless you got lucky or were able to build/develop something with a favorable cost basis.

But on a fundamental basis - does it really make sense to pay a 3% cap rate on a SFR when you're leverage is costing you 7%? Or you can obtain an alternative investment yielding you 5%?
DING DING DING.

The only real way to do it is to buy a distressed property, renovate it QUICKLY, and flip it as fast as you can. But you are competing with thousands of bigger pockets and Grant Cardone clones. If you are finding the asset, you likely aren't the only one. You're going to have to chase 100 deals to land the one. And then you have to perform.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Towns03
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ProgN said:

I just posted it to credit Farmer.


I'm with ya. I'm just looking for the practical application and replaying in my head how it's worked out in the past for me.

Thanks for farmer I rode PR and VLO up for decent gains (cashed out of PR at 13+ and vlo around 130). If there's more upside I want to know about it!
PeekingDuck
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The supply demand gap will combine with IRA subsidies to make stocks like XOM and OXY continue to run, imo. Natural inflation hedge. If I wasn't already heavily invested in well partnerships, I'd certainly have a chunk of money in XOM. OXY set up well too, but I've just heard too much dumb anecdotes about their engineering group to trust them.
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ProgN said:




Found this in the comments too - I think this is incredibly likely because lenders will not help finance O&G capital expenditures and these O&G Companies have had their hands slapped so much since 2015 they are scared to spend free cash flow into potential ventures. It's a perfect storm.

It just makes me more bullish on oil and companies like Pioneer or Apache or other notable drillers.


PeekingDuck
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There is always the caveat that politics can swing price fairly quickly. Hopefully Saudi has learned their lesson. Their last attempt was pretty I'll timed.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Doctor visits yesterday. They told us they got the cancer in surgery. No chemo or radiation needed. Lots of follow up appointments over next 2 years. We take it as a victory. Long day yesterday. Thank you again for your thoughts and prayers. We appreciate it very much.

Between doctor appointments I was watching XOM, oil and CPI. The plunge in XOM made no sense and the build reported by EIA just added to it. I placed an order to buy back the $125 Nov Calls. Pocketed 40 cents. Figured I should not pass up a gift in 24 hours. I'll replace the Call position again, later. ... It appears that the Administration is now asking U.S. Big Oil for help. This is extremely bullish. PreMarket reacting. ..... Regarding the real estate posts above. Look for a Reuters article on hedge funds manipulating Treasuries again that could force a liquidity problem similar to March 2020 - it will align with thoughts posted here. Precarious situation.

Thanks again for your thoughts and prayers.

spud1910
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Great news Farmer! Praying all continues to go well through this journey.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Luke, your comments are spot on. EIA reports show crude as we are "swimming in the stuff". Its all baloney. It's been baloney for many months. Saudi is going to show us the bottom of the barrel. As they said, "whatever it takes." The NYMEX crude oil Futures manipulation is way out of hand and Saudi kept telling anyone who would listen.

EIA continues to portray that we are producing extraordinary amounts of crude weekly but the imbalance is...the EIA supply surplus is not mathematically showing up in inventory as all crude oil inventory locations show declining balances. This Adminstration has really put our country in a bad way. Politics will not turn this situation around. Any turn around from this situation is greater than 9 months down the road. China is coming back strong. Iran got financial assets unfrozen by Blinken for more oil and they arent producing - only laughing at Blinken and Biden. Russia will cut production only because western technology is not onsite to keep those rigs operating. It's a heck of a mess. Green Energy tried to murder Fossil Fuels. Fossil Fuels killed Green Energy in self defense.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Doctor visits yesterday. They told us they got the cancer in surgery. No chemo or radiation needed. Lots of follow up appointments over next 2 years. We take it as a victory. Long day yesterday. Thank you again for your thoughts and prayers. We appreciate it very much.

Between doctor appointments I was watching XOM, oil and CPI. The plunge in XOM made no sense and the build reported by EIA just added to it. I placed an order to buy back the $125 Nov Calls. Pocketed 40 cents. Figured I should not pass up a gift in 24 hours. I'll replace the Call position again, later. ... It appears that the Administration is now asking U.S. Big Oil for help. This is extremely bullish. PreMarket reacting. ..... Regarding the real estate posts above. Look for a Reuters article on hedge funds manipulating Treasuries again that could force a liquidity problem similar to March 2020 - it will align with thoughts posted here. Precarious situation.

Thanks again for your thoughts and prayers.




Great news Farmer! My wife had a similar incident earlier this year and it was absolutely terrifying but we had a similar outcome with it was all contained/removed during surgery. It's a better outcome but still have to be on guard for the next few years and just have to be more mindful regarding your wife's health (and any issues that pop up) for the next few years.

Regarding oil though…


Spoony Love
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Answered prayers brother. I hope things continue getting better.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Great news Farmer!!!
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