Just my .02, I think we will see a volatile market through Dec 2024. I think they'll prop up economy through election (not tryina be political but its the reality imo) but until then the effects of student loan pmts hitting, record credit card debt, and car pmt delinquencies will add serious pressure. My prediction is the pain really starts early 2025 , and 2025 and 2026 will be rough. I don't think it'll be 08 rough (hoping at least) bur it'll be very very noticeable. Recovery starts late 2026.
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Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Fredd said:
Can y'all give examples of these things you're referring to? My curiosity is peaked
Well for one, we haven't been a true market based economy since 2008. We have been a centrally planned Fasco-Marxist economy. You can only do that so long before your currency and treasury are *****
I haven't posted here much on my trades because there haven't been any, but I went short on the majors with 2024 strikes. Those are my only open trades right now.
hopefully piqued too! :-)
rather not say right now... but lots of big cracks developing
rather not say right now... but lots of big cracks developing
I'm not good at charting, but does it look like NVDA is stair stepping upwards with today being a down day in the process?
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Fredd said:
Can y'all give examples of these things you're referring to? My curiosity is peaked
Lots more sellers interested in facing reality and dropping prices to get sales done. Writing is on the wall where they realize it's better to get some equity back via sale then wait and hope for rates to drop so you can hope prices come back.
And when I say more acquisitions - I'm talking about a significant increase of like 40%ish more sellers looking at potential sales in the last 5ish weeks. The hard part is cap rates keep steadily rising and then you wait for a potential buyer to actually execute. And by the time they are ready to execute the sale, rates have risen again and they need to either drum up more equity or pull the sale.
Last thing - Rents aren't shooting sky high anymore. So you're really needing to be on the ball from asset management perspectives. Those that aren't or are halfway through a capex campaign are issuing capital calls left and right. Trouble is in actually pulling in that capital, so a lot of these groups are starting to run on fumes from a capital liquidity factor which I'm sure is raising the sales out there. I think that's more of an antidote that consumers are beginning to get tapped out.
One last thing - it really rustles my Jimmies that family size you see on cereals or cheeze-it's or whatever are being shrunk. That makes me visibly upset and my wife roll her eyes when I go on a rant pointing out the deltas between the bags of goldfish. One positive thing though is I've lost a bit weight cause I'm not eating as much snacks because I see the price at the store and know what "just one more bag of cheese-it's" really costs.
I've been thinking for over a year we were getting ready for a recession, but the can's continuously been kicked down the road. We've got to be getting pretty close though.
Covid money is drying up, Personal debts are soaring, credit card delinquencies are picking up, foreclosures, repos are up…the house of cards is starting to show it's cracks. Guess it'll be interesting to see how long the Fed will continue to prop it up as we approach election season.
Edit: it always amazes me to read about how "Covid money" is drying up for consumers. I just didn't know it was ultimately that big of a windfall for the average family to still have some almost 3 years later. I didn't get one cent of relief, so I guess I've always underestimated it's effect on the average consumer.
Covid money is drying up, Personal debts are soaring, credit card delinquencies are picking up, foreclosures, repos are up…the house of cards is starting to show it's cracks. Guess it'll be interesting to see how long the Fed will continue to prop it up as we approach election season.
Edit: it always amazes me to read about how "Covid money" is drying up for consumers. I just didn't know it was ultimately that big of a windfall for the average family to still have some almost 3 years later. I didn't get one cent of relief, so I guess I've always underestimated it's effect on the average consumer.
I'm with you on the can being kicked down the road. I'm not sure what else they can do to keep kicking it.
It's been dried up for a few years now. That's just a narrative. The middle class that got checks put it in the market and the poor folks for the most part just bought nice **** with it.
Throw in the very real possibility that China attacks Taiwan next year and the wealth destruction that will cause.Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:Fredd said:
Can y'all give examples of these things you're referring to? My curiosity is peaked
Lots more sellers interested in facing reality and dropping prices to get sales done. Writing is on the wall where they realize it's better to get some equity back via sale then wait and hope for rates to drop so you can hope prices come back.
And when I say more acquisitions - I'm talking about a significant increase of like 40%ish more sellers looking at potential sales in the last 5ish weeks. The hard part is cap rates keep steadily rising and then you wait for a potential buyer to actually execute. And by the time they are ready to execute the sale, rates have risen again and they need to either drum up more equity or pull the sale.
Last thing - Rents aren't shooting sky high anymore. So you're really needing to be on the ball from asset management perspectives. Those that aren't or are halfway through a capex campaign are issuing capital calls left and right. Trouble is in actually pulling in that capital, so a lot of these groups are starting to run on fumes from a capital liquidity factor which I'm sure is raising the sales out there. I think that's more of an antidote that consumers are beginning to get tapped out.
One last thing - it really rustles my Jimmies that family size you see on cereals or cheeze-it's or whatever are being shrunk. That makes me visibly upset and my wife roll her eyes when I go on a rant pointing out the deltas between the bags of goldfish. One positive thing though is I've lost a bit weight cause I'm not eating as much snacks because I see the price at the store and know what "just one more bag of cheese-it's" really costs.
HoustonAg2014 said:
It's been dried up for a few years now. That's just a narrative. The middle class that got checks put it in the market and the poor folks for the most part just bought nice **** with it.
Anyone with an LLC could basically write off all employee wages so they used that to buy hard assets or invest in the markets. Crazy how much was allotted to this and just handed over.
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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A couple of options I hope to enter into Tues morning assuming the price is right...
SPLNK P Sep 29 $125
GOGO C Nov 17 $10
Good luck to all this coming week.
SPLNK P Sep 29 $125
GOGO C Nov 17 $10
Good luck to all this coming week.
Quote:
SPLNK
I'm just going to assume this is a cave exploration company.
Where is everybody?
(Just thought I'd break the ice)
(Just thought I'd break the ice)
We live on a tax farm as free range humans.
XOM making it over 115. ome on $120
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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Props to Heineken dude. I bought 8 Ps on GE this morning at open it zipped up +28% , I sold 4, holding 4.
irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:She was ready!irish pete ag06 said:
She looks ready
Also, to update my compadres on here on the career switch. I used to coach, 16 years worth, jumped into financial advising last year with an insurance emphasis. Didn't take me long to figure out 2 things. I wanted to work in property and casualty insurance and I wanted to be my own boss. So I'm opening a Rollo Insurance branch in the small town I live near. Hence the reason for no trading time, lol. I am working in season football coaching hours right now to get this thing rolling.
I need a cigarette.
Took more profit today. This has been my best trade of 2023.
irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:She was ready!irish pete ag06 said:
She looks ready
Also, to update my compadres on here on the career switch. I used to coach, 16 years worth, jumped into financial advising last year with an insurance emphasis. Didn't take me long to figure out 2 things. I wanted to work in property and casualty insurance and I wanted to be my own boss. So I'm opening a Rollo Insurance branch in the small town I live near. Hence the reason for no trading time, lol. I am working in season football coaching hours right now to get this thing rolling.
I need a cigarette.
Took more profit today. This has been my best trade of 2023.
Still very much learning, did you short this?
Found you!Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:
Props to Heineken dude. I bought 8 Ps on GE this morning at open it zipped up +28% , I sold 4, holding 4.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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Heineken-Ashi said:Found you!Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:
Props to Heineken dude. I bought 8 Ps on GE this morning at open it zipped up +28% , I sold 4, holding 4.
lol
No sir. I should have zoomed in more. I longed this a while back.Jimmy Conway said:irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:She was ready!irish pete ag06 said:
She looks ready
Also, to update my compadres on here on the career switch. I used to coach, 16 years worth, jumped into financial advising last year with an insurance emphasis. Didn't take me long to figure out 2 things. I wanted to work in property and casualty insurance and I wanted to be my own boss. So I'm opening a Rollo Insurance branch in the small town I live near. Hence the reason for no trading time, lol. I am working in season football coaching hours right now to get this thing rolling.
I need a cigarette.
Took more profit today. This has been my best trade of 2023.
Still very much learning, did you short this?
Here's a look.
I longed it at circle #1 (8/21 EMA was positive, it's mainly what I trade, I'm a simple man)
Sold some at circle #2 when it peaked over a long term trend line.
Sole more today at #3
Still holding some more, because I don't think oil is done.
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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irish pete ag06 said:No sir. I should have zoomed in more. I longed this a while back.Jimmy Conway said:irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:She was ready!irish pete ag06 said:
She looks ready
Also, to update my compadres on here on the career switch. I used to coach, 16 years worth, jumped into financial advising last year with an insurance emphasis. Didn't take me long to figure out 2 things. I wanted to work in property and casualty insurance and I wanted to be my own boss. So I'm opening a Rollo Insurance branch in the small town I live near. Hence the reason for no trading time, lol. I am working in season football coaching hours right now to get this thing rolling.
I need a cigarette.
Took more profit today. This has been my best trade of 2023.
Still very much learning, did you short this?
Here's a look.
I longed it at circle #1 (8/21 EMA was positive, it's mainly what I trade, I'm a simple man)
Sold some at circle #2 when it peaked over a long term trend line.
Sole more today at #3
Still holding some more, because I don't think oil is done.
Speaking of oil any thoughts on NBR?
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:
A couple of options I hope to enter into Tues morning assuming the price is right...
SPLNK P Sep 29 $125
GOGO C Nov 17 $10
Good luck to all this coming week.
Anyone else move on this? Up 63% this morning. Peeling off half as profit, holding the rest a little longer.
Edit, up 87% now.
RIP Chilifest and his OSTK
ASAN getting smoked on EPS miss.
irish pete ag06 said:No sir. I should have zoomed in more. I longed this a while back.Jimmy Conway said:irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:irish pete ag06 said:She was ready!irish pete ag06 said:
She looks ready
Also, to update my compadres on here on the career switch. I used to coach, 16 years worth, jumped into financial advising last year with an insurance emphasis. Didn't take me long to figure out 2 things. I wanted to work in property and casualty insurance and I wanted to be my own boss. So I'm opening a Rollo Insurance branch in the small town I live near. Hence the reason for no trading time, lol. I am working in season football coaching hours right now to get this thing rolling.
I need a cigarette.
Took more profit today. This has been my best trade of 2023.
Still very much learning, did you short this?
Here's a look.
I longed it at circle #1 (8/21 EMA was positive, it's mainly what I trade, I'm a simple man)
Sold some at circle #2 when it peaked over a long term trend line.
Sole more today at #3
Still holding some more, because I don't think oil is done.
Thank you!
Inverse Cup/Handle on the 30min SPY chart
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Yw. Make a bunch of money.
I haven't been posting much, but not anotlot has changed. XOM going to print cash in Q3 & Q4. They are hugging the alternative energy platform in a very economical but profitable way and keeps the fossil fuel haters in line. Saudi will likely extend cuts through Sep. EIA will eventually give up publishing what I call "bogus numbers" and true supply will reflect a real shortage in 23H2 and 2024. China and India are ramping demand, regardless of how the MSM downplays it. Baker Hughes Weekly is telling us U.S. oil rigs continue to decline. NatGas will rebound this winter (I'm going out on a limb cuz I usually stay away from NatGas discussion). Pump prices will continue to move up. Energy looks good and solid for a long time to come. Just get long a good energy stock if you haven't already. XOM:PXD spread was $120 today early. Below $95 add PXD. Above $95 add XOM. It was & it's been screaming to add XOM. The spreads have been very disjointed for 3 to 4 weeks now. They'll get back in line. XOM, IMO, was targeted and pricing pressure applied for quite a number of trading days. Today, Shorts were covering. ~19 million volume at the Closing Bell and ~24 million volume at 15 minutes after the Close...an adjustment of 4.8 million. That's big. The XOM stock buyback is approximately 40 million shares a quarter or 1% of the company (4.0 billion outstanding). That's buying back 1% of the company every quarter! Next quarter there will be a dividend increase announced. Just many many good things going on in this solid company. My most SWAG is that WTI and Brent go spread neutral "0" this year. My best speculation is, XOM gets reinstated to the Dow 30 for 2024. My techie related guess is, if XOM would say they were goin to use AI for some energy project the stock would zoom to $200 a share in a flash.
Like I wrote, I haven't been posting and will not be posting for the foreseeable future. Mrs. Farmer got the cancer. We think we got it identified early and going after it. We should know some more by the end of August. In the meantime y'all make a bunch of money. Everyday you gotta give it hell because it's your only chance on earth. Later. Mooo!
Farmer, hope you are doing ok. Miss your contributions on here, but more importantly hoping things are going well with Mrs Farmer's battle.
Yeah, praying for you both Farmer.
GreasenUSA said:Must not be showing split adjusted data. AMC hit this spot 3 times in 2020 and once more at the beginning of 2021. It's probably due a bounce from here, but it's done after that. Look for the bounce soon, and then short when it breaks back below.Brian Earl Spilner said:
AMC hasn't touched this level since before 2014. (The max period shown on yahoo.)
Looks like it had one more down day after this post before the bounce. The trade to the long side was always the trickier trade, as it would be tough to manage risk - but if you took the safest entry point once it bottomed, you still saw a chance at 18% from 8/30-8/31.
The trade through the 10.72 low today was absolutely tremendous, though. 21% straight down in a single day. Very nice…this could enter a multi-week down cycle now. With the share issuance spiral started today, I would guess we likely see a Chapter 11 in the coming year.
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Think I'm buying aapl with reckless abandon if it fills the 5/5 gap to 167ish
QCOM at $100-$105 range is a buy. Draw a line from the 11/3/22 bottom to the 5/25/23 bottom and make sure it carries forward. That's your lower support and you place your stop just below. If it breaks below, delete the ticker from your watchlist until November at the earliest. Also draw a line from the 2/1/23 top to the 7/31/23 top and carry it forward. That line is your target, and you should be out with 50% of your position at $115. This is a share buying opportunity unless you are willing to buy ATM calls at least 3-4 months out and sell 75% after the first move. I wouldn't recommend it as this timeline can be anywhere from October to March. And with calls, you lose the safety of an easy stop and have to watch intently and manage the stop manually.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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Why not buy puts here then to get you down that range and make some $ and then turn around and take the gains to buy some shares?Charismatic Megafauna said:
Think I'm buying aapl with reckless abandon if it fills the 5/5 gap to 167ish
I'm following. Thank you!Heineken-Ashi said:
QCOM at $100-$105 range is a buy. Draw a line from the 11/3/22 bottom to the 5/25/23 bottom and make sure it carries forward. That's your lower support and you place your stop just below. If it breaks below, delete the ticker from your watchlist until November at the earliest. Also draw a line from the 2/1/23 top to the 7/31/23 top and carry it forward. That line is your target, and you should be out with 50% of your position at $115. This is a share buying opportunity unless you are willing to buy ATM calls at least 3-4 months out and sell 75% after the first move. I wouldn't recommend it as this timeline can be anywhere from October to March. And with calls, you lose the safety of an easy stop and have to watch intently and manage the stop manually.
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Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:Why not buy puts here then to get you down that range and make some $ and then turn around and take the gains to buy some shares?Charismatic Megafauna said:
Think I'm buying aapl with reckless abandon if it fills the 5/5 gap to 167ish
Because I'm not confident that it will fill the gap, but I am confident that it will recover if it does, so I'm not going to fomo the put play and I'm not gonna be upset if i never get my entry, and try to convince myself that this is how a mature, responsible trader works and I'm not just a puss
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