Thanks for all that you contribute here, Farmer! I'll be praying for you and your wife. My wife and I are going through the cancer struggle with her dad right now, and it sucks mightily. I pray that she can whip it!
Stock Markets
25,671,190 Views |
234867 Replies |
Last: 4 hrs ago by zgolfz85
Money market right now. The markets are WAY overextended and will pullback, so I'd keep my powder dry and wait for better entry prices on good companies.TXAGGIES said:
Hey guys, kind of new to trading other than mu 401k, SARs, RSUs etc.
I am trying to diversify away from all the stock in my current company so sold the majority of my SARs at a nice value.
If you had $100k where would you put it if you don't want to trade daily? Just a hedge fund or some specific industry?
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
8,034
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
GreasenUSA said:Potential for trend day DOWN in many markets after NR7s, 3 bar triangles and gap down in overnight session(metals currencies index futures)..Oh yes, and a full moon tonight to boot!
— Linda Raschke (@LindaRaschke) August 1, 2023
I'm reading her book, Trading Sardines, currently. Very entertaining so far.
I tend to listen when she makes statements like this. That said, the bears have generally been no match for the bulls this year, so I'll believe it when I see it.
Yeah baby!
Hey Farmer, I don't believe in coincidences and this article appears the day after your family here started praying for your bride.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12360701/Potential-cancer-breakthrough-groundbreaking-pill-annihilates-types-solid-tumors-early-study.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12360701/Potential-cancer-breakthrough-groundbreaking-pill-annihilates-types-solid-tumors-early-study.html
Praying for you and your bride, pal. May God lay His hand on her and those blessing her with their service and skills.
What are y'all's thoughts on oxy? The chart looks bullish and I'm thinking about using todays dip to enter a call option.
You and your wife hang in there, farmer. If you are half as valuable helping her out as you are helping us out here, y'all will have this **** kicked in no time.
What is going on with LABU?
This might be very helpful for this board:Anastasia Beaverhaven said:
What is going on with LABU?
Do a chart for LABU, then do one for LABD - any time period will do.
Compare them.
Do you notice anything striking?
It's a classic lose-lose situation. DO NOT INVEST IN TRIPLE-LEVERAGED ETFS!!! If you have a situation where you need to trade them with a holding period of less than a week, proceed if you must. But they are not buy-and-hold investments. (I learned this the hard way over 10 years ago, and speak from experience). [/End of rant].
Prayers for you and your wife, farmer.
So which one of you invested in Tupperware? Only up 700% in 2 weeks.
I bleed maroon said:
It's a classic lose-lose situation. DO NOT INVEST IN TRIPLE-LEVERAGED ETFS!!! If you have a situation where you need to trade them with a holding period of less than a week, proceed if you must. But they are not buy-and-hold investments. (I learned this the hard way over 10 years ago, and speak from experience). [/End of rant].
I think TQQQ, UPRO, TNA, and to a lesser extent SOXL are pretty solid for swing trading if you are patient, but also quick to take profit.
Sorry, but I cannot agree with this.Brian Earl Spilner said:
I think TQQQ, UPRO, TNA, and to a lesser extent SOXL are pretty solid for swing trading if you are patient, but also quick to take profit.
Patience is, in fact, what can kill you with these. And they are definitely not "solid".
Hypothetical: You buy them with a premise, and when it doesn't happen quickly, you can convince yourself that the premise was correct, leading you to double down and/or wait till the inevitable windfall. In the meantime, decay eats you alive, and before you know it, you're left holding trash.
Actual: The hypothetical was me, over a decade ago, "investing" in BGU (now defunct due to its' horrific track record), TNA and others.
Several Years Later Me: Well, since decay gets you eventually, why not buy puts on these (such as on TQQQ)? Tried it repeatedly, with no decent results (largely a result of these being very thinly traded and difficulty in timing exits).
This is personal experience, with empirical data. Yes, I made some huge wins on occasion (including lucky timing on some puts right before COVID), but it's like the gambler who "wins" jackpots of $5000 and $10,000 on a Vegas trip and brags to his friends, but actually lost over $20,000 for the trip.
My opinion: Just say no (unless you are hedging something else for a period of no more than a few days).
Not too late for either of thoseChilifest said:Not looking at charts, derivatives, etc. I have heard they are about to pop. Earnings for AESI tomorrow. I think SMMT is on 8/8.gougler08 said:What are you seeing on those charts?Chilifest said:
AESI & SMMT. Load
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
May 22, 2017
Posts:
8,034
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Vale flattening out on a pretty good support level, buying shares here (and holding through 40c divvy aug 14)
Bout to cash in on some of my 2020 gambling err, covid investments.
For now, just hold as cash, or roll into money markets and look for S&P 500 drop before re-upping in SPY, VTI etc?
For now, just hold as cash, or roll into money markets and look for S&P 500 drop before re-upping in SPY, VTI etc?
Consider averaging in - investing equal amounts monthly, for 6-12+ months. You can easily overthink the timing and miss out on potential gains.Cromagnum said:
Bout to cash in on some of my 2020gamblingerr, covid investments.
For now, just hold as cash, or roll into money markets and look for S&P 500 drop before re-upping in SPY, VTI etc?
I bleed maroon said:Sorry, but I cannot agree with this.Brian Earl Spilner said:
I think TQQQ, UPRO, TNA, and to a lesser extent SOXL are pretty solid for swing trading if you are patient, but also quick to take profit.
Patience is, in fact, what can kill you with these. And they are definitely not "solid".
Hypothetical: You buy them with a premise, and when it doesn't happen quickly, you can convince yourself that the premise was correct, leading you to double down and/or wait till the inevitable windfall. In the meantime, decay eats you alive, and before you know it, you're left holding trash.
Actual: The hypothetical was me, over a decade ago, "investing" in BGU (now defunct due to its' horrific track record), TNA and others.
Several Years Later Me: Well, since decay gets you eventually, why not buy puts on these (such as on TQQQ)? Tried it repeatedly, with no decent results (largely a result of these being very thinly traded and difficulty in timing exits).
This is personal experience, with empirical data. Yes, I made some huge wins on occasion (including lucky timing on some puts right before COVID), but it's like the gambler who "wins" jackpots of $5000 and $10,000 on a Vegas trip and brags to his friends, but actually lost over $20,000 for the trip.
My opinion: Just say no (unless you are hedging something else for a period of no more than a few days).
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/01/fitch-downgrades-us-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa.html
Quote:
Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S.'s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ from AAA, pointing to "expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years," as well as a growing general debt burden.
Back in May, the agency placed the nation's AAA rating on negative watch, blaming the debt ceiling fight. At the time, lawmakers in Washington butted heads over an agreement that would keep the federal government from running out of money. President Joe Biden signed the debt ceiling bill on June 2, just days away from the so-called "X-date" on June 5.
The country's recent debt limit feud was mentioned again in the downgrade.
"In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025," the ratings agency said.
"The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management," Fitch said.
The agency also highlighted the rising general government deficit, which it anticipates will rise to 6.3% of gross domestic product in 2023, from 3.7% in 2022. "Cuts to non-defense discretionary spending (15% of total federal spending) as agreed in the Fiscal Responsibility Act offer only a modest improvement to the medium-term fiscal outlook," Fitch said.
The agency also noted that a combination of tightening credit conditions, weakening business investment and a slowdown in consumption could lead the economy into a "mild" recession in the fourth quarter of 2023 and first quarter of next year.
Farmer, I am incredibly sorry to hear about your wife. I am praying for you and your family. Kick it's ass!
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I read your whole post and no offense, but all I took away from that was "My ego is too big to take a loss".
If your ego is too big to take losses, then no, you shouldn't trade LABU, BOIL, TQQQ, FAZ, or any of them. Part 2 is risk management. Putting 5% of your portfolio in something and accepting either a 20% gain or loss on it is a net 1% impact, which is how it should be done.
If your ego is too big to take losses, then no, you shouldn't trade LABU, BOIL, TQQQ, FAZ, or any of them. Part 2 is risk management. Putting 5% of your portfolio in something and accepting either a 20% gain or loss on it is a net 1% impact, which is how it should be done.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I read your whole post and no offense, but all I took away from that was "My ego is too big to take a loss".
If your ego is too big to take losses, then no, you shouldn't trade LABU, BOIL, TQQQ, FAZ, or any of them. Part 2 is risk management. Putting 5% of your portfolio in something and accepting either a 20% gain or loss on it is a net 1% impact, which is how it should be done.
Talk about an ego! Pot, meet kettle.
Just kidding - I mostly like your posts, but you get on a high horse at times that it's two choices: your way or the wrong way.
There are many trading philosophies and methods, along with varying risk tolerances. It's good to share ideas among us, and past experiences, both good and bad, should be shared, as well. Except for those who apparently have never made a bad trade, or have the perfect system that everyone should emulate.
No offense, of course.
Be careful. 30k is well respected on this thread. This is your only warning.
OK - change my prior post to:Triple_Bagger said:
Be careful. 30k is well respected on this thread. This is your only warning.
"With all due respect...".
We're all just sharing ideas here - no one has yet cornered the market on how to make money or keep your money. I follow this thread intermittently, and agree that $30k brings some great ideas to the table.
Seasonality article from daily update I get from IBKR.
https://ibkrcampus.com/traders-insight/securities/stocks/beware-the-ides-of-august/
https://ibkrcampus.com/traders-insight/securities/stocks/beware-the-ides-of-august/
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Oh boy…. Decided to catch up on the board and…well……
This board was created to help people. There are a number of Pros that post here. Pros.
30k is one of them.
This board was created to help people. There are a number of Pros that post here. Pros.
30k is one of them.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
You all are way too kind.
I take losses all the time. I took an L on NVDA today.
Everyone has systems. The systems have to work, though. Bad risk management is what blows up trading accounts. I know this because I have blown up. The key thing is I came back.
Bad risk management is two things in my opinion:
1) ego. Not being willing to be wrong and being afraid to take an L. This includes averaging down. There is generally no trade plan when this happens. "I think nat gas should go up because I feel it should".
2) failing to think about what you can lose and sizing accordingly. Max overnight risk on a triple leveraged index ETF is 15% (limit down open). I size for that possibility.
I take losses all the time. I took an L on NVDA today.
Everyone has systems. The systems have to work, though. Bad risk management is what blows up trading accounts. I know this because I have blown up. The key thing is I came back.
Bad risk management is two things in my opinion:
1) ego. Not being willing to be wrong and being afraid to take an L. This includes averaging down. There is generally no trade plan when this happens. "I think nat gas should go up because I feel it should".
2) failing to think about what you can lose and sizing accordingly. Max overnight risk on a triple leveraged index ETF is 15% (limit down open). I size for that possibility.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Taking the L is the hardest thing I continually struggle with. What do you feel like you did that helped change that aspect of trading for you mentally?
Just realize that there's always another trade.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I can literally close that trade and open a new one immediately
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I also had to realize losses are inevitable and the point when they happen is to minimize the damage. If you win 7/10, keep the losses on the 3 small.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
It may help you to have a plan up front. "If this happens, sell" both good and bad.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Good thoughts. Happy trading, everybody!