TXAGGIES said:

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Hey guys, kind of new to trading other than mu 401k, SARs, RSUs etc.

I am trying to diversify away from all the stock in my current company so sold the majority of my SARs at a nice value.

If you had $100k where would you put it if you don't want to trade daily? Just a hedge fund or some specific industry?

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GreasenUSA said:

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Potential for trend day DOWN in many markets after NR7s, 3 bar triangles and gap down in overnight session(metals currencies index futures)..Oh yes, and a full moon tonight to boot!

— Linda Raschke (@LindaRaschke) August 1, 2023

I'm reading her book, Trading Sardines, currently. Very entertaining so far.

I tend to listen when she makes statements like this. That said, the bears have generally been no match for the bulls this year, so I'll believe it when I see it.

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Chilifest said:

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gougler08 said:

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Chilifest said:

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AESI & SMMT. Load

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What are you seeing on those charts?

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Not looking at charts, derivatives, etc. I have heard they are about to pop. Earnings for AESI tomorrow. I think SMMT is on 8/8.

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Cromagnum said:

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Bout to cash in on some of my 2020 gambling err, covid investments.

For now, just hold as cash, or roll into money markets and look for S&P 500 drop before re-upping in SPY, VTI etc?

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I bleed maroon said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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I think TQQQ, UPRO, TNA, and to a lesser extent SOXL are pretty solid for swing trading if you are patient, but also quick to take profit.

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Sorry, but I cannot agree with this.

Patience is, in fact, what can kill you with these. And they are definitely not "solid".

Hypothetical: You buy them with a premise, and when it doesn't happen quickly, you can convince yourself that the premise was correct, leading you to double down and/or wait till the inevitable windfall. In the meantime, decay eats you alive, and before you know it, you're left holding trash.

Actual: The hypothetical was me, over a decade ago, "investing" in BGU (now defunct due to its' horrific track record), TNA and others.

Several Years Later Me: Well, since decay gets you eventually, why not buy puts on these (such as on TQQQ)? Tried it repeatedly, with no decent results (largely a result of these being very thinly traded and difficulty in timing exits).

This is personal experience, with empirical data. Yes, I made some huge wins on occasion (including lucky timing on some puts right before COVID), but it's like the gambler who "wins" jackpots of $5000 and $10,000 on a Vegas trip and brags to his friends, but actually lost over $20,000 for the trip.

My opinion: Just say no (unless you are hedging something else for a period of no more than a few days).

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Quote:

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Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S.'s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ from AAA, pointing to "expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years," as well as a growing general debt burden.

Back in May, the agency placed the nation's AAA rating on negative watch, blaming the debt ceiling fight. At the time, lawmakers in Washington butted heads over an agreement that would keep the federal government from running out of money. President Joe Biden signed the debt ceiling bill on June 2, just days away from the so-called "X-date" on June 5.

The country's recent debt limit feud was mentioned again in the downgrade.

"In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025," the ratings agency said.

"The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management," Fitch said.

The agency also highlighted the rising general government deficit, which it anticipates will rise to 6.3% of gross domestic product in 2023, from 3.7% in 2022. "Cuts to non-defense discretionary spending (15% of total federal spending) as agreed in the Fiscal Responsibility Act offer only a modest improvement to the medium-term fiscal outlook," Fitch said.

The agency also noted that a combination of tightening credit conditions, weakening business investment and a slowdown in consumption could lead the economy into a "mild" recession in the fourth quarter of 2023 and first quarter of next year.

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